Dorial Green-Beckham ... up in smoke

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Swampdonkey17
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Re: Dorial Green-Beckham ... up in smoke

Postby Swampdonkey17 » Sat Jan 17, 2015 10:07 am

To add on to that, you make it sound like all you gotta do is wait a year and pay less. But at the same time youre saying you're not expecting an ideal situation. Anyone drafting him knows this, and will draft him thinking it might take a couple years.
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DonBrazi
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Re: Dorial Green-Beckham ... up in smoke

Postby DonBrazi » Sat Jan 17, 2015 1:29 pm

Swampdonkey17 wrote:I'm not annointing him the next AJ Green by any means, but he has been compared ALOT to him. You think Dalton is that much better than Smith? Smith may not be a stud QB, but I don't exactly see him have the weapons to throw to.I know the dude doesn;t like to throw bombs, but I'm still ok holding on to a player being compared to Green to develop. Bowe is a shell of himself and I'm pretty sure the rest of their WR's are on my WW. Chicken or the egg argument.
May very well be a chicken/egg kinda thing. But I'd point to what each guy did before Smith arrived in KC. Bowe had three thousand yard seasons (with one 15 TD season) from 2008 to 2011. In 2012, he had a long holdout and ended up getting hurt. Not that it's an excuse, but I'm sure it contributed to his measly 800 yards the year before Smith arrived. Alex Smith, in San Fran, NEVER had a 1,000 yard receiver*. And yah, he might not have had the best receivers in the world, but he had an old Isaac Bruce, a young Michael Crabtree**, and Brandon Lloyd.. You gotta think there was a 1,000 yard season in there somewhere to be had.

I'd 100% agree that it's not a scientific survey, but it looks to me like the problem player is pretty obvious.. And yes, I'd take Dalton (well) over Smith in terms of supporting a top flight receiver. Again, I love DGB more than just about anybody. But Alex Smith would definitely be a drain on his early production and value.
Swampdonkey17 wrote:To add on to that, you make it sound like all you gotta do is wait a year and pay less. But at the same time youre saying you're not expecting an ideal situation. Anyone drafting him knows this, and will draft him thinking it might take a couple years.
I wouldn't say 'anyone'... but point taken. However, I do think the odds are greater that people bail early and fall for the shiny new toy. I'd guess that it happens more often than not. Yah, it'd be a guess. But I think a rather good guess. There are more Bishop Sankeys (guys who lose value without producing right away) than there are Cordarelle Patterson's (guys who maintain or gain value without producing right away), in my very very unresearched opinion.

*Vernon Davis did have a couple 900+ yard seasons.
**Crabtree blew up as soon as Smith was benched.
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ConnSKINS26
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Re: Dorial Green-Beckham ... up in smoke

Postby ConnSKINS26 » Sat Jan 17, 2015 11:25 pm

Listen guys, I'm already a DGB owner in a devy league, so I have a vested interest.

But the outlook on these forums of his talent is really, really rosy.

He's not a perfect prospect if you set aside the off-field stuff, guys. Not even necessarily a great one. His agility is questionable, his YAC ability is questionable and other than a play or two where he drives his legs through weak tackles on the highlights everyone has seen, it's hard to find film of him actually getting YAC. Which is fine, that's not really his game. He's 6'6" and he was just perfecting his high pointing skills before he got booted from the team.

That doesn't change that 75% of his highlights (and it's hard to find anything other than highlights) consist of him catching deep balls behind college defenses or skying for four TD's over the same crappy 5'9" college CB in the same game.

Hey, he could be an absolute stud. His production was increasing at an acceptable rate year to year for a great prospect if he kept playing, his big plays pass the eye test. But he is no can't-miss prospect even if you ignore the off-field stuff. I think we need to temper our expectations here.

I think it's one of three things:

1. He doesn't have the body of work available to us on tape to prove he's a complete WR.
or
2. He's not a complete WR, but can vastly improve because of his ceiling.
or
3. His "ceiling" is more a construct of the draftnik/dynasty community's collective hopes for another Calvin, inflated by his recognizable name and pedigree as a famous recruit, than any real potential to be an elite WR1. Maybe rather than Calvin or Moss or Green or even Evans, he's a taller Jon Baldwin (tall, straight line, minimal short area quickness and get-off ability, disappointing hands in comparison to his highlight reel).

We just don't have the tape to know for sure, it's tough to find anything other than highlights and his big game vs. Kentucky. Mike Evans mainly broke out his last year in school, and yet we had TONS more tape of him doing the types of things people freely attribute to DGB, plus a ton more ability to work the sideline and work back toward the QB. Maybe if DGB had played another year, and being higher profile and draft eligible, we'd have the tape to know for sure and he would have proven to be what many are saying he already is. But we can't know that.

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Re: Dorial Green-Beckham ... up in smoke

Postby rubber_duck » Fri Jan 30, 2015 9:33 am

ConnSkins, I like your post. It helps to bring some clarity to the analysis of this kid. My current take on DGB is very negative. To be honest, I removed DGB from my Google Alerts long before he transferred to Oklahoma. Whether or not he has kept his nose clean since then ... I have no idea.

First, he has missed an entire year of football. That does nothing to improve his outlook for the NFL and limits us to 2013 game film.

Second, DGB has a lengthy history of trouble ... criminal and otherwise. I am not aware that he as shown any ability to behave in a civil manner. He currently projects the same type of career path as Maurice Clarett and/or Titus Young.

Third, he decided to pass on any additional college play and enter the NFL. For me, this decision is the nail in the coffin. What this tells me is that DGB considers his market value to be at a peak right now ... hasn't played in over a year and has a history of trouble. This is his high point? If the kid had any confidence in his own ability to stay clean, then he would play another year in college. He is at Oklahoma for crying out loud! It is not as if he would be taking the Josh Gordon road through some unknown school.

I'm certain some dysfunctional or desperate NFL front office will spend a draft pick on him. Not me, though. Thanks anyway, DGB. I hope I'm wrong and things work out for you.


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