Help Explaining College Dominator Stat Flaws

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Help Explaining College Dominator Stat Flaws

Postby jonesmaster » Wed Sep 25, 2019 2:41 pm

I understand the formula to be how much of the market of receiving yards and TDs a player had in the total passing offense of his team. I believe, the ideal number you're looking for is 30%. Of course, there are some players who won't make it to that number, or eclipse that number and don't succeed.

This is a very popular stat I see constantly, and many analysts champion it as having huge predictive value. Im not very familiar with it, but would there be some obvious problems with using this as a predictor of success e.g:

(1) Air Raid teams will make it harder for any one player to break 30, while smaller schools with one elite player can easily eclipse it;
(2) Teams that have more than one exceptional WR (e.g. Clemson over the last few years, Ole Miss in 2019, and Alabma in 2020), each WR would have a low dominator stat

maybe im not fully understanding, but im hoping the stat wizards can come in with an explanation
8-team SF / 0.5 PPR / TE (PPR) Scoring: 1QB, 3WR, 2RB, 2FLX, 1 SFLX, 1TE, 1D/ST, K

QB: Dak , Wilson , Cousins, Mac
RB: JT , Barkley , Chubb, Gibson, Gus Edwards, McKissic, Dillon, Singletary, Gaskin
WR: AJB , Godwin , Lamb , Julio, Sutton, OBJ, Deebo, Aiyuk, Hamler, TY
TE: Waller , Engram, Irv
D/ST: BAL

Picks: 2022: 2 1sts

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Re: Help Explaining College Dominator Stat Flaws

Postby M-Dub » Wed Sep 25, 2019 3:00 pm

The issues you bring up aren’t necessarily flaws with the metric as much as examples of why you shouldn’t ever just rely on one metric to tell the whole story. If you drafted Ashton Dulin in the 2nd round of your rookie draft because of his gaudy 60.9% CD rating, while completely ignoring that he posted that at Malone and went undrafted in the NFL draft, that’s not a fault of the CD metric as much as it is of you not being able to contextualize it. It’s an important metric that provides useful information, but it’s just one of many that you should be using to evaluate prospects. Some might be more predictive of success than others, but none are predictive enough to disregard all the others.
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WR: Godwin, Golladay, Lamb, Woods, Crowder, Slayton, Sammy, Cephus, Quez
TE: L. Thomas, Jarwin, Ertz
Taxi: McFarland, Joe Reed

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QB: Dak, Ryan, Baker
RB: CMC, Sanders, Mixon, Dobbins, Ito
WR: Lockett, Chark, Viska, Kirk, Perriman, Patrick, Coutee, Isabella, J. Grant, Coulter
TE: Hockenson, OJH, Warring
Taxi: Hurts, Duvernay, Cephus

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RB: Montgomery $38/2, CEH $26/4, Vaughn $9/3
WR: DJM $43/2, Golladay $42/1, Sutton $17/1, Mims $6/4, Edwards $3/4, Hamler $2/2, Collins $3/?, Schwartz $2/?
TE: Waller $5/1, Hock $20/3, Trautman $2/4

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Re: Help Explaining College Dominator Stat Flaws

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed Sep 25, 2019 5:38 pm

When I was doing my draft research I saw Hollywood Brown had a below-average college dominator, which is a red flag. However, I then went and looked at his raw stats and saw he amassed over 1300 yards and 10 tds his last season. So then it becomes a bit silly to put as much emphasis on his dominator ranking. I do think the stat overall is a great tool though and I put a lot of stock into it. You just have to use a little common sense basically.

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Re: Help Explaining College Dominator Stat Flaws

Postby jonesmaster » Wed Sep 25, 2019 5:47 pm

Using a player like DK for example. Is the fact that he had an average dominator (despite having AJ brown on the team) and the low TD numbers in his final season big reasons why everyone predicted him a bust?
8-team SF / 0.5 PPR / TE (PPR) Scoring: 1QB, 3WR, 2RB, 2FLX, 1 SFLX, 1TE, 1D/ST, K

QB: Dak , Wilson , Cousins, Mac
RB: JT , Barkley , Chubb, Gibson, Gus Edwards, McKissic, Dillon, Singletary, Gaskin
WR: AJB , Godwin , Lamb , Julio, Sutton, OBJ, Deebo, Aiyuk, Hamler, TY
TE: Waller , Engram, Irv
D/ST: BAL

Picks: 2022: 2 1sts

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Re: Help Explaining College Dominator Stat Flaws

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed Sep 25, 2019 5:49 pm

jonesmaster wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 5:47 pm
Using a player like DK for example. Is the fact that he had an average dominator (despite having AJ brown on the team) and the low TD numbers in his final season big reasons why everyone predicted him a bust?
No, people were focused mainly on the 3-cone, but also limited route tree, and he was out-produced (at least raw stats) by AJ Brown. Don't really think it had anything to do with the college dominator.

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Re: Help Explaining College Dominator Stat Flaws

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Wed Sep 25, 2019 6:47 pm

It matters big time IMO...

Theres a thread that gives 10 years of data to support the following:
If a player does not score >50th percentile in breakout age AND >25.0 in Dominator Rating, there is a 92% chance that athlete will not be a top 24wr.

Almost every exception to that rule has a >25.0 Dominator Rating but misses on Breakout Age.

There is only 1 ever who missed on both and had a top 24 season. Tyreek Hill.

I wouldn't even draft a player who doesn't have >25 Dominator Rating
12 team PPR, 1QB, No negative points, all TDs 6
Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex
QB: Murray, Hurts, Lock, M Jones
RB: Barkley, J. Taylor, Dobbins, Mixon, Jav Williams
WR: T. Hill, Metcalf, Diggs, Godwin, Sutton, D Smith, Crowder, Gallup, P. Williams, Isabella
TE: Hockenson, Henry, Sample, Gray
K: McPherson
TD: PIT
Picks: 2022 3, 2023 1, 2023, 2, 2023 3

12 team PPR 1QB
Start 1QB, 1-2 RB, 2-4WRs, 1-2 TEs
QB: Brady, Darnold, Bridgewater, Hurts (TS), Lock (TS), Stidham (TS)
RB: Taylor, Dobbins, Mixon, Ahmed (TS)
WR: Diggs, Hopkins, DJM, Sutton, Higgins, Crowder, Gallup, P. Williams (TS), JJAW (TS), Isabella (TS)
TE: I Smith, Henry, Sample (TS)
K:
DEF: BUF, LAR
Picks: 1.04, 1.06, 1.07, 2.01, 4.04, 4.06, 2022 4th, 2022 5th, all 2023 picks

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Re: Help Explaining College Dominator Stat Flaws

Postby TimeWillTell » Wed Sep 25, 2019 6:56 pm

Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 6:47 pm
It matters big time IMO...

Theres a thread that gives 10 years of data to support the following:
If a player does not score >50th percentile in breakout age AND >25.0 in Dominator Rating, there is a 92% chance that athlete will not be a top 24wr.

Almost every exception to that rule has a >25.0 Dominator Rating but misses on Breakout Age.

There is only 1 ever who missed on both and had a top 24 season. Tyreek Hill.

I wouldn't even draft a player who doesn't have >25 Dominator Rating
Just to clarify: >25th percentile CD or >25% CD?

I'd love to read that thread if anyone knows where it is. Thanks!
2020 Champion!
12 Team 1QB 0.5 PPR 30 man roster
Start: 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,1Flex,1K,1Def
QB: Mahomes, Stafford, Jones
RB: Barkley, CEH, Taylor, Dobbins, Swift, JRob, Penny
WR: AJB, Jefferson, DJM, Chark, Lamb, Tee Higgins, Mims, Shenault, Jeudy, Ruggs, P. Williams, Edwards, Callaway
TE: Hock, Jonnu, Hurst
K: Some guy
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Re: Help Explaining College Dominator Stat Flaws

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Wed Sep 25, 2019 7:02 pm

TimeWillTell wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 6:56 pm
Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 6:47 pm
It matters big time IMO...

Theres a thread that gives 10 years of data to support the following:
If a player does not score >50th percentile in breakout age AND >25.0 in Dominator Rating, there is a 92% chance that athlete will not be a top 24wr.

Almost every exception to that rule has a >25.0 Dominator Rating but misses on Breakout Age.

There is only 1 ever who missed on both and had a top 24 season. Tyreek Hill.

I wouldn't even draft a player who doesn't have >25 Dominator Rating
Just to clarify: >25th percentile CD or >25% CD?

I'd love to read that thread if anyone knows where it is. Thanks!

25% CD (Not percentile)

PMed.....
12 team PPR, 1QB, No negative points, all TDs 6
Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex
QB: Murray, Hurts, Lock, M Jones
RB: Barkley, J. Taylor, Dobbins, Mixon, Jav Williams
WR: T. Hill, Metcalf, Diggs, Godwin, Sutton, D Smith, Crowder, Gallup, P. Williams, Isabella
TE: Hockenson, Henry, Sample, Gray
K: McPherson
TD: PIT
Picks: 2022 3, 2023 1, 2023, 2, 2023 3

12 team PPR 1QB
Start 1QB, 1-2 RB, 2-4WRs, 1-2 TEs
QB: Brady, Darnold, Bridgewater, Hurts (TS), Lock (TS), Stidham (TS)
RB: Taylor, Dobbins, Mixon, Ahmed (TS)
WR: Diggs, Hopkins, DJM, Sutton, Higgins, Crowder, Gallup, P. Williams (TS), JJAW (TS), Isabella (TS)
TE: I Smith, Henry, Sample (TS)
K:
DEF: BUF, LAR
Picks: 1.04, 1.06, 1.07, 2.01, 4.04, 4.06, 2022 4th, 2022 5th, all 2023 picks

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Re: Help Explaining College Dominator Stat Flaws

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed Sep 25, 2019 7:31 pm

Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 6:47 pm
It matters big time IMO...

Theres a thread that gives 10 years of data to support the following:
If a player does not score >50th percentile in breakout age AND >25.0 in Dominator Rating, there is a 92% chance that athlete will not be a top 24wr.

Almost every exception to that rule has a >25.0 Dominator Rating but misses on Breakout Age.

There is only 1 ever who missed on both and had a top 24 season. Tyreek Hill.

I wouldn't even draft a player who doesn't have >25 Dominator Rating
Is this adjusted for draft pedigree

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Re: Help Explaining College Dominator Stat Flaws

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Wed Sep 25, 2019 7:39 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 7:31 pm
Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 6:47 pm
It matters big time IMO...

Theres a thread that gives 10 years of data to support the following:
If a player does not score >50th percentile in breakout age AND >25.0 in Dominator Rating, there is a 92% chance that athlete will not be a top 24wr.

Almost every exception to that rule has a >25.0 Dominator Rating but misses on Breakout Age.

There is only 1 ever who missed on both and had a top 24 season. Tyreek Hill.

I wouldn't even draft a player who doesn't have >25 Dominator Rating
Is this adjusted for draft pedigree
every wr drafted since 2010 is analyzed
12 team PPR, 1QB, No negative points, all TDs 6
Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex
QB: Murray, Hurts, Lock, M Jones
RB: Barkley, J. Taylor, Dobbins, Mixon, Jav Williams
WR: T. Hill, Metcalf, Diggs, Godwin, Sutton, D Smith, Crowder, Gallup, P. Williams, Isabella
TE: Hockenson, Henry, Sample, Gray
K: McPherson
TD: PIT
Picks: 2022 3, 2023 1, 2023, 2, 2023 3

12 team PPR 1QB
Start 1QB, 1-2 RB, 2-4WRs, 1-2 TEs
QB: Brady, Darnold, Bridgewater, Hurts (TS), Lock (TS), Stidham (TS)
RB: Taylor, Dobbins, Mixon, Ahmed (TS)
WR: Diggs, Hopkins, DJM, Sutton, Higgins, Crowder, Gallup, P. Williams (TS), JJAW (TS), Isabella (TS)
TE: I Smith, Henry, Sample (TS)
K:
DEF: BUF, LAR
Picks: 1.04, 1.06, 1.07, 2.01, 4.04, 4.06, 2022 4th, 2022 5th, all 2023 picks

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Re: Help Explaining College Dominator Stat Flaws

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Sep 25, 2019 8:29 pm

If you use Dominator as a sole statistic to evaluate WRs, then you're doing it wrong. It's a small piece of the puzzle.

I understand that fantasy scouting and real life scouting are different things, but I think it's weird that we try to depend on a singular number to be predictive when the NFL absolutely does not do that. There's simply a lot more you have to look at.

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Re: Help Explaining College Dominator Stat Flaws

Postby jonesmaster » Thu Sep 26, 2019 5:24 am

Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 7:02 pm
TimeWillTell wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 6:56 pm
Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 6:47 pm
It matters big time IMO...

Theres a thread that gives 10 years of data to support the following:
If a player does not score >50th percentile in breakout age AND >25.0 in Dominator Rating, there is a 92% chance that athlete will not be a top 24wr.

Almost every exception to that rule has a >25.0 Dominator Rating but misses on Breakout Age.

There is only 1 ever who missed on both and had a top 24 season. Tyreek Hill.

I wouldn't even draft a player who doesn't have >25 Dominator Rating
Just to clarify: >25th percentile CD or >25% CD?

I'd love to read that thread if anyone knows where it is. Thanks!

25% CD (Not percentile)

PMed.....
Please also send the thread
8-team SF / 0.5 PPR / TE (PPR) Scoring: 1QB, 3WR, 2RB, 2FLX, 1 SFLX, 1TE, 1D/ST, K

QB: Dak , Wilson , Cousins, Mac
RB: JT , Barkley , Chubb, Gibson, Gus Edwards, McKissic, Dillon, Singletary, Gaskin
WR: AJB , Godwin , Lamb , Julio, Sutton, OBJ, Deebo, Aiyuk, Hamler, TY
TE: Waller , Engram, Irv
D/ST: BAL

Picks: 2022: 2 1sts

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Re: Help Explaining College Dominator Stat Flaws

Postby ericanadian » Wed May 06, 2020 7:23 pm

Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 6:47 pm
It matters big time IMO...

Theres a thread that gives 10 years of data to support the following:
If a player does not score >50th percentile in breakout age AND >25.0 in Dominator Rating, there is a 92% chance that athlete will not be a top 24wr.

Almost every exception to that rule has a >25.0 Dominator Rating but misses on Breakout Age.

There is only 1 ever who missed on both and had a top 24 season. Tyreek Hill.

I wouldn't even draft a player who doesn't have >25 Dominator Rating
Several top receivers have had sub-25% dominator ratings:

Santana Moss
Wes Welker
Percy Harvin
And as you mentioned, Tyreek Hill

Josh Gordon had exactly 25%

Edelman & Terrelle Pryor were converted QBs so not sure if you count them, but they’ve both had top 24 seasons.

It’s certainly not common and I red flag it, but it is more than just one guy.
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RB - Gordon, Cook, Penny, Guice, Harris, Laird, Love
WR - Julio, C. Davis, AJ Brown, Samuel, Washington, Di. Johnson, Isabella
TE - Henry, Andrews
LB - Kuechly, R. Smith
DL - Hunter, Armstead, Quinn
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Re: Help Explaining College Dominator Stat Flaws

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Thu May 28, 2020 11:30 pm

ericanadian wrote:
Wed May 06, 2020 7:23 pm
Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 6:47 pm
It matters big time IMO...

Theres a thread that gives 10 years of data to support the following:
If a player does not score >50th percentile in breakout age AND >25.0 in Dominator Rating, there is a 92% chance that athlete will not be a top 24wr.

Almost every exception to that rule has a >25.0 Dominator Rating but misses on Breakout Age.

There is only 1 ever who missed on both and had a top 24 season. Tyreek Hill.

I wouldn't even draft a player who doesn't have >25 Dominator Rating
Several top receivers have had sub-25% dominator ratings:

Santana Moss
Wes Welker
Percy Harvin
And as you mentioned, Tyreek Hill

Josh Gordon had exactly 25%

Edelman & Terrelle Pryor were converted QBs so not sure if you count them, but they’ve both had top 24 seasons.

It’s certainly not common and I red flag it, but it is more than just one guy.
Yeah I was gonna say there’s no way that was accurate lol

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Re: Help Explaining College Dominator Stat Flaws

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:17 am

I'd draft Ruggs in the 2nd. I'd draft Mclaurin, being a 3rd round pick in 2019, even without hindsight. That's 2 for sure, I'd draft. If Jeudy had a dominator .2 percent lower, I'd still take him in the 4th.


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