2020 talent?

General discussion and team advice concerning IDP Leagues.
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2020 talent?

Postby DynastyDabbler » Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:05 am

Has anyone dug into this 2020 IDP class yet? I sure haven't... Curious as to who you guys think could be a productive rookie.
10 team half-ppr 1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 2FLX 3IDP
QB: B. Mayfield, G. Minshew, P. Rivers
RB: J. Mixon, M. Sanders, C.E-H, K. Hunt,
J. Robinson, D. Harris, J. Williams, G. Edwards, R. Penny, R. Freeman
WR: D.J. Moore, K. Golladay, D.K. Metcalf, L. Shenault, D. Johnson, C. Davis, J. Crowder, H. Renfrow, J. Meyers, B. Edwards, D. Peoples-Jones
TE: G. Kittle, J. Cook, D. Sample, C. Herndon
IDP: B. Martinez, J. Hicks, Z. Cunningham, F. Warner,

2021 1-7 (no 3rd)+ additional 1 & 2

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Re: 2020 talent?

Postby stick3925 » Fri Feb 28, 2020 6:23 pm

Here are my top draft eligible IDP prospects for the 2020 draft. I have sorted them into 4 positional groups: EDGE, IDL (interior D-Line), Off-Ball LB and DB.
I only ranked the players that I think are draftable in the IDP league I play in. For some background on the league, it is a 16-team league with a 3-round rookie draft. The IDP scoring system is tilted to inflate defensive player scoring; tackles are equal to 10 scrimmage yards and sacks and turnovers are worth 66% of a TD (last season 40 of the top 100 scorers in the league were defensive players). Also, we start as many defensive players (2 DL, 2 LBs and 2 DBs) as offensive players (1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 non-QB Flex).

EGDE Rankings
Note: positional designation after the draft will change these rankings greatly, therefore I have added if I think they are more likely to end up as a 4/3 DE or 3/4 OLB. The rankings below are based on pre-positional designation. So, for example, if Chaisson ends up as a LB and Gross-Matos ends up as a DE I would move Gross-Matos ahead of Chaisson in my overall rankings.

Tier One - Should be year one (if not be day one) starters
1. Chase Young (DE) – Should be an instant monster. I think he has at least as high of a ceiling as the Bosa brothers.
2. A.J. Epenesa (DE) – Ideal base defensive end. Good pass rusher and run defender. Should be a solid DL2 out of the gate.

Tier Two – Very situation dependent. The learning curve for pass rushers can be high and you may have to wait a year before they produce at the NFL level
3. K’Lavon Chaisson (LB) – Great athlete with an enormous pass-rush ceiling, but not great college production. Lost a full season to injury and only had one full season as a starter at LSU.
4. Yetur Gross-Matos (DE) – Good pass rusher with 2 very solid seasons of college production.

Tier Three - Day 2 picks who are probably only worth a look if they are drafted as DEs or in deeper IDP leagues
5. Julian Okwara (DE) – Big upside as a pass-rusher but hasn’t reached his potential. Broken leg ended his senior year.
6. Terrell Lewis (LB) – Prototype physical attributes but had injury issues and limited college production.
7. Curtis Weaver (LB) – Savvy pass-rusher with average athletic gifts. Three-year starter with excellent career college production (47 TFLs, 34 sacks).

IDL Rankins
Tier One - Should be year one (if not be day one) starters but beware that IDL typically takes time to develop. The learning curve for IDL is akin to TEs
1. Derrick Brown – Very disruptive and productive against the run and pass; averaged 50 tackles, 10 TFLs and 4 sacks per year over the past 3 seasons.
2. Javon Kinlaw – Physical specimen with decent college production.

Tier Two –You should not count on year one production. These should be considered as developmental picks only
3. Raekwon Davis – Looks like a prototype IDL. Physical profile is close to DeForrest Buckner but his college production is nowhere close to Buckner’s.
4. Ross Blacklock - Great upside as an interior pass rusher. Missed 2018 with an achilles injury. Production in 2019 was solid.
5. Neville Gallimore - Good interior pass rush potential. Production in college was ok. Has some upside but has a low floor.

Off-ball LB Rankings (I have shuffled these a bit from an earlier post on this message board)

Tier One - Should be year one (if not be day one) starters
1. Isaiah Simmons - He is the consensus top LB. His athleticism is so he good could possibly been seen as a safety by NFL teams (he was predominantly used as one at Clemson).
2. Patrick Queen - Late bloomer, great range, rising fast.
3. Kenneth Murray - Excellent run defender but is not good in coverage.

Tier Two - Somewhat situation dependent but will probably be day 2 picks that will get decent snap counts year one
4. Malik Harrison - Good run defender but looks like he could have issues athletically and in coverage.
5. Troy Dye - Great athlete, durability and frame concerns (too thin). Good production all 4 seasons at Oregon (391 tackles, 41 TFLs).

Tier Three - Late day 2/early day 3 picks and playing time will be very situation dependent
6. Akeem Davis-Gaither - Fast and rangy. I have seen comps to Darius Leonard, but I'm skeptical.
7. Jordyn Brooks - Productive senior season at MLB (20 TFLs).
8. David Woodward - Looked great in 2018 but got hurt in 2019. I like him more than most of the draft sites I monitor. I think he will be a value due to his stock dropping because of the injury.

*Bonus* Zach Baun - He played EDGE at Wisconsin but if he is drafted as an off-ball LB you can slot him into Tier Two. Very solid and productive all-around player.

DB Rankins
Tier One - Only listing one tier for DBs as they have the lowest positional value and should only be taken at the end of a rookie draft
1. Jeffrey Okudah – Might be the best in a recent string of excellent Ohio State CBs. Great tackler with good ball skills. Rookie CBs typically produce best in their rookie seasons as they get tested early and often. (I never thought I would have a corner as my #1 DB).
2. Grant Delpit – I had him as my top DB coming into the year, but he didn’t look like the same guy last season after an ankle injury. Hoping his poor tackling in 2019 was just because of that injury.
3. Xavier McKinney – Versatility is his calling card. Can play slot corner or either safety position. Might be best suited as a FS which could hurt his IDP value.
4. Antoine Winfield Jr. – Good tackler and even better ball-hawk. Not the most physically gifted, but a very high football IQ. Missed 16 of 36 games the past 2 seasons due to injury.

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Re: 2020 talent?

Postby robbie80robbie » Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:49 am

Thats an awesome Job Stick! Much appreciate other opinions in detail like that!

Not sure if i'm missing the boat or not on this LB class, but it seems like a big swing and a miss. I feel that simmons is an amazing football player, but I don't know how well he is going to translate into a fantasy player at linebacker, i feel he's going to be a strong safety at the next level.
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Re: 2020 talent?

Postby stick3925 » Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:07 am

It's pretty well established that the LB group is not great this year. There are always at least a couple that pan out though and I do really like my 3 tier one players.

As far as Simmons goes ... I don't think he's going to get moved to safety even with the incredible 40 time. He's probably going top 7 at worst and taking positional value into consideration I would guess a team wouldn't use a pick in that range on a safety. Although, he will probably get some snaps at safety considering how good he is in coverage.

I also want to mention a couple of combine standouts to add to my list:

IDL - Justin Madubuike - he just missed my list initially and his athletic testing numbers topped everyone I put ahead of him at IDL. His production at A&M was very solid as well.

Off Ball LB - Logan Wilson - tested better than I thought he would. He was also a very productive 4 year starter for Wyoming (400 tackles). With Woodward's poor athletic testing numbers I will likely slide Wilson ahead of him.

S/LB - Jeremy Chinn - FCS level player who tested through the roof athleticaly. The only game of his I watched was the Senior Bowl and he didn't look out-matched there or in the practices with the stepped up competition.

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Re: 2020 talent?

Postby bruiser » Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:34 pm

Good call on Simmons, stick. I think he's gonna be a stud. Probably worth a mid-late 1st rd pick depending on league size/settings.
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Re: 2020 talent?

Postby stick3925 » Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:08 am

bruiser wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:34 pm
Good call on Simmons, stick. I think he's gonna be a stud. Probably worth a mid-late 1st rd pick depending on league size/settings.
Interesting note on Simmons ... When the pick was announced he was listed as an OLB, which in a 3/4 defense means lots of pass rushing snaps. Depending on your league settings this could be a major issue. I need to do some more digging to see what manner he will truly be used in.

After some quick research here is a quote from the Cardinals GM that puts me at ease that he won't be used a primarily a pass-rusher:

Keim said he envisions Simmons playing different linebacker positions and situationally moving to strong safety.

“When you take a player that has this type of flexibility, you want to make sure everybody’s on the same page … I think we have a great plan for him,” Keim said.

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