DL Delayed Returns

[Pullo Vision]

I just read an article that reminded its readers it takes pass rushers 20-25 games to develop and adjust to the NFL. The article didn't say anything further on this idea.

That range is a player's sophomore year, assuming no games missed or benched. Also probably assumes a healthy number of defensive snaps, not just role playing on certain downs or being a strict special teamer.

Further in the article, it says that pass rushers, aside from the top two of each year, don't "warrant our love" until season three. That seems like it takes short term steam out of rookies, but creates future opportunities, as well.

Has anyone heard these kinds of point before? Do either ideas seem right, to you? How would that impact the 2019 potential of guys like-
2017- Solomon Thomas, Derek Barnett, Jonathan Allen, Taco Charlton, Takk McKinley
2018- Bradley Chubb (blanking on more DLs from this draft)

[lukkynumber13]

Absolutely, this is true. Never expect a rookie DL to produce to the point where they’re startable in fantasy. If you get that, great, but it’s super rare.

An elite DL will usually produce at a high level by his 2nd year, tho - as seen by Joey Bosa, Deforest Buckner, Danielle Hunter, Chris Jones (big time elite flashes in his 2nd year), and many others.

This is cause for concern with guys like Takk McKinley & Derek Barnett, although I’ve seen quite a few flashes from them. They are essentially IDP versions of Corey Davis.

Taco, Charles Harris, Solomon Thomas, Robert Nkemdiche, etc are more like Josh Doctson or Corey Coleman, unfortunately. Likely to never be big time contributors.

[Pullo Vision]

Absolutely, this is true. Never expect a rookie DL to produce to the point where they’re startable in fantasy. If you get that, great, but it’s super rare.

An elite DL will usually produce at a high level by his 2nd year, tho - as seen by Joey Bosa, Deforest Buckner, Danielle Hunter, Chris Jones (big time elite flashes in his 2nd year), and many others.

This is cause for concern with guys like Takk McKinley & Derek Barnett, although I’ve seen quite a few flashes from them. They are essentially IDP versions of Corey Davis.

Taco, Charles Harris, Solomon Thomas, Robert Nkemdiche, etc are more like Josh Doctson or Corey Coleman, unfortunately. Likely to never be big time contributors.

Thank you SO much, lukky!! Not just for the info here but all your other posts helping dyno ppl get used to IDP.

The article was focusing on pass rushers, but do these two points apply not just to rush backers like Clay Matthews but middle and coverage LBs, as well? Does that breakout range of early Year 2 to mid Year 3 apply to all front 7 positions?

[lukkynumber13]

Good question, and the answer is no.

Off-ball LBs (3-4 inside backers and 4-3 LBs) typically come into the league ready to go, similar to RBs. If you’re an off-ball LB drafted in the first 3 rounds, you should be ready to start and play at least 65-75% of the snaps within the first handful of weeks. By year 2, if you’re not playing 90%+ snaps, you’re probably not going to have a good career.