Dynasty League Football Forum

sloth8u wrote: ↑Mon May 22, 2017 8:06 am there are a few threads on "the stack" it works and i'll leave it at that.

Here's one: viewtopic.php?f=6&t=50829&p=439499#p439499
And another: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=108202

Whoops. I deleted my post. But yeah, that makes sense.

ninotoreS wrote: ↑Sun May 07, 2017 8:57 pm Andre Reed was the most recent 'great' Buffalo Bills WR, and even he only had four thousand yard receiving seasons in 15 seasons played.

As an Eric Moulds truther, I have to disagree here.

Here's an old thread on the same subject: Winning without RBs . In short, yes, it can be done. 2016 was a relatively rough year for those who don't invest much at RB. But I've been using that strategy for the last four seasons, and it's been quite profitable. Even in 2016 I finished in the black. Th...

Tom Brady averages 548 attempts per year , figure 140 go to a healthy Gronk, another 130 go to Edelman, another 110 go to the RBs, and you're left with 168 targets left between Hogan, Mitchell, Cooks, Allen and anyone else they throw in there, Mitchell and Hogan alone combined for 140 targets last ...

TurtleBK wrote: ↑Fri May 05, 2017 8:05 am Only 3 WRs in the NFL have had >75 recs, >1100 yards, and >= 8 TDs for both of the last 2 seasons: O'Dell Beckham, Jr., Antonio Brown, and Brandin Cooks

What a convenient set of thresholds!

One extra data point: I just traded my (hopefully late) 2018 2nd and the 3.08 for the 2.08 to take Lynch. Top available rookie RBs (by ADP) were Foreman, McNichols, Gallman, and Mack.

Note, this is a superflex league, so four QBs went before 2.08.

I agree that it's wrong to call Dixon a miss. I have, however, updated my belief about the probability of his success.

So we're just ignoring the fact that he was injured and was wearing a brace for a few weeks before he was 100%? They brought him along slowly and he probably wasn't 100% confident until late in the season. West was actually serviceable for them on early down work. Dixon struggled in pass protection...

Or, if you prefer, like this:

How about the hit rate of second-year RBs who were drafted in the fourth round of the NFL draft and then mustered 45 scrimmage yards per game, failing to beat out a guy who was traded for a conditional seventh round pick and then cut the prior season? How exactly did he fail to beat out West? Like ...

Most of my leagues draft at least 40 rookies. Rare to find a league that drafts fewer than 30, I'd think.

@Valhalla, I didn't really answer your main point. I agree we'd probably get more accurate results if veterans were included. That said, I don't think the cumulative results are crazy. If we sum the mean predictions (which are mislabeled as the median), we should expect a total of 2.15 top 18 perfor...

It's weird, but because of the way this is set up, the percentages actually should add up to more than 12 top-12 RBs. It's complicated, but it's because players who don't play six games aren't scored. Suppose there are 48 RBs with a non-negligible chance to finish in the top 12. How many of them wil...

I couldn't upload my attachment, but you can find the results here: https://twitter.com/brianmaloneff/statu ... 7012259842