I think I'll bow out of the discussion at this point, agree to disagree.JTLoh wrote:Not if I was smart enough to pick the other 15%, continually.Telperion wrote:If you continually invest in junk bonds which fail at an 85% rate, eventually you'll run out of capital with which to invest at all.
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- Thu Apr 07, 2016 8:00 am
- Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
- Topic: Introduction
- Replies: 100
- Views: 3515
Re: Introduction
- Thu Apr 07, 2016 7:47 am
- Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
- Topic: Introduction
- Replies: 100
- Views: 3515
Re: Introduction
If you continually invest in junk bonds which fail at an 85% rate, eventually you'll run out of capital with which to invest at all.
- Thu Apr 07, 2016 7:33 am
- Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
- Topic: Introduction
- Replies: 100
- Views: 3515
Re: Introduction
If you continually go all in on unlikely, you'll hit occasionally, but very likely will kick your roster's butt far more often.JTLoh wrote:Yes, I agree.Telperion wrote:That's extremely unlikely.
Do unlikely events never happen?
- Thu Apr 07, 2016 7:32 am
- Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
- Topic: Introduction
- Replies: 100
- Views: 3515
Re: Introduction
The consensus is that you have a 5-15% chance of Langford and Gordon outscoring Evans and Thomas, which is required for you to break even. Based on ADP, you lost now, because you could have gotten more from another owner in your league. Based on projected future scoring, you have an 85% chance of lo...
- Thu Apr 07, 2016 7:18 am
- Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
- Topic: Introduction
- Replies: 100
- Views: 3515
Re: Introduction
That's extremely unlikely.JTLoh wrote:How do you figure?Telperion wrote:The point everybody is making is that at best you break even, but the odds of breaking even are really low.
If Langford/Gordon out score Evan/TD I do more than break even.
- Thu Apr 07, 2016 7:05 am
- Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
- Topic: Introduction
- Replies: 100
- Views: 3515
Re: Introduction
The point everybody is making is that at best you break even, but the odds of breaking even are really low. Even at 75% odds (I'd put it closer to 15% personally), if you continually bleed value with every trade, your roster will eventually hemorrhage out because of too many lopsided deals that neve...
- Thu Apr 07, 2016 6:20 am
- Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
- Topic: Introduction
- Replies: 100
- Views: 3515
Re: Introduction
Btw don't think that because everybody disagrees with you you're not welcome, all opinions are welcome even if everybody thinks you're wrong. The main point is that you overpaid now, so even if you break even in the future, you gave up value now. You bought $1 with $5 with the hope that the $1 event...
- Wed Apr 06, 2016 3:23 am
- Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
- Topic: Introduction
- Replies: 100
- Views: 3515
Re: Introduction
Somebody with the Bears, can't recall who, is on record saying they like what they have in Langford and Carey. I'd much rather have Langford, but I don't see bellcow usage.
- Tue Apr 05, 2016 12:25 pm
- Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
- Topic: What kind of trades are you seeing for the 1.01 or 1.02
- Replies: 107
- Views: 4434
Re: What kind of trades are you seeing for the 1.01 or 1.02
The difference with Gronk is you know he'll score, the rest of the TE's you hope they score.
Also Gurley is in a completely different league from Elliott. He'd been everybody's projected 1.01 since nearly his freshman year in college. Elliott is the 1.01 because there's no better option available.
Also Gurley is in a completely different league from Elliott. He'd been everybody's projected 1.01 since nearly his freshman year in college. Elliott is the 1.01 because there's no better option available.
- Tue Apr 05, 2016 10:21 am
- Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
- Topic: Overcorrection of the Market
- Replies: 50
- Views: 1881
Re: Overcorrection of the Market
Missing on a RB during a start-up too can kill you for a year or 2. Everybody wants to take the safer asset and figure out RB later.
- Tue Apr 05, 2016 9:13 am
- Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
- Topic: Pre-Draft 2016 Rookie Rankings / Mock Draft
- Replies: 11
- Views: 1029
Re: Pre-Draft 2016 Rookie Rankings / Mock Draft
Moritz Boeringer is in this edition, no takers yet.
- Tue Apr 05, 2016 8:37 am
- Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
- Topic: Pre-Draft 2016 Rookie Rankings / Mock Draft
- Replies: 11
- Views: 1029
- Tue Apr 05, 2016 7:31 am
- Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
- Topic: Introduction
- Replies: 100
- Views: 3515
Re: Introduction
Also good to know is that there are 2 warring factions: The Metrics & Draft Pedigree faction, and the Film Study faction. There are a few in Switzerland.
You'll pick up pretty quickly who's who.
You'll pick up pretty quickly who's who.
- Tue Apr 05, 2016 7:27 am
- Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
- Topic: What kind of trades are you seeing for the 1.01 or 1.02
- Replies: 107
- Views: 4434
Re: What kind of trades are you seeing for the 1.01 or 1.02
I would take that without a second thought.JTLoh wrote:I own the 1.01.
I've been offered 1.5 + 1.8 + Gronk
I considered it but in the end rejected. I think Zeke is going to be special.
- Tue Apr 05, 2016 6:08 am
- Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
- Topic: What kind of trades are you seeing for the 1.01 or 1.02
- Replies: 107
- Views: 4434
Re: What kind of trades are you seeing for the 1.01 or 1.02
Boiled down, that deal is Cam + the 1.12 for Elliott, the 3.01, and a 2017 4th. Even in QB friendly scoring I'd say your side is very light.