Search found 342 matches

by PR0v3
Tue Dec 10, 2019 8:18 pm
Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
Topic: 1.01 value
Replies: 56
Views: 1973

Re: 1.01 value

I lost the 1.01 by 2 points and am pissed. Not sold on Taylor at all, and totally sold on Swift. If things don’t change in the process I think I’ll have to pay up for the pick or hope Swift drops to me at 2.
by PR0v3
Tue Dec 10, 2019 7:34 pm
Forum: Dynasty Team Advice
Topic: Corey Davis or Anthony Miller?
Replies: 8
Views: 290

Re: Corey Davis or Anthony Miller?

Miller. Miller looks like a good player, Davis looks invisible.
by PR0v3
Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:32 pm
Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
Topic: Code Red Panic- David Johnson
Replies: 272
Views: 8900

Re: Code Red Panic- David Johnson

He got dropped after that game. You guys wanted to know why he no longer stats, I showed you. If you believe he doesn't start because cliff likes having chats with him on the sideline you are welcome to believe that. Yea I don't get the DJ truthers at this point. He's 28 years old and has been play...
by PR0v3
Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:10 pm
Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
Topic: Darius Slayton
Replies: 75
Views: 4680

Re: Darius Slayton

Hard to look good in training camp when you are injured. He had some up and down practices, but with the lack of competition it made sense to stash. I still can't remember many 5th round studs, so my expectations are tempered here. Just recently, we had Diggs and Tyreek. They fell for non-talent re...
by PR0v3
Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:52 am
Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
Topic: Code Red Panic- David Johnson
Replies: 272
Views: 8900

Re: Code Red Panic- David Johnson

He got dropped after that game. You guys wanted to know why he no longer stats, I showed you. If you believe he doesn't start because cliff likes having chats with him on the sideline you are welcome to believe that. Yea I don't get the DJ truthers at this point. He's 28 years old and has been play...
by PR0v3
Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:41 am
Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
Topic: Week 14 Discussion
Replies: 293
Views: 6876

Re: Week 14 Discussion

It's not so much that the math is incorrect as much as it is the data to come up with the math. When your data is wrong, your math is going to be wrong. The data is based on 2-point conversion rates over the history of the NFL. By this point, the sample size should be large enough to be statistical...
by PR0v3
Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:28 am
Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
Topic: Week 14 Discussion
Replies: 293
Views: 6876

Re: Week 14 Discussion

He was unwilling to see it through though for the long run. The NFL isn’t a long run business though, if things don’t work out immediately you will be axed. It’s no wonder the status quo isn’t often challenged, despite pretty clear evidence it should be. You have several flaws to your argument and ...
by PR0v3
Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:17 am
Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
Topic: Week 14 Discussion
Replies: 293
Views: 6876

Re: Week 14 Discussion

It's not so much that the math is incorrect as much as it is the data to come up with the math. When your data is wrong, your math is going to be wrong. The data is based on 2-point conversion rates over the history of the NFL. By this point, the sample size should be large enough to be statistical...
by PR0v3
Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:14 am
Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
Topic: Rookie WR's......Look Amazing
Replies: 139
Views: 7722

Re: Rookie WR's......Look Amazing

Do people think DK, AJB, M Brown, and TMac are all better assets than Deebo right now? I’ve seen deebos name left out on a few responses and that surprises me. He’s got the most usage right now and they actually scheme to get him the ball. Can we do a top 5 WR ranking real quick if you had to draft...
by PR0v3
Mon Dec 09, 2019 11:32 pm
Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
Topic: Rookie WR's......Look Amazing
Replies: 139
Views: 7722

Re: Rookie WR's......Look Amazing

Do people think DK, AJB, M Brown, and TMac are all better assets than Deebo right now? I’ve seen deebos name left out on a few responses and that surprises me. He’s got the most usage right now and they actually scheme to get him the ball. Can we do a top 5 WR ranking real quick if you had to draft...
by PR0v3
Mon Dec 09, 2019 11:04 pm
Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
Topic: Week 14 Discussion
Replies: 293
Views: 6876

Re: Week 14 Discussion

^^...that's not how percentages or probabilities work... If it worked like that, teams would be doing it. Going for two is higher variance at the average 2 point/PAT success rates. Variance is irrelevant in the long run. EV is points on the board. Higher EV = more points. More points = good. NFL te...
by PR0v3
Mon Dec 09, 2019 11:02 pm
Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
Topic: Week 14 Discussion
Replies: 293
Views: 6876

Re: Week 14 Discussion

And if you don't get it you are putting yourself in a greater hole. NFL PAT success rate = 94.4%. 100 PATs = 94.4 points. NFL 2-point conversion rate is generally in the 45-60% range. 100 2 point conversion attempts = 90-120 points. Going for two scores more points in the long run, it’s really not ...
by PR0v3
Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:45 pm
Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
Topic: Week 14 Discussion
Replies: 293
Views: 6876

Re: Week 14 Discussion

^^...that's not how percentages or probabilities work... If it worked like that, teams would be doing it. Going for two is higher variance at the average 2 point/PAT success rates. Variance is irrelevant in the long run. EV is points on the board. Higher EV = more points. More points = good. NFL te...
by PR0v3
Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:36 pm
Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
Topic: Week 14 Discussion
Replies: 293
Views: 6876

Re: Week 14 Discussion

In the long run sure, but this is one game, that potential less than 50% conversion is possibly crippling in this specific situation with the amount of time that was remaining, you'll be chasing those points all game if you don't get it. Crippling? If you miss you just go for two the next time. Obv...
by PR0v3
Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:01 pm
Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
Topic: Week 14 Discussion
Replies: 293
Views: 6876

Re: Week 14 Discussion

And if you don't get it you are putting yourself in a greater hole. NFL PAT success rate = 94.4%. 100 PATs = 94.4 points. NFL 2-point conversion rate is generally in the 45-60% range. 100 2 point conversion attempts = 90-120 points. Going for two scores more points in the long run, it’s really not ...