Dynasty League Football Forum

JTLoh wrote:

Telperion wrote:If you continually invest in junk bonds which fail at an 85% rate, eventually you'll run out of capital with which to invest at all.

Not if I was smart enough to pick the other 15%, continually.

I think I'll bow out of the discussion at this point, agree to disagree.

If you continually invest in junk bonds which fail at an 85% rate, eventually you'll run out of capital with which to invest at all.

JTLoh wrote:

Telperion wrote:That's extremely unlikely.

Yes, I agree.

Do unlikely events never happen?

If you continually go all in on unlikely, you'll hit occasionally, but very likely will kick your roster's butt far more often.

The consensus is that you have a 5-15% chance of Langford and Gordon outscoring Evans and Thomas, which is required for you to break even. Based on ADP, you lost now, because you could have gotten more from another owner in your league. Based on projected future scoring, you have an 85% chance of lo...

JTLoh wrote:

Telperion wrote:The point everybody is making is that at best you break even, but the odds of breaking even are really low.

How do you figure?
If Langford/Gordon out score Evan/TD I do more than break even.

That's extremely unlikely.

The point everybody is making is that at best you break even, but the odds of breaking even are really low. Even at 75% odds (I'd put it closer to 15% personally), if you continually bleed value with every trade, your roster will eventually hemorrhage out because of too many lopsided deals that neve...

Btw don't think that because everybody disagrees with you you're not welcome, all opinions are welcome even if everybody thinks you're wrong. The main point is that you overpaid now, so even if you break even in the future, you gave up value now. You bought $1 with $5 with the hope that the $1 event...

Somebody with the Bears, can't recall who, is on record saying they like what they have in Langford and Carey. I'd much rather have Langford, but I don't see bellcow usage.

The difference with Gronk is you know he'll score, the rest of the TE's you hope they score.

Also Gurley is in a completely different league from Elliott. He'd been everybody's projected 1.01 since nearly his freshman year in college. Elliott is the 1.01 because there's no better option available.

Missing on a RB during a start-up too can kill you for a year or 2. Everybody wants to take the safer asset and figure out RB later.

Moritz Boeringer is in this edition, no takers yet.

Bump for the morning crowd.

Also good to know is that there are 2 warring factions: The Metrics & Draft Pedigree faction, and the Film Study faction. There are a few in Switzerland.

You'll pick up pretty quickly who's who.

JTLoh wrote:I own the 1.01.

I've been offered 1.5 + 1.8 + Gronk

I considered it but in the end rejected. I think Zeke is going to be special.

I would take that without a second thought.

Boiled down, that deal is Cam + the 1.12 for Elliott, the 3.01, and a 2017 4th. Even in QB friendly scoring I'd say your side is very light.