Search found 627 matches

by PR0v3
Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:40 pm
Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
Topic: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!
Replies: 255
Views: 9936

Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

No, it’s not the same perspective. Casino games are built on odds. The slot machines have built in odds to the games. For example, for every $1.00 put into the slot machine, it is programmed to give back $.98. This is written in code, it is predictable, it is the odds. Over time, this is what will ...
by PR0v3
Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:51 pm
Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
Topic: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!
Replies: 255
Views: 9936

Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

This is the same perspective as thinking you're smarter than the casino. Maybe you can beat them by a little if you're very savvy. At the end of the day the casino will always profit in the long run. Casinos base their odds off of historical data so by your argument you're saying that the oddsmaker...
by PR0v3
Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:35 pm
Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
Topic: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!
Replies: 255
Views: 9936

Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Agree with the sentiment here but its important to note these are not ODDS. They are recent results. Big difference. Yep. This is my problem with the analytics crowd, they do the same thing with dominator rating + draft capital. Past results are not indicative of future performance. You can’t just ...
by PR0v3
Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:37 pm
Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
Topic: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!
Replies: 255
Views: 9936

Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Agree with the sentiment here but its important to note these are not ODDS. They are recent results. Big difference. Yep. This is my problem with the analytics crowd, they do the same thing with dominator rating + draft capital. Past results are not indicative of future performance. You can’t just ...
by PR0v3
Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:50 am
Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
Topic: 2020 Rookie RB's
Replies: 183
Views: 6486

Re: 2020 Rookie RB's

Seahawks took an RB they don't even use in the 1st and are still good, though. Chiefs just took an RB in the first. Rams made an SB appearance with an early first RB who wasn't playing (and are 5-2 this year). Agree that RBs are often overdrafted, but it's not just something that bad franchises do....
by PR0v3
Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:28 am
Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
Topic: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!
Replies: 255
Views: 9936

Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Just for a bit of context, Davante Adams failed to eclipse 500 yards in his first two seasons playing with a great quarterback. Dynasty football is a game of patience. This is one resource of many. While this isn't the end all be all it should give you insights. Context is important as Davante Adam...
by PR0v3
Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:06 pm
Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
Topic: Diontae Johnson is...... maybe really really good?
Replies: 112
Views: 5560

Re: Diontae Johnson is...... maybe really really good?

And ABs work ethic and durability were hall of fame caliber. Its not always mere talent that separates professionals from the elites Word out of Pittsburgh is that Claypool has that same work ethic. We won’t know that to be true for about 10 more years or so. I’d expect a college kid or rookie to b...
by PR0v3
Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:43 pm
Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
Topic: Brandon Aiyuk
Replies: 16
Views: 680

Re: Brandon Aiyuk

Here is what the top rookie WRs are currently on pace for: CLamb - 82/1,136/4 JJefferson - 74/1,432/8 JJeudy - 50/762/2 BAiyuk - 53/930/8 THiggins - 61/937/6 LShenault - 66/864/2 HRuggs - 32/848/4 CClaypool - 48/994/16 Besides from Lamb and Jefferson who are in their own production tier right now, ...
by PR0v3
Mon Oct 26, 2020 4:20 pm
Forum: Dynasty Team Advice
Topic: Aiyuk value
Replies: 26
Views: 476

Re: Aiyuk value

I drafted Aiyuk at 1.10, he was my 3rd favorite WR in the class due to his freak athleticism, 1st round draft capital, and landing spot/coaching staff. I traded Deebo away to clear space for Aiyuk since I pegged him as their future WR1 from the moment they drafted him. I've started him two times thi...
by PR0v3
Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:15 pm
Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
Topic: Brandon Aiyuk
Replies: 16
Views: 680

Re: Brandon Aiyuk

He was a must acquire for me predraft and I like what I see so far. He has obvious, standout athleticism that pops on screen and positional skill to match. He has building chemistry with Jimmy G and is establishing himself as a key component of the offense. I don’t think we’ve seen his best yet eith...
by PR0v3
Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:56 pm
Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
Topic: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.
Replies: 507
Views: 18141

Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

The only thing that actually matters is the player’s skill and on-field abilities. That is what translates to the league and will determine whether they succeed or fail, and you aren’t going to learn anything about a player’s skill or abilities through numbers. draft capital alone is the best predi...
by PR0v3
Tue Oct 13, 2020 11:58 am
Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
Topic: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.
Replies: 507
Views: 18141

Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

It’s not that there’s no need for anybody to watch film, but that the individual dynasty gamer isn’t gaining anything other than personal enjoyment from watching some clips on YouTube. The individual dynasty gamer also isn’t gaining anything by doing “advanced analytical dives” of prospects either,...
by PR0v3
Tue Oct 13, 2020 11:42 am
Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
Topic: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.
Replies: 507
Views: 18141

Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

*The scouts from Moneyball have entered the chat* To be fair football is a waaaay more dynamic sport. In baseball the most that can happen on a standard play are 5 things. 1) A pitch 2) A swing 3) A catch (in the outfield) 4) Another throw (from the outfield to a base) 5) Another catch (at a base) ...
by PR0v3
Tue Oct 13, 2020 11:20 am
Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
Topic: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.
Replies: 507
Views: 18141

Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

I feel like you’re making my point for me. You literally did not have to personally spend a single second of your own time watching “film” to know these things. The analytic approach rarely involves the “raw stats” that you mention. The idea is to figure out which metrics meaningfully correlate wit...
by PR0v3
Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:29 am
Forum: Dynasty League Discussion
Topic: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.
Replies: 507
Views: 18141

Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

And I don’t either, even if it seems like it. Here’s my outline: 1. Film analysis is already heavily baked into NFL draft capital. So even the “analytics” folks aren’t discounting it. 2. There are plenty of people who watch film systematically and chart what they see. This can be useful, even if th...