Latching onto Flashes

[Plank]

How do you keep yourself from latching onto flashes of greatness of players. I feel this happens all the time, we see that one play, that say, "Oh wow." And then we never see it again. Find ourselves holding onto that guy for 3 years, he never starts...

How prevalent do you think it is?

Is it exaggerated the higher the player is drafted?

Do we always choose flash over the not so flashy? Do you mix them up?

Woke up to the phrase on one of the podcasts, not sure which one it was, think it was Dynasty Sharks... but it did get me thinking, think we sell on flash all the time too, heh...

Feel free to post that one flash play that sells you, might be an interesting perspective..

[Plank]

A quick example here is catch by Chris Conley:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lRpn4dKtt5w

[evorzan]

I think it's important to identify several factors when discussing the value of flashes in evaluation.

First, why was there an opportunity for a flash play? Flash plays typically involve a receiver being in a contested situation. Did the receiver fail to generate separation? Was the throw off target? Is the play flashy simply because the receiver was deficient in some manner? If the defense, ball placement, or something else led to the opportunity for a flash play, then I'd say we can forgive the WR and evaluate it for what it is.

How many opportunities does the receiver have to make flash plays, and what percentage of potential flash plays do they actually create a flash play? If it's a 1 out of 10 kind of thing, it's probably just that - a flash. If you see a receiver making flash plays 40% or more of the time when one is possible, that sounds like a kid that can ball.

I tend to like players that are consistent and less flashy, but who have a high consistency with delivering flashy plays when the opportunity arises. My thoughts are that the best college WRs aren't in a position to make a flashy play because they've created separation for themselves in the first place and ran their route in such a manner that the QB has sufficient room to lead them.

[iCantStop]

A quick example here is catch by Chris Conley:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lRpn4dKtt5w

It's a great catch, but I think you can find one spectacular grab from every WR prospect...

http://www.cbssports.com/images/college ... onjuke.gif

This did it for me... When I saw this one I was infatuated with his talent and creativity. Thankfully I wasn't playing Dynasty yet!

I really like where this discussion could go, because I think it's a very real phenomenon that can get the best of us. I think that, in order to let it not affect us, we need to realize that these guys are the most athletically gifted human beings in the world. Most of them have the ability to make a highlight catch, and many have done so.

[ccj]

It wasn't exactly flash, but this play really sold me on Patterson:
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/201311070 ... ab=analyze

He just looks so big, controlled, and catches beautifully with his hands away from his body (on this play). In addition to all his highlight runs in 2013 I was really buying in to the hype. Now, if I'm being honest after watching some highlights trying to find that play... I think Norv Turner is just a bad coach. I mean, good at what he does, but the game is passing him by. You should be able to utilize Patterson better than he did last year unless there is something else behind the scenes like Patterson got fat or skipped meetings etc. Sure CPat might not be the guy to run option routes or even good traditional routes, but come on. He gets 3 carries for 104 yards and a TD in game one. Then seven carries the rest of the year...

I mean, I always made fun of Trent Richardson for his low YPC when in Cleveland (I actually compared him to Dan Thomas and Mark Ingram who he was statistically identical to at the time) ... but I was buying Trent for plays like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1v2n3jOEYBY

Generally I'm a statistically oriented guy, but ... yeah, I get caught from time to time too.

[kadun2]

I love the flash plays...but it's a personal opinion as to whether or not it's the real deal. I so much admire David Tyree's SB catch, but it's a good example of a one time thing. The Conley catch is the real deal in my opinion. Even with the limited tape we have on him otherwise, I like what I see in that catch. I will be trying to draft him when I can. Not too soon though...

[iCantStop]

Just had an interesting thought:

Getting "Sold" on rookies happens too easily if you watch their Highlight tape instead of watching their game film. The blinders really start to come on when you only see the great plays. I've gotten myself with this a couple of times this year. For some of the players in the 10-30 category I have watched just the highlights to see if I like some "Flash" and I've moved them up my rankings. For others, I've noticed that they didn't make a "Flash" and I've moved them down a bit, just because I hoped to see something great and draft-pick-inspiring. I think this is especially dangerous with RBs... For the 300 carries some of them get in a year, highlight films may only be of 30. The other 90% may have been terrible for various reasons.