How many years does Brandon Marshall have left???

[floz00]

I have a chance to pick up B. Marshall fairly cheap. My concern is his age and situation.
1) How much longer do you believe he has?
2) How much of a drop off in production on the Jets???
Thanks for your input.

[BuckeyeNation]

I'm pretty confident that Marshall has 3-4 more years of solid production. His game is predicated on size and strength more than it is speed, so I think he's the type of WR that will see a more gradual decline than the WRs that rely mostly on speed and quickness.

As far as his production goes, it's hard to say. A lot depends on what the Jets do at QB. If Geno is the QB, I have a lot less faith in Marshall's production. Either way, I think Marshall's days of 100/1300/10-12 seasons are over. I don't see any reason why he can't still have multiple seasons around 1k yards and 8-9 TDs. Gailey isn't a terrible offensive coach, so I don't think he'll be as hindered as he would have been if Rex was still the Jets coach.

IMO though, if you're buying Marshall I think you may have to plan into riding him into the ground. Given his age and situation, he's not a "desirable" player in the trade market anymore. He can still be a solid dynasty asset and a very productive player, but I think he'll become one of those players that are just "there" on your roster and you won't ever really have legit opportunities to sell him for what he's really worth.

[sloth8u]

couldnt agree more buckeye with your assessment, although i think that there is potential for some leg injury, and lets not forget that it took cutler to make him productive.

i actually think geno could be a fine qb for marshall, assuming they dont draft or trade for their starter. its a new regime for the nyj and i think some are forgetting that. he's a guy that has potential to be a very valuable piece on a team but wont carry much trade value going forward. i dont think anyone will forget about his age or the jets soon enough to get a nice haul, reguardless of how he performs.

to the op...what is fairly cheap? that really depends on opinions here.

[TheChicken]

I think Marshall easily has 3-5 years left (injuries withstanding). He showed us last year that he can make plays and score TDs whilst on one leg, so the aging process should not take too much away from his game.

In Chan Gaileys last OC position he supported both Bowe and Gonzalez to 1000 yard seasons and 7 & 10 TDs respectively. When HC in Buffalo only Stevie Johnson managed to get to 1000 yards and no-one else was close. Gailey has minimal history in supporting 2 WRs and Todd Bowles has come from a defense orientated division/team and is a defensive guru so I cannot really envisage him dictating an aerial offensive approach, more likely a clock management approach.

Looking at the roster there is not the talent their to support two 1000 yard receivers, also Marshalls gaudy numbers were pretty much target driven and those will more than likely reduce significantly. He has to compete with Decker, who is a red zone threat and has playing time with Geno, although Decker & Amaro is a downgrade from Jeffery & Bennett. Overall I'd be mildly surprised if he reaches 1000 yards in his first season and unless he signs a new contract this off season I'd be surprised if he is a Jet in 2016. The fact that he could be elsewhere in 2016 could make him a decent gamble if the ticket is cheap enough.

[bonscott]

I agree I think he has at least 2-3 years of decent production left and I think his decline will be less then others because as pointed out, speed really isn't his thing.

And I'd also want to know how cheap is "cheap". As a Marshall owner the past couple years in the league in my sig I've come to find out he has little trade value, at least in that league. Nobody wanted him for anything close to value a couple years ago when I tried to sell to rebuild around the trade deadline so now he's basically worthless in the trade market. So he'll be a "sit on my roster and rot" kinda guy and I'm fine with that. I think if you can get him for a mid to late 2nd or lower I'd call that value and I'd do it if you were in a contending window the next couple years. I'd probably start with a 3rd and go up from there. I find it's pretty easy to acquire aging WRs from rebuilding teams (or any team really) for 3rd rounders. But again, depends on the league and the owner involved.

[HawkeyeState]

He probably can play 3-4 more years.
You shouldn't expect more than mid WR2 numbers from him for the rest of his career

[Jfever]

He is the most talented wr on his team - that isn't a question. He is a big body, red zone guy that never relied on straight line speed for his nfl success - and will quickly become the #1 passing target on the Jet's offense. Thinking that he'll struggle to put up 1k yds is kinda silly to me. Like, where does that come from? I see him coming in with 80 rec, 1200 plus yds and 8td or so. Decker will be the one to barely sniff 1000 imo and Amaro isn't quite ready to be relied on just yet.

I see humor in the over the top agism in dynasty circles. Elite wr like Marshall can and do produce wr1 numbers into their mid 30's - much more often than rookie wr contribute or pan out. Look it up fellas. All the sudden Marshall is a wr2 now.... He just left J.Cutler and the Bears where he was on an offense with Forte, A.Jeffery, Bennett. He was one of several mouths to feed. Now.... people are questioning his potential targets. Why? Because someone like Decker or Amaro will take them? Chris Johnson, ? Who will take Marshalls targets? And... really, how much worse really is Geno than Cutler? The Offensive system obviously will have an impact - but my feeling is the other variables will negate that and thus - Marshalls fantasy out put will remain fairly consistent if he is healthy. Health has always been a minor concern for him though.


Polarizing player and situation for sure.

[Never Veto1]

I have a chance to pick up B. Marshall fairly cheap. My concern is his age and situation.
1) How much longer do you believe he has?
2) How much of a drop off in production on the Jets???
Thanks for your input.

What is considered Cheap?

[Jfever]

Good question JK^

For me, I got offered Marshall and the 1.11 for M.Bryant on a team that I consider a contender - So.... snap accept. I can see how some teams in rebuild wouldn't want to deal with the situation though.

[HawkeyeState]

Just wanted to point out if you extrapolate his 2014 stats to 16 games (he played 13) you get 75 catches for 887 yards and 9.8 Touchdowns which comes out to 185 points in 1/2 PPR or 222.5 points in full PPR. In 1/2 PPR that would have put him at WR19 or low WR2. In Full PPR 222.5 points would have put him at WR18 or low WR2.
So if you expect a 32 year old receiver to progress instead of fade or stay the same, you can have Marshall and I will take someone else

[TheChicken]

He is the most talented wr on his team - that isn't a question. He is a big body, red zone guy that never relied on straight line speed for his nfl success - and will quickly become the #1 passing target on the Jet's offense. Thinking that he'll struggle to put up 1k yds is kinda silly to me. Like, where does that come from? I see him coming in with 80 rec, 1200 plus yds and 8td or so. Decker will be the one to barely sniff 1000 imo and Amaro isn't quite ready to be relied on just yet.

I see humor in the over the top agism in dynasty circles. Elite wr like Marshall can and do produce wr1 numbers into their mid 30's - much more often than rookie wr contribute or pan out. Look it up fellas. All the sudden Marshall is a wr2 now.... He just left J.Cutler and the Bears where he was on an offense with Forte, A.Jeffery, Bennett. He was one of several mouths to feed. Now.... people are questioning his potential targets. Why? Because someone like Decker or Amaro will take them? Chris Johnson, ? Who will take Marshalls targets? And... really, how much worse really is Geno than Cutler? The Offensive system obviously will have an impact - but my feeling is the other variables will negate that and thus - Marshalls fantasy out put will remain fairly consistent if he is healthy. Health has always been a minor concern for him though.


Polarizing player and situation for sure.

I don't think many have used age as a reason Marshall will not reach 1000 yards. In your scenario of 80 recs 1200 yds and 8tds, Marshall will have to average 15 yards a reception, something he has only ever done once (if you exclude his 20 reception rookie year). He averages 12.5 yds a catch and at 80 catches that is .... 1000 yards! There were only 17 wide receivers with 80+ catches in 2015 and 4 of those didn't reach 1000 yards. Will Marshall be one of those 13 receivers to get 80+ catches and 1000+ yards .... with Geno Smith or Fitzpatrick or A rookie throwing him the ball in a Bowles/Gailey offense? I'm still a no, even if he was 25 (btw only 3 of the 17 WRs were 30 or over and 2 were rookies).

[HawkeyeState]

He is the most talented wr on his team - that isn't a question. He is a big body, red zone guy that never relied on straight line speed for his nfl success - and will quickly become the #1 passing target on the Jet's offense. Thinking that he'll struggle to put up 1k yds is kinda silly to me. Like, where does that come from? I see him coming in with 80 rec, 1200 plus yds and 8td or so. Decker will be the one to barely sniff 1000 imo and Amaro isn't quite ready to be relied on just yet.

I see humor in the over the top agism in dynasty circles. Elite wr like Marshall can and do produce wr1 numbers into their mid 30's - much more often than rookie wr contribute or pan out. Look it up fellas. All the sudden Marshall is a wr2 now.... He just left J.Cutler and the Bears where he was on an offense with Forte, A.Jeffery, Bennett. He was one of several mouths to feed. Now.... people are questioning his potential targets. Why? Because someone like Decker or Amaro will take them? Chris Johnson, ? Who will take Marshalls targets? And... really, how much worse really is Geno than Cutler? The Offensive system obviously will have an impact - but my feeling is the other variables will negate that and thus - Marshalls fantasy out put will remain fairly consistent if he is healthy. Health has always been a minor concern for him though.


Polarizing player and situation for sure.

80 1200 8 is 208 points in 1/2 PPR which would have been WR14 in 2014. That's high WR2
80 1200 8 is 248 points in Full PPR which would have been WR13 in 2014. That's high WR2.
So basically even your own projections slot him in at a WR2 but yet you go on to say its absurd to say he's a WR2 now.....

[HawkeyeState]

Oh, and the last WR that played for the Jets to get close to 1200 yards was Jerrico Cotchery in 2007 with 1,130 yards and 2 TDs. Far from the 1200 and 8 your predicting for Marshall. And that was 8 seasons ago

[Jfever]

I see your points and agree. When thinking on it is is much more likley that he is a 70 catch - 1000 wr with 8-10 tds. In my defense - I threw an (or so) in there as there is no real way of predicting. Definitely a wr2 - not a wr1. But, I don't usually play the "extrapolate" game either way (good / bad). Like - if you extrapolate OBJ's numbers from last year - he is and will be the best wr to ever strap on a pair of cleats. Clearly - he isn't as he was outplayed by J.Landry in college and also has a history leg injuries himself. Anyway, I was also thinking in terms of larger leagues as that is a trend I am currently taking. Used to be in a couple ten team leagues, then switched to all 12, now I'm making transition to add more 16 team leagues.

Point taken though. I think I was being too generous and - I think its safe to say you Hawkeye, are much more in favor of youth and potential over proven commodities. Which is perfectly fine with me. I myself have learned over time to not underestimate vets and to definitely not overestimate youth.

For me as a Marshall owner in one of my several leagues - he makes for a GD AWESOME wr 4!

[HawkeyeState]

I see your points and agree. When thinking on it is is much more likley that he is a 70 catch - 1000 wr with 8-10 tds. In my defense - I threw an (or so) in there as there is no real way of predicting. Definitely a wr2 - not a wr1. But, I don't usually play the "extrapolate" game either way (good / bad). Like - if you extrapolate OBJ's numbers from last year - he is and will be the best wr to ever strap on a pair of cleats. Clearly - he isn't as he was outplayed by J.Landry in college and also has a history leg injuries himself. Anyway, I was also thinking in terms of larger leagues as that is a trend I am currently taking. Used to be in a couple ten team leagues, then switched to all 12, now I'm making transition to add more 16 team leagues.

Point taken though. I think I was being too generous and - I think its safe to say you Hawkeye, are much more in favor of youth and potential over proven commodities. Which is perfectly fine with me. I myself have learned over time to not underestimate vets and to definitely not overestimate youth.

For me as a Marshall owner in one of my several leagues - he makes for a GD AWESOME wr 4!

He definitely is an awesome WR4.
In any league 14 teams or larger he probably is undervalued but in 10 or 12 teamers I could see him being overvalued by most