Gronk on Jimmy Kimmel

[Matticus]

It seems like instead of a Gronk vs. Luck debate, it is really Gronk & Cutler vs. Luck & Allen/Amaro/TE addition conversation. In a dynasty format, I take the youth and relatively safe Luck side of that comparison.

How close is Cutler from being cut or sent to another team with possible (probably?) a worse receiving game? How many years will Gronk continue to heavily outperform the other TEs? How long will Luck be a top 3-5 QB?

With those questions in mind, I keep Luck.

Makes sense, but rosters are liquid. Cutler and Gronk vs. Luck and Allen is assuming you can't get a better QB than Cutler. IF I took the deal, I would work another trade for a QB I thought would have a solid 2015 (at the very least). Guys like Big Ben, Palmer, Rivers, Romo, and so on are usually attainable at reasonable prices.

I don't see Gronk slowing down anytime soon since he's only 25.

[FantasyFreak]

QBs aren't super important in a 12 team, but the 6 pt per passing TD makes me want to hold Luck...

If I did do the deal (which I probably would in the end), I would see if I could package some of those picks you have for another dominate QB. Or if you like one of Winston/Mariota pull the trigger on one of those guys.

Luck will be at it for 10-15 years. Gronk? Maybe an injury riddled 5-7. I wouldn't trade Luck either.

[frodo2003]

I'm actually really leery of Gronk and paying a huge amount to get him.
Nobody has even mentioned all his injuries--some being pretty serious.

He has had 7 surgeries:
4 to his forearm, 2 on his back, and 1 to repair his torn ACL.

To me, the probability of him re-injuring himself somewhere down the line seems extremely high.
He stayed healthy this year, but I would never give up Luck, or a Dez, AJG, Julio etc. to get him.

Too much risk.

[frodo2003]

Sorry FantasyFreak--you touched on his injury history the post before mine also---Good observation too.

[DonBrazi]

To me, the probability of him re-injuring himself somewhere down the line seems extremely high.
He stayed healthy this year, but I would never give up Luck, or a Dez, AJG, Julio etc. to get him.

Too much risk.

If you're going to argue against Gronk, it pretty much has to be along these lines. I don't get the 'But Luck will play for another 4,000 years!' arguments. If you're looking at things that far down the line, it just seems to me like you've a lot to learn about this game. Sit on Luck for the next decade and get zeros at TE or compete for championships while Gronk is healthy with your rotation at QB? Hmm... Just seems like you'd be leaving a ton of value on the table if you passed up a deal around those two. Go QBBC and plug in Gronk. You'll be fine.

Unless that's a SF or 2QB league, of course.

[auggiedoggies]

To me, the probability of him re-injuring himself somewhere down the line seems extremely high.
He stayed healthy this year, but I would never give up Luck, or a Dez, AJG, Julio etc. to get him.

Too much risk.

If you're going to argue against Gronk, it pretty much has to be along these lines. I don't get the 'But Luck will play for another 4,000 years!' arguments. If you're looking at things that far down the line, it just seems to me like you've a lot to learn about this game. Sit on Luck for the next decade and get zeros at TE or compete for championships while Gronk is healthy with your rotation at QB? Hmm... Just seems like you'd be leaving a ton of value on the table if you passed up a deal around those two. Go QBBC and plug in Gronk. You'll be fine.

Unless that's a SF or 2QB league, of course.

Yeah, I just giggle when I hear people talk about a QB for the next 10 years. Who cares? QB production is extremely easy to find in a league like this. Plug in Berger for the next 2-3 years, and then go buy some other old QB for dirt cheap to hold you over after that. Rinse and repeat. Hell, you could buy Matty Ice for 1/5 the cost of luck and get 85% of the production for the next 5 years

[holy_stromboli]

In one of my (pretty standard) 12 team/1QB/1TE 1PPR leagues, here was the top 5 at QB and TE in my league. Keep in mind, both Luck and Gronk are young and elite. One plays the toughest position in sports, the other alengthy injury history.

QB:
1) Rodgers -- 448.1
2) Luck -- 445.7
3) Manning -- 398.7
4) Roethlisberger -- 382.2
5) Brees -- 376

TE:
1) Gronk -- 268.4
2) Graham -- 229.9
3) Gates -- 223.1
4) Bennett -- 221.6
5) Olsen -- 220.8

[clarion contrarion]

To me, the probability of him re-injuring himself somewhere down the line seems extremely high.
He stayed healthy this year, but I would never give up Luck, or a Dez, AJG, Julio etc. to get him.

Too much risk.

If you're going to argue against Gronk, it pretty much has to be along these lines. I don't get the 'But Luck will play for another 4,000 years!' arguments. If you're looking at things that far down the line, it just seems to me like you've a lot to learn about this game. Sit on Luck for the next decade and get zeros at TE or compete for championships while Gronk is healthy with your rotation at QB? Hmm... Just seems like you'd be leaving a ton of value on the table if you passed up a deal around those two. Go QBBC and plug in Gronk. You'll be fine.

Unless that's a SF or 2QB league, of course.

Yeah, I just giggle when I hear people talk about a QB for the next 10 years. Who cares? QB production is extremely easy to find in a league like this. Plug in Berger for the next 2-3 years, and then go buy some other old QB for dirt cheap to hold you over after that. Rinse and repeat. Hell, you could buy Matty Ice for 1/5 the cost of luck and get 85% of the production for the next 5 years

85% seems random enough but based on this year 79% but its not like ryan is on the waiver wire ... unless ryan's owner is moron he isn't coming cheap that means you give value elsewhere to get him .
Now iif I had a team w/ ryan/luck and I wanted a TE upgrade I would be seeing what I could get for ryan not luck . Ryan has a new coach and if you think that quinn coming from seattle is going to let him throw it around like in the past I think you are mistaken
then the 85% or 79% may become 71% or 68% trying overcoming that with gronk. To me ryan would be the best case scenario ....... but if you end up w/ ben ,dalton ,stafford , flacco cutler or taneyhill no way those guys plus gronk are matching luck's output alone - rather have luck and stream TE than taneyhill and gronk for a full season .
The other kicker to me in the NFL once a team figures out you are not the guy the end can come very quickly ben is the guy flacco is the guy they have proven that but they have not been close to where luck is statisically already except ben this year and it took him 10 years to get there (although 2007 was really a good year) ryan has 1 playoff win stafford dalton cutler and tannehill couldd all be out of a job before gronk is even done .... cutler may already be out of a job .
2 years ago rg3 was 7th in qb points and josh freeman was 13th GULP ..... give me luck and any TE and I will take my chances

[Lotto4Life]

In one of my (pretty standard) 12 team/1QB/1TE 1PPR leagues, here was the top 5 at QB and TE in my league. Keep in mind, both Luck and Gronk are young and elite. One plays the toughest position in sports, the other alengthy injury history.

QB:
1) Rodgers -- 448.1
2) Luck -- 445.7
3) Manning -- 398.7
4) Roethlisberger -- 382.2
5) Brees -- 376

TE:
1) Gronk -- 268.4
2) Graham -- 229.9
3) Gates -- 223.1
4) Bennett -- 221.6
5) Olsen -- 220.8

So Luck was 70pts higher than QB5, and Gronk was 48pts higher than TE5. How do they compare to QB12 and TE12, if you don't mind?

[ccj]

On my phone so I'll have to rely on others for some metric crunching, but here are some thoughts:
Gronk only played 15 games this season (rested week 17)
Gronk's per game numbers were down compared to 2011/2012. He was on a snap count to start the season and received less thab 7 targets per game the first four games. Since week 12 and through the playoffs (not vounting week 17) he's averaged over 10 targets per game.
Luck had 40 TDs this year which is 17 more than both his previous seasons. I haven't taken a long look, but I'm not sure any QB has ever had more than two 40 TD pass seasons. All that is to say a regression next season is statistically likely.

Now, I'll address injuries:
four arm surgeries. This was largely due to rushing him back and an infection. I don't think there's any precedent in the NFL for a broken arm to shorten career, recur, or cause a declination in performance.
Two back surgeries. These are concerning, but I believe he's never missed NFL games due to them so a manageable situation.
ACL, this wasn't a non-contact injury that indicates maybe he'll snap another one at any moment. Also he's already clearly recovered and ACLs are no longer a devastating injury for most young players.

Also scoring system will play into this conversation. I play PPR and Pass TD 4. Obviously non-PPR and Pass TD 6 lean towards opposite options.

[georgetown]

The guy said he'd do Gronk, Kaepernick and a 1st next year for Luck, Amaro and the 1.10 this year.

I looked it up and if I averaged out the points scored between Kaepernick and Cutler and added them to what Gronk scored vs Luck and my TEs.

The Gronk and Cutler/Kaepernick combo scored about 40 points more than the Luck/my TEs option this past season in our scoring format.

[clarion contrarion]

The guy said he'd do Gronk, Kaepernick and a 1st next year for Luck, Amaro and the 1.10 this year.

I looked it up and if I averaged out the points scored between Kaepernick and Cutler and added them to what Gronk scored vs Luck and my TEs.

The Gronk and Cutler/Kaepernick combo scored about 40 points more than the Luck/my TEs option this past season in our scoring format.

problem is cutler lost his job this past year and will be on a short leash if he is even the guy... plus he piled up nice stats early in the year but got worse as the year progressed . It sounds like you really want to make the deal but were I you I would not ,thing you have to live with your team so you have to make the call. Kaepernick is not someone I trust as a qb1 and cutler is no longer a qb 1 with all the question marks. If he wants luck now he will want him more later so what is the hurry?

[dlf_jules]

http://youtu.be/zMjW-l8mYBk

This makes me want to trade whatever I can for him to have him on my team. He's easily my favorite player and I'm not even a Patriots fan.

Anyone else feel this way?

Ha! Makes me feel the exact opposite way. I hate how...slow he is (sorry if that's mean or rude or whatever but I don't know the current PC word for it). Makes me uncomfortable watching him.

Gronk: Maybe Obama was 'wasted' when making Deflategate joke

The thing that makes me sad about Gronk is that Chris Farley isn't alive to impersonate him on SNL. That would have been such a natural fit.

[doktor]

The thing that makes me sad about Gronk is that Chris Farley isn't alive to impersonate him on SNL. That would have been such a natural fit.

You, sir, have just won the Internet today!!!!

[Lotto4Life]

And no Patrick Swayze to play Tom Brady.