Are QB's Overvalued in SuperFlex Leagues

[sloth8u]

here's something to take into consideration for any league...it is always much cheaper to draft your guy than it is to try to trade for him. sounds pretty simple, but it is reality in most instances. if you want Luck, jump the fence and take him early, same for any guy out there. far too many times i can pretty much predict the first half of a draft within a few picks by following along with adp on this site. if you want a particular player, step out of line and grab him a round or two early. for example...why is it that owners get away with going wr heavy, and i mean heavy (first 3 or 4 rds) but yet still end up getting a guy like foster or whoever late....its because the rankings that everyone here is following. they have a pretty good inclination of exactly who is going to be available and when.

why bring that up in this discussion? because if your of the belief that qb's arent important in a superflex...and the rest of your league believes they are...why would you expect a discount on one, or expect the other owners to change their line of valuing guys? its no different than participating in a league that rb's are like gold when owners have them. meaning if you have one, you better hold on to him, or if your drafting, you better take a hard look at rb's or you'll never get one. if during your draft, the first 10 picks are qb's, you might want to assume that qb's are going to be valued in your league.

something that often gets over looked in a superflex league, is that the even the lesser qb's carry pretty solid value to your team aswell. most guys are out trying to buy the high end guys at a discount, when really they should be targeting the qb 10-18 at an even greater discount. these lesser options are the qb's that owners may be willing to move at a discount or "fair" value. i would say that this is even more so the approach that should be taken if you choose to ignore the qb position in the first round or two. load up on that high end positional talent and grab yourself 2 solid mid range qb's for a fraction of the expense.

[slaughterrt]

here's something to take into consideration for any league...it is always much cheaper to draft your guy than it is to try to trade for him. sounds pretty simple, but it is reality in most instances. if you want Luck, jump the fence and take him early, same for any guy out there. far too many times i can pretty much predict the first half of a draft within a few picks by following along with adp on this site. if you want a particular player, step out of line and grab him a round or two early. for example...why is it that owners get away with going wr heavy, and i mean heavy (first 3 or 4 rds) but yet still end up getting a guy like foster or whoever late....its because the rankings that everyone here is following. they have a pretty good inclination of exactly who is going to be available and when.

why bring that up in this discussion? because if your of the belief that qb's arent important in a superflex...and the rest of your league believes they are...why would you expect a discount on one, or expect the other owners to change their line of valuing guys? its no different than participating in a league that rb's are like gold when owners have them. meaning if you have one, you better hold on to him, or if your drafting, you better take a hard look at rb's or you'll never get one. if during your draft, the first 10 picks are qb's, you might want to assume that qb's are going to be valued in your league.

something that often gets over looked in a superflex league, is that the even the lesser qb's carry pretty solid value to your team aswell. most guys are out trying to buy the high end guys at a discount, when really they should be targeting the qb 10-18 at an even greater discount. these lesser options are the qb's that owners may be willing to move at a discount or "fair" value. i would say that this is even more so the approach that should be taken if you choose to ignore the qb position in the first round or two. load up on that high end positional talent and grab yourself 2 solid mid range qb's for a fraction of the expense.

Sloth, I think you hit the nail on the head here. How the majority of league owners value different positions, will drive the value of said positions. If most of the owners in a SuperFlex treat it like a 1QB league, then QB values are lower. If owners treat it like a 2QB league, then the prices jump accordingly. The thing is that no league will have every owner valuing everything the same. How boring would that be? Compromise or move on to another owner. But that's how it is in every kind of league.

Edit: Was also thinking about the QB vs another position in the SuperFlex spot. Health. I think it's a common thought process that QBs are less likely to get injured vs other positions. If true, this would be a pretty good reason to rely on a QB than a RB/WR at superflex.

[the_future]

I am in two superflex leagues, 1 I waited on QB in the start up draft (2010) and missed the playoffs for the first 4 years, finally made it in 2014...the reason I made the finals in 2014 was Big Ben and Rivers were my QBs after some trades. In the other one I took QB in the start-up with my first two picks (Luck and Brees in 2012)...havent missed the playoffs yet, and won the ship last year with a suspect group of RBs and WRs. That said, I think owners in superflex take QBs in rookie drafts way earlier than they should. Last year people were talking about Geno and Manuel as top 3 picks, this year it was JFF, Bortles and Teddy. Unless there is an Andrew Luck type of QB in a draft then I am not going to pass on the Bells, Lacys, Hopkins, Watkins, Evans, OBJs of the world to take a rookie QB high.

I agree with most of what you are saying but I believe the bolded portion falls victim to recency bias. A couple years ago, your plan would have backfired with taking T.Rich/Doug Martin/D.Wilson over Andrew Luck.

Teddy was actually a great pick for anyone who took him in the first. Derrick Carr was a steal wherever he went as was Ryan T. a couple years back.

For me, I always draft based upon value. If I rank Mariota ahead of Melvin Gordon, then i'm taking him. Mariota could turn into Russell Wilson or Locker. Gordon could turn into Jamaal Charles or Darren Mcfadden.

What i'm saying is, don't pass on a superstar QB in a Superflex where QB's value is inflated just beasue RB's/WR's have been the better rookies over the past two years.