Travis Kelce's Official Discussion Thread

[_yeti]

Aaron Murray is Alex Smith's backup in KC. He did some pretty nice things at Georgia. Smith's guaranteed money drops steeply after 2016. It's a long shot, but not out of the realm of possibility. Murray could also get a chance if Smith misses any time due to injury next season.

You're ahead of the game on me. Catch enough flack for NFL fanaticism, can't add college to the mix.

That said, not very familiar with majority of the leagues unheralded backups. But I wouldn't upgrade Kelce hoping on a 5th round backup with a draft profile with gems like "Short and short-armed with a low release point that leads to batted balls .. Marginal deep-ball accuracy ... Loses poise under duress ... Possesses a skill set most ideally suited for a backup or No. 3 role" to help save the day.

The Tyrod Taylor's of the world are the exception not the rule and everyone is still debating after a good full season whether he will stick longterm. Crazier things have happened though... Uninitiated to the fella as I am, I would say that the best to hope for if Murray did get slotted in, would be to hope for production as well as Smith has put up. Cant sell short what Alex Smith has done, he is an above-average starting QB in the NFL. He is also more of a winner than some better fantasy producers. One of the absolute hardest jobs in sports... just sucks that Kelce is stuck with him haha

Certainly a long shot, but just food for thought. Clearly they already have decent chemistry, and Murray wouldn't be afraid to throw to Kelce down the middle of the field: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FY14YWZal9s

But he was so open I could have thrown that TD... Yeah, I mean these things happen, I have Osweiler and Taylor on my roster. Not opposed to mining for a cheap upgrade (though I would bet against him being one). Either way, can you truly factor it into a Kelce projection? The speculation is too distant and uncertain. Where I am with him, if I own him, I hold him. But I'm not breaking the bank, or even opening the checkbook to trade for him, and just think his upside got cold water thrown on it. I wanted to see him in free agency go make a splash somewhere. Two water metaphors in as many sentences, I'm on fire

[Pullo Vision]

With the TE wasteland and Kelce's pace this year for one of the best TE seasons of all time, people are all over the map on Kelce's value. Where do you rank him, what's his trade value to you?

[Pac_Eddy]

Invaluable to a contender.

I looked at all my dynasties. Travis Kelce is on the current (or tied to #1) seed in all seven leagues.

[MacDaddy123]

Invaluable to a contender.

I looked at all my dynasties. Travis Kelce is on the current (or tied to #1) seed in all seven leagues.

I just looked through my 8 dynasty leagues, Kelce is on the roster of 2 of the 8 teams in 1st place in my leagues.

That said, many of my leagues are much deeper than average leagues, so 1 stud has lesser effect.
6 of the 8 leagues use full IDP, though 2 of those 6 leagues, 1st place team have Kelce on their roster.

None of my 2 offensive players only 1st place teams have Kelce on their roster.

Value will be all over the map on Kelce due to his age and his production.
His age will say sell high, his production says buy now.

Issue is you just don't know how much longer he can keep up this production.
Most would like to think another 2-3 years, possibly more.

The problem is that for most, when the age wall hits, it hits hard, and fast.

So Kelce is an EXTREMELY productive player right now, perhaps even the #1 player in fantasy right now when positional scarcity is taken into account. However, due to his age, he is also a high risk player.

Very high risk, very high reward is why his value is all over the map.

[Cameron Giles]

With the TE wasteland and Kelce's pace this year for one of the best TE seasons of all time, people are all over the map on Kelce's value. Where do you rank him, what's his trade value to you?

KTC seems to have him around an early-to-mid 1st (1.04-1.07) which I think is fair. But, only a contender would consider paying that.

But, when the offseason gets here Kelce will go from league winner to "TE who's going to turn 34 next season, there's no way he can keep this up". And people won't be willing to pay.

Honestly, I think if you have Kelce and you're a contender, just ride him off into the sunset and enjoy the production. He might end up playing into his late 30s like Tony Gonzalez and still having TE1 seasons.

[Shcritters]

Yup, he's in the 'nobody will pay what's he's actually worth' range now.

At the beginning of last year a rebuilding team in my TE Super-Prem league (1.5 ppr, .15/yd receiving) sold him for a 1st and Trautman. The owner has been getting ripped ever since... but honestly didn't think it was a bad trade at the time. At this point he's scored 355 pts, 130pts ahead of Andrews (the #2 TE). It is crazy the positional advantage that he has over anyone else.

I don't know how much longer he can keep this up, but hope it lasts for a long while. He's just so fun to watch.

[Pullo Vision]

With the TE wasteland and Kelce's pace this year for one of the best TE seasons of all time, people are all over the map on Kelce's value. Where do you rank him, what's his trade value to you?

KTC seems to have him around an early-to-mid 1st (1.04-1.07) which I think is fair. But, only a contender would consider paying that.

But, when the offseason gets here Kelce will go from league winner to "TE who's going to turn 34 next season, there's no way he can keep this up". And people won't be willing to pay.

Honestly, I think if you have Kelce and you're a contender, just ride him off into the sunset and enjoy the production. He might end up playing into his late 30s like Tony Gonzalez and still having TE1 seasons.

I've heard two arguments for Kelce's value the last week-
1- he's old and doesn't merit more than around 2 2nds in trade value
2- he's producing at an elite level, has a massive lead on the TE field, has a few more years of floor TE1 production, and a good contract/situation so he'll be a starter for that time. He's worth two 1sts and change.

The 1st argument isn't novel or compelling to me. I wouldn't sell if that was the best offer, even if I were a rebuilder. I'd hold to sell next season. In one league I'm in (consider it my main league) my team and another contender have been struggling at TE all year and been hitting up rebuilders for help all season. I have expendable draft capital and he doesn't. I'd easily add to the mid 1st I have to lock up TE, rather than hoping to get 7 points. Let's go Tonyan!

The 2nd argument is much more interesting, since it bucks the ageist bias to focus on the positional value. Heck, on a rebuilder, I could see sniffing around to see if the value is right, just to sell next season.

[frerichs5]

With the TE wasteland and Kelce's pace this year for one of the best TE seasons of all time, people are all over the map on Kelce's value. Where do you rank him, what's his trade value to you?

KTC seems to have him around an early-to-mid 1st (1.04-1.07) which I think is fair. But, only a contender would consider paying that.

But, when the offseason gets here Kelce will go from league winner to "TE who's going to turn 34 next season, there's no way he can keep this up". And people won't be willing to pay.

Honestly, I think if you have Kelce and you're a contender, just ride him off into the sunset and enjoy the production. He might end up playing into his late 30s like Tony Gonzalez and still having TE1 seasons.

I've heard two arguments for Kelce's value the last week-
1- he's old and doesn't merit more than around 2 2nds in trade value
2- he's producing at an elite level, has a massive lead on the TE field, has a few more years of floor TE1 production, and a good contract/situation so he'll be a starter for that time. He's worth two 1sts and change.

The 1st argument isn't novel or compelling to me. I wouldn't sell if that was the best offer, even if I were a rebuilder. I'd hold to sell next season. In one league I'm in (consider it my main league) my team and another contender have been struggling at TE all year and been hitting up rebuilders for help all season. I have expendable draft capital and he doesn't. I'd easily add to the mid 1st I have to lock up TE, rather than hoping to get 7 points. Let's go Tonyan!

The 2nd argument is much more interesting, since it bucks the ageist bias to focus on the positional value. Heck, on a rebuilder, I could see sniffing around to see if the value is right, just to sell next season.

I don’t disagree with this. I’d only add that values are very league dependent. If I have Kelce as a rebuilder, and the best offer I can get is two 2nds, I have to strongly consider it. If that’s the best offer I can get this year, I have no reason to believe I will get a better offer next year. Whether I pulled the trigger on the trade or not is another story and depends just how deep in a rebuild I am.

[MacDaddy123]

With the TE wasteland and Kelce's pace this year for one of the best TE seasons of all time, people are all over the map on Kelce's value. Where do you rank him, what's his trade value to you?

KTC seems to have him around an early-to-mid 1st (1.04-1.07) which I think is fair. But, only a contender would consider paying that.

But, when the offseason gets here Kelce will go from league winner to "TE who's going to turn 34 next season, there's no way he can keep this up". And people won't be willing to pay.

Honestly, I think if you have Kelce and you're a contender, just ride him off into the sunset and enjoy the production. He might end up playing into his late 30s like Tony Gonzalez and still having TE1 seasons.

I've heard two arguments for Kelce's value the last week-
1- he's old and doesn't merit more than around 2 2nds in trade value
2- he's producing at an elite level, has a massive lead on the TE field, has a few more years of floor TE1 production, and a good contract/situation so he'll be a starter for that time. He's worth two 1sts and change.

The 1st argument isn't novel or compelling to me. I wouldn't sell if that was the best offer, even if I were a rebuilder. I'd hold to sell next season. In one league I'm in (consider it my main league) my team and another contender have been struggling at TE all year and been hitting up rebuilders for help all season. I have expendable draft capital and he doesn't. I'd easily add to the mid 1st I have to lock up TE, rather than hoping to get 7 points. Let's go Tonyan!

The 2nd argument is much more interesting, since it bucks the ageist bias to focus on the positional value. Heck, on a rebuilder, I could see sniffing around to see if the value is right, just to sell next season.

If I am a rebuilder, and someone mentions two 1st for Kelce, he's gone today.
I'm not waiting until next year.

I just traded away Cooper Kupp for two 23 1sts just days before his season ended.
When the end comes, more often than not, it comes quickly.
Seem to be few long, slow declines.

[Cameron Giles]

With the TE wasteland and Kelce's pace this year for one of the best TE seasons of all time, people are all over the map on Kelce's value. Where do you rank him, what's his trade value to you?

KTC seems to have him around an early-to-mid 1st (1.04-1.07) which I think is fair. But, only a contender would consider paying that.

But, when the offseason gets here Kelce will go from league winner to "TE who's going to turn 34 next season, there's no way he can keep this up". And people won't be willing to pay.

Honestly, I think if you have Kelce and you're a contender, just ride him off into the sunset and enjoy the production. He might end up playing into his late 30s like Tony Gonzalez and still having TE1 seasons.

I've heard two arguments for Kelce's value the last week-
1- he's old and doesn't merit more than around 2 2nds in trade value
2- he's producing at an elite level, has a massive lead on the TE field, has a few more years of floor TE1 production, and a good contract/situation so he'll be a starter for that time. He's worth two 1sts and change.

The 1st argument isn't novel or compelling to me. I wouldn't sell if that was the best offer, even if I were a rebuilder. I'd hold to sell next season. In one league I'm in (consider it my main league) my team and another contender have been struggling at TE all year and been hitting up rebuilders for help all season. I have expendable draft capital and he doesn't. I'd easily add to the mid 1st I have to lock up TE, rather than hoping to get 7 points. Let's go Tonyan!

The 2nd argument is much more interesting, since it bucks the ageist bias to focus on the positional value. Heck, on a rebuilder, I could see sniffing around to see if the value is right, just to sell next season.

Two firsts is definitely on the peak side, and I think it will be hard to get that in the offseason when people tend to be more long-term, age, and rookie focused.

I think the best value is somewhere in the middle. I'd buy for a 1st and a 2nd. He's just too elite to give away for very little. I'd feel comfortable selling for that price or higher.

[Menace2010]

I've been trying for over a month to add Kelce from a 1-12 team, even some rebuilds are just valuing him too high. I offered Bateman and a 2023 1st, he asked for D. Smith + the 1st and I just can't see pulling the trigger on that... so his value is definitely league dependent.

[Pullo Vision]

I don’t disagree with this. I’d only add that values are very league dependent. If I have Kelce as a rebuilder, and the best offer I can get is two 2nds, I have to strongly consider it. If that’s the best offer I can get this year, I have no reason to believe I will get a better offer next year. Whether I pulled the trigger on the trade or not is another story and depends just how deep in a rebuild I am.

Certainly league dependent, but I wouldn't assume that it's the best offer I can get next season. Year after year, playoff aspirants fall apart, teams trying to tank go the "wrong" way.

But really, I'd consider being unable to get an offer better than 2 2nds a failure of creativity/effort on my part. Sometimes, it's a question of timing, sometimes just adding value to get the right return.

If I am a rebuilder, and someone mentions two 1st for Kelce, he's gone today.
I'm not waiting until next year.

I just traded away Cooper Kupp for two 23 1sts just days before his season ended.
When the end comes, more often than not, it comes quickly.
Seem to be few long, slow declines.

I recall an argument that TEs age slower than, say, RBs or speed receivers. Kelce will tail off to mid/low TE1 production and eventually TE2 numbers. That doesn't speak to his dynasty value, though.

Depending on where the 1sts fall, I could see could see taking 2. Hard to get interested in two late 1sts in this draft class, but if one was mid, I might do it. All depends on league dynamics.

[Pac_Eddy]

I've been trying for over a month to add Kelce from a 1-12 team, even some rebuilds are just valuing him too high. I offered Bateman and a 2023 1st, he asked for D. Smith + the 1st and I just can't see pulling the trigger on that... so his value is definitely league dependent.

That would be tempting if you're a playoff team.

[moishetreats]

Every once in a while there is a player who seems to be beyond the typical injury/age decline. LT, AP, Brady, T Gonzalez, Rice, etc. I will almost never predict that a player will become one of those types. Not Mahomes, not Jefferson, no one. They're just too much of an outlier.

Almost never.

Kelce's career path to those point is looking pretty convincing that he's on that outlier path. No slowdown, insane unparalleled production for six seasons, no injury history, and at a position where a player can lose some athleticism and still produce. As of now, you'd have to convince me that Kelce is NOT going to continue producing incredible for the next few seasons.

[Cameron Giles]

I've been trying for over a month to add Kelce from a 1-12 team, even some rebuilds are just valuing him too high. I offered Bateman and a 2023 1st, he asked for D. Smith + the 1st and I just can't see pulling the trigger on that... so his value is definitely league dependent.

I think that's a pretty fair counteroffer on his part. I'm assuming you're a playoff team, so we're talking a mid-to-late 1st and an upside WR2 for an unparalleled positional advantage. Kelce is currently putting up high-end WR1 production as a TE.