B.Gabbert hates Blackmon?

[Chris_R]

I don't care how much people love Calvin Johnson and AJ Green but they would NOT be putting up any kind of big numbers in Jacksonville, this makes it very difficult to evalute players in these ridiculously horrible situations. I've been saying for years that Crabtree would be a fantasy force on a pass first team opposed to the worst imaginable situation for a WR.

Blackmon's lack of production is more about the pathetic state of the Jags as a whole than Blackmon or Gabbert.

You've said this numerous times and it's completely untrue. Were you not playing fantasy football in 2008? Because maybe you missed Calvin posting a 78/1331/12 line that year, but I'd love for you to tell me what Detroit had better then Jacksonville right now. It wasn't a better QB, offensive line, RB, supporting WR's, or a TE, so maybe you know something that I don't? AJG is also in a completely different stratosphere then Blackmon, which isn't revisionist history it was the case as prospects.


I also wish you would stop trying to throw Crabtree in the mix everytime this comes up. Crabtree, like Blackmon, isn't anywhere close to a Megatron or a AJG. It's literally not even close. Megatron and AJG would put up big numbers under any circumstances and Calvin already has so it would be nice if we could not act like it's never happened. Crabtree is an average WR who puts up solid numbers, you can blame the QB, system, and everything else for the reason why his numbers are what they are but nobody is mistaking Crabtree for a ground breaking talent but yourself.


Blackmon is more physically talented then Crabtree, but he's still not in that elite class of WR's and I never saw him as that type of prospect or having that high of a ceiling. That said, I'm still buying low in as many leagues as I can right now. I love when the top RB or WR prospect gets all this hype during the summer, doesn't blow up in their 1st year and you get a discounted price on them a few months later. Blackmon has too much talent to not amount to anything, and the QB situation doesn't concern me because as bad as they are they will have ample opportunities to get a stud franchise QB and change things around in the bat of an eye.


But let's not try and make a point out of hypothetical situations. You may as well just say TO in his prime would suck here too, since it can't be proved. But we can can that Megatron argument, because I'm pretty sure you've completely forgotten how bad that 0-16 team was. May just be me, but I'd take Gabbert, MJD, Jennings, Cecil Shorts, Laurent Robinson, and Mercedes Lewis 1000 times out of 1000 when the other option is Dan Orlovsky, Drew Stanton, Kevin Smith, Keary Colbert, and Michael Gaines.

[49ersFaithful80]

I don't care how much people love Calvin Johnson and AJ Green but they would NOT be putting up any kind of big numbers in Jacksonville, this makes it very difficult to evalute players in these ridiculously horrible situations. I've been saying for years that Crabtree would be a fantasy force on a pass first team opposed to the worst imaginable situation for a WR.

Blackmon's lack of production is more about the pathetic state of the Jags as a whole than Blackmon or Gabbert.

You've said this numerous times and it's completely untrue. Were you not playing fantasy football in 2008? Because maybe you missed Calvin posting a 78/1331/12 line that year, but I'd love for you to tell me what Detroit had better then Jacksonville right now. It wasn't a better QB, offensive line, RB, supporting WR's, or a TE, so maybe you know something that I don't? AJG is also in a completely different stratosphere then Blackmon, which isn't revisionist history it was the case as prospects.


I also wish you would stop trying to throw Crabtree in the mix everytime this comes up. Crabtree, like Blackmon, isn't anywhere close to a Megatron or a AJG. It's literally not even close. Megatron and AJG would put up big numbers under any circumstances and Calvin already has so it would be nice if we could not act like it's never happened. Crabtree is an average WR who puts up solid numbers, you can blame the QB, system, and everything else for the reason why his numbers are what they are but nobody is mistaking Crabtree for a ground breaking talent but yourself.


Blackmon is more physically talented then Crabtree, but he's still not in that elite class of WR's and I never saw him as that type of prospect or having that high of a ceiling. That said, I'm still buying low in as many leagues as I can right now. I love when the top RB or WR prospect gets all this hype during the summer, doesn't blow up in their 1st year and you get a discounted price on them a few months later. Blackmon has too much talent to not amount to anything, and the QB situation doesn't concern me because as bad as they are they will have ample opportunities to get a stud franchise QB and change things around in the bat of an eye.


But let's not try and make a point out of hypothetical situations. You may as well just say TO in his prime would suck here too, since it can't be proved. But we can can that Megatron argument, because I'm pretty sure you've completely forgotten how bad that 0-16 team was. May just be me, but I'd take Gabbert, MJD, Jennings, Cecil Shorts, Laurent Robinson, and Mercedes Lewis 1000 times out of 1000 when the other option is Dan Orlovsky, Drew Stanton, Kevin Smith, Keary Colbert, and Michael Gaines.

dude we have had this same exact argument multiple times and you keep throwing out the Calvin Johnson example even though it was 100% different in every single way than SF's. When Calvin killed it that year, the lions were in pass every single play mode in the 2nd half of every single game and the lions as a whole ended up being one of the most pass heavy teams in the NFL. Plus he absolutely dominated the targets. While Crabtree plays on a team that is always winning (never in pass heavy mode), runs the ball more than any other team in the NFL and has an extremely conservative below average passer he almost never throws the ball down field. Do you see the differences in these situations?

secondly Shaun Hill >>>>> Blaine Gabbert, you can check their career stats if you want its not even close

The major difference in Blackmon's situation is 1) one of the worst QB's i've ever seen 2) he doesn't get even 1/10 of the targets Calvin got that year 3) Most importantly, the Jags are still committed to the run while the lions went out and game planned to chuck the ball at Calvin as many times as possible.

lol as far as the Crabtree v. Blackmon argument, they are pretty much identical prospects with very similar playing styles.

Crabtree Blackmon
Height: 6'1 Height: 6'1
Weight: 215 Weight: 207
Arm length: 34 1/4 Arm length: 32 1/2
Hands: 9 1/4 Hands: 9 1/4

so Crabtree having longer arms is pretty much the only difference physically, now I'm assuming your going to say Blackmon is faster while referencing his 100% bullshit pro day 40 time which I believe was a 4.46 Everyone knows that these times are completely inaccurate and understand that blackmon is not fast, period. Both of these receivers lack ideal top end speed.

The only real difference I see here is that Crabtree played in 11 games his rookie season and recorded 48/625/2 TD's and has improved in each season. While Blackmon has recorded a couple of DUI's and caught a ball here and there. On the other end Crabtree is on pace for a 78/906/7 line this season.

Crabtree > Blackmon

[Jfever]

I'd certainly agree that Crabtree is better than Blackmon. Now. In two years I think if we revist the issue opinions will likely differ. I believe we are seeing Crabtree's ceiling come to frutition this season. I like the steady improvement he has shown and I also like that he has evolved into a very nice / dependable wr3 with occational wr1 upside. He is a nice asset for any dynasty franchise. Just happens to be on a team that is rarely in pass / catch up mode. On a run first / defensively talented team. = not a good place to be for a fantasy wr.

Admittedly, time will tell as to what all shakes down in Jacksonville. But I think within two years either Gabbert is better or he is an afterthought. Within two years MJD is gone and a new young sparkplug is back there running the ball. Within two years the 0-line is at least minimally improved, and finally, within two years, Blackmon has learned a more complete route tree and has become mentally more comfortable with the NFL game and it has slowed down a bit for him. The NFL changes very quickly now a days with the draft and free agents. I think Blackmon has better run after the catch ability than Crabtree and is stronger at battling for contested balls - and is slightly faster (4.4 vs 4.54) and has a slightly better vertical and long jump. I think Crabtree has better hands and a slightly larger catch radius, and is a much better run blocker.

The thing is, I don't see S.F. changing anything anytime soon. Why would they? They have a very balanced and talented team on both sides of the ball. Their philosophies and approach work, and I see Crabtree's role staying exactly like it is right now with maybe some marginal increases in targets. Conversly, in two years, Blackmon's situation could and will likely do a complete 180.

time will tell.

[Chris_R]

dude we have had this same exact argument multiple times and you keep throwing out the Calvin Johnson example even though it was 100% different in every single way than SF's. When Calvin killed it that year, the lions were in pass every single play mode in the 2nd half of every single game and the lions as a whole ended up being one of the most pass heavy teams in the NFL. Plus he absolutely dominated the targets. While Crabtree plays on a team that is always winning (never in pass heavy mode), runs the ball more than any other team in the NFL and has an extremely conservative below average passer he almost never throws the ball down field. Do you see the differences in these situations?

secondly Shaun Hill >>>>> Blaine Gabbert, you can check their career stats if you want its not even close

The major difference in Blackmon's situation is 1) one of the worst QB's i've ever seen 2) he doesn't get even 1/10 of the targets Calvin got that year 3) Most importantly, the Jags are still committed to the run while the lions went out and game planned to chuck the ball at Calvin as many times as possible.

lol as far as the Crabtree v. Blackmon argument, they are pretty much identical prospects with very similar playing styles.

Crabtree Blackmon
Height: 6'1 Height: 6'1
Weight: 215 Weight: 207
Arm length: 34 1/4 Arm length: 32 1/2
Hands: 9 1/4 Hands: 9 1/4

so Crabtree having longer arms is pretty much the only difference physically, now I'm assuming your going to say Blackmon is faster while referencing his 100% bullshit pro day 40 time which I believe was a 4.46 Everyone knows that these times are completely inaccurate and understand that blackmon is not fast, period. Both of these receivers lack ideal top end speed.

The only real difference I see here is that Crabtree played in 11 games his rookie season and recorded 48/625/2 TD's and has improved in each season. While Blackmon has recorded a couple of DUI's and caught a ball here and there. On the other end Crabtree is on pace for a 78/906/7 line this season.

Crabtree > Blackmon

Regardless of the small differences in situations, it's just not true or accurate to say "nobody would put up numbers in this offense". The Jags suck aka are behind nearly all the time aka have to throw all the time also. My point is let's not use hypothetical situations that can't be proved(which you like to do a lot aka if Crabtree was on the Patriots he'd have like 3000 receiving yards), especially when you do it all of the time. Calvin also dominated targets because he was just that good, and there was hardly anyone else to throw to seeing as how that's more then likely the worst roster top to bottom in NFL history, if they didn't have Calvin it would easily take that claim.


Shaun Hill has no place in this argument as he was on your favorite team in 2008, which is the year in question, and he didn't play for Detroit until 2 years later. Maybe you think Orlovsky and Stanton rotating at QB behind the worse line ever is an upgrade though.

So my point is that it makes no sense to make comments like "nobody, even Calvin Johnson would put up numbers on this team" because Calvin has put up excellent numbers on a worse team, thus making that point completely irrelevant. You can bring up target numbers, and anything else, lets focus on the facts: That 2008 Lions team was far worse then this Jaguars team and Calvin did put up numbers. It seems like your either saying Calvin or AJG wouldn't succeed on this bad team, or if Crabtree played on this team he'd be an all pro.


Blackmon is also a rookie, and he's not the same type of player that Megatron or AJG is so I wouldn't expect him to be putting up pro bowl numbers. Calvin in his 2nd year would demand more targets then Blackon as a rookie, don't you think? That kinda goes into why he would be producing in this situation, because he's better, and was further a long in his development. AJG would be doing the same but Megatron is easier to prove since he's done it.


I don't have any problem with you saying Crabtree>Blackmon, I've never even argued that point. I just like Blackmon now because Shorts is playing well, Jacksonville sucks, and Blackmon hasn't produced really well yet. It's a great time to buy low on the #1 WR prospect this year. Longterm it's up in the air who could end up being better, as prospects I had them ranked really close coming out and with him going to Jacksonville I certainly didn't expect him to come out on a tear. It just gets old to have to hear every other thread how Crabtree would be this if he played for a different team. He doesn't right now, so what he produces are his stats.


We could play that game for every person involved in fantasy football. I wonder what Dwayne Bowe would do with a real QB, or what J Stewart would do with opportunities, or what Sanchez would do with WR's, or what Fitz would do with a better QB. Some players are good enough to produce regardless of their situation, Megatron and AJG being two of those types. I don't think Crabtree sucks, I have a higher opinion of him in fantasy then I do real life tbh, I view him in the same light as Sam Bradford. #1 QB and #1 WR prospect who aren't bust, they don't suck, but they aren't elite talents on the field. I don't think that's a bad thing at all.


I do think Blackmon has a ton of talent and for where his value is right now I'm a buyer.

[TheOracle]

Wait, so you're saying if you put a WR with the worst QB situation in the league, his numbers would go down from Stafford/Dalton? You don't say.

Justin Blackmon and Michael Crabtree are not of the same caliber talent wise as Calvin Johnson/AJ Green. I don't think this is a controversial subject. If you want to discuss Blackmon and Crabtree we can. I think they're very similar talent wise. I think Blackmon's character concerns are overblown but still legitimate; I think Crabtree's injury issues are more serious. Blackmon's situation is currently horrible, but fluid. They could scrap Gabbert, he could improve, they could change OCs, etc. Michael Crabtree is pretty locked in on a team that runs the football and has a great defense, meaning they're not throwing at the end of games. Crabtree's floor is higher, but I think it's fair to say that Blackmon's ceiling is higher. I think they're close enough that my preference would lie in the needs of my team. In a vacuum I'd probably take Crabtree first.

[DYNOmite]

The good news for Blackmon is that he'll have either Barkley or Smith throwing the ball to him next year.

[DYNOmite]

Wait, so you're saying if you put a WR with the worst QB situation in the league, his numbers would go down from Stafford/Dalton? You don't say.

Justin Blackmon and Michael Crabtree are not of the same caliber talent wise as Calvin Johnson/AJ Green. I don't think this is a controversial subject. If you want to discuss Blackmon and Crabtree we can. I think they're very similar talent wise. I think Blackmon's character concerns are overblown but still legitimate; I think Crabtree's injury issues are more serious. Blackmon's situation is currently horrible, but fluid. They could scrap Gabbert, he could improve, they could change OCs, etc. Michael Crabtree is pretty locked in on a team that runs the football and has a great defense, meaning they're not throwing at the end of games. Crabtree's floor is higher, but I think it's fair to say that Blackmon's ceiling is higher. I think they're close enough that my preference would lie in the needs of my team. In a vacuum I'd probably take Crabtree first.

I agree with most of what you posted, but I'd take my chances with Blackmon over Crabtree. Like you said, we know what Crabtree is going to do, which while solid there's little upside. Blackmon isn't in the elite tier of NFL WR's but he has more potential as a 100 catch guy than Crabtree ever will. It may take a couple more years but I see Roddy White potential with Blackmon.

[Jfever]

Well said Chris, Oracle, and Dyno. I agree with nearly everything you put down.

I too place Blackmon's talent and overall style of play close to Crabtree's, and team needs would drive my opinion to whom I'd rather own. On a team with a very solid Wr corp and some room, I might choose to stash Blackmon and wait till he blossoms. On a team that could use some startable help - a dependable WR3 with some upside, I could see making a move for Crabtree. I too think at this current time that Crabtree certainly has a higher floor but all in all, I'd say Blackmon has potential for a higher ceiling as well. therefrore - in most cases, I'd likely lean toward Blackmon on my rosters.

[Spinkso]

Well. How do you then explain the complete and obvious skewed number of targets to lesser talents

Maybe your valuation of Blackmon was massively flawed. Blackmon creates no separation, drops balls, and is a sloppy player. He had these issues at OSU, but a lot of people over looked them because of his measurables and what he could do against B12 spare defenses.
Just because he was drafted inside the top 10 doesn't equate to him being a greater talent than a Cecil Shorts type player who plays with his head on fire, gets open, and makes plays when given the opportunity.

Ok. Not to be too nit picky here but If my evaluation of Blackmon's talents are off and IF Cecil Shorts is the more "talented player" then... every single fantasy football owner / player, every single NFL scout, owner, and player personel evaluater is / was wrong as well. Blackmon is being painted in a very poor light here. I'm telling you... go back and look at last weekends game. Blackmon WAS open and DID have seperation on numerous occations only to have Gabbert look past him and force a ball toward a wr that was better covered.

I'm not going to dissagree and say that Blackmon is a stud right now. I do see the growing pains and he has up to this point dissapointed, but, in that system, with that qb, I'm sure patience with him will be needed. It's not like he went to the Patriots, Packers, Saints, or something of the sort. No. he went to probably the worst possible situation he possibly could have. And generalized statements of Blackmon is a "sloppy player"... seem much more opinion based and without a lot of factual evidence. Bottom line - Play calling is horrific, running game without MJD is just as horrific, and qb play is about as bad as it gets in the league. I would say that the combination of all of that would equate to a stunted growth / acclimation period for the young wr.

Mike Williams and Charles Rogers were top 10 picks. Marques Colston was drafted in the 7th round. Was Mike Williams or Rogers a more talented player?
I've looked at NFL Rewind, looked at nerdy football sabermetrics and everything tells me the same thing. His routes are terrible, he's not creating separation either. The closest thing I can see that looks like he's open is when the opposition was in zone coverage.

[tstafford]

I'm kind of surprised by some of what's being said here. I don't think there's a clear recollection of what talent evaluators/scouts/draft nicks were saying about Blackmon. No one ever said he was a top tier talent. I know I repeatedly argued that he probably wasn't even the most talented WR in this class.

I've had the displeasure of watching several JAX games (as I am assigned to follow the AFC South for DLF) and what I see is a frustrated player who isn't putting out max effort and may not have the talent to overcome playing with a bottom five QB in the NFL. I watched a lot of Blackmon tape from OSU and my read was things came easy to him there. The entire offense was geared around him and it impressed me that D-coordinators knew this but largely couldn't stop him anyway. At the time, it appeared meaningful that Blackmon was able to burn P. Amukamara early and often. Now I'm not so sure. NYG fans will know that he is repeatedly picked on when he's asked to do anything approximating single coverage. But still my take was that he would struggle to get a lot of separation in the NFL and was probably more or less a possession WR with some upside.

Blackmon has the talent to become a fantasy WR2. He needs to step it up and he certainly would benefit from a new QB.

[DYNOmite]

Mike Williams and Charles Rogers were top 10 picks. Marques Colston was drafted in the 7th round. Was Mike Williams or Rogers a more talented player?
I've looked at NFL Rewind, looked at nerdy football sabermetrics and everything tells me the same thing. His routes are terrible, he's not creating separation either. The closest thing I can see that looks like he's open is when the opposition was in zone coverage.

Once the season starts draft position doesn't mean much other how much the team liked him going into the draft. High picks usually get much more leeway since teams never want to admit someone is a bust.

Tons of WR's have had lousy rookie years - Victor Cruz didn't even see a target in his. Blackmon hasn't looked good but just take a look at how Shorts did his rookie year - 2 for 30 yards. While there are some guys who play great from day one, it usually takes WR's time to adjust to the NFL.

[balaberda]

Can someone tell me why Gabbert is still a QB in the NFL. Blackmon looks great against a good defense without Gabbert. Jimmy Clausen 2.0 is his new name.

[seahawks506]

Well, Chad Henne has been really impressive, so I wouldn't be surprised if this is the last start Gabbert ever makes.

[steelman]

You know who else hates Blackmon? The Houston Texans, because he's destroying them.

[lukeb]

220 receiving yards...to be honest, I didn't think he had this type of upside at all. I'll have to go watch the game on Rewind again. I know he had a couple of long plays (one 60 yarder, one 80 yarder), but I want to see all his targets.