Chris Ivory in 2013: What does the future hold?

[CluelessJoe]

Chris Ivory's currently available in a 12 team league of mine and I imagine he'll end up coming off the board this week so I'm agonizing over whether to burn a high waiver on him. I'm a huge fan of his talent, but I don't really have the room to deal with a 2+ year project. Any chance Ivory gets out of New Orleans after the season or is he expected back? Anyone else extremely high on his dynasty outlook or am I off base here? Any thoughts would be appreciated.

[Pullo Vision]

You're not off-base. A number of people have liked him for a year or more. Not certain he's rosterable for a 2+ year period. Depends on roster depth.

I personally don't like him that much cause he has a litany of injury issues in extremely limited playing time, though I guess you could flip him if he leaves for a better opportunity.

[JJinMB]

I am in the same boat, I have #3 waiver in a 16 team league and he is sitting there...do I burn my high waiver priority on someone who is sitting behind Thomas, Sproles and Ingram.

I want to as I think he is super-talented, but maaaan, that is down on the depth chart...

[micmechanic]

I scooped him up with the #12 waiver claim. His is a RFA next year, so who knows what will happen with him. He looks healthy for once and quite impressive. What's the worst thing that can happen, you drop him after he re-signs with the Saints? Best case scenario, he goes to Det, Dal, G.B, Indy. If he goes to AZ, I'd drop him. That place is where RB's go to get injured and see their careers die before our very eyes. :salute:

[ninotoreS]

If I understand NFL restricted free-agency correctly (and this is a big 'if', if I have something wrong here please correct me, guys), the Saints will have to, at minimum, quadruple Ivory's current salary via a second-round tender offer in order to have a realistic shot at keeping him. The Saints surely can't risk offering Ivory the lowest tender if they truly want to keep him, because as an undrafted player other teams won't have to give up any picks to the Saints in order to get him.

So the question is, will the Saints be willing to shell out significant money to Ivory in 2013, just to keep him buried on their depth chart? It seems pretty unlikely to me.

[oppy]

If I understand NFL restricted free-agency correctly (and this is a big 'if', if I have something wrong here please correct me, guys), the Saints will have to, at minimum, quadruple Ivory's current salary via a second-round tender offer in order to have a realistic shot at keeping him. The Saints surely can't risk offering Ivory the lowest tender if they truly want to keep him, because as an undrafted player other teams won't have to give up any picks to the Saints in order to get him.

So the question is, will the Saints be willing to shell out significant money to Ivory in 2013, just to keep him buried on their depth chart? It seems pretty unlikely to me.

Someone should confirm this, as this significantly changes his value.

Right now I'd still be content making a play for him next season, after Sproles is healthy again etc. Right now he's got hype since he looked so good last week despite getting 0 carries the rest of the season. I had him early in the season, dropped him, and picked him up before last week when I heard about the Sproles injury... and I've had some interest in him this week.

[CluelessJoe]

I saw this posted on another site, but it seems as though the Saints have some major cap issues heading into 2013. How realistic is re-signing Ivory when you have 5 RB's and the worst defense in the league to fix?

ESPN's John Clayton, one of the best in the business at crunching salary-cap numbers, projects the Saints at $16.1 million over the cap next year. And after the Saints back-loaded so many of their new and restructured contracts this past offseason, I did a breakdown that showed the combined salary-cap figures of 10 of their highest-priced players will leap from $37.1 million this year to $85.4 million next year.

[holy_stromboli]

I saw this posted on another site, but it seems as though the Saints have some major cap issues heading into 2013. How realistic is re-signing Ivory when you have 5 RB's and the worst defense in the league to fix?

ESPN's John Clayton, one of the best in the business at crunching salary-cap numbers, projects the Saints at $16.1 million over the cap next year. And after the Saints back-loaded so many of their new and restructured contracts this past offseason, I did a breakdown that showed the combined salary-cap figures of 10 of their highest-priced players will leap from $37.1 million this year to $85.4 million next year.

Don't forget Jimmy Graham will be wanting a new contract here either in the offseason or the following year.

[CluelessJoe]

This guy is just way too talented to not be owned in dynasty leagues. Fun to watch!!!

[Chris_R]

So everyone wondering why NO didn't just trade him for a 6th is seeing why. He's far too valuable, and I doubt anyone was offering a 2nd or 3rd round pick. He would be so appealing on teams who could use him consistently, for now he's a stash that you have to be patient with. NO is in no rush to trade any of those backs. Ingram still isn't going anywhere, Sproles isn't, and neither is Pierre. So he's got to leave to see his value inflate otherwise he's a talented player that you won't be able to use in fantasy leagues.

[ninotoreS]

So everyone wondering why NO didn't just trade him for a 6th is seeing why. He's far too valuable, and I doubt anyone was offering a 2nd or 3rd round pick. He would be so appealing on teams who could use him consistently, for now he's a stash that you have to be patient with. NO is in no rush to trade any of those backs. Ingram still isn't going anywhere, Sproles isn't, and neither is Pierre. So he's got to leave to see his value inflate otherwise he's a talented player that you won't be able to use in fantasy leagues.

You're assuming any team even offered a 6th or 7th round pick for Ivory at the deadline.

I suspect no team did. And I suspect if they had, the Saints would have traded Ivory (I don't care what Vitt said to the press, Loomis calls those shots, not him).

Surely front-offices around the league realize they can probably make a play for Ivory this off-season without giving up any picks at all for him.

[Chris_R]

So everyone wondering why NO didn't just trade him for a 6th is seeing why. He's far too valuable, and I doubt anyone was offering a 2nd or 3rd round pick. He would be so appealing on teams who could use him consistently, for now he's a stash that you have to be patient with. NO is in no rush to trade any of those backs. Ingram still isn't going anywhere, Sproles isn't, and neither is Pierre. So he's got to leave to see his value inflate otherwise he's a talented player that you won't be able to use in fantasy leagues.

You're assuming any team even offered a 6th or 7th round pick for Ivory at the deadline.

I suspect no team did. And I suspect if they had, the Saints would have traded Ivory (I don't care what Vitt said to the press, Loomis calls those shots, not him).

Surely front-offices around the league realize they can probably make a play for Ivory this off-season without giving up any picks at all for him.

Obviously nobody has any concrete evidence of whether any offers were sent, but I highly doubt nobody sent over an offer of a late round pick. Ivory has been in trade rumors for what seems like forever now, with all the teams having RB depth issues you mean to tell me nobody offered at least a 7th round pick for a guy who has been in every trade rumor? Doubt that. NO just wasn't about to help a team like Detroit(who they are battling for a wild card spot) with a huge on the field advantage for a 7th rounder. NFL teams know about a guy like Ivory by now, and if he was available for a 6th/7th rounder he would have been traded a long time ago.


He's also not a UFA, so it's not like they can just freely sign him. NO knows what they have in him, and all those teams who need RB help I'm sure called to gauge interest or availability. You mean to tell me a team like the Cardinals had a chance to get Ivory for a 7th rounder and decided to pass? Again, that's just not likely to me. I can't remember the last time a guy with talent enough to be a starter was available for a 7th round pick and nobody budged. NO saying they weren't trading Ivory to me just meant they weren't giving him away for free to help a team make a playoff push, especially a NFC team.

[Pullo Vision]

Surely front-offices around the league realize they can probably make a play for Ivory this off-season without giving up any picks at all for him.

Ivory is a restricted FA this coming offseason. Any team can sign him to an offer sheet. The Saints will have a period of time to match it. As I understand it, if they don't, they get a pick in return. Since he was originally undrafted, the pick would be low- like a 7th rounder.

[thriftyrocker]

Surely front-offices around the league realize they can probably make a play for Ivory this off-season without giving up any picks at all for him.

Ivory is a restricted FA this coming offseason. Any team can sign him to an offer sheet. The Saints will have a period of time to match it. As I understand it, if they don't, they get a pick in return. Since he was originally undrafted, the pick would be low- like a 7th rounder.

Yeah, I googled this a while back. If he gets the lowest tender amount (the Saints only commit a salary of about $1.3 mil for him), it's = where you drafted him. So UFA means no picks needed, no compensation back to the original team. The Saints have the right to match, but if their salary cap #s are screwed, teams know this and will know they don't have to outbid them.

They can tender him at a higher salary, which is still only about $2 mil (similar to what Pierre makes now, fwiw), which would require a 2nd back. If the Saints want him back for one more year, they have to give him 700k more next year. Otherwise they will probably get outbid.

Pierre's reduced workload vs. ATL is interesting. You don't expect Pierre to get left behind, but there's a little bit of "Kevin Smith" there. He's due modest roster bonuses starting next year, and they could get Ivory at a lower price and let Thomas move on. If Payton isn't there, there's more of a chance I guess.

[Pullo Vision]

Pierre's reduced workload vs. ATL is interesting. You don't expect Pierre to get left behind, but there's a little bit of "Kevin Smith" there. He's due modest roster bonuses starting next year, and they could get Ivory at a lower price and let Thomas move on. If Payton isn't there, there's more of a chance I guess.

I was very surprised about that, as well. Thought he'd get major touches in a divisional game.

It's very interesting how the Coach (Payton) and the two interims (Kromer and Vitt) seem use the running game in such different ways. Curious how much of it has to do with Sproles gone. If the trend continues through Sproles' return, Ivory/Ingram could be contender (and redraft) targets, while Thomas could become a buy-low, esp if he leaves. PT Cruiser as a Cowboy, for instance, would give Dallas what they hope to get from Felix (and sometimes do from play to play).