Wes Welker = Toxic Asset ??

[sn1p3r]

With the news that no long term deal was reached today between the Patriots and Wes Welker does this officially mark the end of his dynasty fantasy value?

I am trying to decide the likeliest scenario for his future, but I honestly don't see any way he ends up back with New England after this year (Unless the evil mastermind decides to cut him out of the playcalling this season to drive down his value in free agency).

What does everyone else think? Does Welker have any value on another roster in the future? What value do you place on him for trading purposes?

[joeday]

I have him in 1 or 2 leagues and I think you have to wait him out. If I am contending then I will keep him and hopefully ride him to the playoffs since 2012 should be business as usual. If I am rebuilding and mid-way thru the season another owner is a WR away from contending then I try to move him.

[Chris_R]

I am trying to honestly think of what I would offer for Welker. This year he very well could carry your team to the championship in a ppr league, but then again, how much does Brandon Lloyd dip into his numbers? How much do the two TE's get? I still see a very good season from him, but I don't know if I know for sure that he has 1 huge season left and if he doesn't have that then why would you trade anything worthwhile for a rental? It's really hard for me to gauge his value from an owner who wouldn't mind trading for him, I don't own him in any leagues but if I did I'm pretty sure I would ride it out this year and hope for the best.

[ericanadian]

Welker put up 67 rec, 687 yrds in his final year in Miami. Not impressed? Well, his primary QB was Joey Harrington with cameos from Daunte Culpepper and Cleo Lemon. He was the number three receiver behind Chris Chambers and Marty Booker, but finished just behind Booker for the number one spot in yards.

His value is definitely going to drop once he leaves New England, but he'll still get you a few more seasons of 90 rec & 1,000 yards in my opinion. Couple that with on final contract year and I think he's a good buy-low candidate if his owner if you can find a panicked owner.

[dresden]

The Patriots have a history of getting rid of players before they hit the cliff. I never expected the Patriots to sign Welker to a long term deal. The only way they'll sign him for more than one year is if he takes a salary that corresponds to significantly less production than he actually provides. I look at him as a high quality asset for a championship contender and a nearly useless asset for a rebuilding team.

[Tattoo]

Mentioned in the first post was what if New England changes its playcalling to limit Welker's opportunities to drive down his value. I can't see a team like the Patriots who are competing for a championship every year do something like that. However, maybe they start to throw downfield more as a way of transitioning away from the shorter game. It seems unlikely Welker will return next year but stranger things have happened. I would still keep Welker if I was an owner and it might be worth it to try and send out some feeler offers to try and pry him away from a worried owner.

[dresden]

Mentioned in the first post was what if New England changes its playcalling to limit Welker's opportunities to drive down his value. I can't see a team like the Patriots who are competing for a championship every year do something like that. However, maybe they start to throw downfield more as a way of transitioning away from the shorter game. It seems unlikely Welker will return next year but stranger things have happened. I would still keep Welker if I was an owner and it might be worth it to try and send out some feeler offers to try and pry him away from a worried owner.

I agree. New England is going to make the play calls that give them the best chance of winning and Brady is going to throw to the guys that give them the best chance of scoring points.

[tstafford]

I can't help his value. Many people believe that Welker is a product of the system/Brady. Whether that's true or not isn't relevant. If a lot of people think it, it drives his value down. This question was about Value not what can reasonably be expected in terms of Future Production. Unfortunately those two things are often not correlated.

[Mangelo]

Tough to call a producer like Welker a toxic asset.

Try owning guys like Roy Williams and Sidney Rice. Now those are toxic.

[Spinkso]

Ross Tucker tweeted this yesterday... "Tired of hearing Welker is "system" guy. EVERY team has slot WR. Same routes. He's unstoppable. Rare player."
I agree 100% People can say he's a scheme player, but every team in the NFL uses the slot. A lot. He is the most dominant player in the slot ever. His 600 catches in 5 years with a bum ACL in the middle of that run is evidence of it.
What happens if at this time next year he's in New Orleans... If he did, he'd be a serious contender for 150 receptions. Welker is a stud.

[Spinkso]

Mentioned in the first post was what if New England changes its playcalling to limit Welker's opportunities to drive down his value. I can't see a team like the Patriots who are competing for a championship every year do something like that. However, maybe they start to throw downfield more as a way of transitioning away from the shorter game. It seems unlikely Welker will return next year but stranger things have happened. I would still keep Welker if I was an owner and it might be worth it to try and send out some feeler offers to try and pry him away from a worried owner.

I agree. New England is going to make the play calls that give them the best chance of winning and Brady is going to throw to the guys that give them the best chance of scoring points.

The Pats wouldn't change their play calling to stick it to Welker and limit his production. The window closes with Brady, they don't have time to play these kind of games. Welker is Tom Brady's security blanket. Welker will produce as he has for the past 5 years.

[Spinkso]

The Patriots have a history of getting rid of players before they hit the cliff. I never expected the Patriots to sign Welker to a long term deal. The only way they'll sign him for more than one year is if he takes a salary that corresponds to significantly less production than he actually provides. I look at him as a high quality asset for a championship contender and a nearly useless asset for a rebuilding team.

Saying all of that, it's not like the Patriots have a really good track record with WR's. They've had Welker and Moss, and then a revolving door of garbage, marginal players, dumpster fire, and more marginal players.

[Richman]

Welker is getting 9 million this year. Even if they don't get a deal done next year and he's tagged again, he'll get about 11 or 12. Welker is in New England for 2 years at the least and I can't see a deal not coming together by year 3, though Welker will have to take a cut of income by then.

[Chris_R]

Welker is getting 9 million this year. Even if they don't get a deal done next year and he's tagged again, he'll get about 11 or 12. Welker is in New England for 2 years at the least and I can't see a deal not coming together by year 3, though Welker will have to take a cut of income by then.

What incentive would they have to tag him two years in a row then sign him to a deal that locks up a bunch of guaranteed money to an old WR? If they wanted him for 3-5 years it would be done now, and save them some relief on the cap hit. There is absolutely no chance he re-signs with them if he's tagged two years in a row. I'm not sure how much good football he has left, but in 3 years, there would be no reasonable answer as to why they would then decide they want him for 3 more years.

[general mills]

Could this be the reason that NE is lining Hernandez out of the TE position more? A larger version of Welker, getting the slant routes and moving the ball.