IND and WAS offensive personnel/scheme

[Pullo Vision]

Like some others, I've been debating which QB I'd prefer, Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III. I've begun to focus less on their individual skills, more on their situations. I'm hoping to avoid situations like David Carr and Tim Couch found themselves in, where a lack of talent around them damaged them psychologically, removing any chance of them capitalizing on their skills.

Personnel

IND- an exodus of offensive talent has left them with only Wayne among the main WRs/TEs. Clark, Garcon, Tamme and Addai are gone, and only Collie to pick up the slack. Brown can catch passes and break plays, but gest bowled over in pass protection and only began producing midway through last season. Carter is a between-the-tackles back who was deeply unimpressive his rookie year. The offensive line has been slowly deteriorating over the years.

WAS- a busy offseason brought in a pair of WRs to augment an older but productive corps. Hankerson flashed before going on IR, and he and Garcon bring the RAC skills. Fred Davis shined once Cooley wasn't sharing snaps. Helu was productive once Hightower and Torain weren't in the picture. Both are (or likely will be) gone in 2012. The line isn't as strong as desirable.

Scheme

IND- Bruce Arians comes from PIT after he reportedly was forced out for being too pass heavy. Will he push his system on a rookie QB, or will he mold it to Luck's less-than-ideal arm? How will he scheme to Brown's receiving and RAC skills, which he didn't have in a RB in PIT? Will the weaker offensive line expose Luck to hits, as Big Ben was subjected to?

WAS- Shanahan has a history of building productive offenses guided by QBs with major holes in their skills (see Plummer, Jake). Similarly, his RBs tend to be productive only in his scheme, and vanish into irrelevance when they leave. He has a history of scheming around his players.

It's fairly clear I like Washington for their offensive scheme and personnel. I'm worried Luck will face alot of pressure in year 1, due to the offensive circumstances, and won't perform to expectations. I'm further worried his struggles this year will inhibit his long-term development.

How does this thought process seem to you? Do you disagree?

[MR ROURKE]

I think there are enough pieces around Luck for him to be successful and more pieces will be coming in the near future. Luck is the safer pick. The Colts are in complete rebuild on the offense and defense. Washington has a decent D and are just trying to make their offense into something. I'm not a big fan of any of the WR's Washington brought in and S.Moss is pretty much done.

[Buddy]

It's fairly clear I like Washington

It looks like everything is positive for RGIII and everything is negative for Luck.

I started thinking the same way - looking at the big picture rather than the individual - and came away with the opposite conclusion.

Indy is in a complete rebuild and the expectations of the fans is to have another 10 year, 12 win per year dynasty. I get the impression they will do everything they can to surround Luck with the personnel to be successful. They have done it before as an organization and I don't have any doubt they will try to do it again.

Washington seems to change direction every 2-3 years. I'm beginning to think Snyder has football ADHD. They never seem to commit to anyone or any plan. Maybe Bruce Allen changes that. Last year, they finally had all of their 1st two days picks. But, with the trade this year, they are again without a 2nd this year and a 1st the next 2 years. We'll have to wait and see how long this regime stays in power.

[Pullo Vision]

It's fairly clear I like Washington

It looks like everything is positive for RGIII and everything is negative for Luck.

I started thinking the same way - looking at the big picture rather than the individual - and came away with the opposite conclusion.

Indy is in a complete rebuild and the expectations of the fans is to have another 10 year, 12 win per year dynasty. I get the impression they will do everything they can to surround Luck with the personnel to be successful. They have done it before as an organization and I don't have any doubt they will try to do it again.

Washington seems to change direction every 2-3 years. I'm beginning to think Snyder has football ADHD. They never seem to commit to anyone or any plan. Maybe Bruce Allen changes that. Last year, they finally had all of their 1st two days picks. But, with the trade this year, they are again without a 2nd this year and a 1st the next 2 years. We'll have to wait and see how long this regime stays in power.

It's more that I respect Shanahan as a coach, despite what he does to RBs. I've been a fan of his going back to his Denver days, and it seems he's instilled some discipline within the Redskins decision-making structure.
Regarding the massive trade for the 2nd overall- paraphrasing Michael Lombardi, "It's a good trade if it works out." If he becomes a souped-up Plummer (or what McNabb should have been) this is great.
My respect for Shanahan is strongly-counterbalanced by my concern about how a pass-crazy OC in Arians will handle an undermanned Colts squad. I like Luck, but I'm worried a beating his 1st year will retard his development, or even destroy the chance of him developing.

[NJKV]

I think RG3 has a chance to do better in the short term because of the talent around him but I think Luck will be better statically later on.

[general mills]

RG3 will definetly be throwing the ball a lot in the Kyle Shanahan scheme. I just can't see him starting the season off as the #1 QB. Knowing how Mike is he will start Grossman then by week 4-6 he will plug RG3 in.

Houston passing game
2007 before Kyle 3751 yds
2008 w/ Kyle 4267 yds
2009 w/ Kyle 4654 yds
2010 w/o Kyle 4144 yds
2011 w/o Kyle 3506 yds

Washington passing game
before Kyle
2008 3025 passing yds
2009 3490 yds
Kyle took over as OC
2010 3913 yds
2011 3773 yds

[tra151]

I keep hearing about the supporting cast being better in Washington. I think wash has a better defense, but they aren't exactly boiling with offensive talent to help rg3. Pierre garçon may be the best wr on their roster, and when Peyton was around, he was third behind Wayne and collie, both still on the colts. Fred Davis is a much better TE than anything currently on the colts roster, but the colts could very easily take fleener in the second. I don't think there is a rb on either roster that is special, or takes a particular amount of pressure off the qbs. The only real advantage I see in Washington is the offensive line. It's a pretty big deal, but from most accounts, luck feels and reacts to pressure much better than rg3 anyway, so that may be a wash as far as affect goes.

I think both these guys will be pretty good. Both guys should start from day 1. If I'm looking at a guy that will likely be on my team for 10+ years, I think I would pretty much just go on talent. These situations could be vastly different in three years when these guys are really hitting thier stride

[cha]

Like some others, I've been debating which QB I'd prefer, Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III. I've begun to focus less on their individual skills, more on their situations. I'm hoping to avoid situations like David Carr and Tim Couch found themselves in, where a lack of talent around them damaged them psychologically, removing any chance of them capitalizing on their skills.

Personnel

IND- an exodus of offensive talent has left them with only Wayne among the main WRs/TEs. Clark, Garcon, Tamme and Addai are gone, and only Collie to pick up the slack. Brown can catch passes and break plays, but gest bowled over in pass protection and only began producing midway through last season. Carter is a between-the-tackles back who was deeply unimpressive his rookie year. The offensive line has been slowly deteriorating over the years.

WAS- a busy offseason brought in a pair of WRs to augment an older but productive corps. Hankerson flashed before going on IR, and he and Garcon bring the RAC skills. Fred Davis shined once Cooley wasn't sharing snaps. Helu was productive once Hightower and Torain weren't in the picture. Both are (or likely will be) gone in 2012. The line isn't as strong as desirable.

Scheme

IND- Bruce Arians comes from PIT after he reportedly was forced out for being too pass heavy. Will he push his system on a rookie QB, or will he mold it to Luck's less-than-ideal arm? How will he scheme to Brown's receiving and RAC skills, which he didn't have in a RB in PIT? Will the weaker offensive line expose Luck to hits, as Big Ben was subjected to?

WAS- Shanahan has a history of building productive offenses guided by QBs with major holes in their skills (see Plummer, Jake). Similarly, his RBs tend to be productive only in his scheme, and vanish into irrelevance when they leave. He has a history of scheming around his players.

It's fairly clear I like Washington for their offensive scheme and personnel. I'm worried Luck will face alot of pressure in year 1, due to the offensive circumstances, and won't perform to expectations. I'm further worried his struggles this year will inhibit his long-term development.

How does this thought process seem to you? Do you disagree?

Will he have the strongest arm in the NFL? No.....but it is by no means weak.....

[jthirteentimes]

I keep hearing about the supporting cast being better in Washington. I think wash has a better defense, but they aren't exactly boiling with offensive talent to help rg3. Pierre garçon may be the best wr on their roster, and when Peyton was around, he was third behind Wayne and collie, both still on the colts. Fred Davis is a much better TE than anything currently on the colts roster, but the colts could very easily take fleener in the second. I don't think there is a rb on either roster that is special, or takes a particular amount of pressure off the qbs. The only real advantage I see in Washington is the offensive line. It's a pretty big deal, but from most accounts, luck feels and reacts to pressure much better than rg3 anyway, so that may be a wash as far as affect goes.

I think both these guys will be pretty good. Both guys should start from day 1. If I'm looking at a guy that will likely be on my team for 10+ years, I think I would pretty much just go on talent. These situations could be vastly different in three years when these guys are really hitting thier stride

I totally agree with Tra. It is extremely shortsighted to make a determination based on perceived situation, which is easily one of the most fluid and unpredictable factors to be considered. I think Washington's situation is being overrated, and Indy's underrated. That and I do not think Washington's O-line should be considered an advantage. I may not sound like it, but I'm a Redskins fan. This is a decision to be made based on perceived talent and risk aversion.

[prinefan]

First off, I'm a huge Skins fan. That aside, I see RG3 being more productive this year but Luck long term. I'm taking Luck in the league that I'll have the option.

[bluemetal]

Here are Manning's first two seasons as an NFL starting QBs...another thing to keep in mind is that the reason a team has a top pick is because it sucks (unless its WAS here which traded up)....I think we are fooling ourselves if we are thinking Luck will start hot. Newton's success shows RG3 can. I am actually very seriously debating waiting to trade for Luck after his owner gets impatient after 1st year....

G Att Comp Pct Att/G Yds Avg Yds/G TD TD% Int Int% Lng 20+ 40+ Sck SckY Rate
16 575 326 56.7 35.9 3,739 6.5 233.7 26 4.5 28 4.9 78T 42 8 22 109 71.2
16 533 331 62.1 33.3 4,135 7.8 258.4 26 4.9 15 2.8 80T 56 11 14 116 90.7

[cha]

Here are Manning's first two seasons as an NFL starting QBs...another thing to keep in mind is that the reason a team has a top pick is because it sucks (unless its WAS here which traded up)....I think we are fooling ourselves if we are thinking Luck will start hot. Newton's success shows RG3 can. I am actually very seriously debating waiting to trade for Luck after his owner gets impatient after 1st year....

G Att Comp Pct Att/G Yds Avg Yds/G TD TD% Int Int% Lng 20+ 40+ Sck SckY Rate
16 575 326 56.7 35.9 3,739 6.5 233.7 26 4.5 28 4.9 78T 42 8 22 109 71.2
16 533 331 62.1 33.3 4,135 7.8 258.4 26 4.9 15 2.8 80T 56 11 14 116 90.7

Keep in mind that the NFL was different when Manning came in. Things have changed and rules favor the QBs and the WRs now and I think this has helped more with QBs finding early success.

[ConnSKINS26]

It's a pretty big deal, but from most accounts, luck feels and reacts to pressure much better than rg3 anyway

Not according to Cossell, and he seems to know his stuff.

[lukeb]

Here are Manning's first two seasons as an NFL starting QBs...another thing to keep in mind is that the reason a team has a top pick is because it sucks (unless its WAS here which traded up)....I think we are fooling ourselves if we are thinking Luck will start hot. Newton's success shows RG3 can. I am actually very seriously debating waiting to trade for Luck after his owner gets impatient after 1st year....

G Att Comp Pct Att/G Yds Avg Yds/G TD TD% Int Int% Lng 20+ 40+ Sck SckY Rate
16 575 326 56.7 35.9 3,739 6.5 233.7 26 4.5 28 4.9 78T 42 8 22 109 71.2
16 533 331 62.1 33.3 4,135 7.8 258.4 26 4.9 15 2.8 80T 56 11 14 116 90.7

Cam and RG3 aren't close in style.

[bluemetal]

Here are Manning's first two seasons as an NFL starting QBs...another thing to keep in mind is that the reason a team has a top pick is because it sucks (unless its WAS here which traded up)....I think we are fooling ourselves if we are thinking Luck will start hot. Newton's success shows RG3 can. I am actually very seriously debating waiting to trade for Luck after his owner gets impatient after 1st year....

G Att Comp Pct Att/G Yds Avg Yds/G TD TD% Int Int% Lng 20+ 40+ Sck SckY Rate
16 575 326 56.7 35.9 3,739 6.5 233.7 26 4.5 28 4.9 78T 42 8 22 109 71.2
16 533 331 62.1 33.3 4,135 7.8 258.4 26 4.9 15 2.8 80T 56 11 14 116 90.7

Cam and RG3 aren't close in style.

In fairness, I don't watch college football as extensively....my view was that RG3 is closer to Cam than Luck is to Cam....perhaps people can correct me if I am wrong there...