Austin vs. Cruz

[bbwayne]

It seems to me that Austin is losing the love based on last years performance. However, it's ironic the similarities between himself and Cruz.

1. Both play on explosive offenses
2. Both can be considered 1A or 1B on their teams
3. Both came out of nowhere when given an opportunity
4. Both play physical with good speed

So, why is Cruz valued higher on some ranking lists? Cruz can easily have some of the same "let down" that Austin has had. I think their long term value is closer to each other then what seems to be the view today.

Thoughts?

[dlf_jacobf]

It is all about what have you done lately. Austin's stock last year is right about where Cruz is this year. Austin is probably too low right now and Cruz is too high. If I had Cruz and I could get Austin plus another good piece for him, I would take it all day long.

[derekwillet]

I've seen the two ranked near each other, and I think that's fair. I would probably prefer Austin, simply because I see him as the clear cut #1 on his team (regardless of how much "potential" Dez has), while Cruz is more of the 1B.

Plus, Cruz had his surprise season last year, so this year will be about seeing how he plays when he is a main focus of the defense, while Austin has already proven he can play well in that position. As we saw in the Super Bowl, Cruz was able to be taken out of the game...so I want to see a little more of him before I'll take him over what I consider to be the proven commodity.

[Buddy]

There isn't a Witten on the Giants. The majority of targets are split two ways on NY and three ways on Dallas.

[The GM]

I've seen the two ranked near each other, and I think that's fair. I would probably prefer Austin, simply because I see him as the clear cut #1 on his team (regardless of how much "potential" Dez has), while Cruz is more of the 1B.

Plus, Cruz had his surprise season last year, so this year will be about seeing how he plays when he is a main focus of the defense, while Austin has already proven he can play well in that position. As we saw in the Super Bowl, Cruz was able to be taken out of the game...so I want to see a little more of him before I'll take him over what I consider to be the proven commodity.

I agree that Ausin is the clear cut #1 on his team and not the 1B. I like Cruz and I do think Eli is a better QB under pressure than Romo.

[Jimmy Graham Cracker]

I think both are about equal but I'd take Cruz for a few reasons:

Eli is better than Romo.
Cruz is two years younger.
Cruz has less competition for targets.
Austin's hamstrings aren't great and he's otherwise kind of injury-prone.

[Pullo Vision]

If the Patriots showed that the way to challenge the Giants is to double Cruz and take your hits from Nicks, as some have argued here, isn't Austin the better choice?

[ekassor]

The Patriots lost the Superbowl following that strategy, Nicks destroyed them. If anything the Superbowl showed that coverage needs to be rolled to Nicks. I like Austin and Cruz and value them pretty similarly.

[chumway6]

The Patriots lost the Superbowl following that strategy, Nicks destroyed them. If anything the Superbowl showed that coverage needs to be rolled to Nicks. I like Austin and Cruz and value them pretty similarly.

As a guy who recently bought both of them during a FA auction, I have them valued about the same but had to pay a higher price for Cruz (both were still a good value, however). As someone said, what-have-you-done-for-me-lately makes Cruz slightly more valuable.

[??Droppedballs??]

id take austin 100 out of 100 times

[Jfever]

Funny how people involved with Dynasty and interested in fantasy football can see things so differently when looking at the same thing..... I'd be taking Cruz 100 out of 100 times and find it difficult to see why / how someone would see it differently. At the same time, I'm ok with it. If I was trading Cruz and getting Austin in return, I'd certainly expect a late 1st or early second in the deal. I see them as having fairly similar values but I'd say Cruz has more value for several reasons.

1. What have you done for me lately ( must me mentioned as it is the way it is ).
2. Age
3. QB play (Eli much more clutch than Romo)
4. # targets
5. big play potential
6. Austin is injury prone - seems like his hammy's are always tweaked. (maybe Im wrong but it just seems that way) I am a previous Austin owner and I don't miss him or his unpredictability one bit.

7. Nicks opposite Cruz helps Cruz, while Dez opposite Austin doesn't seem to have the same effect as Witten is there and there isn't enough balls to go around to make 3 skilled receivers as fantasy relevant as two. Even though N.E. "took" Cruz out of the S.B. he somehow still scored a T.D. and had a big impact on that game.... plus, that stratigy really didn't work out to well for Belichick and the Pats did it?

I'd expect defenses to "pick their poison" and role coverage back and forth from Nicks to Cruz and then back to Nicks throughout a game. I have faith that Eli is skilled enough to read coverages and to find the open wr. Cruz has an incredable knack of getting open and running crisp routes as does Nicks. When one is double covered.... Eli goes to the other. When Nicks isn't open, odds that Cruz is open are high / and vice versa as both Nicks and Cruz make an extremely talented tandom. I'd say the Giants tandem are more skilled than the Cowboys tandom of Austin / Bryant.

Value wise they are relatively close but I think at the end of the day Cruz >> Austin.

[Mangelo]

People bringing up Austin's hammy issues have forgotten that Cruz was placed on IR with a hammy tear.

[??Droppedballs??]

Funny how people involved with Dynasty and interested in fantasy football can see things so differently when looking at the same thing..... I'd be taking Cruz 100 out of 100 times and find it difficult to see why / how someone would see it differently. At the same time, I'm ok with it. If I was trading Cruz and getting Austin in return, I'd certainly expect a late 1st or early second in the deal. I see them as having fairly similar values but I'd say Cruz has more value for several reasons.

1. What have you done for me lately ( must me mentioned as it is the way it is ).
2. Age
3. QB play (Eli much more clutch than Romo)
4. # targets
5. big play potential
6. Austin is injury prone - seems like his hammy's are always tweaked. (maybe Im wrong but it just seems that way) I am a previous Austin owner and I don't miss him or his unpredictability one bit.

7. Nicks opposite Cruz helps Cruz, while Dez opposite Austin doesn't seem to have the same effect as Witten is there and there isn't enough balls to go around to make 3 skilled receivers as fantasy relevant as two. Even though N.E. "took" Cruz out of the S.B. he somehow still scored a T.D. and had a big impact on that game.... plus, that stratigy really didn't work out to well for Belichick and the Pats did it?

I'd expect defenses to "pick their poison" and role coverage back and forth from Nicks to Cruz and then back to Nicks throughout a game. I have faith that Eli is skilled enough to read coverages and to find the open wr. Cruz has an incredable knack of getting open and running crisp routes as does Nicks. When one is double covered.... Eli goes to the other. When Nicks isn't open, odds that Cruz is open are high / and vice versa as both Nicks and Cruz make an extremely talented tandom. I'd say the Giants tandem are more skilled than the Cowboys tandom of Austin / Bryant.

Value wise they are relatively close but I think at the end of the day Cruz >> Austin.

Some of your reason i would use to say auston is the better of the two

1) what have you done for me lately, makes austin way better value pick to cruz, who was the cruz last year TAMPA MIKE, the comparison of cruz and tampa mike is a very good one, 1 yr of production and a guys value is way over rated

2)age, is a non factor as they both have way to many yr in the tank to use this as a factor one way or the other.

3)eli more cluch then romo, well mabe in the playoffs but i wouldnt use the word way more for the regular season, and only the regular season matters in ff

4)# of targets, again we are using a 1 yr sample size to determine this, while auston was injured during that yr, i cant see this as a valid argument cause if austin was healthy i could see it go one way or the other, eeither way it would be close

5)big play potential, i might be able to give cruz the edge here, but its not like austin doesnt have big play ability

6)austin injury prone, naw i wouldnt say that, cruz has been injured for half his career so if anything i would say cruz is the injury prone one out of the 2

7)nicks is nicks to cruz's cruz and austin is nicks in dallas, i would also say gaints wr tandem is better then dallas', but thats because i dont think dez is that good and nicks is better then austin, but cruz isnt

8) nothing you said changes the fact austin is a better wr

[Jfever]

Fair enough. Agree to dissagree. I'm ok with your opinion - just don't see it the same. I'll go with Cruz. Simply put, if last year was a complete fluke and Cruz never sniff's numbers even remotely close (70-75% or so of his totals) to his 2011 season I'll be very surpized.

I wouldn't say Cruz is comparable to M.Williams but I could be wrong. I don't think Cruz's work ethic or off the field focus has ever been an issue nor is Eli and the Giant's offense likely to regress like Freeman and T.B. did last year so... in my opinion not a very valid comparison at all. Besides all that I think it is fairly unlikely that we ever see Miles Austin put up the season that Cruz just did even when healthy for a full season. I'll admit that they are close in playmaking ability but the edge goes to Cruz. In 2008 when Austin took over starting job he missed 7 games due to injury, 2009 missed 1 gm, no injuries in 2010, and then he missed 6 more games in 2011. So, to me not only is Austin's ceiling a bit lower, his propensity for missing stretches of games just seems more likely. But I'll admit injuries are tough to predict.

Last years injury led to 6 missed games and Austin to 43 rec, 579, and 7tds and he was outscored in fantasy production 288.38 to 143.2 in my league, in 2010 when Austin was healthy and played in 16 games he hauled in 69 rec, 1041 yds and 7 td's, in 2009 -(his best statistical year also healthy) - 81, 1300 and 11tds, 2008- 13, 278, and 3 Td's (injured again missed 7 games.) 2007 - rookie not much for playing time - mostly played on special teams / kick returner.

All in all, if you owned Austin and was offered Cruz for him straight up, I think it'd be a mistake to decline. As a Cruz owner, I wouldn't make that offer and wouldn't accept if offered Miles straight up.

[Buddy]

4)# of targets, again we are using a 1 yr sample size to determine this, while auston was injured during that yr, i cant see this as a valid argument cause if austin was healthy i could see it go one way or the other, eeither way it would be close

I don't see how anyone who looked at targets objectively doesn't come up with Cruz as their answer.

The WRs on Dallas have had 290 targets in each of the last 2 years. Witten is still there. The coach hasn't changed. Without injury, that number will again be close to the same. If you looked at the games when both Austin and Dez both played, and added up all of the other targets for the rest of the WRs and adjusted it to 16 games, that number comes to around 80. So, at best, without injury, Dez and Austin will likely split about 210 targets.

Th WRs on the NYG have averaged around 360 targets in each of the last 2 years. They lost both of their pass catching TEs to knee injuries. The coach hasn't changed. They lost an above average #3 in Manningham to FA and their new #3 will likely come from their remaining pool. If you looked at games when both Cruz and Nicks played and Manningham didn't, all of the other receivers averaged a total of about 3.5 targets per game, or about 54 for a 16 game season. Even if you assume those guys will step up and produce at the level of Manningham, that's about 80 targets for the season. That leaves between 280 and 300 targets for Cruz and Nicks. So to summarize the NYG, if the new TE (Bennett) plays as well as Ballard last year and Boss the year before and if they find a #3 WR as good as Manningham, Cruz and Nicks will still split about 280 targets.

It's pretty tough to make a case that a guy with 105 targets will produce more than a guy with 140 targets.