TRich's potential

[~ INVICTUS ~]

Invictus,

A couple other questions.

1. If TR goes to Tampa, do you jump all over him with 1.1?

2. If TR goes to Cleveland, but say..Doug Martin or Lamar Miller go to "favorable" landing spots, would you use your 1.1 on either of them?

3. Or are you just taking Luck or RG3 with 1.1?

Curious as to your thoughts..pardon me if you answered this previously, and thanks for your time.

Hey JoeK

Anytime, I enjoyed our chat contrary to many others.

1) If he goes to Tampa I like his odds better but if I owned the 1.1 I'm pretty sure I'd get a package in trade I prefer over him in Tampa. Bottom line is there is so much love for him now, I'd be looking to take advantage of it and boost my team's worth. That's the highest value I place on him. Not what he'll potentially do, which COULD be substantial but I increase my team's odds by taking players I've seen more of in places I already know they're playing, and some depth as well, best case trade.

2) If Doug Martin or Miller go to more favorable landing spots, I still wouldn't burn the 1.1 because that's even better for my cause. Now say I like Martin almost as much or pretty close, but there will still be a number of players in my league who will be all over TR no matter what. Great for me as I trade back a bit and then STILL make my play for the guy I want in Martin preferably, and pick up something to move back and get my better value guy in Martin.

3) I most likely wouldn't be looking at either of the QB's but I assess each league differently as best I can. If I'm stacked at WR say in one league, and don't like where Floyd or Blackmon lands maybe I take one of the QB's or again, first option is always to shop the pick. 95% of the time there will be a player in my league who wants who's on the board more then I do at that point and will pay for it. If I believe they offer the best upside/value for that particular team in a certain league, and I don't like the offers I'm getting and feel I can take player I like later with other picks, then maybe I take either of those two QB's. I rarely draft from need on any of my teams, I first and foremost look for best value price for what someone will pay. I don' t get emotional over players. Last season in my largest league I was weakest at RB, yet I avoided all the "top" RB's that everyone desired, traded back and grabbed players that panned out better for me, coincidently who were WR's which I was deepest at and still took one who I believed best player at that point.

Thanks..

[TheOracle]

I don' t get emotional over players.

Might want to try that statement in a thread were you haven't acted like the only girl in the 7th grade who prefers the Jonas Brothers to Justin Bieber.

You build your teams, I'll build mine. My 'logic" as served me quite well right up to and including last year when everyone was lining up for all of the STUD RB's last season. You can also line up with all the other sheep to be sheared because of pedigree and where players are drafted. As I also listed above all the "top" RB picks taken so early and how well they all fared. If you also believe that if they take him @ 4 to sit on the bench or to be saved for the future, well what can I tell you.. I doubt a team this bad with a staff that will be on the hot seat will have that luxury but believe what you will. I guess TR is the most elusive, injury impervious RB to ever enter the NFL..oh that's right his knee has already been scoped and he's not known for his tackle avoiding but I digress. If it makes you feel happy and content and just better to keep him on your team.. enjoy.

First, I'd probably grade out in the 30-40th percentile with regard to the Richardson love. I like him, I think he's a good back, I don't think he's somebody you would trade AJ Green or Julio Jones for, as somebody else mentioned. I think he's a low-end RB1/high end RB2. I'm only lining up to take T-Rich if it's in my salary cap league, where he's probably a low end RB1. A low-end RB1 or even high end RB2 at a 1st round pick's salary is a tremendously valuable commodity. So there.

Second, to clarify, I'm not lining up to draft Richardson because he's a top pick. I mentioned his pedigree because it's indicative of how Cleveland will use him as opposed to Hillis. There's no reason for Shurmur/Childress to run Richardson into the ground, especially if they're a bad team. There WAS reason to run Hillis into the ground- he was four years older, had two years left, and was acquired along with a sixth round pick for a backup QB. There was no reason for the Browns to resign him after his contract was up. Richardson will sign a contract of at least four years. They are completely different players who represent wholly different things to the organization, and there is no indication that they would be treated similarly. I brought this up because you have completely failed to acknowledge it. If you can't see that there's no reason for Cleveland to overwork him, you're either a fool or deliberately ignoring the evidence.

Finally, defending your logic by stating that it has served you well in the past is implicitly admitting that your logic is bad. If your logic can't stand for itself and requires an appeal to authority, it isn't good logic; rather, that's the very definition of a logical fallacy. You might very well be right about Richardson, but if you are, it won't be for the reasons that I quoted you saying. You don't like him as a prospect, that's fine, but instead of making a rational case against him, you've gone off the damn deep end, ranting about how a runningback who was viewed as an expendable commodity was treated, and then just making things up about Pittsburgh and Baltimore injuring players, as though other defenses tackle gently. It doesn't make sense, and it's stupid logic, and you won't admit it.

[skip]

We differ in how we choose to build our fantasy teams, and what we want in our 1.1 draft picks.

I am not sure that is true. I am looking for a player that I expect to be elite in the NFL. Last year I dealt away DMC for the 1.1 to draft AJ Green. My expectations - with the Browns or otherwise - is that TRich can be that elite player in this season's draft.

[~ INVICTUS ~]

Christ...

For a bunch of self proclaimed Dynasty veterans, who are so sure I'm delusional, wrong, or stupid, you all are going to great and repeated lengths to defend your 'superior' position.

"and then just making things up about Pittsburgh and Baltimore injuring players, as though other defenses tackle gently. It doesn't make sense, and it's stupid logic, and you won't admit it"

I suggest you go back and A) re-read what I posted earlier about these teams and B) I distinctly recall Ray Lewis busting Rashard Mendenhall's shoulder as a rookie but, doesn't count and TRich is from Krypton and cannot be stymied or injured by two of the perennial top run defenses.

"I mentioned his pedigree because it's indicative of how Cleveland will use him as opposed to Hillis. There's no reason for Shurmur/Childress to run Richardson into the ground, especially if they're a bad team. There WAS reason to run Hillis into the ground- he was four years older, had two years left, and was acquired along with a sixth round pick for a backup QB. There was no reason for the Browns to resign him after his contract was up. "

Interesting take to put it as politely and simply as you may grasp... DO YOU REALLY THINK THEY WILL KEEP HIM IN AN INCUBATOR BECAUSE THEY TOOK HIM AT 4 ??? Maybe you're right.... and they'll just preserve him for two or three years while Colt McCoy morphs into Tom Brady or they take the time to put all the other pieces they need to be a good offense, 3 season's or so and then break the glass and unleash him when all is ready!! Great strategy..genius. Most coaches coming off so horrible a year as Shurmur certainly will explore that option, he's earned it. Or maybe they will hope he is all that everyone says and they hand him the ball repeatedly..Mmmm Which is more likely I wonder??

"Finally, defending your logic by stating that it has served you well in the past is implicitly admitting that your logic is bad. If your logic can't stand for itself and requires an appeal to authority, it isn't good logic; rather, that's the very definition of a logical fallacy."

This is my fave BTW (You being the self proclaimed "authority" ) When something works well and has proven successful, SCRAP IT AS FAILURE...wow that is quite insightful ..and also thank you because without you now showing me the error of my successful past ways I can adopt yours. THANK YOU "ORACLE" ..how the hell have I tied my shoes without your help. (Your moniker is well deserved.)

[tra151]

And we've regressed again........

Invictus: it's not that I don't agree with you, I just don't understand your arguement. Why is it that you feel like it is a forgone conclusion that trich won't be able to hold up in Cleveland? Is it trich himself that you doubt? Or do you think he will get significantly more touches than the other elite rb's in the league that seem to do ok? Foster, rice, McCoy, and all the other elite rb's get a ton of carries and catches. I don't see why it will be any different with trich. I can see the arguement against a guy like dmac, who can't see to handle a full workload, but I don't see where that comes up with trich. And also why this same arguement doesn't apply to Martin?

He may very well miss some time due to getting banged up as many rb's with heavy workloads do, I just don't see why it's different with him than the others.

And I don't think trich is superman......

[ekassor]

Invictus is this a special situation affecting TRich, or will any RB drafted by the Browns be doomed?

[MARKinMI]

Bronte knows his point is flawed. And for some reason likes to lash out on anybody who doesn't take his opinions, thank him and tell him he's smart. Cle is no worse of a landing spot than anywhere else. Peterson went to a crappy Vikings team with even less talent at QB and WR and he did fine. MJD lead the league in rushing last season with no QB or WR help to speak of. If Richardson has the talent which 99% of the real experts (NFL employees) think, then he'll play well. Joe thomas is a pretty good guy to run behind.

I don't refer to myself as an expert but i do refer to myself as a dynasty veteran. I'm starting my 11th season in the format, long before it was referred to as "dynasty" and way before there were web-sites dedicated to it. And like many here, my very first Fantasy Football memories were with a notebook ( paper, not the kind with a battery lol) and a copy of USAToday on mondays tabulating the scores. This might not mean much to most but i can honestly say it took me multiple years to gain the knowledge of pick values and feel confident with making moves that can impact my team for years. I didn't feel as comfortable after 2 years as i do now. It took me about 5 years to really feel comfortable in every decision making situation. Laugh at me, make a snarky comment like you have with many of us in this thread, that's cool. Hell, Maybe your smarter than I am, I haven't seen it in this thread though.

[Hawks Nest 12th Man]

Bronte knows his point is flawed. And for some reason likes to lash out on anybody who doesn't take his opinions, thank him and tell him he's smart. Cle is no worse of a landing spot than anywhere else. Peterson went to a crappy Vikings team with even less talent at QB and WR and he did fine. MJD lead the league in rushing last season with no QB or WR help to speak of. If Richardson has the talent which 99% of the real experts (NFL employees) think, then he'll play well. Joe thomas is a pretty good guy to run behind.

I don't refer to myself as an expert but i do refer to myself as a dynasty veteran. I'm starting my 11th season in the format, long before it was referred to as "dynasty" and way before there were web-sites dedicated to it. And like many here, my very first Fantasy Football memories were with a notebook ( paper, not the kind with a battery lol) and a copy of USAToday on mondays tabulating the scores. This might not mean much to most but i can honestly say it took me multiple years to gain the knowledge of pick values and feel confident with making moves that can impact my team for years. I didn't feel as comfortable after 2 years as i do now. It took me about 5 years to really feel comfortable in every decision making situation. Laugh at me, make a snarky comment like you have with many of us in this thread, that's cool. Hell, Maybe your smarter than I am, I haven't seen it in this thread though.

Great post. I started playing fantasy Randy Moss rookie year! I traded Terrell Davis one week before he blew out his ACL trying to make a tackle off a int vs NY Jets! Our commiss had to wait for the newspaper box scores and call us once a week for pickups and drops! My 1st keeper was rookie WR Michael Westbrook. My 1st championship was with a young Peyton Manning, Eddie George, Mike Anderson, Issac Bruce , Cant remember rest of lineup.. good times

FYI Trent Richardson will be a stud. BELIEVE the HYPE.

[Pullo Vision]

I can understand concerns about Richardson going to the Browns, or another team that doesn't seem to have the supporting cast necessary for success. To me, the issue pivots on an owner's risk-aversion. If an owner would prefer not to risk the chance a rookie flops or doesn't perform to expectations/hope, that's fine. I can certainly see an owner preferring players who have performed in the NFL, even if their ceiling isn't perceived to be as high as Richardson's.

As I see it, another reason for an owner to want to deal 1.1, besides the risks inherent in rookies, is that the returns gained in trades have been significantly better than previous trades for many other rookies and picks. While owning a talent like Richardson can be appealing, flipping him for a number of players can be even more so.

On the flip side, Richardson has the makeup to be a 3-down RB. Given how rare they are, those teams positioned to take on the risk/reward of Richardson (either due to depth or owner-inclination) can hope they get a top 10 back who won't be in a timeshare or have character questions.

There is no right answer, to me. It's a shame an interesting topic has devolved into passionately defending one's views and attacking others'.

[Hawks Nest 12th Man]

I think one of the arguments in this thread that is particularly ridiculous is that Hillis was destroyed by the division he was in, and that Richardson will also. So then, in the AFC west they tackle people with hugs and kisses? I Want to see statistical analysis supporting the idea that you're substantively more likely to get injured by a good defense before I buy into this argument.

I think this is on page 3? 2+ more pages without an answer. I don't need statistical data to tell me that there is zero correlation to a player's propensity for injury relative to the team he plays for or opponents he plays against.

I've repeated numerous times but I'll attempt to clarify a bit for YOU. You see no correlation? I'll give you a multiple # of them:

1) The Browns offense hasn't changed much during the time since Hillis had all the touches he did two season ago. Not a whole lot of offensive help to go with McCoy and Greg Little is there? I guess I should've noticed your HOF'er in your Avatar sooner

2) It is a FACT most RB's the following year after such usage regress from the prior season's output. I'm sure you'll doubt this info, feel free to research it yourself.

3) If TR IS in fact drafted by the Browns @ 4 the plan is to use him in the same workhorse fashion as Hillis. Hillis is 6'2 250. Larger in fact then TR and he was used extensively as a pass catcher in the Brown offense that year. Still had quite a regression in 2012. Call it do to contract if you like, the numbers don't lie.

Here is a special one FOR YOU :

If a RB is playing in a division against two of the top rush defenses in the league, does it not make an odds sense that at minimum his production output should be capped playing them on a yearly basis 4 times ? Still no correlation...?

1) The Browns offense hasn't changed much during the time since Hillis had all the touches he did two season ago. Not a whole lot of offensive help to go with McCoy and Greg Little is there?
TRUE Browns offense regardless of OC/HC has been weak accept for one magic season with DA at qb , Braylon at WR and Winslow at TE.
2) It is a FACT most RB's the following year after such usage regress from the prior season's output. I'm sure you'll doubt this info, feel free to research it yourself.
TRUE look at Shaun Alexander, CJ2K, Jamal Lewis, Michael Turner, Matt Forte after rookie yr, LT, Hillis and all other rbs last 10 years that finished top 5 fantasy points very rare they repeat. It takes a lot of physical and mental sacrifce to produce that type of season. Throw in fact the NFL is doing everything it can to protect WRS & QBS and NOTHING to protect runningbacks.
3) If TR IS in fact drafted by the Browns @ 4 the plan is to use him in the same workhorse fashion as Hillis. Hillis is 6'2 250. Larger in fact then TR and he was used extensively as a pass catcher in the Brown offense that year. Still had quite a regression in 2012. Call it do to contract if you like, the numbers don't lie.
Agree if a head coach and gm need to ride a player to save their jobs they will! Make no mistake if TR is blowing it up and Browns are winning they will ride him hard. Ask Earl Campbell about that.
Invictus your points make sense to me. Your frustration is understood ... but lashing out won't help. Better to just let it go. Pitt and Balt have historically been extremely strong vs the run. Cincy D has been stronger last couple season. Just curious when was last time a back from Cleveland or Cincy lead the NFL in Rushing yards and TDs? I didn't look this up just a random thought. I personally can't think of one last 10 years. Dillon maybe ....Go DAWGS!!!

Lastly someone made a commit about Hillis being ran into the ground because of where he was drafted... hmmm makes little sense considering where Foster and Terrell Davis were drafted. If a player shows consistent talent at high level teams will take care of them .. unless they are a poorly ran franchise IMO. Reality rbs get paid for what they did not what their going to do. It's crazy to think but teams have to pay a player for past performance knowing they likely won't perform at that exact level again.... but by doing this it gives future players incentive to go all out for that carrot aka 2nd contract. Hillis blew do to bad luck or bad attitude. If he would of had another solid season I believe the Browns would of gave him a solid 3 to 4 year contract.

Invictus one thing I do disagree with you on .... Trent Richardson will be a stud. I don't know what you do for a living. Myself being a 40 hour a week average joe.... I am also a pretty good club coach and generally good judge of talent. 3 guys in this draft seem like they are locks to be studs IMO Luck, Richardson and Kuechly. Time will tell.

[NJKV]

I don't think any disagrees with methodology of trading the 1.01 if it will yield a player such as AJ Green, Julio Jones, heck even Foster, Rice, McCoy, and Calvin Johnson.

I just have the feeling invictus wouldn't trade the 1.01 for Rice, McCoy or Foster. Please correct me if I am wrong. I just get this feeling you have devalued RB's that much. With that said, how low would you go (that is fun to say) in a trade on the 1.01. I just get the sense you would trade the 1.01 for a box of Crackerjacks and 5 pieces of Bazooka bubble gum.

[~ INVICTUS ~]

In spite of general consensus the last thing I post on MB's for is to have everyone be in agreement with me.

Are many of you actually surprised at my frustration and "lashing out" at this point in a redundant and repeated argument? From my first two posts on the subject I was greeted with derision and sarcasm. Instead of having a polite and "spirited debate" which I whole heartedly enjoy, as a few of you who do know me a bit can attest to. Instead I was asked what gives me the "right" to post here? That certainly was a first. And BTW for all of the multi year vets..just because I've been playing Dynasty for only about 3 seasons, albeit at a very high and successful level, WTF makes you believe that I haven't been playing Fantasy as long or longer then many of you? You have the audacity to throw around the word "arrogance".

As I stated multiple times in as many ways as I can clarify why I believed TR is being over valued and what I PREFER to do with MY TEAMS. The thread title was in regards to his value going forward. If you think me stupid, flawed or delusional, very simple solution. Don't respond to me or ask me to continually defend my points ad nauseum. I'm sure many of you can give two piles of %^&* what I do with my teams. Easy enough isn't it?

Many others of you responded and chatted with great points and with a level of communicative camaraderie and I appreciate that, and have enjoyed the convos with you.

[TheOracle]

Because you don't understand what an appeal to authority is, I'll explain it for you.

An appeal to authority is saying "Person X says Statement y, person X has often been correct in the past, ergo, Statement Y.

You're referring to yourself as the "authority", and using your track record of success to support all the crazy things you're saying. This is a logical fallacy.

Also, yeah, three years ago Ray Lewis busted Mendenhall's shoulder. Also, DeJon Gomes blew out AD's knee, and Peterson is one of the two or three best backs in the league. Is the NFC East not safe? Or is Ray Lewis only a threat to hurt people because he yells a lot and does that cool dance? Please, enlighten me as to why only the AFC North defenses can injure people. Your whole reluctance to give up the "AFC North defenses will injure people" tangent is one of the dumbest football related things I've ever read, and that's saying a hell of a lot.

For the last time, I have no problem with you not being high on Richardson, but I can't decide if your inability to admit the stupidity of your AFC North-injury statement is more comical or pathetic. You've been ridiculed because instead of just stating things that are true and saying you're down on Richardson, you've made wild claims that have no basis in fact and then acted as though they were. Why would anybody respond well to that?

12th Man- the point is that the Browns likely viewed Hillis as a short-term commodity from the beginning. Between averaging 4.4 yards per carry (good for 18th), being a low draft pick, and having a contract that would take him through his age 26 season, there was virtually no chance that Hillis was part of the Browns long term plans. Richarson would be part of the Browns long term plans. If they're losing, it makes no sense to run him in to the ground.

[Hawks Nest 12th Man]

Because you don't understand what an appeal to authority is, I'll explain it for you.

An appeal to authority is saying "Person X says Statement y, person X has often been correct in the past, ergo, Statement Y.

You're referring to yourself as the "authority", and using your track record of success to support all the crazy things you're saying. This is a logical fallacy.

Also, yeah, three years ago Ray Lewis busted Mendenhall's shoulder. Also, DeJon Gomes blew out AD's knee, and Peterson is one of the two or three best backs in the league. Is the NFC East not safe? Or is Ray Lewis only a threat to hurt people because he yells a lot and does that cool dance? Please, enlighten me as to why only the AFC North defenses can injure people. Your whole reluctance to give up the "AFC North defenses will injure people" tangent is one of the dumbest football related things I've ever read, and that's saying a hell of a lot.

For the last time, I have no problem with you not being high on Richardson, but I can't decide if your inability to admit the stupidity of your AFC North-injury statement is more comical or pathetic. You've been ridiculed because instead of just stating things that are true and saying you're down on Richardson, you've made wild claims that have no basis in fact and then acted as though they were. Why would anybody respond well to that?

12th Man- the point is that the Browns likely viewed Hillis as a short-term commodity from the beginning. Between averaging 4.4 yards per carry (good for 18th), being a low draft pick, and having a contract that would take him through his age 26 season, there was virtually no chance that Hillis was part of the Browns long term plans. Richarson would be part of the Browns long term plans. If they're losing, it makes no sense to run him in to the ground.

Part of sports is the underdog that surprises. Your assumption is correct and I believe if Foster wouldn't have produced the way he did year 2 after his breakout season he wouldn't of received contract. But I also believe if Hillis would of produced similar numbers in 2011 as he did in 2010 he would of been retained by Browns. Neither the Browns or Texans planed for Foster or Hillis to be apart of their long term plans going into 2010 season. Both players were put in the position last season of "OK you did it once now prove it and do it again." Foster did and Hillis didn't. Again you are correct if they are losing the Browns won't run T. Rich into the ground .... but if they are feeding him the rock and winning they will ride him especially considering the state of the Browns franchise. They are starving for a winner. As I said before if the HC , OC and GM are on the hot seat they will definately ride Richardson hard if Browns are winning to save their jobs.

The NFC North has a culture and mentality of playing tough defense. Players from Pitt and Balt take pride in bringing it at all times. Yes I do believe if a defensive player who is traded from say Atlanta Falcons to the Ravens or Steelers will play with more passion, focus and heart. Perhaps you think of NFL Football as only a business.... but it is also a sport. If can .. not always... but can...make a difference in your performance who you play with and where you play. Reputation counts. I will ask you if you know any high level or professional athletes ( Ray Lewis maybe? ) about this. Curious their answer...Don't think there is any greater chance of a player getting injuried in NFC North but I do believe the road is harder traveled trying to go thru defenses like the Steelers, Bengals and Ravens twice a year vs the Falcons, Panthers and Saints.
Invictous although I don't agree with all his points ... I do get the basis of it. Just seems like instead of taking it all in you just want to blast the person instead of having a open mind.

AS TO RICHARDSON POTENTIAL HE WILL BE A STUD !!! FOR BUCS I HOPE LOL

[Shawn]

And.................. He's a BROWN!!!! We will all be able to actually see what happens with T-Rich in Cleveland now, for better or worse