The Curious Case of Keon Coleman

[dmoyer121099]

We’ve all heard the red flags. He can’t separate, ran a disappointing 40, jump ball merchant, etc. Although landing spot isn’t the end all be all (which it shouldn’t), I’ve seen nothing but positive things circulating around him from the Bills front offense and their qb. Could he be the exception due to sheer volume and chemistry with the team and fan base (which he’s seemingly winning over)?

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Hmm, been finally digging into this draft class and Keon Coleman compares very favorably to Allen Robinson and Michael Thomas. Will be a steal where he's going. Also means this might be one of, if not the best WR class we've ever seen.

I have not watched any film on him yet, but just in terms of draft capital, size, athleticism, speed, and collegiate production (dominator, not raw production), he’s very similar and hits all key metrics when it comes to a player of his height. I think people forget ARob also ran a 4.6 at the combine, albeit at a higher weight. The 40 for Coleman is not ideal, but it does pass the threshold, and what pushes it to the back burner is his exceptional leaping ability.

Having said all that, I didn’t draft him anywhere as I liked other players better at his adp. I’ve heard his film is not the greatest, but sometimes the film lies.

[dmoyer121099]

Hmm, been finally digging into this draft class and Keon Coleman compares very favorably to Allen Robinson and Michael Thomas. Will be a steal where he's going. Also means this might be one of, if not the best WR class we've ever seen.

I have not watched any film on him yet, but just in terms of draft capital, size, athleticism, speed, and collegiate production (dominator, not raw production), he’s very similar and hits all key metrics when it comes to a player of his height. I think people forget ARob also ran a 4.6 at the combine, albeit at a higher weight. The 40 for Coleman is not ideal, but it does pass the threshold, and what pushes it to the back burner is his exceptional leaping ability.

Having said all that, I didn’t draft him anywhere as I liked other players better at his adp. I’ve heard his film is not the greatest, but sometimes the film lies.

Those are some solid comps I didn’t think of. I think in totality the metrics analysts use are very useful in splitting hairs between players at similar adp. However, I think that sometimes it’s okay to simplify things and realize that if a team really likes their guy then it’s okay to buy in and trust their judgment. Also helps being tied to a qb like Allen who can certainly get the ball in your hands.

[Cameron Giles]

I’ve seen nothing but positive things circulating around him from the Bills front offense and their qb. Could he be the exception due to sheer volume and chemistry with the team and fan base (which he’s seemingly winning over)?

The draft was a few weeks ago. What team and front office isn't still very optimistic about their picks?

Tee Higgins is a possibility. They both mirror each other size wise. Higgins had similar concerns with a limited route tree, high contested catch rate, separation questions, and a slower than expected 40, and just missed out on the first round like Coleman did.

For me personally, Coleman just isn't the type of base I like to start with in a WR. And, when you look at his route tree in college, he struggled really, really bad. He has a lot of area to grow and is going to be a development type of WR.

[Cameron Giles]

Those are some solid comps I didn’t think of. I think in totality the metrics analysts use are very useful in splitting hairs between players at similar adp. However, I think that sometimes it’s okay to simplify things and realize that if a team really likes their guy then it’s okay to buy in and trust their judgment. Also helps being tied to a qb like Allen who can certainly get the ball in your hands.

Just know that Coleman plays nothing like Thomas or Robinson. Those players had the ability to get open at their size and didn't enter the league as essentially project WRs. Thomas had a sophisticated game from Day 1 in the NFL. Robinson did too, but was killed by bad QB play for so long.

Coleman needs a lot of help with his game. I think Matt Harmon called it right that putting him in the slot and giving him some high percentage stuff will be better than playing him at the X.

[StripesOfKC]

I was a lot more in on Coleman until his final year's production

Running basically even with Johnny Wilson was not the expectation

But that landing spot means the boom would probably be a pretty big boom and in a class with so many questionable WRs and RBs I can't really be below market on him

[TheTroll]

Hmm, been finally digging into this draft class and Keon Coleman compares very favorably to Allen Robinson and Michael Thomas. Will be a steal where he's going. Also means this might be one of, if not the best WR class we've ever seen.

I have not watched any film on him yet, but just in terms of draft capital, size, athleticism, speed, and collegiate production (dominator, not raw production), he’s very similar and hits all key metrics when it comes to a player of his height. I think people forget ARob also ran a 4.6 at the combine, albeit at a higher weight. The 40 for Coleman is not ideal, but it does pass the threshold, and what pushes it to the back burner is his exceptional leaping ability.

Having said all that, I didn’t draft him anywhere as I liked other players better at his adp. I’ve heard his film is not the greatest, but sometimes the film lies.

Those are some nice comps! How does he handle SUVs at high speeds? Should be part of the combine now.

[thunderTung]

I’m out on him for the same reason I was out on London. Now obviously London hasn’t been a complete failure (I’ll still say I think he was over drafted for what he was, in the NFL draft and fantasy)

But the reason being is that his tape reminds me too much of Nkeal Harry, he has caused me a lot of pain and I’ll stay away from any prospects that profile similarly, even if it means I miss out every once in awhile

[BHSU]

Hmm, been finally digging into this draft class and Keon Coleman compares very favorably to Allen Robinson and Michael Thomas. Will be a steal where he's going. Also means this might be one of, if not the best WR class we've ever seen.

I have not watched any film on him yet, but just in terms of draft capital, size, athleticism, speed, and collegiate production (dominator, not raw production), he’s very similar and hits all key metrics when it comes to a player of his height. I think people forget ARob also ran a 4.6 at the combine, albeit at a higher weight. The 40 for Coleman is not ideal, but it does pass the threshold, and what pushes it to the back burner is his exceptional leaping ability.

Having said all that, I didn’t draft him anywhere as I liked other players better at his adp. I’ve heard his film is not the greatest, but sometimes the film lies.

Those are some nice comps! How does he handle SUVs at high speeds? Should be part of the combine now.

Tractor pulls too

[Bronco Billy]

I do not foresee a way Coleman can make a career playing on the outside in the NFL. He succeeded in college by being bigger than opposing CBs and muscling them. There was no sophistication in anything he did as a WR. Those guys do not thrive in the NFL. Harry was typical for that type of WR. Burks is another one. NFL CBs just flat out overwhelm these guys with technique and breaking up plays as the ball arrives as they sit right on their hip. If your primary game is just bullying them, they’ll shut you down.

The only possible hope I see for Coleman is running out of the slot, and I don’t think BUF’s vision for him is there, not with the players they’ve got lined up to play there. And even if he does find a coach that thinks that far out of the box, he’s still got a ways to go.

Not all of this WR class are going to be good or better pros. Some of them will fail. Coleman looks earmarked to be one of those guys IMO.

[Ice]

My new favorite player.

He is way better than some of you think. J. Allen is going to love his want to succeed mindset.

He went 1.8 in my last draft and will be the Bills WR1.

There are several better talents but he has an easiness about him.

Excellent ball tracking skills with soft hands.

[Jigga94]

Has been a strange offseason for him. Feels like he was way overpriced for a moment when we thought he'd go late 1st and expected him to run a little faster. But now here we are with rd 2 capital and separation concerns and hes going early 2nd in SF.

The 40 was a touch slower than we thought, but the athleticism isn't really a question. He also landed with Josh Allen and has the WR1 job for the taking. I have him comped to London/Higgins. He seems underpriced now. I thought many more would keep him in that Brian Thomas tier at 4/5. He's a target of mine late in the 1st. I can't move him lower than rookie WR8, have had him as high as 5.

[CGW]

I had the choice between BTJ and him at 2.03 in a 12TM SF. I took BTJ because that was my predraft ranking, but at 2.03 I think he's price attractively. My main concern was that he just didn't reliably get open at the college level. Made some incredible contested catches when I saw him play though.

I'll have one more draft with an early 2nd that doesnt run until June/July, so maybe I'll have another look at Coleman then.

[Jigga94]

I had the choice between BTJ and him at 2.03 in a 12TM SF. I took BTJ because that was my predraft ranking, but at 2.03 I think he's price attractively. My main concern was that he just didn't reliably get open at the college level. Made some incredible contested catches when I saw him play though.

I'll have one more draft with an early 2nd that doesnt run until June/July, so maybe I'll have another look at Coleman then.

Steal on Thomas there. He shouldn't fall out of the 1st very often

[Anteaters]

Has been a strange offseason for him. Feels like he was way overpriced for a moment when we thought he'd go late 1st and expected him to run a little faster. But now here we are with rd 2 capital and separation concerns and hes going early 2nd in SF.

The 40 was a touch slower than we thought, but the athleticism isn't really a question. He also landed with Josh Allen and has the WR1 job for the taking. I have him comped to London/Higgins. He seems underpriced now. I thought many more would keep him in that Brian Thomas tier at 4/5. He's a target of mine late in the 1st. I can't move him lower than rookie WR8, have had him as high as 5.

If Keon ends up in the London/Higgins production range, I'd be excited to get him with a 2nd. I still haven't decided where I slot him. Fortunately I still have some time to figure it out. These sorts of threads help me learn a little more about players in this range and lower, and point me toward whom I want to investigate further.