Xavier Worthy Official Thread

[Shcritters]

Starting another thread on a polarizing player… Xavier Worthy.

I see a lot of people saying ‘he’s going to be over-drafted’, and I’m not so sure. I think anywhere in the 1.09-1-12 range is not out of the question. 1.08 is probably a stretch… but could see it in some leagues.

He had an amazing freshman year and continued to put up solid numbers the following two years, although never as good as that first year. His size concerns are well known - he’d be a historical outlier if he breaks 1k yards - but it seems to me that the NFL is shifting to smaller/faster WRs and he could be the next to buck like he’s breaking the historical trend (Addison, Flowers, Dell…).

Plant those flags and let’s have at it!

[FantasyFreak]

Another Chiefs WR that can't catch. I think he'll obviously have some splash plays, with that speed. I think tactically, it does a lot for the offense, more than he will be a highly productive player. Pacheco will love him. He's going to keep safeties honest, and it's also great for Kelce on the underneath stuff.

[Jigga94]

The next Tyreek Hill. Or Mecole Hardman.

Good luck to whoever takes him. I have him solidly in the WR7-9 grouping. Probably puts him in the early 2nd of SF drafts, but I suspect he will be taken late 1st by most

[Cameron Giles]

Good:
+ True freshman breakout in a P5
+ Strong age-adjusted production profile
+ Strong receiving yards per team pass attempt
+ Elite athleticism and speed
+ Played 70% of his career snaps out wide
+ 1st round pedigree
+ 13.7 aDOT
+ 7.2 YAC/R is one of the best in class
+ Turned 21 years old a few days ago
+ Ideal landing spot

Bad:
- Drops (4%> 10% > 6%) - had a hand injury as a sophomore
- A significant portion of his production came off screens
- Tape lags behind his best statistics
- Gets open, but not yet there as far as being a nuanced or advanced technician in routes/separation
- Play strength at the LOS
- 34% contested catch rate in three years
- Below average in YPRR vs. single coverage the last two years (~2.5 YPRR)
- 0.35 1st downs/target is really bad
- Poor in EPA/route

You could probably add more to either side. I definitely think there's something here, but Worthy has more work to put in than similar players in his mold that I really liked. He's not much of a chain mover or someone you go to in key pressure moments, which stood out big to me. However, he's nowhere near a gadget guy like a Mecole Hardman or Kadarius Toney are. Those players did squat in college and shockingly did squat in the pros. Worthy's a legitimate WR who can play wide and get open. I think he's going to destroy teams on those third level routes, especially the deep post with Mahomes.

[Bronco Billy]

There are some very real troubling aspects to his game that are going to be big trouble at the next level. He is very poor against press coverage, he is poor in contested catch situations, and he gets taken down easily by first contact. In short, he does not do well with any kind of physicality at all. If any DB gets a hand on him at any point in his route he is pretty much negated. On top of that, he runs really poor routes and is terrible at manipulating DBs. That means pro DBs are going to get their hands on him a lot. His action during route running against air at the combine was literally laughable.

This is not a good recipe for success in the NFL. The league is physical as all get out and CBs will be close to as fast as he is while being substantially stronger and much more nuanced. He’s going to have to find ways to get out into his routes completely clean and that capability is not in his arsenal. Much like Mingo, he actively does not like contact and can’t recover when it happens. Those guys don’t do well in the bigs.

[Bronco Billy]

https://www.facebook.com/reel/987309832 ... tid=0VwfS7

[TheTroll]

https://www.facebook.com/reel/987309832 ... tid=0VwfS7

To quote the great Danny Noonan, “um I could put some stick’em on there for you sir…. My fault.

[spotxc]

Im going to go against the grain here and say if he lasts until the 9-12 range in 1qb, that’s a steal. His drops are over blown as people hold his 2022 season with a broken hand as like his normal self. Guy is not just a speedster, he can run the routes and is a much better prospect than what they’ve drafted at wr in a long time. They just turned a much lesser prospect whom people wrote off last year into a high end dynasty asset. I’m excited for worthy!

[CountZero]

Is anyone else here thinking Worthy over Odunze? I'm seeing some experts going this route, and the thinking is at least partially that Worthy's value will be higher after a year with Mahomes than Odunze as WR3 with a rookie QB. Talk me off the ledge!

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Is anyone else here thinking Worthy over Odunze? I'm seeing some experts going this route, and the thinking is at least partially that Worthy's value will be higher after a year with Mahomes than Odunze as WR3 with a rookie QB. Talk me off the ledge!

That doesn't really make any sense unless you think Worthy is a better receiver than Odunze.

I’ve seen people saying avoid Odunze bc look at what happened to JSN, blocked by 2 veteran WRs, but Odunze is a better prospect than JSN was.

[Jigga94]

Is anyone else here thinking Worthy over Odunze? I'm seeing some experts going this route, and the thinking is at least partially that Worthy's value will be higher after a year with Mahomes than Odunze as WR3 with a rookie QB. Talk me off the ledge!

That doesn't really make any sense unless you think Worthy is a better receiver than Odunze.

I’ve seen people saying avoid Odunze bc look at what happened to JSN, blocked by 2 veteran WRs, but Odunze is a better prospect than JSN was.

Maybe if you play in a super active league that treats players like stocks, I can get behind fading the "bad" situation Odunze has and then trying to buy later from an impatient owner. But he's in a different realm than JSN as prospects and he hasn't budged from WR3 for me all offseason. He will be fine long term

[Payton34]

Everyone is hoping he's Tyreek. Maybe he foots that bill, maybe Hollywood does, maybe nobody does. And when I say that, understand that I get that Tyreek is a special talent, but I'm talking more that role, in that offense, where whomever gets it and is even somewhat successful at it is going to be a very valuable WR commodity.

[trc]

Last I looked at Mizelle ADP, he surpassed Bowers (May drafts). I will not be drafting him there.

[wickerkat1212]

Yeah, I like Worthy a lot, but he's going a bit early for my taste. The only place I even had him in consideration so far (I have three drafts going on, two Superflex, one 1 QB) was at 1.11 (in Superflex) where I took Thomas. Worthy went at 1.09. In my OTHER Superflex he went at 2.02, which is probably where I would have taken him as well.

[Jigga94]

Everyone is hoping he's Tyreek. Maybe he foots that bill, maybe Hollywood does, maybe nobody does. And when I say that, understand that I get that Tyreek is a special talent, but I'm talking more that role, in that offense, where whomever gets it and is even somewhat successful at it is going to be a very valuable WR commodity.

I think he will get that role while Hollywood gets the MVS deep threat role. Hollywood isn't a threat with the ball in his hands. He usually goes down as soon as he sees a defender. The question is how much better is Worthy? I'm betting he's not even 80% of Tyreek