Third Time Analytical Model Results

[StripesOfKC]

Here is last year’s edition:

viewtopic.php?p=2181557&hilit=Second+ti ... l#p2181557

And 2022:

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=226025&hilit=first+time+analytical

QB
Tier 1: Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, JJ McCarthy
Tier 2: Bo Nix
Tier 3: Michael Penix
Tier 4: None

Going back to 2005: Tier 1 hits at about a 75-80% rate, tier 2 at at about 50%, tier 3 at 15-20% and tier 4 at 5-10%

RB (this one I decided to alter a bit as I didn’t like how much I was missing in recent years—my results from prior years are still shown in the links unchanged for the sake of transparency but I shifted it a bit more towards opportunity share in college this year as it would have helped me with guys like Kenneth Walker and Tyjae Spears and has shown to be a fairly sticky stat to NFL opportunity share)
Tier 0: None
Tier 1: Jonathan Brooks
Tier 2: Trey Benson, Marshawn Lloyd, Blake Corum
Tier 3: None
Tier 4: Jaylen Wright, Audric Estime, Bucky Irving, Braelon Allen, Will Shipley, Ray Davis, Konami Vidal, Tyrone Tracy, Isaiah Davis

Back to 2005: Tier 1 prospects hit 75% of the time, tier 2 pretty much 50-50, tier 3 20% and tier 4 below 10% and tier 0 prospects hit almost 100% of the time (grumbles in CJ Spiller)

WR
Tier 0: Marvin Harrison Jr, Malik Nabers
Tier 1: Rome Odunze, Xavier Worthy
Tier 2: Brian Thomas Jr
Tier 3: Xavier Legette, Ladd McConkey, Ricky Pearsall, Keon Coleman, Jalen McMillan, Adonai Mitchell
Tier 4: Ja’Lynn Polk, Malachi Corley, Luke McCaffrey, Jermaine Burton, Roman Wilson
Tier 5: Troy Franklin, Javon Baker, Jacob Cowing, Jamari Thrash, Tejhuan Palmer

Back to 2005: Tier 0 prospects have a 100% hit rate, tier 1 70-75%, tier 2 45-50%, tier 3 25% or so, tier 4 15-20% and tier 5 5-10%

TE—my first year ever with a TE model so still very raw compared to some of these other ones but last year I decided I wanted to try as it is a particularly tricky position
Tier 0: Brock Bowers
Tier 1: Ben Sinnott
Tier 2: None
Tier 3: J’Tavion Sanders, Ereck Ali, Jared Wiley
Tier 4: Jaheim Bell, Tip Reiman

Basically here draft capital matters less besides at the top (though it’s still obviously relevant), athleticism a lot more and prolific receiving production is more of a bonus than a requirement besides for tier 0s of course. More important is involvement (running routes, drawing targets, etc)

Here is how prior classes would have looked

2023
Tier 0: None
Tier 1: Dalton Kincaid, Michael Mayer, Sam Laporta
Tier 2: Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft
Tier 3: Darnell Washington, Josh Whyle, Will Mallory, Luke Schoonmaker
Tier 4: Brenton Strange, Cameron Latu, Zack Kuntz, Elijah Higgins

2022
Tier 0: None
Tier 1: Trey McBride
Tier 2: Greg Dulcich, Jelani Woods
Tier 3: Isaiah Likely, Charlie Kolar, Daniel Bellinger, Cole Turner
Tier 4: James Mitchell, Jeremy Ruckert

2021
Tier 0: Kyle Pitts
Tier 1: None
Tier 2: Pat Freiermuth, Hunter Long
Tier 3: Tommy Tremble, Kyler Granson, Brevin Jordan, Zach Davison
Tier 4: Tre Mckitty

2020
Tier 0: None
Tier 1: None
Tier 2: Cole Kmet, Adam Trautman, Dalton Keene, Devin Asiasi
Tier 3: Albert O, Bryce Hopkins, Harrison Bryant
Tier 4: Josiah Deguara

2019:
Tier 0: None
Tier 1: TJ Hockenson, Noah Fant, Irv Smith
Tier 2: Jace Sternberger, Josh Oliver, Kahale Warring, Dawson Knox
Tier 3: Foster Moreau
Tier 4: Kaden Smith, Drew Sample

[frerichs5]

Thanks for sharing!

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Very cool and very legal. Thanks for sharing.

One question I have is what constitutes a hit. Might want to add that in somewhere.

[Shcritters]

Stripes, thanks for the work and for sharing.

I really appreciate all the folks who do this sort of work and then post it for all to see. It takes a lot of time and effort, and appreciate you putting yourself out there because there will always be questioners/nay-sayers.

Thanks again!

[StripesOfKC]

Very cool and very legal. Thanks for sharing.

One question I have is what constitutes a hit. Might want to add that in somewhere.

I should have noted that. It was in my first post from 2 years ago but not since

A hit at QB or RB is a top 12 season, and a hit at WR is a top 24 season

It’s a little liberal with the “hit” designation but it’s so hard to come up with one uniform standard

Like Malik Nabers having a WR19 season only would be a disappointment but Javon Bake having that would make owners quite happy with that pick even if it is never repeated (say he’s only a WR3 besides that)

With tight end it is even harder because many top 12 “hits” are especially unexciting hence why I didn’t even have hit rates for those (like if Ereck Ali was TE9 in a few years are you pumped even if you got him for a low cost—are Jake Ferguson or Cole Kmet owners thrilled?)

I think for TE I am leaning towards a single top 6 season as a “hit” qualifier (though even that is not perfect)

All PPG of course. I’m not starting a injured players in my lineups

[AZK]

Is there a qualifier for minimum games played when you're running PPG?

Awesome work here.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Very cool and very legal. Thanks for sharing.

One question I have is what constitutes a hit. Might want to add that in somewhere.

I should have noted that. It was in my first post from 2 years ago but not since

A hit at QB or RB is a top 12 season, and a hit at WR is a top 24 season

It’s a little liberal with the “hit” designation but it’s so hard to come up with one uniform standard

Like Malik Nabers having a WR19 season only would be a disappointment but Javon Bake having that would make owners quite happy with that pick even if it is never repeated (say he’s only a WR3 besides that)

With tight end it is even harder because many top 12 “hits” are especially unexciting hence why I didn’t even have hit rates for those (like if Ereck Ali was TE9 in a few years are you pumped even if you got him for a low cost—are Jake Ferguson or Cole Kmet owners thrilled?)

I think for TE I am leaning towards a single top 6 season as a “hit” qualifier (though even that is not perfect)

All PPG of course. I’m not starting a injured players in my lineups

Thanks, that makes sense. Agree the TE top 12 might need some tweaking, but overall looks good.

What killed Penix? Age?

[moishetreats]

Thanks for this year each. Love it and appreciate it!!

What happened to Braelon Allen to keep him off the list?

[StripesOfKC]

Thanks for this year each. Love it and appreciate it!!

What happened to Braelon Allen to keep him off the list?

Me leaving off the Jets when looking through the RBs picked and plugging them in haha.

Both him and Isaiah Davis are tier 4. My bad

[moishetreats]

Thanks for this year each. Love it and appreciate it!!

What happened to Braelon Allen to keep him off the list?

Me leaving off the Jets when looking through the RBs picked and plugging them in haha.

Both him and Isaiah Davis are tier 4. My bad

Hahahahaha.

Thanks!

[StripesOfKC]

Very cool and very legal. Thanks for sharing.

One question I have is what constitutes a hit. Might want to add that in somewhere.

I should have noted that. It was in my first post from 2 years ago but not since

A hit at QB or RB is a top 12 season, and a hit at WR is a top 24 season

It’s a little liberal with the “hit” designation but it’s so hard to come up with one uniform standard

Like Malik Nabers having a WR19 season only would be a disappointment but Javon Bake having that would make owners quite happy with that pick even if it is never repeated (say he’s only a WR3 besides that)

With tight end it is even harder because many top 12 “hits” are especially unexciting hence why I didn’t even have hit rates for those (like if Ereck Ali was TE9 in a few years are you pumped even if you got him for a low cost—are Jake Ferguson or Cole Kmet owners thrilled?)

I think for TE I am leaning towards a single top 6 season as a “hit” qualifier (though even that is not perfect)

All PPG of course. I’m not starting a injured players in my lineups

Thanks, that makes sense. Agree the TE top 12 might need some tweaking, but overall looks good.

What killed Penix? Age?

Age, rushing yards market share and his great season last year was not as efficient as you might think

Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels were a step above in QBR, YPA and EPA. It was good don’t get me wrong but at his age and year in school it should be good

With that said I want to clarify again that the model is just a tool even for me. I frequently end up disagreeing with it and picking differently than it would have me do.

Sometimes it turns out I should have listened (I wanted to trade out of all the 1.6s last year where CJ Stroud was the remaining player from the top tier because he just did not excite me at all—but on the other hand I also knew that Jalen Reagor and N’Keal Harry were overhyped)

Case in point the other night with an awful team in a rookie draft that is a QB wasteland (had zero starters pre draft) I took Caleb 1.1 and then Penix 2.1. None of the WRs after Worthy besides Ladd (who was gone and in general is going too early for me) is all that enticing for me (maybe Pearsall but again going too soon for my price) and at the end of the day a first round top 10 pick QB just has too much upside. I’d have felt better if Nix lasted one more spot though

Taking him over Brooks felt like a spit in the face to my model of course but I grabbed Benson 4 picks later which was more appealing than taking Brooks and grabbing…Spencer Rattler

If Penix has a big preseason or something that turns the hype up I will of course be putting him on the block though

Also for PPG I believe it’s 12 games played in the 17 games era. Before that it was 10 games minimum

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I should have noted that. It was in my first post from 2 years ago but not since

A hit at QB or RB is a top 12 season, and a hit at WR is a top 24 season

It’s a little liberal with the “hit” designation but it’s so hard to come up with one uniform standard

Like Malik Nabers having a WR19 season only would be a disappointment but Javon Bake having that would make owners quite happy with that pick even if it is never repeated (say he’s only a WR3 besides that)

With tight end it is even harder because many top 12 “hits” are especially unexciting hence why I didn’t even have hit rates for those (like if Ereck Ali was TE9 in a few years are you pumped even if you got him for a low cost—are Jake Ferguson or Cole Kmet owners thrilled?)

I think for TE I am leaning towards a single top 6 season as a “hit” qualifier (though even that is not perfect)

All PPG of course. I’m not starting a injured players in my lineups

Thanks, that makes sense. Agree the TE top 12 might need some tweaking, but overall looks good.

What killed Penix? Age?

Age, rushing yards market share and his great season last year was not as efficient as you might think

Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels were a step above in QBR, YPA and EPA. It was good don’t get me wrong but at his age and year in school it should be good

With that said I want to clarify again that the model is just a tool even for me. I frequently end up disagreeing with it and picking differently than it would have me do.

Sometimes it turns out I should have listened (I wanted to trade out of all the 1.6s last year where CJ Stroud was the remaining player from the top tier because he just did not excite me at all—but on the other hand I also knew that Jalen Reagor and N’Keal Harry were overhyped)

Case in point the other night with an awful team in a rookie draft that is a QB wasteland (had zero starters pre draft) I took Caleb 1.1 and then Penix 2.1. None of the WRs after Worthy besides Ladd (who was gone and in general is going too early for me) is all that enticing for me (maybe Pearsall but again going too soon for my price) and at the end of the day a first round top 10 pick QB just has too much upside. I’d have felt better if Nix lasted one more spot though

Taking him over Brooks felt like a spit in the face to my model of course but I grabbed Benson 4 picks later which was more appealing than taking Brooks and grabbing…Spencer Rattler

If Penix has a big preseason or something that turns the hype up I will of course be putting him on the block though

Also for PPG I believe it’s 12 games played in the 17 games era. Before that it was 10 games minimum

Cool, thanks.