Post Draft top 12 1 QB

[killer_of_giants]

though it wasn't really clear if these are our own rankings or how we think drafts will go.

well i have a vague idea of what my rankings are, but how the funk should i know everyone else's?
i do think/hope some players are picked before it's my turn, but there are enough curveballs every year that i'd rather know who i want than hoping that my DNDs go in front of me (not picking on you, just touching on the argument).

i'm more interested in everyone's unique approach, beats a crowdsourced list that ends up looking to like fantasypros'.

[Bronco Billy]

I see the logic but I think Worthy is drafted aggressively for sure. Chiefs, offense , first round pick, imagine hype train will continue to grow. Expect him to being going third or 4th by June

How is Reid’s history on evaluating WRs to draft on day 1 or day 2?

As most of said this isn't doesn't have to be our personal rankings, but how we foresee drafts happening. Given my current rankings/picks I'm hoping others take Worthy/Coleman before me so I don't have to. If they we both to be available at the end of the 1st then that makes a smaller conundrum that I'll end up taking whoever had the better DC (assuming I'll be stuck with the pick).

Agree with most of this.

I thought we were posting our top 12 though. If not, why not just post a consensus adp and be done with the conversation (which I would not prefer - I would much more rather see the opinion of who should be top 12 with some rationale from the people here).

[ThirdWW]

Here’s my take on Worthy…

Do I love him as a prospect, no. But this is a swing for a fences kind of pick. If he hits, it’ll be in a big way. And I’d bet after the first 60 yard bomb TD he catches, you’ll inbox will have a couple decent offers in it.

[Menace2010]

MHJr
Nabers
Odunze
BTJ
Bowers
CW
Brooks
McConkey
Worthy
Benson
Coleman
Pearsall

[Jrblaha]

How is Reid’s history on evaluating WRs to draft on day 1 or day 2?

As most of said this isn't doesn't have to be our personal rankings, but how we foresee drafts happening. Given my current rankings/picks I'm hoping others take Worthy/Coleman before me so I don't have to. If they we both to be available at the end of the 1st then that makes a smaller conundrum that I'll end up taking whoever had the better DC (assuming I'll be stuck with the pick).

Agree with most of this.

I thought we were posting our top 12 though. If not, why not just post a consensus adp and be done with the conversation (which I would not prefer - I would much more rather see the opinion of who should be top 12 with some rationale from the people here).

Yeah, I meant this post to see what peoples personal top 12s for 1 QBs was/is

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Idk where to post this but I’m doing a SF rookie draft and for about 24 picks you feel spoiled for choice, after that it’s like a barren turd wasteland. Usually I have some targets in the 3rd and even 4th rounds but this year it’s like great depth until around pick 24 and then it’s turd central.

[Cameron Giles]

Idk where to post this but I’m doing a SF rookie draft and for about 24 picks you feel spoiled for choice, after that it’s like a barren turd wasteland. Usually I have some targets in the 3rd and even 4th rounds but this year it’s like great depth until around pick 24 and then it’s turd central.

That's what it feels like in 1QB after the first round. There's just a drastic dropoff in quality.

[Bronco Billy]

Idk where to post this but I’m doing a SF rookie draft and for about 24 picks you feel spoiled for choice, after that it’s like a barren turd wasteland. Usually I have some targets in the 3rd and even 4th rounds but this year it’s like great depth until around pick 24 and then it’s turd central.

That's what it feels like in 1QB after the first round. There's just a drastic dropoff in quality.

I love these kinds of drafts. I see some opportunity for significant reward for those willing to dig deeper in their research.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Idk where to post this but I’m doing a SF rookie draft and for about 24 picks you feel spoiled for choice, after that it’s like a barren turd wasteland. Usually I have some targets in the 3rd and even 4th rounds but this year it’s like great depth until around pick 24 and then it’s turd central.

That's what it feels like in 1QB after the first round. There's just a drastic dropoff in quality.

I love these kinds of drafts. I see some opportunity for significant reward for those willing to dig deeper in their research.

Yeah, I mean I haven’t done a deep dive on every rookie. I’m more speaking in terms of historical hit rates. After the top 24 picks or so, you’re left with 4th round WRs, 4th round RBs, the sleeper TE options aren’t as good as other years, and the QBs also seem to have fallen off a cliff after the top 6. All of these hit rates are less than 10% I’m pretty sure, maybe even less than 5%. The 3rd round of rookie drafts always gets dicey, but even more so this year imo.

[gunfrees]

Yeah, I don't see any way that Worthy is not a 1st rounder in rookie drafts, though it wasn't really clear if these are our own rankings or how we think drafts will go.

KC has been sketchy with evaluating WR talent though outside of Rice. Worthy is very different though from what they usually pick.

Is anyone worried about Brian Thomas being stuck behind Kirk and a paid gabe davis (in terms of BTJ vs Worthy situation) or is the talent too big for that?

[Cameron Giles]

That's what it feels like in 1QB after the first round. There's just a drastic dropoff in quality.

I love these kinds of drafts. I see some opportunity for significant reward for those willing to dig deeper in their research.

Yeah, I mean I haven’t done a deep dive on every rookie. I’m more speaking in terms of historical hit rates. After the top 24 picks or so, you’re left with 4th round WRs, 4th round RBs, the sleeper TE options aren’t as good as other years, and the QBs also seem to have fallen off a cliff after the top 6. All of these hit rates are less than 10% I’m pretty sure, maybe even less than 5%. The 3rd round of rookie drafts always gets dicey, but even more so this year imo.

Exactly. The profiles just take a huge dropoff. In 1QB there are:

- 16 WRs selected in the Top 100
- 4 RBs selected in R2-R3
- 3 TEs selected in the Top 100

Once 9-10 WRs go off the board in R1, you're left with a lot of scraps. Good chance you're taking even more of a shot in the dark earlier than you anticipate this year.

There will likely be someone who beats the odds, but it's anyone's guess who that is with so many weak profiles. And the draft capital you have to use to find out isn't attractive.

[Cameron Giles]

Yeah, I don't see any way that Worthy is not a 1st rounder in rookie drafts, though it wasn't really clear if these are our own rankings or how we think drafts will go.

KC has been sketchy with evaluating WR talent though outside of Rice. Worthy is very different though from what they usually pick.

Is anyone worried about Brian Thomas being stuck behind Kirk and a paid gabe davis (in terms of BTJ vs Worthy situation) or is the talent too big for that?

I would take Worthy over Thomas just because he has a better production profile and a better situation. I'm not too worried about Davis long-term, because he's not an X. Jacksonville drafted Thomas to be that long-term and there's no competition for that role. Whether he actually does it is another conversation.

[Vcize]

I think when push comes to shove and people actually start making picks, the top 2 RBs will go much higher. Especially Brooks.

There's just no way a 2nd round RB picked into a situation with a very obvious path to a lead or even feature back role in a draft where there are very few other good RB options is going to fall to the late 1st.

Historically in weak RB drafts we've seen FOURTH ROUND rookies sneak into the 1.08-1.10 range of FF rookie drafts. I don't think a RB drafted in the 2nd round is going to wind up that low in most drafts with no other RBs available.

Yes he has the ACL but he's young for a rookie so even if his first year is a wash he'll still be the same age next year as most rookie RBs.

[Shoreline Steamers]

I think when push comes to shove and people actually start making picks, the top 2 RBs will go much higher. Especially Brooks.

There's just no way a 2nd round RB picked into a situation with a very obvious path to a lead or even feature back role in a draft where there are very few other good RB options is going to fall to the late 1st.

Historically in weak RB drafts we've seen FOURTH ROUND rookies sneak into the 1.08-1.10 range of FF rookie drafts. I don't think a RB drafted in the 2nd round is going to wind up that low in most drafts with no other RBs available.

Yes he has the ACL but he's young for a rookie so even if his first year is a wash he'll still be the same age next year as most rookie RBs.

I know it will happen in my leagues. Guessing (as you say Vcize) that Brooks doesn't make it past 1.08. Benson will probably be gone by 1.10. Corum will be gone early 2nd round. Just the way the guys in my leagues value RB's.

[TheTroll]

I think when push comes to shove and people actually start making picks, the top 2 RBs will go much higher. Especially Brooks.

There's just no way a 2nd round RB picked into a situation with a very obvious path to a lead or even feature back role in a draft where there are very few other good RB options is going to fall to the late 1st.

Historically in weak RB drafts we've seen FOURTH ROUND rookies sneak into the 1.08-1.10 range of FF rookie drafts. I don't think a RB drafted in the 2nd round is going to wind up that low in most drafts with no other RBs available.

Yes he has the ACL but he's young for a rookie so even if his first year is a wash he'll still be the same age next year as most rookie RBs.

I know it will happen in my leagues. Guessing (as you say Vcize) that Brooks doesn't make it past 1.08. Benson will probably be gone by 1.10. Corum will be gone early 2nd round. Just the way the guys in my leagues value RB's.

Yep RB needy Owners will panick at the thought of going another year without replenishing their stable. It will happen