Post Draft top 12 1 QB

[murphysxm]

I feel like I have this conversation every year and it's never the issue people argue it to be.

Yes, the NFL is giving more opportunities to smaller WR's. However, the average weight of the 2024 WR class was still 196 pounds. Xavier weighs 30 pounds less than that. To say that isn't a factor is hard for me to get on board with. It is no longer a death knoll, but he is still an outlier to NFL norms.

[PigeonBoys]

I feel like I have this conversation every year and it's never the issue people argue it to be.

Yes, the NFL is giving more opportunities to smaller WR's. However, the average weight of the 2024 WR class was still 196 pounds. Xavier weighs 30 pounds less than that. To say that isn't a factor is hard for me to get on board with. It is no longer a death knoll, but he is still an outlier to NFL norms.

I'll argue this one till I'm blue in the face but weight and BMI still make a difference. I am not on the Tank Dell hype train even before the Diggs trade or the shooting. I implored anyone to give me a WR that has posted a WR1 season at 165 lbs like Dell has and the closest is Devonta Smith who did it once at 170+ and has been a WR 2 since. Beasley was mentioned but his best year of his decade plus career is WR26. Downs had a promising rookie year but you might need to get your head checked if you think Downs is anything more than a perpetual WR2/3 and they just added AD Mitchell. That's all to say that yes the game has changed and smaller WR's can succeed but success for me is defined differently for smaller WR's because they won't be WR1s, if that's what you're looking for then you need to look elsewhere. Just don't give up elite draft or player capital for guys that are outlier's, more often than not you are going to be disappointed to say the least.

[Vcize]

I feel like I have this conversation every year and it's never the issue people argue it to be.

Yes, the NFL is giving more opportunities to smaller WR's. However, the average weight of the 2024 WR class was still 196 pounds. Xavier weighs 30 pounds less than that. To say that isn't a factor is hard for me to get on board with. It is no longer a death knoll, but he is still an outlier to NFL norms.

I'll argue this one till I'm blue in the face but weight and BMI still make a difference. I am not on the Tank Dell hype train even before the Diggs trade or the shooting. I implored anyone to give me a WR that has posted a WR1 season at 165 lbs like Dell has and the closest is Devonta Smith who did it once at 170+ and has been a WR 2 since. Beasley was mentioned but his best year of his decade plus career is WR26. Downs had a promising rookie year but you might need to get your head checked if you think Downs is anything more than a perpetual WR2/3 and they just added AD Mitchell. That's all to say that yes the game has changed and smaller WR's can succeed but success for me is defined differently for smaller WR's because they won't be WR1s, if that's what you're looking for then you need to look elsewhere. Just don't give up elite draft or player capital for guys that are outlier's, more often than not you are going to be disappointed to say the least.

Let's not mix a small population and small number of successes here.

There aren't many of these smaller players, but the ones there are have not failed expectations. If you take the success rate of guys drafted in the first 3 rounds at 170 or less it's pretty solid (albeit on a very small sample size), and no worse than the hit rate of any average WR. Probably a bit higher, in fact. There just aren't many of them.

As to there not being many of them, that change doesn't happen overnight. Remember when Devonta Smith came out the sample size was essentially 0. Now it's a half dozen. As these guys continue to have success there will be more and more of them, as guys stop trying to pack on size to meet some arbitrary outdated criteria. It takes time, and guys like the ones listed and maybe Worthy himself are the ones that drive those changes.

Remember, we're not THAT far removed from 180lbs being considered too skinny. 20 years ago FF players weren't interested unless you were 6'1" 200lbs.

[Cameron Giles]

I feel like I have this conversation every year and it's never the issue people argue it to be.

Yes, the NFL is giving more opportunities to smaller WR's. However, the average weight of the 2024 WR class was still 196 pounds. Xavier weighs 30 pounds less than that. To say that isn't a factor is hard for me to get on board with. It is no longer a death knoll, but he is still an outlier to NFL norms.

Historically it's an outlier, but that ignores what the league is today and where it's continuing to trend. I just gave you a list of players who are around the same weight and have not been hindered by that in order to translate their game.

Worthy is not a test case. There are already players his size doing exactly what KC will want him to do.

[Tvols]

Tank Dell - 5'8, 165
Marquise Brown - 5'9, 166
Josh Downs - 5'9, 171
Xavier Worthy - 5'11, 165
Jordan Addison - 5'11, 175
DeVonta Smith - 6'0, 170

Unless someone thinks 5 lbs of water weight is the difference between these players games translating.

Tank and MB missed time to injury, as I said it is a factor

Who hasn't missed games because of injury? I never get why weight is the reason lighter players get injured, but "it's football" is the reason for everyone else. Anthony Richardson played in 4 games last year and he's built like a created player on Madden. Justin Jefferson has missed more games than Devonta Smith.

I feel like I have this conversation every year and it's never the issue people argue it to be.

so do we feel he is more Smith or more MB ? I see more MB and at worthy's cost im out..

[Cameron Giles]

Tank and MB missed time to injury, as I said it is a factor

Who hasn't missed games because of injury? I never get why weight is the reason lighter players get injured, but "it's football" is the reason for everyone else. Anthony Richardson played in 4 games last year and he's built like a created player on Madden. Justin Jefferson has missed more games than Devonta Smith.

I feel like I have this conversation every year and it's never the issue people argue it to be.

so do we feel he is more Smith or more MB ? I see more MB and at worthy's cost im out..

I don't think he's as good as Hollywood entering the league, but that's the type of player he aligns with more.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Desean Jackson was also around 170lbs. I used to be a big weight guy but these days (with all the emphasis on less roughness/contact) it simply doesn’t matter as much. Yes, it’s ideal if they weigh more, but at this point just give me the guy that can run routes and play ball. You just have to be selective though. You don’t want to load up on these guys, but if one looks legit then go for it.

Edit: also, I realize this is probably narrative nonsense, but it’s speculated Worthy actually dropped some weight to shred the combine and go for the 40 record. His playing weight is actually likely higher than his combine weight, which is sort of a reversal how these things usually go.

[PigeonBoys]

Yes, the NFL is giving more opportunities to smaller WR's. However, the average weight of the 2024 WR class was still 196 pounds. Xavier weighs 30 pounds less than that. To say that isn't a factor is hard for me to get on board with. It is no longer a death knoll, but he is still an outlier to NFL norms.

I'll argue this one till I'm blue in the face but weight and BMI still make a difference. I am not on the Tank Dell hype train even before the Diggs trade or the shooting. I implored anyone to give me a WR that has posted a WR1 season at 165 lbs like Dell has and the closest is Devonta Smith who did it once at 170+ and has been a WR 2 since. Beasley was mentioned but his best year of his decade plus career is WR26. Downs had a promising rookie year but you might need to get your head checked if you think Downs is anything more than a perpetual WR2/3 and they just added AD Mitchell. That's all to say that yes the game has changed and smaller WR's can succeed but success for me is defined differently for smaller WR's because they won't be WR1s, if that's what you're looking for then you need to look elsewhere. Just don't give up elite draft or player capital for guys that are outlier's, more often than not you are going to be disappointed to say the least.

Let's not mix a small population and small number of successes here.

There aren't many of these smaller players, but the ones there are have not failed expectations. If you take the success rate of guys drafted in the first 3 rounds at 170 or less it's pretty solid (albeit on a very small sample size), and no worse than the hit rate of any average WR. Probably a bit higher, in fact. There just aren't many of them.

As to there not being many of them, that change doesn't happen overnight. Remember when Devonta Smith came out the sample size was essentially 0. Now it's a half dozen. As these guys continue to have success there will be more and more of them, as guys stop trying to pack on size to meet some arbitrary outdated criteria. It takes time, and guys like the ones listed and maybe Worthy himself are the ones that drive those changes.

Remember, we're not THAT far removed from 180lbs being considered too skinny. 20 years ago FF players weren't interested unless you were 6'1" 200lbs.

The problem with that sentiment is that there are alot of these guys out there they just don't produce lol. You talk about hit rates but what are you hitting on if the ceiling is a WR2 season once? I guess if you're spending a 3rd on one of these guys then the cost to acquire is just about zero so no problem there. I do have a problem with the thought that smaller WR's are now successful. They are only successful by contrast to what their counterparts have done in the past which was just about nothing.

Here's a list of the past several years:

2018 - NONE RDS 1-7
2019 - Hollywood Brown 166lbs (Best WR 24, RD1), Scottie Miller 174lbs (Best WR 69, RD6)
2020 - D Mooney 177 lbs (Best WR 23, RD5 )
2021 - D Smith 170 lbs (Best WR 10, RD 1), E Moore 178 lbs (Best WR 55, RD 2), R Moore 179 lbs (Best WR 67, RD2), Tutu Atwell 155 lbs (Best WR 62, RD 2), J Dardon 174 lbs (total 12 career points, RD4)
2022 - Jameson Williams, 179 lbs (Best WR 81, Rd1), J Dotson 178lbs (Best WR50, RD1), W Robinson 178lbs (Best WR 54, RD2), Calvin Austin 162lbs (Best WR 107, Rd4)
2023 - J Addison 175lbs (Best WR 21, RD1), Tank Dell 165lbs (WR 38, Rd3), J Hyatt 176lbs (WR 98, RD3), Josh Downs 171lba (WR 46, RD3), Derius Davis 165lbs (WR132, RD4), Charlie Jones 175lbs (WR 156, RD4), Tyler Scott 177bs (WR135, RD4)

As you can see the frequency of these smaller WR's being drafted and drafted higher is happening more often. However, I don't see really any success stories here (I WILL NOT count Tank Dell's half season as a success story). The best season put up in this data set is Devonta Smith at WR 10 and it's not even close thereafter. So you've gotten one WR1 season out of a player of that size despite 16 players being selected in the past 3 drafts alone. You've got Hollywood Brown, Jameson Williams, Dotson with RD 1 draft capital that has never lived up to the draft capital. You've got Addison who looks great but also weighs 10lbs or more than Tank Dell so not sure we're talking the same type of player here anymore. All this to say I will stick to my guns saying 165 lb WR's aren't ones you want to invest in unless you temper expectations knowing there's a very real low ceiling for those players.

[mild]

I definitely think it still matters. It is not a complete deal breaker, but it is a factor. Devante Smith is the only real "success story" I can think of at this weight and draft capital.

Tank Dell was on pace for 1000 as a rookie last year as a 3rd rounder. Marquise Brown has already hit 1000 before. Cole Beasley caught 80+ in a season. Addison hit 911 as a rookie. Downs was good last year.

It's a different game. It's not nearly as brutal physically, players are protected better, and the league has gotten so much better at route concepts that favor pure separation ability. If Worthy is a bust, it will have nothing to do with how much he weighs.

Both these things can be true at the same time. Basically the only player who has ever been successful close to Xavier's weight is Smith. AND... this is a different NFL nowadays where lighter players can be successful (I think).

I have a feeling KC will put him into motion a TON... and line him up so that corners can't get a hand on him before he's 'off and running'.

If there's one system in the NFL who I think can maximize Xavier's skillset via scheme KC's braintrust has to be near the top of that list.

You guys ever heard of Desean Jackson?

5'10... 175lbs... 4.35 40...

Now, remind me... I guess I've forgotten... who was his coach again...?

[Forza_Azzurri]

The thing about Worthy is not that his situation elevated his talent ... his situation mitigated his risks IMO. The biggest knock on Worthy is whether he can get off of press coverage. I can't think of a better scenario than being on KC to scheme this for him.

[PigeonBoys]

Tank Dell was on pace for 1000 as a rookie last year as a 3rd rounder. Marquise Brown has already hit 1000 before. Cole Beasley caught 80+ in a season. Addison hit 911 as a rookie. Downs was good last year.

It's a different game. It's not nearly as brutal physically, players are protected better, and the league has gotten so much better at route concepts that favor pure separation ability. If Worthy is a bust, it will have nothing to do with how much he weighs.

Both these things can be true at the same time. Basically the only player who has ever been successful close to Xavier's weight is Smith. AND... this is a different NFL nowadays where lighter players can be successful (I think).

I have a feeling KC will put him into motion a TON... and line him up so that corners can't get a hand on him before he's 'off and running'.

If there's one system in the NFL who I think can maximize Xavier's skillset via scheme KC's braintrust has to be near the top of that list.

You guys ever heard of Desean Jackson?

5'10... 175lbs... 4.35 40...

Now, remind me... I guess I've forgotten... who was his coach again...?

So we have to go all the way back to 2013 to find a guy of the similar size putting up a WR1 season. He was also close in 2009 it looks like. Another way of saying this is in the past 11 years there have been two WR's at 170lbs putting up ONE WR1 season apiece. I don't know if you remember but DJax was not a perpetual WR1. He topped out with 82 receptions in 2013, 1332 yds in 2013 and never once caught double digit TD's. Outside of that 2013 season DJax was a boom/bust WR2.

[wickerkat1212]

I'm stoked in Superflex, one league I have the 1.02, 1.06, 2.02, 2.04. It's TEP so I expect to go Harrison, Bowers. In the 2nd round I think there will be some great players there, been trying to get the 2.03 as well. Even in 1 QB I think there are guys later you can target—Corley, Estime, Sinnott, etc.

[TheTroll]

I'm stoked in Superflex, one league I have the 1.02, 1.06, 2.02, 2.04. It's TEP so I expect to go Harrison, Bowers. In the 2nd round I think there will be some great players there, been trying to get the 2.03 as well. Even in 1 QB I think there are guys later you can target—Corley, Estime, Sinnott, etc.

I am looking forward to your rookie drafts more than my own!

[Cameron Giles]

So we have to go all the way back to 2013 to find a guy of the similar size putting up a WR1 season.

This is moving the goal posts. The discussion is not "Is Xavier Worthy a WR1?". The discussion is whether his weight is a detriment to his game translating to the next level. And based on similar and recent examples, the answer is no. The NFL has been trending in this direction for a while and there are no signs that it's stopping.

Even if you look at a player like Tutu Atwell, the reason he's bad has nothing to do with weight.

[wickerkat1212]

I'm stoked in Superflex, one league I have the 1.02, 1.06, 2.02, 2.04. It's TEP so I expect to go Harrison, Bowers. In the 2nd round I think there will be some great players there, been trying to get the 2.03 as well. Even in 1 QB I think there are guys later you can target—Corley, Estime, Sinnott, etc.

I am looking forward to your rookie drafts more than my own!

LOL. Made a lot of moves. In my 1 qb I have 1.01, 2.10, 3.01, 3.02, 3.09, 3.10. We'll see what shakes out.