Predictions for the Draft

[Bronco Billy]

I should have also stated, and I didn’t study 4th round rbs in particular, but in general, day 2 rbs are far better bets than day 3 rbs. I don’t have the exact numbers on 3rd vs 4th round though.

To back this up, the Athletic did a study a few years ago looking at where Pro Bowlers come from at each position:

Percentage that come from Day 1/Day 2:

WR - 78.8%
TE - 76.1%
RB - 87.1%
QB - 88.0%

Percentage that come from Day 3/UDFA:

WR - 21.2%
TE - 23.9%
RB - 12.9%
QB - 12.0%

Just off percentages, I would not be drafting a 4th round RB over a 3rd round RB. We always say you can find a good RB "anywhere", but usually that RB tends to come from Day 1 and Day 2.

Sucks, because pre-draft I liked Wright way more than Corum. But I think it speaks volumes that in a weak RB group, no team moved on him in the Top 100.

Awfully slanted survey when you’re lumping in 5th, 6th, 7th rounders and UDFAs with the 4th rounders while 3rd rounders get the benefit of being grouped with 1st and 2nd rounders to make such a definitive statement. And most especially in the new RB devalued NFL.

Going by this:

https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comm ... ?rdt=56343

there doesn’t seem to be the huge disparity that you’re indicating.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I should have also stated, and I didn’t study 4th round rbs in particular, but in general, day 2 rbs are far better bets than day 3 rbs. I don’t have the exact numbers on 3rd vs 4th round though.

To back this up, the Athletic did a study a few years ago looking at where Pro Bowlers come from at each position:

Percentage that come from Day 1/Day 2:

WR - 78.8%
TE - 76.1%
RB - 87.1%
QB - 88.0%

Percentage that come from Day 3/UDFA:

WR - 21.2%
TE - 23.9%
RB - 12.9%
QB - 12.0%

Just off percentages, I would not be drafting a 4th round RB over a 3rd round RB. We always say you can find a good RB "anywhere", but usually that RB tends to come from Day 1 and Day 2.

Sucks, because pre-draft I liked Wright way more than Corum. But I think it speaks volumes that in a weak RB group, no team moved on him in the Top 100.

Awfully slanted survey when you’re lumping in 5th, 6th, 7th rounders and UDFAs with the 4th rounders while 3rd rounders get the benefit of being grouped with 1st and 2nd rounders to make such a definitive statement. And most especially in the new RB devalued NFL.

Going by this:

https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comm ... ?rdt=56343

there doesn’t seem to be the huge disparity that you’re indicating.

I might look into this later when I have more time, but even if it’s only a 10% difference that’s still fairly significant because it’s a compounding factor. There’s less hits, and also the players that do hit in the 4th round probably don’t hit as hard (on average) as those from the 3rd round. So the 10% can be a little misleading in that regard.

[FantasyFreak]

So I’m starting the Sione Vaki fan club and hype train. I think people have missed that he was announced as a RB. Brad Holmes has confirmed this.

He played offense in HS which is why he looked natural when he filled in. The Lions plan for the future. It’s possible if he works out he’s the future thunder to Gibbs’ lightning. They moved up to get him after all. At minimum he takes Craig Reynolds snaps and returns this year.

Just saying he’s being forgotten and RBs in the 6th and 7th are being taken over him.

I think he's a ST guy as much as anything. Why would it be "at minimum" that he takes snaps and the return job from Reynolds? Tons of guys with his draft capital get cut.

Last year at this time, people were talking about DeWayne McBride being the Vikings starting RB.

It's cool to like a late round guy, but the "at minimum" for Vaki is cut.

They traded up, gave up additional picks, so they can cut him. Got it.

He’s going to play ST for sure. Brad said that. He also said he wasn’t “majoring” in RB and imagine what he can be if he was.

Maybe he doesn’t pan out. But I’m pointing out people aren’t even drafting a guy they say is a RB, drafted in the 4th, that they traded up to get, and instead picking Brendan Rice or WRs in the 6th and 7th that are buried.

It can happen. 3rd round picks have been cut in camp. I remember 2nd rounder getting cut before. I'm just saying, a guy with that type of draft capital, his worst case scenario is cut, not taking the snaps from a currently rostered player. That's just the reality. I'm not saying it WILL happen. Day 3 guys can get cut as rookies, if they can't hang. Or practice squadded etc.

Just trying to be real about the range of outcomes, as you stated the worst case scenario was getting Reynolds snaps and returns. The other possibility is they switch him back to his college position because he doesn't have the ability to be an NFL RB. All possible.

[cazzie33]

I'm sticking to the theory Vaki is here to hang out with fellow Tongan drafted @ OT from B.C. on the taxi/ practice squad to see what they have in these two projects picks

[81-]

My prediction?
Pain...