Rank Your Top Six in TEP Superflex

[wickerkat1212]

I'm trying to set my board. I know this may change after the draft. But today—
—in a 12-man, 1 ppr, TEP (2 total PPR for TEs), where we start qb-rb-rb-wr-wr-wr-te-superflex-flex-flex
please rank your top six picks. I have it—

1.01 Williams
1.02 Harrison
1.03 Bowers
1.04 Nabers
1.05 Daniels
1.06 Maye/JJM/Odunze—still not sure here

You?

[Mtt33]

Caleb
Harrison
Nabers/odunze
Bowers
Maye
Daniels

If bowers gets top 10 capital I’d put him 3rd in a 2ppr but I want to see that first. lm sure most will have the qbs over the WRs but think the 3 WRs are elite “sure thing” WRs.
Typically I don’t draft on need but need would factor in here because I think the WRs and qbs (after Caleb and Harrison) are fairly interchangeable.

[wickerkat1212]

Caleb
Harrison
Nabers/odunze
Bowers
Maye
Daniels

If bowers gets top 10 capital I’d put him 3rd in a 2ppr but I want to see that first. lm sure most will have the qbs over the WRs but think the 3 WRs are elite “sure thing” WRs.
Typically I don’t draft on need but need would factor in here because I think the WRs and qbs (after Caleb and Harrison) are fairly interchangeable.

Thanks. Does anything change for you if you take Harrison at 1.02? Or are you okay double-dipping at 1.06 with WR? What about if your TEs in a TEP league are pretty average—Ferguson, Kraft, nothing else.

[Anteaters]

Caleb
Harrison
Daniels
Maye
Nabers
Odunze
Bowers

[wickerkat1212]

Caleb
Harrison
Daniels
Maye
Nabers
Odunze
Bowers

So even in TEP you have Bowers at the bottom of this list? Don't believe he's elite or been burned at TE too often?

[Anteaters]

Caleb
Harrison
Daniels
Maye
Nabers
Odunze
Bowers

So even in TEP you have Bowers at the bottom of this list? Don't believe he's elite or been burned at TE too often?

Prior to the NFL draft, I'm not drafting any rookie TE without knowing his landing spot. By my normal drafting standards, I was being generous to put him as high as 7 here.

In SF, I'm always taking reasonable QB bets over a TE. Always. Even in TEP. If Bowers doesn't put up T4TE stats year in year out, I consider picking a TE this early a bust considering the opportunity cost.

I think Bowers is relatively talented enough. However, unlike other positions, I think it's more difficult for TEs to translate college production to NFL production; meaning it's also more difficult for us to predict which ones will do it.

2023 In a random SF/TEP league ...
T15 scorers ppg was 11QBs, 2WRs, 2RBs
16-30 scorers ppg was 10QBs, 2WRs, 1RB, 2TEs
31-50 scorers ppg was 5QBs, 3WRs, 7RBs, 5TEs
51-75 scorers ppg included only 3TEs and two of them were in the 70s. 10WRs, 10RBs.

As I see it, to be worthy of a T10 fantasy pick, a TE has to give me a shot at being a T50 scorer. I'm not willing to bet that any TE is going to be a T5/T6 TE. I don't see the odds as being in my favor.

At 1.06, I feel a lot better taking rookie QB3 or rookie WR3 rather than rookie TE1. When you factor in the fact it takes most TEs 2-3 years to get up to speed, while it takes RB two weeks, and WRs about two months, that compounds the problem of drafting TEs early. These guys can be very good real life TEs but only average for fantasy.

In a mandatory start 2TE league, I'll adjust accordingly. In a TEP league starting only 1, I shy away in the T10picks.
In a non TEP start 1TE league, I pretty much ignore TEs in the first round (maybe first two) of rookie drafts. In one of my leagues like this, the top TE by ppg (Laporta) was ranked #115. Not spending my 1st round pick on that. Nope.

[Mtt33]

Caleb
Harrison
Daniels
Maye
Nabers
Odunze
Bowers

So even in TEP you have Bowers at the bottom of this list? Don't believe he's elite or been burned at TE too often?

Prior to the NFL draft, I'm not drafting any rookie TE without knowing his landing spot. By my normal drafting standards, I was being generous to put him as high as 7 here.

In SF, I'm always taking reasonable QB bets over a TE. Always. Even in TEP. If Bowers doesn't put up T4TE stats year in year out, I consider picking a TE this early a bust considering the opportunity cost.

I think Bowers is relatively talented enough. However, unlike other positions, I think it's more difficult for TEs to translate college production to NFL production; meaning it's also more difficult for us to predict which ones will do it.

2023 In a random SF/TEP league ...
T15 scorers ppg was 11QBs, 2WRs, 2RBs
16-30 scorers ppg was 10QBs, 2WRs, 1RB, 2TEs
31-50 scorers ppg was 5QBs, 3WRs, 7RBs, 5TEs
51-75 scorers ppg included only 3TEs and two of them were in the 70s. 10WRs, 10RBs.

As I see it, to be worthy of a T10 fantasy pick, a TE has to give me a shot at being a T50 scorer. I'm not willing to bet that any TE is going to be a T5/T6 TE. I don't see the odds as being in my favor.

At 1.06, I feel a lot better taking rookie QB3 or rookie WR3 rather than rookie TE1. When you factor in the fact it takes most TEs 2-3 years to get up to speed, while it takes RB two weeks, and WRs about two months, that compounds the problem of drafting TEs early. These guys can be very good real life TEs but only average for fantasy.

In a mandatory start 2TE league, I'll adjust accordingly. In a TEP league starting only 1, I shy away in the T10picks.

What level was the premium you’re pulling those stats from? This is a 2ppr league, I would imagine a few TE were in the top 15 in this format?

[Anteaters]

What level was the premium you’re pulling those stats from? This is a 2ppr league, I would imagine a few TE were in the top 15 in this format?

tiered
RB 0.5
WR 1.0
TE 1.5

The 2ppr might bump a couple of guys up, but it doesn't change the overall huge dropoff at relatively quick succession. TE1-4, TE5-8, TE9-20. If a TE can't hang around the top 5 or top 7 scorers, he's almost JAG. I mean JAG in the sense that I can get TE14-16 a lot cheaper than TE8, but it won't really cost me points wise. That would be Hunter Henry versus Kmet. And in a start 1TE league, all I need is one and I don't mind losing 15% scoring at the position if I get it cheaper.

I give more weight to TEs in a start 2TE league than a TEP league.

[Mtt33]

What level was the premium you’re pulling those stats from? This is a 2ppr league, I would imagine a few TE were in the top 15 in this format?

tiered
RB 0.5
WR 1.0
TE 1.5

The 2ppr might bump a couple of guys up, but it doesn't change the overall huge dropoff at relatively quick succession. TE1-4, TE5-8, TE9-20. If a TE can't hang around the top 5 or top 7 scorers, he's almost JAG. I mean JAG in the sense that I can get TE14 a lot cheaper than TE7, but it won't really cost me points wise.

I give more weight to TEs in a start 2TE league than a TEP league.

I agree 2TE is more of a premium, but I think you might be understating the difference between 1.5ppr and 2ppr for TEs. 1.5 is closer to no premium than it is to 2 IMO. 2ppr makes lots of TEs flexible and the price for that 14th te typically goes way up. I’m only in 1 league with 2ppr for te and it’s hard to get TEs.

[wickerkat1212]

Thank you for all of this, it really is making me think differently about this pick at 1.06. If it helps, here are the top ten WRS with any TEs that broke into that top ten from last year—

1. Lamb, CeeDee DAL WR 367.70
2. Hill, Tyreek MIA WR 355.20
HOCK 314
KELCE 312
ENGRAM 310
LAPORTA 306
3. St. Brown, Amon-Ra DET WR 304.23
4. Brown, A.J. PHI WR 289.70
5. Nacua, Puka LAR WR 284.40
NJOKU 282
6. Allen, Keenan LAC WR 280.86
7. Evans, Mike TBB WR 277.30
8. Moore, D.J. CHI WR 276.10
KITTLE 268
9. Diggs, Stefon BUF WR 258.10
10. Chase, Ja'Marr CIN WR 256.82
MCBRIDE 247

[abloom]

Caleb
Maye
MHJ
Nabers
Daniels
Ordunze

Bowers is my 1.07 unless McCarthy gets top 10 draft capital.

Don't care about the 2 pt TEP. Too much is unknown about landing spot for Bowers and right now the biggest hope is that he lands in LAC, but even if he does, do we think that offense is going to be through the air or on the ground?

[wickerkat1212]

Caleb
Maye
MHJ
Nabers
Daniels
Ordunze

Bowers is my 1.07 unless McCarthy gets top 10 draft capital.

Don't care about the 2 pt TEP. Too much is unknown about landing spot for Bowers and right now the biggest hope is that he lands in LAC, but even if he does, do we think that offense is going to be through the air or on the ground?

Thanks, appreciate that.

[Anteaters]

What level was the premium you’re pulling those stats from? This is a 2ppr league, I would imagine a few TE were in the top 15 in this format?

tiered
RB 0.5
WR 1.0
TE 1.5

The 2ppr might bump a couple of guys up, but it doesn't change the overall huge dropoff at relatively quick succession. TE1-4, TE5-8, TE9-20. If a TE can't hang around the top 5 or top 7 scorers, he's almost JAG. I mean JAG in the sense that I can get TE14 a lot cheaper than TE7, but it won't really cost me points wise.

I give more weight to TEs in a start 2TE league than a TEP league.

I agree 2TE is more of a premium, but I think you might be understating the difference between 1.5ppr and 2ppr for TEs. 1.5 is closer to no premium than it is to 2 IMO. 2ppr makes lots of TEs flexible and the price for that 14th te typically goes way up. I’m only in 1 league with 2ppr for te and it’s hard to get TEs.

Maybe I'm understating the difference between 1.5ppm and 2ppr a bit. But I think combining that with the fall off in production after the top 3-4 and the big huddle of similar stats from 9-20 makes TEs somewhat superfluous in 1TE leagues. If you have one of the top 3 or 4, you have something special.

If you continually shoot for the next best TE, I think the miss hurts too much because you end up with a TE you spent a premium pick on that's not going to help your team much in a 1TE league. If I miss on Waddle/Devonta, even when they don't become a top tier fantasy WR, they still contribute significantly to my team. Miss on a early TE pick and you don't really get that fall back help. You just get a guy sitting on your bench ... waiting for a sunny day to look good every once in a while.

But that's my philosophy. I know some people strongly adhere to the positional advantage theory. I know 2ppr TEP makes that theory appear stronger. I disagree the result of chasing the next top TE is a consistently/predictable winning pursuit. Especially before the NFL draft. Situation matters more to Bowers than it does the top rookie WR.

[wickerkat1212]

tiered
RB 0.5
WR 1.0
TE 1.5

The 2ppr might bump a couple of guys up, but it doesn't change the overall huge dropoff at relatively quick succession. TE1-4, TE5-8, TE9-20. If a TE can't hang around the top 5 or top 7 scorers, he's almost JAG. I mean JAG in the sense that I can get TE14 a lot cheaper than TE7, but it won't really cost me points wise.

I give more weight to TEs in a start 2TE league than a TEP league.

I agree 2TE is more of a premium, but I think you might be understating the difference between 1.5ppr and 2ppr for TEs. 1.5 is closer to no premium than it is to 2 IMO. 2ppr makes lots of TEs flexible and the price for that 14th te typically goes way up. I’m only in 1 league with 2ppr for te and it’s hard to get TEs.

Maybe I'm understating the difference between 1.5ppm and 2ppr a bit. But I think combining that with the fall off in production after the top 3-4 and the big huddle of similar stats from 9-20 makes TEs somewhat superfluous in 1TE leagues. If you have one of the top 3 or 4, you have something special.

If you continually shoot for the next best TE, I think the miss hurts too much because you end up with a TE you spent a premium pick on that's not going to help your team much in a 1TE league. If I miss on Waddle/Devonta, even when they don't become a top tier fantasy WR, they still contribute significantly to my team. Miss on a early TE pick and you don't really get that fall back help. You just get a guy sitting on your bench ... waiting for a sunny day to look good every once in a while.

But that's my philosophy. I know some people strongly adhere to the positional advantage theory. I know 2ppr TEP makes that theory appear stronger. I disagree the result of chasing the next top TE is a consistently/predictable winning pursuit. Especially before the NFL draft. Situation matters more to Bowers than it does the top rookie WR.

Oh I will for sure look at his landing spot before I take him at 1.06 in TEP.

[Tvols]

Caleb
Maye
MHJ
Nabers
Daniels
Ordunze

Bowers is my 1.07 unless McCarthy gets top 10 draft capital.

Don't care about the 2 pt TEP. Too much is unknown about landing spot for Bowers and right now the biggest hope is that he lands in LAC, but even if he does, do we think that offense is going to be through the air or on the ground?

im kinda here, TE in 2 pt ppr score a lot but unless we actually know what team and how they could be used, it could be a totally wasted pick, kinda like what Pitts has done. if you took pitts over chase in this format I think one would have lost out. That could change this year finally but we shall see.