Garrett Wilson or Malik Nabers?

[Dynasty DeLorean]

We have different definitions of great it seems.

I do not consider WR21 and WR26 finishes as "great"

I usually reserve "great" for a WR1 performance, like Puka, Jefferson, or Chase in their rookie season, or Waddle or DeVonta Smith in their 2nd seasons.

I realize that A's are handed out in colleges like candy now, versus 30+ years ago, but we really should expect more from "great" players than above average performances. Just my opinion.

People acting like Wilson is a bona fide stud like Jefferson, Chase, or Lamb is just mind boggling to me.

Just don’t be so obtuse. Wilson had a GREAT rookie season, and then his 2nd season was also very good but mired by horrific qb play. You seem more intent on proving yourself right than taking in all the available information and making a good decision. To each their own I guess.

Again, I will just say that we have different interpretations of the word: GREAT

Interesting, as I don't recall Bijan Robinson receiving so much hate from the community last year pre-draft, but perhaps he did.

Maybe I am too high on rookies, as I had Bijan as dynasty RB1 before the draft in 2023.
I have to admit that he has fallen slightly IMO, probably tied for 1st with Breece Hall on my list now.

Whatever, I get that some need to see NFL production, as most of my league-mates do.
I'm fine taking their draft picks that they are afraid to make.
I just got the 1.08 and 1.12 in 12 team SF TEP for Pickens and Dotson.
Sold Brian Robinson for two mid 2nds, traded away JSN and Kincaid for Hockenson + two mid 1sts (1.06 in 2024).

I have five 1st round picks in 2024, and four 1sts in 2025, and I am not afraid to make those picks, but I do realize that others are afraid of rookies.

There is rookie fever and rookie fear. Yes, they can bust, like JSN and QJ.
But if they hit like Bijan, Gibbs, Stroud, LaPorta, etc., their value will never be cheaper than what you paid in the rookie draft.

Maybe the fact that I play in Devy leagues helps reduce my fear of rookies, since I am drafting high school players in my Devy leagues.
Who knows?

I get where you’re coming from but the Nabers bijan comparison is apples to oranges to me. RB is a much more straight forward position to translate from college to nfl in my opinion. Guys like Saquon and bijan were basically can’t miss prospects. Bijan was considered rb1 without much pushback because every other top rb was either old or injured. If Breece or JT were healthy, Bijan might not have been regarded as the rb1. Also, the shelf life of a rb is much shorter, so if you’re wrong, you’re only wrong for like 3 years. For example, you trade JT for Bijan, and in this hypothetical bijan becomes a turd in the nfl. Well, it sucks but it only sucks for a few years. If you’re wrong on a wr, you’re wrong for double or triple that timeframe. We know Garret Wilson is good, and he’ll be good for another 7+ years most likely. So if you’re wrong about Nabers you’re feeling the pain exponentially longer. Age is also more important for RBs. 23 years old to 20 years old is a lifetime in rb years. The same is a blip on the radar in wr terms. WRs actually peak around 26/27 years of age if I’m not mistaken. So lopping off 2-3 years going from a JT to a Bijan is a big advantage, whereas going from Wilson to Nabers offers very little advantage, if any. RBs are also more volatile and prone to injury, so a top rb is not going to have the same consistency and value insulation as a top wr. The point is not that I’m terrified of rookies, it’s that when it comes to garret wilson vs Nabers specifically, you have way more to lose than you have to gain. That’s my issue. And I really like Nabers, fwiw

[murphysxm]

I do realize that others are afraid of rookies.

I am having a hard time connecting that valuing NFL production being a part of player valuation as the same as being afraid of rookies.

[MacDaddy123]

I do realize that others are afraid of rookies.

I am having a hard time connecting that valuing NFL production being a part of player valuation as the same as being afraid of rookies.

Perhaps I made this statement with my one league in mind. A league where it seems very easy for me to acquire draft picks.
As I mentioned a few of them above, 12 team SF TEP start 11 league.
Hockenson + two mid 1sts for JSN and Kincaid, picks 1.08 + 1.12 for Pickens and Dotson, Gibbs + 1.04 for Bijan, two mid 2nds for Brian Robinson Jr., just seems to me that many just love to give picks away.

My assumption was that they were afraid to use them, perhaps they just hate making decisions, who knows?
All I know is that I have nine 1sts between 2024 and 2025, including 3 top 5 1sts in 24.
Perhaps this year I can hold on to a few of the picks, and not give them away for more 1sts like I did with Bijan, JSN, and Kincaid last year.

Maybe they are not afraid of rookies, why would you guess that they would be so eager to give their draft picks away???

[knotts4372]

I do realize that others are afraid of rookies.

I am having a hard time connecting that valuing NFL production being a part of player valuation as the same as being afraid of rookies.

Perhaps I made this statement with my one league in mind. A league where it seems very easy for me to acquire draft picks.
As I mentioned a few of them above, 12 team SF TEP start 11 league.
Hockenson + two mid 1sts for JSN and Kincaid, picks 1.08 + 1.12 for Pickens and Dotson, Gibbs + 1.04 for Bijan, two mid 2nds for Brian Robinson Jr., just seems to me that many just love to give picks away.

My assumption was that they were afraid to use them, perhaps they just hate making decisions, who knows?
All I know is that I have nine 1sts between 2024 and 2025, including 3 top 5 1sts in 24.
Perhaps this year I can hold on to a few of the picks, and not give them away for more 1sts like I did with Bijan, JSN, and Kincaid last year.

Maybe they are not afraid of rookies, why would you guess that they would be so eager to give their draft picks away???

you're in here seemingly all proud of yourself about those trades when, at least in my ever so humble opinion, you lost at least 2 of those trades. some ppl just still like the already drafted players with high upside that for some reason other owners seem to wanna give up on after 1 or 2 eh seasons in the league.

[BabyChark23]

I am having a hard time connecting that valuing NFL production being a part of player valuation as the same as being afraid of rookies.

Perhaps I made this statement with my one league in mind. A league where it seems very easy for me to acquire draft picks.
As I mentioned a few of them above, 12 team SF TEP start 11 league.
Hockenson + two mid 1sts for JSN and Kincaid, picks 1.08 + 1.12 for Pickens and Dotson, Gibbs + 1.04 for Bijan, two mid 2nds for Brian Robinson Jr., just seems to me that many just love to give picks away.

My assumption was that they were afraid to use them, perhaps they just hate making decisions, who knows?
All I know is that I have nine 1sts between 2024 and 2025, including 3 top 5 1sts in 24.
Perhaps this year I can hold on to a few of the picks, and not give them away for more 1sts like I did with Bijan, JSN, and Kincaid last year.

Maybe they are not afraid of rookies, why would you guess that they would be so eager to give their draft picks away???

you're in here seemingly all proud of yourself about those trades when, at least in my ever so humble opinion, you lost at least 2 of those trades. some ppl just still like the already drafted players with high upside that for some reason other owners seem to wanna give up on after 1 or 2 eh seasons in the league.

Out of curiosity, which two trades did he lose? These all looks like clear wins or atleast break evens to me.

[knotts4372]

Perhaps I made this statement with my one league in mind. A league where it seems very easy for me to acquire draft picks.
As I mentioned a few of them above, 12 team SF TEP start 11 league.
Hockenson + two mid 1sts for JSN and Kincaid, picks 1.08 + 1.12 for Pickens and Dotson, Gibbs + 1.04 for Bijan, two mid 2nds for Brian Robinson Jr., just seems to me that many just love to give picks away.

My assumption was that they were afraid to use them, perhaps they just hate making decisions, who knows?
All I know is that I have nine 1sts between 2024 and 2025, including 3 top 5 1sts in 24.
Perhaps this year I can hold on to a few of the picks, and not give them away for more 1sts like I did with Bijan, JSN, and Kincaid last year.

Maybe they are not afraid of rookies, why would you guess that they would be so eager to give their draft picks away???

you're in here seemingly all proud of yourself about those trades when, at least in my ever so humble opinion, you lost at least 2 of those trades. some ppl just still like the already drafted players with high upside that for some reason other owners seem to wanna give up on after 1 or 2 eh seasons in the league.

Out of curiosity, which two trades did he lose? These all looks like clear wins or atleast break evens to me.

the pickens/dotson trade and the jsn/kincaid trade are both losses imo.

i really thought i was lower than most on pickens but at that price im a buyer especially when i think dotson is a potential big name going forward.

on the other trade i dont trust hockenson at all for dynasty leagues with the injury and i think jsn is a breakout waiting to happen. the fact some are labeling him a bust is wild to me

[MacDaddy123]

you're in here seemingly all proud of yourself about those trades when, at least in my ever so humble opinion, you lost at least 2 of those trades. some ppl just still like the already drafted players with high upside that for some reason other owners seem to wanna give up on after 1 or 2 eh seasons in the league.

Out of curiosity, which two trades did he lose? These all looks like clear wins or atleast break evens to me.

the pickens/dotson trade and the jsn/kincaid trade are both losses imo.

i really thought i was lower than most on pickens but at that price im a buyer especially when i think dotson is a potential big name going forward.

on the other trade i dont trust hockenson at all for dynasty leagues with the injury and i think jsn is a breakout waiting to happen. the fact some are labeling him a bust is wild to me

To be fair, the JSN + Kincaid for Hockenson + two mid 1sts happened before week 1 in the 2023 season. So Hockenson was 100% healthy at time of trade. IMO, that was a huge win for me at the time, even larger now given JSN's WR60 finish in 2023 in PPG.
The 2024 1st is pick 1.06, I have another mid 1st in 2025 in that deal.
But IMO, that was a lopsided W for me, and my league-mates agreed.

JSN is not a breakout ready to happen, that is a pipe dream. His rookie numbers are very disturbing.
I would not label him a bust yet, but history says that he is headed in that direction.
If you look at 1st round WR picks in the NFL Draft the past 10 years, who scored fewer than 9 PPR PPG as rookies, it is a very ugly list, and JSN is currently on it.

Sure, I will not label JSN a bust yet, but you also cannot say that he is a breakout waiting to happen.

You are certainly welcome to your opinion, but I disagree that Pickens + Dotson > than 1.08 + 1.12.
Dotson current value is 2.06, but you are allowed to be higher than consensus on JSN, Dotson, and Pickens.

So, do rookies scare you, are you are just higher on guys who have already played in the NFL, regardless of how poor their performance in the NFL has been?

[knotts4372]

Out of curiosity, which two trades did he lose? These all looks like clear wins or atleast break evens to me.

the pickens/dotson trade and the jsn/kincaid trade are both losses imo.

i really thought i was lower than most on pickens but at that price im a buyer especially when i think dotson is a potential big name going forward.

on the other trade i dont trust hockenson at all for dynasty leagues with the injury and i think jsn is a breakout waiting to happen. the fact some are labeling him a bust is wild to me

To be fair, the JSN + Kincaid for Hockenson + two mid 1sts happened before week 1 in the 2023 season. So Hockenson was 100% healthy at time of trade. IMO, that was a huge win for me at the time, even larger now given JSN's WR60 finish in 2023 in PPG.
The 2024 1st is pick 1.06, I have another mid 1st in 2025 in that deal.
But IMO, that was a lopsided W for me, and my league-mates agreed.

JSN is not a breakout ready to happen, that is a pipe dream. His rookie numbers are very disturbing.
I would not label him a bust yet, but history says that he is headed in that direction.
If you look at 1st round WR picks in the NFL Draft the past 10 years, who scored fewer than 9 PPR PPG as rookies, it is a very ugly list, and JSN is currently on it.

Sure, I will not label JSN a bust yet, but you also cannot say that he is a breakout waiting to happen.

You are certainly welcome to your opinion, but I disagree that Pickens + Dotson > than 1.08 + 1.12.
Dotson current value is 2.06, but you are allowed to be higher than consensus on JSN, Dotson, and Pickens.

So, do rookies scare you, are you are just higher on guys who have already played in the NFL, regardless of how poor their performance in the NFL has been?

the entire "do rookies scare you" spiel just makes you seem ignorant to me. hmmm maybe ignorant isn't the right word but all your comments definitely have some smug attitude feel to them but maybe thats not how others see them just how it seems to me, but i digress.

anyway, you are on a DYNASTY forums site asking if rookies scare ppl. don't that just sound idiotic? you play dynasty leagues the rookies are one of the biggest parts of that. its kinda the point to gauge those rookies values down the line. alot of times we are all wrong but you try to be right as often as possible. i've played in dynasty and devy leagues for over 20 years so i'm definitely not scared of rookies. its more a thing of im put off by the prices alot of ppl put on those rookies. years past you missed on a 1.3 pick sure it sucked but it wasnt the end of the world. now alot of newer guys and leagues in general just flounder because someone goes all in on early picks and when they dont hit they just abandon the team and the league. look at the leauge openings threads and you will see ppl that their teams are so bad because they missed they just said screw itand now the GM of the league is left to fill a team nobody wants.

TL;DR....."are you scared of rookies?" is a silly comment to me and rookie fever is higher in the past few years than any other time in dynasty league history imo.

sorry for the wall of text and also sorry if im wrong with all this. im writinng it drunk at 5 am lol

[MacDaddy123]

the pickens/dotson trade and the jsn/kincaid trade are both losses imo.

i really thought i was lower than most on pickens but at that price im a buyer especially when i think dotson is a potential big name going forward.

on the other trade i dont trust hockenson at all for dynasty leagues with the injury and i think jsn is a breakout waiting to happen. the fact some are labeling him a bust is wild to me

To be fair, the JSN + Kincaid for Hockenson + two mid 1sts happened before week 1 in the 2023 season. So Hockenson was 100% healthy at time of trade. IMO, that was a huge win for me at the time, even larger now given JSN's WR60 finish in 2023 in PPG.
The 2024 1st is pick 1.06, I have another mid 1st in 2025 in that deal.
But IMO, that was a lopsided W for me, and my league-mates agreed.

JSN is not a breakout ready to happen, that is a pipe dream. His rookie numbers are very disturbing.
I would not label him a bust yet, but history says that he is headed in that direction.
If you look at 1st round WR picks in the NFL Draft the past 10 years, who scored fewer than 9 PPR PPG as rookies, it is a very ugly list, and JSN is currently on it.

Sure, I will not label JSN a bust yet, but you also cannot say that he is a breakout waiting to happen.

You are certainly welcome to your opinion, but I disagree that Pickens + Dotson > than 1.08 + 1.12.
Dotson current value is 2.06, but you are allowed to be higher than consensus on JSN, Dotson, and Pickens.

So, do rookies scare you, are you are just higher on guys who have already played in the NFL, regardless of how poor their performance in the NFL has been?

the entire "do rookies scare you" spiel just makes you seem ignorant to me. hmmm maybe ignorant isn't the right word but all your comments definitely have some smug attitude feel to them but maybe thats not how others see them just how it seems to me, but i digress.

anyway, you are on a DYNASTY forums site asking if rookies scare ppl. don't that just sound idiotic? you play dynasty leagues the rookies are one of the biggest parts of that. its kinda the point to gauge those rookies values down the line. alot of times we are all wrong but you try to be right as often as possible. i've played in dynasty and devy leagues for over 20 years so i'm definitely not scared of rookies. its more a thing of im put off by the prices alot of ppl put on those rookies. years past you missed on a 1.3 pick sure it sucked but it wasnt the end of the world. now alot of newer guys and leagues in general just flounder because someone goes all in on early picks and when they dont hit they just abandon the team and the league. look at the leauge openings threads and you will see ppl that their teams are so bad because they missed they just said screw itand now the GM of the league is left to fill a team nobody wants.

TL;DR....."are you scared of rookies?" is a silly comment to me and rookie fever is higher in the past few years than any other time in dynasty league history imo.

sorry for the wall of text and also sorry if im wrong with all this. im writinng it drunk at 5 am lol

Yeah, I don't know what else to say to a dude who thinks Dotson is worth more than a 1st round pick in 12 team SF TEP in 2024.
I mean it's just hard to imagine anyone with a take like that.
Perhaps you are just a hopeful Commanders fan, I don't know how to handle that.

Please tell me why you are soooooooo much higher on Dotson, Pickens, and JSN than the community.

Nevermind, now I see your inexplicable love for certain strange players: "im writinng it drunk at 5 am lol"
That pretty much explains all of your responses. Party on!!