Garrett Wilson or Malik Nabers?

[Anteaters]

My question was completely valid and I’m curious where you slot in these rookies. At a point there is a line, that even if you choose to trade your rookie picks in every scenario, let your own evaluation determine what you consider to be fair.

For me, that line is probably any WR that is a dynasty T14WR and is not old or in an iffy situation.

I'm not taking any rookie WR over Lamb, JJ, Chase, ARSB, Puka, Olave, Aiyuk, Waddle, London, Pittman, Devonta and maybe a couple of others.

After MHJr, I could add another five or six before I'd even consider Nabers over them.

Odunze? I love the kid, but add another three or four to that count.

I'll let other fantasy managers chase cars rolling down the street. I'm happy to take the proven young veteran over the shiny rolling rim, every day.

I get the point you’re making about proven vs potential but just to be clear: if you were on the clock at 1.01 in single QB league, and had the choice to trade the 1.01 straight up for waddle (with no one else willing to pay more), you would prefer taking Waddle over drafting MHJR?

I'm not saying that particular scenario would be an easy decision. But in Waddle we're talking about a guy who finished as overall WR8 and WR13 in two of the last three seasons. I think we'd be happy to draft a rookie WR who did that in 2 of his first 3 seasons.

Also, Waddle is playing with a QB who just led the NFL in yards for 2023. And he's playing with an all-world WR (Hill) who will be slowing down soon, which puts Waddle in position to claim more target share. So, yeah, I would think long and hard before I gave up a sure thing for an unproven rookie MHJr.

What can any reasonable dynasty manager expect out of a rookie for his career? Are you really assuming an unproven rookie is a lock for JJ type numbers? And if he's not JJ or a prime DAdams, how narrow is that gap between JJ/Chase/ARSB/Lamb and Waddle? Too narrow for me to gamble on a rookie slotting in there.

[BabyChark23]

For me, that line is probably any WR that is a dynasty T14WR and is not old or in an iffy situation.

I'm not taking any rookie WR over Lamb, JJ, Chase, ARSB, Puka, Olave, Aiyuk, Waddle, London, Pittman, Devonta and maybe a couple of others.

After MHJr, I could add another five or six before I'd even consider Nabers over them.

Odunze? I love the kid, but add another three or four to that count.

I'll let other fantasy managers chase cars rolling down the street. I'm happy to take the proven young veteran over the shiny rolling rim, every day.

I get the point you’re making about proven vs potential but just to be clear: if you were on the clock at 1.01 in single QB league, and had the choice to trade the 1.01 straight up for waddle (with no one else willing to pay more), you would prefer taking Waddle over drafting MHJR?

I'm not saying that particular scenario would be an easy decision. But in Waddle we're talking about a guy who finished as overall WR8 and WR13 in two of the last three seasons. I think we'd be happy to draft a rookie WR who did that in 2 of his first 3 seasons.

Also, Waddle is playing with a QB who just led the NFL in yards for 2023. And he's playing with an all-world WR (Hill) who will be slowing down soon, which puts Waddle in position to claim more target share. So, yeah, I would think long and hard before I gave up a sure thing for an unproven rookie MHJr.

What can any reasonable dynasty manager expect out of a rookie? Are you really assuming an unproven rookie is a lock for JJ type numbers? And if he's not JJ or a young DAdams, how narrow is that gap between JJ/Chase/ARSB/Lamb and Waddle?

Ok, fair enough. I’d for sure take JJ, Chase, Lamb, ARSB, and Puka over any rookie WR in this class. I’m with you that far. Once we start talking about the other guys on the list, I’d probably roll the dice on the upside that Marvin does turn out to be the next Lamb/ ARSB rather than hold the safe floor. But I suppose it might depend a bit on team situation.

[FiremanEd]

For what it’s worth, I offered Pittman for 1.06 yesterday and was told to GTFO. I thought it perhaps aggressive (but realistically = 1.07), but it sounds like you’d have strongly considered it. Opinions can certainly vary.

SF? Unless I was targeting a QB, I probably would have taken that deal to add Pittman. Let's say it was Odunze/Bowers or Pittman. I'm running away with Pittman like I stole something.

Yes, SF.

I didn’t think it would be accepted, but the aggressive decline was bolder than I expected. Just thought interesting given your comparison of proven vs rookies, noting that position flexibility has added value and doesn’t restrict it to just Pittman vs Nabers/Odunze.

[Anteaters]

For what it’s worth, I offered Pittman for 1.06 yesterday and was told to GTFO. I thought it perhaps aggressive (but realistically = 1.07), but it sounds like you’d have strongly considered it. Opinions can certainly vary.

SF? Unless I was targeting a QB, I probably would have taken that deal to add Pittman. Let's say it was Odunze/Bowers or Pittman. I'm running away with Pittman like I stole something.

Yes, SF.

I didn’t think it would be accepted, but the aggressive decline was bolder than I expected. Just thought interesting given your comparison of proven vs rookies, noting that position flexibility has added value and doesn’t restrict it to just Pittman vs Nabers/Odunze.

Oh, for sure, that's just "my opinion". Not every fantasy manager agrees with me. Not most, and who knows how many.

But for my money, that's my plan. Finding people who disagree (in my leagues) is what makes this hobby fun. They go with their theories, I go with mine, and we see who puts together the better team.

[murphysxm]

Jefferson’s NFL production is rivaled by few in NFL history. Putting JJ and Wilson in the same conversation isn’t comparable. My question was completely valid and I’m curious where you slot in these rookies. At a point there is a line, that even if you choose to trade your rookie picks in every scenario, let your own evaluation determine what you consider to be fair.

I wasn't trying to compare the players as much as highlight how often players over and under perform relative to their "rankings" entering the league. Every roster and format changes my answer as how far is the line, but in a vacuum I am always going to lead to proven over potential. It is conservative at times, hugely superior at times and at worst my team stays the same. Gambling on the "rankings" coming into the draft can give you Treadwell, Reagor and Davis as you trade away a proven WR on your roster. It avoids that risk.

[MacDaddy123]

I have to admit that the results so far are surprising to me.
I realize that I am higher on Nabers than consensus, for me, MHJ and Nabers are the 2 best WR prospects since Ja'Marr Chase in 2021.

So obviously, I have Nabers > GW.

Sure, but how you felt about Wilson as a prospect compared to Nabers is borderline irrelevant. Wilson has been great in the NFL and you have no idea how Nabers will be. What players do in the NFL is generally more important than what they did in college. It doesn’t make sense to take the risk.

We have different definitions of great it seems.

I do not consider WR21 and WR26 finishes as "great"

I usually reserve "great" for a WR1 performance, like Puka, Jefferson, or Chase in their rookie season, or Waddle or DeVonta Smith in their 2nd seasons.

I realize that A's are handed out in colleges like candy now, versus 30+ years ago, but we really should expect more from "great" players than above average performances. Just my opinion.

People acting like Wilson is a bona fide stud like Jefferson, Chase, or Lamb is just mind boggling to me.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

So where do people draw the line on current vs prospect? Where is the line for Nabers? Do you prefer these guys to MHJ?

On the same vein, Nabors is a better prospect than JJ was and JJ is even older, do you prefer Nabers over him? I think it is a philosophy thing. I lean towards the production at this level I have seen, over the potential of the prospect with an unknown landing spot.

Jefferson’s NFL production is rivaled by few in NFL history. Putting JJ and Wilson in the same conversation isn’t comparable.

I like JJ more than Wilson, but you’re really undervaluing Wilson’s rookie year. It was amazing, and he produced at a level rarely seen. Maybe 10 rookies in NFL history produced as much as him, I’d have to double check. But it’s around that number. Kind of odd you don’t value that in combination with his age, athleticism and draft capital. It’s hard to fathom giving up that sure of a thing with elite upside (imo) for a question mark.

I think the line for me is does the player have elite upside. I am an OG Pittman truther, but does he have elite game-changing upside? Probably not. So I could understand valuing the top 3 rookie WRs over Pittman. But I can also understand the inverse as well. If you have multiple dynasty teams, I’d probably recommend having some Pittman but also having some shares of the rookies as well.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I have to admit that the results so far are surprising to me.
I realize that I am higher on Nabers than consensus, for me, MHJ and Nabers are the 2 best WR prospects since Ja'Marr Chase in 2021.

So obviously, I have Nabers > GW.

Sure, but how you felt about Wilson as a prospect compared to Nabers is borderline irrelevant. Wilson has been great in the NFL and you have no idea how Nabers will be. What players do in the NFL is generally more important than what they did in college. It doesn’t make sense to take the risk.

We have different definitions of great it seems.

I do not consider WR21 and WR26 finishes as "great"

I usually reserve "great" for a WR1 performance, like Puka, Jefferson, or Chase in their rookie season, or Waddle or DeVonta Smith in their 2nd seasons.

I realize that A's are handed out in colleges like candy now, versus 30+ years ago, but we really should expect more from "great" players than above average performances. Just my opinion.

People acting like Wilson is a bona fide stud like Jefferson, Chase, or Lamb is just mind boggling to me.

Just don’t be so obtuse. Wilson had a GREAT rookie season, and then his 2nd season was also very good but mired by horrific qb play. You seem more intent on proving yourself right than taking in all the available information and making a good decision. To each their own I guess.

[CGW]

On the same vein, Nabors is a better prospect than JJ was and JJ is even older, do you prefer Nabers over him? I think it is a philosophy thing. I lean towards the production at this level I have seen, over the potential of the prospect with an unknown landing spot.

Jefferson’s NFL production is rivaled by few in NFL history. Putting JJ and Wilson in the same conversation isn’t comparable.

I like JJ more than Wilson, but you’re really undervaluing Wilson’s rookie year. It was amazing, and he produced at a level rarely seen. Maybe 10 rookies in NFL history produced as much as him, I’d have to double check. But it’s around that number. Kind of odd you don’t value that in combination with his age, athleticism and draft capital. It’s hard to fathom giving up that sure of a thing with elite upside (imo) for a question mark.

I think the line for me is does the player have elite upside. I am an OG Pittman truther, but does he have elite game-changing upside? Probably not. So I could understand valuing the top 3 rookie WRs over Pittman. But I can also understand the inverse as well. If you have multiple dynasty teams, I’d probably recommend having some Pittman but also having some shares of the rookies as well.

It's the age we are in. Everyone expects JJ, Chase, Puka stats for rookies, even though it almost never happens. We've been lucky getting three historic seasons in such a short time. Maybe that's a new trend with WRs coming into the league more NFL ready than ever due to all the recent rule changes, but I'm not quite ready to assume that. I also don't think the stats as a whole back that premise up either, just by looking at the rookie WR report from the past few seasons.

Wilson's start to his career has been great. It's really not something you can even argue. (Only 13 rookies EVER have had more yards). His biggest knock is that the Jets have been the absolute worst at passing TDs since the start of the Zach Wilson era. So he's doing what he did on one of the worst passing offenses of the modern era from a TD standpoint. Wonder what would happen if they had even a modest improvement in that area?

[mikedigs]

Nabers is special, and I think his floor would be GW. Give me Nabers for that sky high ceiling.

[tstafford]

Just consulted the Magic Eightball - says "ask again later". I think it's suggesting we see the results of the draft first.

[Anteaters]

If Nabers floor is Garrett Wilson, I wonder what Nabers will go for in Auction League drafts?

In a draft were the amount awarded for ending up with the worst record (1.01) is $1000?
In a draft where the amount awarded for ending up with the worst record (1.01) is $100?

Of course, managers can spend as much as they have and some will have three or four times the amount earned for ending up with the 1.01 record.

How much is MHJr going to cost in auction drafts? Caleb?

[knotts4372]

Nabers is special, and I think his floor would be GW. Give me Nabers for that sky high ceiling.

as said before, saying wilson is nabers' floor is an absolutely ridiculous statement imo. gimme the player that has proven hes damn good even with horrendous qb play. im pretty astonished their are a few ppl on here that i know know their stuff that are for nabers here. i will admit i havent been on here much but when i see some of the old crowd going for nabers its a bit confusing to me. i really thought it would be just a few ppl just trying to throw absurd (to me at least) opinions out there

[FiremanEd]

While it could turn out to be a true outcome, I agree that it’s crazy to call Nabers floor being Garrett Wilson. More than one impressive prospect has floundered because they didn’t have it mentally to continue to push after they ‘made it’. It’s a variable that can’t be overlooked and is a big part of the risk.

I should be clear and say that if I have Wilson, I’m not trading him today for 1.02 or a guesswork pick in SF. I’d hold until I see his destination. I think the same deal is available today as post draft. Depending on landing spot, i will debate it then. Would I trade the pick for Wilson? It would be a tough decision. In SF I’d probably hope he falls depending on format.

In rankings, I’d have them side by side. I prefer Nabers the prospect to Wilson the prospect though. Landing spot favorable and I think I’m taking the leap for the reasons noted earlier. I like the prospect that much.

[MacDaddy123]

Sure, but how you felt about Wilson as a prospect compared to Nabers is borderline irrelevant. Wilson has been great in the NFL and you have no idea how Nabers will be. What players do in the NFL is generally more important than what they did in college. It doesn’t make sense to take the risk.

We have different definitions of great it seems.

I do not consider WR21 and WR26 finishes as "great"

I usually reserve "great" for a WR1 performance, like Puka, Jefferson, or Chase in their rookie season, or Waddle or DeVonta Smith in their 2nd seasons.

I realize that A's are handed out in colleges like candy now, versus 30+ years ago, but we really should expect more from "great" players than above average performances. Just my opinion.

People acting like Wilson is a bona fide stud like Jefferson, Chase, or Lamb is just mind boggling to me.

Just don’t be so obtuse. Wilson had a GREAT rookie season, and then his 2nd season was also very good but mired by horrific qb play. You seem more intent on proving yourself right than taking in all the available information and making a good decision. To each their own I guess.

Again, I will just say that we have different interpretations of the word: GREAT

Interesting, as I don't recall Bijan Robinson receiving so much hate from the community last year pre-draft, but perhaps he did.

Maybe I am too high on rookies, as I had Bijan as dynasty RB1 before the draft in 2023.
I have to admit that he has fallen slightly IMO, probably tied for 1st with Breece Hall on my list now.

Whatever, I get that some need to see NFL production, as most of my league-mates do.
I'm fine taking their draft picks that they are afraid to make.
I just got the 1.08 and 1.12 in 12 team SF TEP for Pickens and Dotson.
Sold Brian Robinson for two mid 2nds, traded away JSN and Kincaid for Hockenson + two mid 1sts (1.06 in 2024).

I have five 1st round picks in 2024, and four 1sts in 2025, and I am not afraid to make those picks, but I do realize that others are afraid of rookies.

There is rookie fever and rookie fear. Yes, they can bust, like JSN and QJ.
But if they hit like Bijan, Gibbs, Stroud, LaPorta, etc., their value will never be cheaper than what you paid in the rookie draft.

Maybe the fact that I play in Devy leagues helps reduce my fear of rookies, since I am drafting high school players in my Devy leagues.
Who knows?