Breaking News: Diggs trades to HOU

[Intoodeep]

Stroud - plus
Nico - negative
Dell - push

Disagree on the receivers. I think this hurts Dell more than it hurts Nico.

Why?

If you have Nico, this is a negative for Dell. If you have Dell, its a negative for Nico.

Truthfully, it's another legitimate mouth to feed both intermediately and deep so its a negative for both.

[wickerkat1212]

Following. I just offered Diggs for 2.03, 2.08, 2.09 in 1 QB. Also offered him for 1.06. We'll see.

[frerichs5]

I don't think you shell out the draft capital the Texans did to just let him go after a year. That wouldn't be smart. They probably extend him because otherwise, they just paid draft picks for nothing.

They get his services this year for his salary, which they can afford, and the Texans get a 6th round pick this year and a 5th next year.

They do give a 2nd next year which will probably be late.

Diggs did fall off some last year but he will help them this year as the Texans will run out 3 solid WR's with their young inexpensive stud QB.

Looks like a solid trade for both teams. I don't see the Texans rushing at all to sign him to an extension. He is on the back side of his career.

This doesn’t really affect anything in your post, but I’ve seen posted a couple times now about the Texans giving up a likely late 2nd.

They traded the Vikings 2nd rounder they had from the trade a week or two ago. It could very well end up early depending on what happens with them for QB.

[Anteaters]

When it comes to the crazy game of predicting what the addition of an aging receiver (with some evidence of not being the stud he once was) being added to a team that already has good receivers, perhaps it would help to look at a few recent similar situations.

Rams 2020 w/o ODB: Kupp 15games, 92rec, 974yds, 3TDs
................................. Woods 16games, 90rec, 936yds, 6TDs
Rams 2021 with ODB: Kupp 17games, 145rec, 1947yds, 16TDs
.................Woods/Jefferson 95rec, 1358yds, 10TDs
......................... ODB 8games, 27rec, 305yds, 5TDs

Titans 2020 w/o Julio: AJBrown 14games, 70rec, 1075yds, 11TDs
................................. CDavis 14games, 65rec, 984yds, 5TDs
Titans 2021 with Julio: AJBrown 13games, 63rec, 869yds, 5TDs
................................. Julio 10games, 31rec, 434yds, 1TD

The biggest takeaway for me is the aging veteran who changes teams doesn't put up the sort of numbers that impacts the value of the very good WR who was already in place.

I'm sure there are more examples, but it's time for me to cook dinner. I'll leave it to someone else to conduct more research ... or just spout off about hunches and gut feelings. I like doing that too.

[SStory93]

Honestly didn’t see Houston as a landing spot for Diggs. Didn’t they just re-up/extend Noah Brown?

Not saying Diggs isn’t better, but just wasn’t a WR room that seemed like it needed an upgrade.

Houston has been talking WR all offseason, they were interested in Mike Evans and believed to be talking about either a WR in the 1st until they traded back. Since then the convo shifted to possibly making a move for Tee Higgins, Aiyuk, and Diggs. The interpretation that was spouted by the insiders is that HOU felt they need a guy on the outside that was legit proven to help out Nico and Tank. I think what is odd, is people saying Diggs will be the #1 in HOU. Based off last year I don't understand that line of thinking. To me as a fan I am hoping Nico shows out again, Tank is still very solid, and Diggs turns out to be not the Diggs of old, but a solid 3rd option.

[mild]

I have a Stroud and Nico Collins. Is this a plus or minus?

Stroud - plus
Nico - negative
Dell - push

Disagree on the receivers. I think this hurts Dell more than it hurts Nico.

Agreed that it hurts Dell the most. Diggs is about to feast in the Slot.

Per PFF:

Texans top 5 wide receivers in 2023 slot percentage

Robert Woods - 56.7%
Noah Brown - 39.4%
Stefon Diggs - 36.1%
Tank Dell - 28.8%
Nico Collins - 20.2%

Stroud feeding an elite route runner in the slot is what made us take JSN so high.

Stroud doesn't rush for 10-15 TD's in a season, either.

I think this is as close to a lateral move as a Diggs owner could have hoped. Target amount: down. Target quality: up.

[bcap88]

He’s getting no where near the 160 plus targets he averaged in Buffalo.

Houston ran the lowest percentage of 11 personnel on first down as well. Don’t see Slowik deviating from that

[Menace2010]

He’s getting no where near the 160 plus targets he averaged in Buffalo.

Houston ran the lowest percentage of 11 personnel on first down as well. Don’t see Slowik deviating from that

Do you think Diggs is coming off the field in 2WR sets?! If so, then yeah his value is in the gutter. I actually see Tank coming off in 2WR sets, which means wheels up for Diggs in the Z feasting on slot CBs and/or CB2s with Nico playing the X.

[mild]

He’s getting no where near the 160 plus targets he averaged in Buffalo.

Houston ran the lowest percentage of 11 personnel on first down as well. Don’t see Slowik deviating from that

Do you think Diggs is coming off the field in 2WR sets?! If so, then yeah his value is in the gutter. I actually see Tank coming off in 2WR sets, which means wheels up for Diggs in the Z feasting on slot CBs and/or CB2s with Nico playing the X.

Ding ding ding.

Houston also led the league in throws deep over the middle in 2023.

I don't see Slowik deviating from that now either.

[Pac_Eddy]

He’s getting no where near the 160 plus targets he averaged in Buffalo.

Houston ran the lowest percentage of 11 personnel on first down as well. Don’t see Slowik deviating from that

Do you think Diggs is coming off the field in 2WR sets?! If so, then yeah his value is in the gutter. I actually see Tank coming off in 2WR sets, which means wheels up for Diggs in the Z feasting on slot CBs and/or CB2s with Nico playing the X.

Ding ding ding.

Houston also led the league in throws deep over the middle in 2023.

I don't see Slowik deviating from that now either.

Got to like that statistic for Diggs owners!

[bcap88]

He’s getting no where near the 160 plus targets he averaged in Buffalo.

Houston ran the lowest percentage of 11 personnel on first down as well. Don’t see Slowik deviating from that

Do you think Diggs is coming off the field in 2WR sets?! If so, then yeah his value is in the gutter. I actually see Tank coming off in 2WR sets, which means wheels up for Diggs in the Z feasting on slot CBs and/or CB2s with Nico playing the X.

Ding ding ding.

Houston also led the league in throws deep over the middle in 2023.

I don't see Slowik deviating from that now either.

Are we just ignoring the fact that Houston had the lowest percentage of 11 personnel on first down and the highest percentage of drives with Run-Run-pass at 51 percent. Not to mention diggs goes from Allen with no other target competition to stroud with 2 other legitimate options.

It is absolutely going to effect diggs and the other two as well

[BabyChark23]

Do you think Diggs is coming off the field in 2WR sets?! If so, then yeah his value is in the gutter. I actually see Tank coming off in 2WR sets, which means wheels up for Diggs in the Z feasting on slot CBs and/or CB2s with Nico playing the X.

Ding ding ding.

Houston also led the league in throws deep over the middle in 2023.

I don't see Slowik deviating from that now either.

Are we just ignoring the fact that Houston had the lowest percentage of 11 personnel on first down and the highest percentage of drives with Run-Run-pass at 51 percent. Not to mention diggs goes from Allen with no other target competition to stroud with 2 other legitimate options.

It is absolutely going to effect diggs and the other two as well

Allen to Stroud is actually a slight upgrade for Diggs, as Stroud averaged about 20 passing yards per game more than Allen last year. I agree about the target competition part though.

[FantasyFreak]

Shakir breakout season incoming.

[bcap88]

Ding ding ding.

Houston also led the league in throws deep over the middle in 2023.

I don't see Slowik deviating from that now either.

Are we just ignoring the fact that Houston had the lowest percentage of 11 personnel on first down and the highest percentage of drives with Run-Run-pass at 51 percent. Not to mention diggs goes from Allen with no other target competition to stroud with 2 other legitimate options.

It is absolutely going to effect diggs and the other two as well

Allen to Stroud is actually a slight upgrade for Diggs, as Stroud averaged about 20 passing yards per game more than Allen last year. I agree about the target competition part though.

That’s what I’m alluding to and it’s not so much the qb play as it is more a competition for targets and a different offensive philosophy. They just recreated the three headed offense that San Francisco has relied on and we all know how frustrating that offense can be for fantasy at times

I would be looking to sell diggs not only because of age but because of the increase in target competition

[mild]

Are we just ignoring the fact that Houston had the lowest percentage of 11 personnel on first down and the highest percentage of drives with Run-Run-pass at 51 percent. Not to mention diggs goes from Allen with no other target competition to stroud with 2 other legitimate options.

It is absolutely going to effect diggs and the other two as well

Allen to Stroud is actually a slight upgrade for Diggs, as Stroud averaged about 20 passing yards per game more than Allen last year. I agree about the target competition part though.

Anyone thinking that Diggs is the odd man out in 2-WR sets... uhhh... why? I think it's going to be Dell, and for what it's worth, that's what the drafting public expects too based on Dells ADP over the last 24 hours on Underdog and KTC. (Down from WR18 to WR24 overnight on KTC)

There's also a chance that Diggs gets to score more TD's. Stroud should improve in his 2nd year, especially with this supporting cast and him having an offseason with Slowik's system... this offense could be legitimately special.

One thing we know: Stroud won't be rushing for 15 TD's like Allen did last year. When Stroud has the ball in his hands, he's doing it with his arm the majority of the time.

Finally, there's an idea being bandied about in here that Diggs is already washed.

So let's play that out for a second - if Diggs *is* actually washed, which situation would benefit him more...

- Remaining in Buffalo as the only veteran WR left, seeing regular shaded coverage / double teams, and running clear out routes on the outside in Joe Brady's short-attack ground-pound scheme that famously shelved him in 2023

-or-

- Playing Power Slot / Z-Flanker for CJ Stroud on an offense that has weapons everywhere and is making clear signs that they intend to be more aggressive in 2024

-if- he actually is physically diminished (arguable but ok)... then if anything... this landing spot could be the trick to extending his career.

Reminder: Stefon Diggs finished as the WR9 in PPR Fantasy last year despite almost completely disappearing after the OC change in Week 10. That... is not a WR who is washed.