Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Brock Bowers.

[ArrylT]

I don’t think Bowers should fall past 1.04 in 1 QB PPR leagues. TEs in the first round are high hit rates.

While I agree that bowers is likely the lock 1.4 or 1.5 in 1 qb. rd 1 TE is not a high hit rate
RD1 TEs since 2010
Dalton kincaid-early but lets say hit
Kyle pitts- meh
Noah Fant-bust
TJ Hock-hit after 5 years before that solid meh
Hayden Hurst-bust
Njoku-bust till year 6
Evan Engram- bust till year 6
OJ Howard bust
Eric Ebron- meh to bust
Tyler Eifert-bust
Jermaine Gresham- meh to bust

you have from these 11, 4 outright busts, one early looking hit, three late breakout hits and the rest were just meh or worse. So unless our saying that you are committing to hold onto a first round pick for 5+ years before really knowing what you put a first rounder into I wouldnt call them a high hit rate, accounting for that were looking at 4/11 hitting

I think you’re misremembering Hockenson pretty badly, so I’m not sure how accurate you are on the rest.

Bust definitions certainly tend to be highly subjective and based more on owner opinion than facts.

Two facts I can give is that

1 - less than 50% of 1st round WRs tend to reach 2 1000 yard seasons (and thats basically a WR3 season)

viewtopic.php?t=157772&start=195

2 - EVERY Tight End since 2000 save OJ Howard has had at least 1 TE1 season. 95% of all TEs drafted in the 1st have produced at least 1 TE1 season and most will reach 2. 6 of 11 TEs drafted in the 1st round of the NFL draft (since 2010) have already had 2 TE1 seasons (based on ppr scoring).

If a WR/RB/QB had 2 WR1 / RB1 / QB1 seasons and was still considered a bust, perhaps that persons definition of bust and their expectations of what production their rookies will get may strongly need re-adjusting.

Most leagues require you start 1 TE excluding flex and te premium options, so knowing that your 1st round TE has a higher probability (than all other draft pedigreed TEs) seems like a very good place to start for safe floor production (and their odds of a high ceiling still beat all otehr pedigrees too).

Not to mention expecting different skill positions take different lengths to develop and be productive, and of course different players develop at different rates. Expecting immediate Top 6 or even top 12 production out of any position (except perhaps RB) seems quite unfair. And even rookie RBs need 200+ touches to get to that potential top 12 season.

Until 2023 many may have considered Jordan Love a bust yet the first year after 3 years of development he had a QB1 season

Speaking of Hockenson & Engram

The total number of 2nd & 3rd round pedigreed TEs (ie drafted since 2017) have have had more Top 12 or top 5 weekly performances than those 2 equals 1

Mark Andrews

Hockenson has finished top 6 3x of the past 4 years
Engram has had 3 top 6 finishes since 2017 (so basically 42%)

Engrams 2017 season is the 6th best ever by a TE Rookie
Pitts 2021 season was the 4th best

Dalton Kincaids was basically 4 points less than Gronkowskis rookie year (and is 11th best ever).

Yet they are still meh to bust? I dont think so.

It really seems to me that Different positions require different expectations and understanding and each position should only be judged on the merits of its position and not in contrast to different positions, especially considering the different roles, speed of development and length of career (the average RB/WR career lasts but 3 years - most 1st round TEs play at least 7-10 years - even OJ Howard played 6).

But based on a criteria of being top 12 at their position - only OJ Howard has busted. If you expect a better result than that considering the length of time a TE develops, the higher risk of injury due to their in game responsibilities and the lower probability of success at all other draft spots (ie 2nd, 3rd so on round TEs) then I do not know what to tell you.

Because less than 50% of all 2nd Round TEs are able to to reach 1 Top 12 season
Less than 25% of all 3rd round TEs reach a top 12 season.
And the odds keep decreasing

But 95% of all 1st round TEs will reach at least 1 TE1 season

Now whether or not an owner can get a TE cheaper 2-3 years from now - that is a league by league specific market discussion and dependant on so many variables - including owner patience, roster size, owner turnover, etc. As is where you need to draft that Round 1 TE.

[hankmurphy]

Excellent post!

Looks like first round TEs are back on the menu, boys!

[FantasyFreak]

Excellent post!

Looks like first round TEs are back on the menu, boys!

LOTR fan, found.

[Ice]

Excellent post!

Looks like first round TEs are back on the menu, boys!

And the better fantasy football players realize the subtle shift in offensive schemes so TE's have been more valuable for a few years now. Defenses have been giving size for speed and offenses are striving to find mismatch opportunities.

Kincaid, this season should be huge with Diggs out of the picture and more reliance on running which will open up plenty of lanes for TE's.

Bowers is rated higher than Kincaid I imagine by the scouts so he should have at least his upside. Scouts favorite comp seems to be Kittle. He has a low bust factor IMO.

This is a strong WR class and weak TE class so his value is even higher at the NFL level and should be for fantasy when a TE is required.

[FantasyFreak]

Of course, it could just be genetic. It happens. That hairline though, at his age, begs for a "random" piss test.