Dynasty League Football Forum

tstafford wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 3:15 am The thing I struggle with on the JSN analysis is that IMHO we got exactly the rookie season we expected from him yet he's dropped in value quite a bit. Something is wrong with our process. It's understandable that he would drop if we got a worse rookie result than expected, but we didn't. And let's not revise history - the consensus POV was very high on JSN. So much (too much) traction off the GW quote and the Rose Bowl numbers.

I think the bolded depends on exactly which fantasy managers you're talking about.

Group A were sold on JSN's metrics and college career and thought he'd be a surefire instant star in the NFL. After being chosen by Seattle, these managers downgraded their pre-NFL draft projections of his rookie season. The common line was "of course he won't produce like other top rookies because of his situation." And when JSN had a Downs like year-end line, it's all about, "no worries man, just what we expected."

Group B managers were less than completely sold on JSN's metrics and college career, but thought there was a chance he could be a good fantasy bet depending on landing spot. After the NFL draft, many in this group spend their draft capital on other players. A few in this group chose JSN anyway and hoped for the best. After his rookie season, a lot of people in this group are saying "We did not expect a flag planting season and JSN did not give us a flag planting rookie season." This group sees his rookie production as an indication that he might not be a future fantasy WR1.

Regarding process being wrong, again there are two ways to look at this. If you originally thought JSN was that guy all along, your process should be to stick with him, unless you get a decent offer (not far off what you paid) for him from another JSN believer.
If you originally thought JSN was a flawed player in a less than ideal situation, your process should be to follow the stats and avoid/sell him.

The biggest example of flawed process, IMO, would be if someone was down on JSN but now feels this is a "buy low" moment. If you thought he was flawed and in a situation that makes it difficult for him to thrive, nothing has changed. If you are one of the doubters, buying low better really be buying low and not a late 1st. Or that's bad process based on where a Group B person started.

I agree with you that, between the end of the college season and fantasy drafts, there was a lot of hype about JSN. At least 65%+ seemed to be true believers at that point. But there were also some of us who saw him as merely a good prospect, not a great one.

Anteaters wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 3:51 am

tstafford wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 3:15 am The thing I struggle with on the JSN analysis is that IMHO we got exactly the rookie season we expected from him yet he's dropped in value quite a bit. Something is wrong with our process. It's understandable that he would drop if we got a worse rookie result than expected, but we didn't. And let's not revise history - the consensus POV was very high on JSN. So much (too much) traction off the GW quote and the Rose Bowl numbers.

I think the bolded depends on exactly which fantasy managers you're talking about.

Group A were sold on JSN's metrics and college career and thought he'd be a surefire instant star in the NFL. After being chosen by Seattle, these managers downgraded their pre-NFL draft projections of his rookie season. The common line was "of course he won't produce like other top rookies because of his situation." And when JSN had a Downs like year-end line, it's all about, "no worries man, just what we expected."

Group B managers were less than completely sold on JSN's metrics and college career, but thought there was a chance he could be a good fantasy bet depending on landing spot. After the NFL draft, many in this group spend their draft capital on other players. A few in this group chose JSN anyway and hoped for the best. After his rookie season, a lot of people in this group are saying "We did not expect a flag planting season and JSN did not give us a flag planting rookie season." This group sees his rookie production as an indication that he might not be a future fantasy WR1.

Regarding process being wrong, again there are two ways to look at this. If you originally thought JSN was that guy all along, your process should be to stick with him, unless you get a decent offer (not far off what you paid) for him from another JSN believer.
If you originally thought JSN was a flawed player in a less than ideal situation, your process should be to follow the stats and avoid/sell him.

The biggest example of flawed process, IMO, would be if someone was down on JSN but now feels this is a "buy low" moment. If you thought he was flawed and in a situation that makes it difficult for him to thrive, nothing has changed. If you are one of the doubters, buying low better really be buying low and not a late 1st. Or that's bad process based on where a Group B person started.

I agree with you that, between the end of the college season and fantasy drafts, there was a lot of hype about JSN. At least 65%+ seemed to be true believers at that point. But there were also some of us who saw him as merely a good prospect, not a great one.

Right. And the bolded part is why I'm now a buyer. I was out in the rookie drafts because he was priced as potentially elite. I see a solid player who produced as expected in his rookie season.

tstafford wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 4:50 am I see a solid player

I agree.

I see JSN as a year-in year-out low-end WR3 with realistic best case possibility (not likelihood) of midWR2 upside starting in 2025, IF his situation is optimal.

I think what hangs me up is I am not confident JSN is going to start posting 1100yd/9TD seasons. Without doing that, there is a good chance he ends up in that sometimes WR3, sometimes FLX, sometimes benched guy.

Diontae Johnson is a good comp. Not specifically for playing styles and definitely not in predraft hype, but production and expectations. After his rookie season, DJ was expected by many to become a fantasy WR1. That never happened and he ended up with only one 1000 yard season, and unsatisfying TD counts. DJ is not a bad player to own, but by the end of 2023 his fantasy value was not really 1st round territory. (The move to CAR has given a little hope of a small rebound, admittedly.)

I think that's JSN in a nutshell. His talent isn't elite and he will require a perfect situation to realize his peak possible production. SEA is not that type of situation for the foreseeable future. And for the foreseeable future, I don't think JSN will come very close to surpassing DJ's past or in-CAR production. Yet on ktc, JSN is WR26 while DJ is WR45; fantasypros has JSN at WR26 while DJ is WR38; and so on.

If JSN's value is still at mid1st and DJ's value is at mid2nd, I am never taking JSN over DJ. Or over Downs for a mid-to-late2nd. Or over JMeyers for a late2nd/early3rd. I simply don't see a future where it is likely JSN ever consistently and/or significantly outproduces those type of WRs.

That's what I mean when I say JSN is overvalued at any 1st and not under consideration for adding to my teams. I'm fine with anyone deciding to hold him over a mid2nd. I think it's a bad idea and bad process for anyone to pay any 1st for JSN if any of those other guys can be acquired for less.

EDIT: Although, I have to wonder if these players all command the same price? Are the prices of completed deals different for these players?

Anteaters wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 5:22 am

tstafford wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 4:50 am I see a solid player

I agree.

I see JSN as a year-in year-out low-end WR3 with realistic best case possibility (not likelihood) of midWR2 upside starting in 2025, IF his situation is optimal.

I think what hangs me up is I am not confident JSN is going to start posting 1100yd/9TD seasons. Without doing that, there is a good chance he ends up in that sometimes WR3, sometimes FLX, sometimes benched guy.

Diontae Johnson is a good comp. Not specifically for playing styles and definitely not in predraft hype, but production and expectations. After his rookie season, DJ was expected by many to become a fantasy WR1. That never happened and he ended up with only one 1000 yard season, and unsatisfying TD counts. DJ is not a bad player to own, but by the end of 2023 his fantasy value was not really 1st round territory. (The move to CAR has given a little hope of a small rebound, admittedly.)

I think that's JSN in a nutshell. His talent isn't elite and he will require a perfect situation to realize his peak possible production. SEA is not that type of situation for the foreseeable future. And for the foreseeable future, I don't think JSN will come very close to surpassing DJ's past or in-CAR production. Yet on ktc, JSN is WR26 while DJ is WR45; fantasypros has JSN at WR26 while DJ is WR38; and so on.

If JSN's value is still at mid1st and DJ's value is at mid2nd, I am never taking JSN over DJ. Or over Downs for a mid-to-late2nd. Or over JMeyers for a late2nd/early3rd. I simply don't see a future where it is likely JSN ever consistently and/or significantly outproduces those type of WRs.

That's what I mean when I say JSN is overvalued at any 1st and not under consideration for adding to my teams. I'm fine with anyone deciding to hold him over a mid2nd. I think it's a bad idea and bad process for anyone to pay any 1st for JSN if any of those other guys can be acquired for less.

EDIT: Although, I have to wonder if these players all command the same price? Are the prices of completed deals different for these players?

For the most part I agree with you. Except that I'm willing to pay the 1.07 in 1QB to get more or less what you describe. Maybe it's just me being risk averse. I'd love to buy Diontae for a 2nd, Downs, McLaurin also. I'm willing to bet that JSN can be a tier above that and therefore pay the price. Generally speaking once the elite prospects are gone, I'm open to dealing picks for fantasy starters - even "mediocre" ones. I suppose line-up requirements come in to play as well.

Never been the biggest JSN guy out there but in 1QB I'd absolutely take him for 1.07 this year.

tstafford wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 3:15 am The thing I struggle with on the JSN analysis is that IMHO we got exactly the rookie season we expected from him yet he's dropped in value quite a bit. Something is wrong with our process. It's understandable that he would drop if we got a worse rookie result than expected, but we didn't. And let's not revise history - the consensus POV was very high on JSN. So much (too much) traction off the GW quote and the Rose Bowl numbers.

I'll disagree with this.
I was in on JSN as the 2023 WR1, and grabbed 2 shares of him.
Luckily sold him in 1 league before week 1, I sold Kincaid + JSN for Hockenson, mid 24 1st and mid 25 1st (12 team SF TEP Start 11).
24 1st is 1.06.

Just traded JSN away in my other league, in a package for Garrett Wilson.

I will say that my expectations were not high for JSN as a rookie, and yet somehow he did not live up to even lowered expectations.
I don't think anyone was expecting low end WR5 production out of JSN (WR60 PPG).
I was expecting WR3 output, would have even accepted WR35, but c'mon....WR60????

I am also amazed at how well he has held his value despite the poor performance.
He is still ranked as WR26 in KTC, even with all of the 2024 rookies on board.
QJ also had a bad rookie season, as 2nd WR off the board, and he is now WR58 on KTC.

Yet some feel that QJ should be lower and JSN should be higher......that's just crazy talk IMO.
I mean what has JSN done to be 30+ slots higher than QJ???

So if you were expecting JSN to be WR60 as a rookie, and feel like his value dropped more than it should have, I don't know what to tell you.

MacDaddy123 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 9:27 pm

tstafford wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 3:15 am The thing I struggle with on the JSN analysis is that IMHO we got exactly the rookie season we expected from him yet he's dropped in value quite a bit. Something is wrong with our process. It's understandable that he would drop if we got a worse rookie result than expected, but we didn't. And let's not revise history - the consensus POV was very high on JSN. So much (too much) traction off the GW quote and the Rose Bowl numbers.

I'll disagree with this.
I was in on JSN as the 2023 WR1, and grabbed 2 shares of him.
Luckily sold him in 1 league before week 1, I sold Kincaid + JSN for Hockenson, mid 24 1st and mid 25 1st (12 team SF TEP Start 11).
24 1st is 1.06.

Just traded JSN away in my other league, in a package for Garrett Wilson.

I will say that my expectations were not high for JSN as a rookie, and yet somehow he did not live up to even lowered expectations.
I don't think anyone was expecting low end WR5 production out of JSN (WR60 PPG).
I was expecting WR3 output, would have even accepted WR35, but c'mon....WR60????

I am also amazed at how well he has held his value despite the poor performance.
He is still ranked as WR26 in KTC, even with all of the 2024 rookies on board.
QJ also had a bad rookie season, as 2nd WR off the board, and he is now WR58 on KTC.

Yet some feel that QJ should be lower and JSN should be higher......that's just crazy talk IMO.
I mean what has JSN done to be 30+ slots higher than QJ???

So if you were expecting JSN to be WR60 as a rookie, and feel like his value dropped more than it should have, I don't know what to tell you.

The WR60 thing feels like a little bit of a red herring. FWIW in my PPR league (with stock settings) he ended up as WR45 in total points (and WR54 in PPG). I think WR45 is REALLY close to what I would have ranked him going in to '23. I can't imagine thinking he was going to be a weekly starter after the landing spot.

I loved what I saw out of him at the end of the year after his wrist got better. I think that is the better view to judge him by so I am taking JSN here.

The.Big.Spank wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 3:44 am I loved what I saw out of him at the end of the year after his wrist got better. I think that is the better view to judge him by so I am taking JSN here.

Not arguing what was expected of him in the year, but I’m curious what was seen at the end of the year that was better than the rest of the year?

His last two games were terrible. Week 5-16 were all fairly similar stat wise. I admittedly didn’t watch much Seahawks, so probably a box score scouting thing. I see one random game around Thanksgiving he got more targets, but didn’t really turn into a much better game. Other than that, not seeing much. Maybe I’m missing something obvious.

I’m actually surprised his value has stayed relatively the same, when you check his trade calc and adp value. I would have thought it’d dip more, especially with the data someone (DD?) provided on rookie wr seasons and future success

i would take 4 guys in this years draft over jsn. a 5th guy its a toss up for me so yeah id def take jsn over 1.7

kinda surprised so many ppl would go for the pick in a 1 qb league

knotts4372 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:38 am i would take 4 guys in this years draft over jsn. a 5th guy its a toss up for me so yeah id def take jsn over 1.7

kinda surprised so many ppl would go for the pick in a 1 qb league

This is kind of where Im stuck. Nobody outside of the top 4 is really intriguing this season. After reading this thread JSN has to be the polarizing fantasy asset lol

I think JSN is a better WR than what you'd likely end up with at 1.07. The draft could shake out funny and I'd be wrong, but I don't imagine guys will be jumping all over the QB's early in 1QB. Though you know your league mates better than I do.

This is going to be different offense than the 2023 version of the Seahawks. And I think for the better. Plus, the team is going to have to rely on their offense, as the defense is not at all to the point where they can carry the team. Grubb will craft an offense to Geno's strengths, and look at what he did with Penix and his crew of WR's at UW.

I believe JSN usurps the #2 WR role in the offense this season, as Lockett looked to be losing steam and is 32 years old. Father Time and and all that... If you believed in JSN last year (I did too) I don't see a good reason to re-roll and hope for a (maybe) better player in 2024.