Josh Downs Price?

[MacDaddy123]

Downs current value in a 12 team SF league is right around 1.12/2.01

[tstafford]

These reasons don't land for me. I'd still much rather have JSN than Downs. And how you measure "better" is important. By yards only? I think that's a pretty limited window.

As for his rookie season, he played worse as the season went on -- despite lesser competition than JSN. Doesn't matter that he had Minshew; so did Pittman, and he played fine. In Downs' first eight games, he never once played fewer than 71% of the snaps. In his last six games, he only played more than 71% of the snaps twice. He might be good for sure! I'm highly doubting just about anyone would (or should) pay a late 1st to find out.

I'm sticking with mid-2nd at best, and I'm also still on board with Downs + late 2nd for late 1st.

I'm with you on JSN vs. Downs. My POV is that JSN is now undervalued whereas last preseason I thought he was overvalued. The drop has gone too far IMO. Had no interest in acquiring him last year, will for sure make some offers come draft time this year.

I can see why folks want to sell Downs. Especially right now. The vector is sort of Diontae Johnson best case. By that I mean a WR who is started most weeks in most leagues but no one is excited to be doing so. The allure of the WRs in this class is such that a lot of managers would prefer to re-roll vs. that profile. I tend to be on the other side - I like having guys like Diontae, McLaurin, etc. (not sexy but useful and fairly cheap). This time of year however is about potential and upside not slotting in your WR5. Thus the tendency to sell Downs.

[moishetreats]

These reasons don't land for me. I'd still much rather have JSN than Downs. And how you measure "better" is important. By yards only? I think that's a pretty limited window.

As for his rookie season, he played worse as the season went on -- despite lesser competition than JSN. Doesn't matter that he had Minshew; so did Pittman, and he played fine. In Downs' first eight games, he never once played fewer than 71% of the snaps. In his last six games, he only played more than 71% of the snaps twice. He might be good for sure! I'm highly doubting just about anyone would (or should) pay a late 1st to find out.

I'm sticking with mid-2nd at best, and I'm also still on board with Downs + late 2nd for late 1st.

I'm with you on JSN vs. Downs. My POV is that JSN is now undervalued whereas last preseason I thought he was overvalued. The drop has gone too far IMO. Had no interest in acquiring him last year, will for sure make some offers come draft time this year.

I can see why folks want to sell Downs. Especially right now. The vector is sort of Diontae Johnson best case. By that I mean a WR who is started most weeks in most leagues but no one is excited to be doing so. The allure of the WRs in this class is such that a lot of managers would prefer to re-roll vs. that profile. I tend to be on the other side - I like having guys like Diontae, McLaurin, etc. (not sexy but useful and fairly cheap). This time of year however is about potential and upside not slotting in your WR5. Thus the tendency to sell Downs.

I love how you framed that!

[BigBawseRoss]

What am I missing here? Why would anyone realistically pay a late 1st for Downs? Honestly, I think a mid-2nd is the best you'd get if you're selling.

he had a better season than jsn and has less comp for touches.

I’m shocked people think Downs is worth anything but a late second

dude put up 750+ in an offense that had a rushing rookie qb for a few weeks and then gardner minshew and he was a first year player. and then the team didnt go get any wrs in free agency

These reasons don't land for me. I'd still much rather have JSN than Downs. And how you measure "better" is important. By yards only? I think that's a pretty limited window.

As for his rookie season, he played worse as the season went on -- despite lesser competition than JSN. Doesn't matter that he had Minshew; so did Pittman, and he played fine. In Downs' first eight games, he never once played fewer than 71% of the snaps. In his last six games, he only played more than 71% of the snaps twice. He might be good for sure! I'm highly doubting just about anyone would (or should) pay a late 1st to find out.

I'm sticking with mid-2nd at best, and I'm also still on board with Downs + late 2nd for late 1st.

they both had same target share and almost identical targets but downs produced more and dropped less (jsn had a 7.5% drop rate compared to 3% for downs). downs was better in most every category you can find (air yard, team target %, adot, etc) aside from ave yards after the catch (6 for jsn vs 5.5 downs) and tds (4 to 2). one dude costs a mid first the other costs a mid to late 2nd according to this thread. i think a late first or early 2nd is totally fine for him idk just my opinion. also quick google search shows Downs hurt his knee week 9 and played thru the injury haha so we have a direct explanation for the usage and downtrend

[moishetreats]

he had a better season than jsn and has less comp for touches.

dude put up 750+ in an offense that had a rushing rookie qb for a few weeks and then gardner minshew and he was a first year player. and then the team didnt go get any wrs in free agency

These reasons don't land for me. I'd still much rather have JSN than Downs. And how you measure "better" is important. By yards only? I think that's a pretty limited window.

As for his rookie season, he played worse as the season went on -- despite lesser competition than JSN. Doesn't matter that he had Minshew; so did Pittman, and he played fine. In Downs' first eight games, he never once played fewer than 71% of the snaps. In his last six games, he only played more than 71% of the snaps twice. He might be good for sure! I'm highly doubting just about anyone would (or should) pay a late 1st to find out.

I'm sticking with mid-2nd at best, and I'm also still on board with Downs + late 2nd for late 1st.

they both had same target share and almost identical targets but downs produced more and dropped less (jsn had a 7.5% drop rate compared to 3% for downs). downs was better in most every category you can find (air yard, team target %, adot, etc) aside from ave yards after the catch (6 for jsn vs 5.5 downs) and tds (4 to 2). one dude costs a mid first the other costs a mid to late 2nd according to this thread. i think a late first or early 2nd is totally fine for him idk just my opinion. also quick google search shows Downs hurt his knee week 9 and played thru the injury haha so we have a direct explanation for the usage and downtrend

Thanks for the additional info, BBR. I appreciate the back-and-forth. I might be a little low on Downs after reading this (still not sure that I'm as high on him as you, though). Great food for thought. Thank you!

[SoftwoodGrampian]

Late 3rd