Target Tank Dell? Value?

[Randomguess]

I have a feeling most all of the Dell supporters are also owners. IMO half a season from a 165lb player is probably not an indication of what his numbers will normally look like year to year. Nico’s on a contract year and there’s no one else. Wouldn’t it be funny if the Texans draft early WR and Dell is the #3 on his own team.. very possible a month from now.

X2 man I really don't get all the love for Dell, especially giving up an early first for him, a 165lb WR2 on his own team?? I hear alot about extrapolating stats which I would be careful on, using a rookie's half season to predict the future seems like a great way to overvalue a player. Don't forget about Schultz as well and yep still have the draft and they tried to make a deal for K. Allen.

I would give the 1.10 in a vacuum, depends on WR's available but I'd be careful on buying Dell at what could be peak value.

What WR in this class do you like more than Tank? I’ve only got MHjr, Nabers, and Maybe Odunze over Tank, which puts him at 1.3/1.4. He’s tied to CJ, who’s balling, and loves him and wanted to draft him and has great chemistry with him. He was injured on a freak play.

I get the concern of extrapolating a half season worth of data, but what else is there to work with? And this could be peak Tank value but I doubt it. They wanted Ka but that seems like it’d dip Nico’s role not Tanks, I think his role is safe, and his value goes up as he gets more experience and success, he’s looked great so far

Do you think the 3.01, 2025 1st (mid) and 2025 3rd is reasonable to offer for Tank? Would you do that? Or save that 2025 1st for a RB?

[PigeonBoys]

I have a feeling most all of the Dell supporters are also owners. IMO half a season from a 165lb player is probably not an indication of what his numbers will normally look like year to year. Nico’s on a contract year and there’s no one else. Wouldn’t it be funny if the Texans draft early WR and Dell is the #3 on his own team.. very possible a month from now.

X2 man I really don't get all the love for Dell, especially giving up an early first for him, a 165lb WR2 on his own team?? I hear alot about extrapolating stats which I would be careful on, using a rookie's half season to predict the future seems like a great way to overvalue a player. Don't forget about Schultz as well and yep still have the draft and they tried to make a deal for K. Allen.

I would give the 1.10 in a vacuum, depends on WR's available but I'd be careful on buying Dell at what could be peak value.

What WR in this class do you like more than Tank? I’ve only got MHjr, Nabers, and Maybe Odunze over Tank, which puts him at 1.3/1.4. He’s tied to CJ, who’s balling, and loves him and wanted to draft him and has great chemistry with him. He was injured on a freak play.

I get the concern of extrapolating a half season worth of data, but what else is there to work with? And this could be peak Tank value but I doubt it. They wanted Ka but that seems like it’d dip Nico’s role not Tanks, I think his role is safe, and his value goes up as he gets more experience and success, he’s looked great so far

Oof in this class? There are about 10 WR's I would take depending on landing spot. I see Dell as a perennial WR2, I do not see him getting into the WR1 echelon ever, I'm not paying up for a WR2 on his own team. I will always say, if Dell becomes a WR1 it would be one of the most extreme outliers in data that we've ever seen. What other 165lb WR has put up ONE WR1 season? I would like to see what WR's have put up a WR1 season with a BMI below 24, I can't think of any off the top of my head but the main point is that, again, if he performs to that extent he's an extreme outlier and you're paying a WR1 price tag for a WR that likely won't perform that way. I generally like to make trades where I acquire a player with upside, not at their peak and there's a likelihood I'm overpaying for a player I don't deem as special. I am a huge probability kind of guy (history tends to tell us a lot about the future) so I would be more than happy to miss out on a guy like Dell because according to the numbers he's not a special prospect physically.

Nico's role is quite solid IMO, they do need another outside WR because ya know they are rolling out Robert Woods and Noah Brown as their WR3/4. If they get some more target competition that obviously eats into everyone's targets, nobody in particular, Stroud spreads the ball out really well. And while he looked great... he looked great for only 8 games. His rookie year reminds me quite a bit of Jahan Dotson's rookie year and we see how that's turning out. For the record I drafted Dotson and sold him after his rookie year because his advanced metrics were putrid despite scoring 7 TD's in an abbreviated rookie year.

[PigeonBoys]

Not to de-rail this thing - but why is all the size talk focused on Tank Dell but we rarely (if ever) hear it about Jordan Addison? Addison is 1 inch taller and only seven or eight pounds heavier. You can't see a thread involving Dell w/o people taking size whereas it almost never comes up with Addison.

Tank Dell is ranked quite a bit higher than Addison, who is also a WR2 on his own team. I'd say Dell and Addison are close together in value but others have a huge difference between the two. Addison is three years younger also.

[SoftwoodGrampian]

Not to de-rail this thing - but why is all the size talk focused on Tank Dell but we rarely (if ever) hear it about Jordan Addison? Addison is 1 inch taller and only seven or eight pounds heavier. You can't see a thread involving Dell w/o people taking size whereas it almost never comes up with Addison.

Tank Dell is ranked quite a bit higher than Addison, who is also a WR2 on his own team. I'd say Dell and Addison are close together in value but others have a huge difference between the two. Addison is three years younger also.

And listed at 10 lbs heavier, which doesn’t sound like a lot but think about it if it were an RB. The guys around 200 scare a lot of ppl but if they’re 210 we’re good to go!

[tstafford]

Not to de-rail this thing - but why is all the size talk focused on Tank Dell but we rarely (if ever) hear it about Jordan Addison? Addison is 1 inch taller and only seven or eight pounds heavier. You can't see a thread involving Dell w/o people taking size whereas it almost never comes up with Addison.

Tank Dell is ranked quite a bit higher than Addison, who is also a WR2 on his own team. I'd say Dell and Addison are close together in value but others have a huge difference between the two. Addison is three years younger also.

Not by DLF. Here are their WR rankings. Obviously the discrepancy is just different set of rankers.

1QB: Dell is #23, Addison #19
SF: Dell is #20, Addison is #15

[SoftwoodGrampian]

Not to de-rail this thing - but why is all the size talk focused on Tank Dell but we rarely (if ever) hear it about Jordan Addison? Addison is 1 inch taller and only seven or eight pounds heavier. You can't see a thread involving Dell w/o people taking size whereas it almost never comes up with Addison.

Tank Dell is ranked quite a bit higher than Addison, who is also a WR2 on his own team. I'd say Dell and Addison are close together in value but others have a huge difference between the two. Addison is three years younger also.

Not by DLF. Here are their WR rankings. Obviously the discrepancy is just different set of rankers.

1QB: Dell is #23, Addison #19
SF: Dell is #20, Addison is #15

The only thing that matters is Mizelle ADP…

#Mizelle

[PigeonBoys]

Not to de-rail this thing - but why is all the size talk focused on Tank Dell but we rarely (if ever) hear it about Jordan Addison? Addison is 1 inch taller and only seven or eight pounds heavier. You can't see a thread involving Dell w/o people taking size whereas it almost never comes up with Addison.

Tank Dell is ranked quite a bit higher than Addison, who is also a WR2 on his own team. I'd say Dell and Addison are close together in value but others have a huge difference between the two. Addison is three years younger also.

Not by DLF. Here are their WR rankings. Obviously the discrepancy is just different set of rankers.

1QB: Dell is #23, Addison #19
SF: Dell is #20, Addison is #15

I actually wholeheartedly agree with that! Dell is rated higher than Addison on KTC, FPros consensus, DynastyNerds, pretty much everywhere they are close. However, there's a discussion out there on a thread about several wanting to take Dell over Puka Nacua and that blew my mind. So if people are taking Dell over Nacua why not significantly over Addison?

I'll say it again I just don't get the love for Dell and I'm fine being in the minority here but I never get a great answer for the pros on Dell. Most of it has to do with extrapolating half season figures which we also did with Dotson, on KTC for example he was up to about where Dell is being valued right now, welp now you're looking at a random 2nd. I see that as the downside of making this trade, if he doesn't live up to those expectations which are incredibly high (1313 yds, 142 tgts, 87 Rec, 15 TD) then his value is going to take a huge hit as he hasn't proved a whole lot yet.

[SoftwoodGrampian]

Tank Dell is ranked quite a bit higher than Addison, who is also a WR2 on his own team. I'd say Dell and Addison are close together in value but others have a huge difference between the two. Addison is three years younger also.

Not by DLF. Here are their WR rankings. Obviously the discrepancy is just different set of rankers.

1QB: Dell is #23, Addison #19
SF: Dell is #20, Addison is #15

I actually wholeheartedly agree with that! Dell is rated higher than Addison on KTC, FPros consensus, DynastyNerds, pretty much everywhere they are close. However, there's a discussion out there on a thread about several wanting to take Dell over Puka Nacua and that blew my mind. So if people are taking Dell over Nacua why not significantly over Addison?

I'll say it again I just don't get the love for Dell and I'm fine being in the minority here but I never get a great answer for the pros on Dell. Most of it has to do with extrapolating half season figures which we also did with Dotson, on KTC for example he was up to about where Dell is being valued right now, welp now you're looking at a random 2nd. I see that as the downside of making this trade, if he doesn't live up to those expectations which are incredibly high (1313 yds, 142 tgts, 87 Rec, 15 TD) then his value is going to take a huge hit as he hasn't proved a whole lot yet.

It sort of reminds me of Elijah Moore and his ‘where are you now’ documentary.

[PigeonBoys]

Not by DLF. Here are their WR rankings. Obviously the discrepancy is just different set of rankers.

1QB: Dell is #23, Addison #19
SF: Dell is #20, Addison is #15

I actually wholeheartedly agree with that! Dell is rated higher than Addison on KTC, FPros consensus, DynastyNerds, pretty much everywhere they are close. However, there's a discussion out there on a thread about several wanting to take Dell over Puka Nacua and that blew my mind. So if people are taking Dell over Nacua why not significantly over Addison?

I'll say it again I just don't get the love for Dell and I'm fine being in the minority here but I never get a great answer for the pros on Dell. Most of it has to do with extrapolating half season figures which we also did with Dotson, on KTC for example he was up to about where Dell is being valued right now, welp now you're looking at a random 2nd. I see that as the downside of making this trade, if he doesn't live up to those expectations which are incredibly high (1313 yds, 142 tgts, 87 Rec, 15 TD) then his value is going to take a huge hit as he hasn't proved a whole lot yet.

It sort of reminds me of Elijah Moore and his ‘where are you now’ documentary.

Another good example I try and trade for guys on the upswing before they hit their peak so I wouldn't be in on Dell at his current price. For example, prior to last season I bought Nico Collins for two late 3rds. Knowing that his QB situation literally couldn't get worse and his advanced metrics were actually pretty good, I decided to take a stab on someone that could live up to being a WR1 or 2 but I got to pay a fraction of the cost.

[Jrblaha]

X2 man I really don't get all the love for Dell, especially giving up an early first for him, a 165lb WR2 on his own team?? I hear alot about extrapolating stats which I would be careful on, using a rookie's half season to predict the future seems like a great way to overvalue a player. Don't forget about Schultz as well and yep still have the draft and they tried to make a deal for K. Allen.

I would give the 1.10 in a vacuum, depends on WR's available but I'd be careful on buying Dell at what could be peak value.

What WR in this class do you like more than Tank? I’ve only got MHjr, Nabers, and Maybe Odunze over Tank, which puts him at 1.3/1.4. He’s tied to CJ, who’s balling, and loves him and wanted to draft him and has great chemistry with him. He was injured on a freak play.

I get the concern of extrapolating a half season worth of data, but what else is there to work with? And this could be peak Tank value but I doubt it. They wanted Ka but that seems like it’d dip Nico’s role not Tanks, I think his role is safe, and his value goes up as he gets more experience and success, he’s looked great so far

Do you think the 3.01, 2025 1st (mid) and 2025 3rd is reasonable to offer for Tank? Would you do that? Or save that 2025 1st for a RB?

I wouldn’t take it for tank, but I think it’s a fair starting point.

[Jrblaha]

X2 man I really don't get all the love for Dell, especially giving up an early first for him, a 165lb WR2 on his own team?? I hear alot about extrapolating stats which I would be careful on, using a rookie's half season to predict the future seems like a great way to overvalue a player. Don't forget about Schultz as well and yep still have the draft and they tried to make a deal for K. Allen.

I would give the 1.10 in a vacuum, depends on WR's available but I'd be careful on buying Dell at what could be peak value.

What WR in this class do you like more than Tank? I’ve only got MHjr, Nabers, and Maybe Odunze over Tank, which puts him at 1.3/1.4. He’s tied to CJ, who’s balling, and loves him and wanted to draft him and has great chemistry with him. He was injured on a freak play.

I get the concern of extrapolating a half season worth of data, but what else is there to work with? And this could be peak Tank value but I doubt it. They wanted Ka but that seems like it’d dip Nico’s role not Tanks, I think his role is safe, and his value goes up as he gets more experience and success, he’s looked great so far

Oof in this class? There are about 10 WR's I would take depending on landing spot. I see Dell as a perennial WR2, I do not see him getting into the WR1 echelon ever, I'm not paying up for a WR2 on his own team. I will always say, if Dell becomes a WR1 it would be one of the most extreme outliers in data that we've ever seen. What other 165lb WR has put up ONE WR1 season? I would like to see what WR's have put up a WR1 season with a BMI below 24, I can't think of any off the top of my head but the main point is that, again, if he performs to that extent he's an extreme outlier and you're paying a WR1 price tag for a WR that likely won't perform that way. I generally like to make trades where I acquire a player with upside, not at their peak and there's a likelihood I'm overpaying for a player I don't deem as special. I am a huge probability kind of guy (history tends to tell us a lot about the future) so I would be more than happy to miss out on a guy like Dell because according to the numbers he's not a special prospect physically.

Nico's role is quite solid IMO, they do need another outside WR because ya know they are rolling out Robert Woods and Noah Brown as their WR3/4. If they get some more target competition that obviously eats into everyone's targets, nobody in particular, Stroud spreads the ball out really well. And while he looked great... he looked great for only 8 games. His rookie year reminds me quite a bit of Jahan Dotson's rookie year and we see how that's turning out. For the record I drafted Dotson and sold him after his rookie year because his advanced metrics were putrid despite scoring 7 TD's in an abbreviated rookie year.

I’d be super curious to see the open score of Dotson and Tank. Tank is getting open at will, and tied to a much better QB who likes him. I think they’re super different, I didn’t believe in Dotson after his rookie year, I do in Tank. I love this WR class but there’s not 10 WRs with higher upside than Tank, or 10 WRs that look to have to a higher probability of success than tank imo. Which is probably why he’s worth more than 2024 1.4 in 1QB via DLF calc.

[SoftwoodGrampian]

What WR in this class do you like more than Tank? I’ve only got MHjr, Nabers, and Maybe Odunze over Tank, which puts him at 1.3/1.4. He’s tied to CJ, who’s balling, and loves him and wanted to draft him and has great chemistry with him. He was injured on a freak play.

I get the concern of extrapolating a half season worth of data, but what else is there to work with? And this could be peak Tank value but I doubt it. They wanted Ka but that seems like it’d dip Nico’s role not Tanks, I think his role is safe, and his value goes up as he gets more experience and success, he’s looked great so far

Oof in this class? There are about 10 WR's I would take depending on landing spot. I see Dell as a perennial WR2, I do not see him getting into the WR1 echelon ever, I'm not paying up for a WR2 on his own team. I will always say, if Dell becomes a WR1 it would be one of the most extreme outliers in data that we've ever seen. What other 165lb WR has put up ONE WR1 season? I would like to see what WR's have put up a WR1 season with a BMI below 24, I can't think of any off the top of my head but the main point is that, again, if he performs to that extent he's an extreme outlier and you're paying a WR1 price tag for a WR that likely won't perform that way. I generally like to make trades where I acquire a player with upside, not at their peak and there's a likelihood I'm overpaying for a player I don't deem as special. I am a huge probability kind of guy (history tends to tell us a lot about the future) so I would be more than happy to miss out on a guy like Dell because according to the numbers he's not a special prospect physically.

Nico's role is quite solid IMO, they do need another outside WR because ya know they are rolling out Robert Woods and Noah Brown as their WR3/4. If they get some more target competition that obviously eats into everyone's targets, nobody in particular, Stroud spreads the ball out really well. And while he looked great... he looked great for only 8 games. His rookie year reminds me quite a bit of Jahan Dotson's rookie year and we see how that's turning out. For the record I drafted Dotson and sold him after his rookie year because his advanced metrics were putrid despite scoring 7 TD's in an abbreviated rookie year.

I’d be super curious to see the open score of Dotson and Tank. Tank is getting open at will, and tied to a much better QB who likes him. I think they’re super different, I didn’t believe in Dotson after his rookie year, I do in Tank. I love this WR class but there’s not 10 WRs with higher upside than Tank, or 10 WRs that look to have to a higher probability of success than tank imo. Which is probably why he’s worth more than 2024 1.4 in 1QB via DLF calc.

Doesn’t need to be 10 WRs of equal or better value, just 10 players.

[Jrblaha]

Oof in this class? There are about 10 WR's I would take depending on landing spot. I see Dell as a perennial WR2, I do not see him getting into the WR1 echelon ever, I'm not paying up for a WR2 on his own team. I will always say, if Dell becomes a WR1 it would be one of the most extreme outliers in data that we've ever seen. What other 165lb WR has put up ONE WR1 season? I would like to see what WR's have put up a WR1 season with a BMI below 24, I can't think of any off the top of my head but the main point is that, again, if he performs to that extent he's an extreme outlier and you're paying a WR1 price tag for a WR that likely won't perform that way. I generally like to make trades where I acquire a player with upside, not at their peak and there's a likelihood I'm overpaying for a player I don't deem as special. I am a huge probability kind of guy (history tends to tell us a lot about the future) so I would be more than happy to miss out on a guy like Dell because according to the numbers he's not a special prospect physically.

Nico's role is quite solid IMO, they do need another outside WR because ya know they are rolling out Robert Woods and Noah Brown as their WR3/4. If they get some more target competition that obviously eats into everyone's targets, nobody in particular, Stroud spreads the ball out really well. And while he looked great... he looked great for only 8 games. His rookie year reminds me quite a bit of Jahan Dotson's rookie year and we see how that's turning out. For the record I drafted Dotson and sold him after his rookie year because his advanced metrics were putrid despite scoring 7 TD's in an abbreviated rookie year.

I’d be super curious to see the open score of Dotson and Tank. Tank is getting open at will, and tied to a much better QB who likes him. I think they’re super different, I didn’t believe in Dotson after his rookie year, I do in Tank. I love this WR class but there’s not 10 WRs with higher upside than Tank, or 10 WRs that look to have to a higher probability of success than tank imo. Which is probably why he’s worth more than 2024 1.4 in 1QB via DLF calc.

Doesn’t need to be 10 WRs of equal or better value, just 10 players.

Agreed, but there’s not 10 players in this draft with that either imo. I used 10 WRs bc that’s what pigeon responded with above. If anyone is selling tank for 1.10 in 1QB I’m buying all day.

[PigeonBoys]

I’d be super curious to see the open score of Dotson and Tank. Tank is getting open at will, and tied to a much better QB who likes him. I think they’re super different, I didn’t believe in Dotson after his rookie year, I do in Tank. I love this WR class but there’s not 10 WRs with higher upside than Tank, or 10 WRs that look to have to a higher probability of success than tank imo. Which is probably why he’s worth more than 2024 1.4 in 1QB via DLF calc.

Doesn’t need to be 10 WRs of equal or better value, just 10 players.

Agreed, but there’s not 10 players in this draft with that either imo. I used 10 WRs bc that’s what pigeon responded with above. If anyone is selling tank for 1.10 in 1QB I’m buying all day

You're right they are different, Dotson has had backup QB's throwing to him and still did well his rookie year. On the other hand, Stroud is the ROY, let's just say that QB play has a lot to do with this. Neither were able to stay health yet were extremely efficient. If you think his TD rate is sustainable you're going to be one of those disappointed come next year.

You know that prior to the draft? Where's your crystal ball? I would wholeheartedly disagree with that sentiment. There are projected to be 10 WR's taken in the first couple rounds. I see a lot of diversity in this years class, lots of size speed combos you look for, there are a lot of WR's that check the boxes. Again your case for Dell is because I feel like it. Which okay, to each their own but I tend to use data to back up my narrative. Again please tell me another WR that weighed in at 165 lbs that put up a WR1 season. I'll wait. That tells me there are a lot of WR's that have the exact upside of Tank Dell, a WR 2 is fairly easy to get without paying up a top 5 pick. I think its insane to trade a top 5 for Dell considering he's not even a WR1 on his own team and you're using half a season to crown him a top 15 WR.

[Jrblaha]

Doesn’t need to be 10 WRs of equal or better value, just 10 players.

Agreed, but there’s not 10 players in this draft with that either imo. I used 10 WRs bc that’s what pigeon responded with above. If anyone is selling tank for 1.10 in 1QB I’m buying all day

You're right they are different, Dotson has had backup QB's throwing to him and still did well his rookie year. On the other hand, Stroud is the ROY, let's just say that QB play has a lot to do with this. Neither were able to stay health yet were extremely efficient. If you think his TD rate is sustainable you're going to be one of those disappointed come next year.

You know that prior to the draft? Where's your crystal ball? I would wholeheartedly disagree with that sentiment. There are projected to be 10 WR's taken in the first couple rounds. I see a lot of diversity in this years class, lots of size speed combos you look for, there are a lot of WR's that check the boxes. Again your case for Dell is because I feel like it. Which okay, to each their own but I tend to use data to back up my narrative. Again please tell me another WR that weighed in at 165 lbs that put up a WR1 season. I'll wait. That tells me there are a lot of WR's that have the exact upside of Tank Dell, a WR 2 is fairly easy to get without paying up a top 5 pick. I think its insane to trade a top 5 for Dell considering he's not even a WR1 on his own team and you're using half a season to crown him a top 15 WR.

I don’t know what other WRs as small as tank have had success, but the league is moving towards smaller and faster WRs having success in general I’d say.

What specific 10 WRs in this class are rerolling Tank for? I’m hoping you don’t put little Worthy in that 10. I’m not even crowning Tank a top 15 WR, but even if he only is a ffb WR2 that’s gonna be much better than many in the top 10 of this class and I love this WR class.