Justin Herbert value now.

[MacDaddy123]

So Ekeler, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen are all gone now. Leaving Herbert with only QJ and Palmer now.

In a 12 team SF TEP PPR Start 11 league, I have rookie picks 1.01, 1.04, 1.06, 1.08, 1.12, 2.05, 2.06, 2.12, 3.01, 3.04, 3.09, 3.12, and 4.01

My QB room is: Herbert, TLaw, Watson, Pickett, Dobbs, Z. Wilson.
In Dynasty Daddy my QB room is ranked as #1, as is my TE room.
My RB room and WR rooms are very weak.

I was planning on working a deal with 1.02 holder, who desperately needs QB, so I could drop down, pick up some capital, and grab MHJ at 1.02.
I told the 1.02 owner, that due to what happened to Herbert today, maybe I need to consider taking Caleb at 1.01.
He replied and said he'd love to have Herbert for his 1.02.

I'm thinking that Herbert > 1.02, but how much?
Is Herbert + 1.12 for 1.02 + 1.07 worth it?
That would give me 6 top 8 picks.

Before this I was looking to grab MHJ at 1.02, Nabers at 1.04, Odunze at 1.06, Brian Thomas Jr at 1.08, and Troy Franklin at 1.12.
We can start up to 6 WR's with 3 WR slots and 3 Flex slots.

Thoughts are welcome.
My current top 3 WR's are: London, Jameson, Burks
If he balks and says this is too much for Herbert now, hold, or sell for less?

[Jrblaha]

Your offer seems reasonable to me

[TheTroll]

So Ekeler, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen are all gone now. Leaving Herbert with only QJ and Palmer now.

In a 12 team SF TEP PPR Start 11 league, I have rookie picks 1.01, 1.04, 1.06, 1.08, 1.12, 2.05, 2.06, 2.12, 3.01, 3.04, 3.09, 3.12, and 4.01

My QB room is: Herbert, TLaw, Watson, Pickett, Dobbs, Z. Wilson.
In Dynasty Daddy my QB room is ranked as #1, as is my TE room.
My RB room and WR rooms are very weak.

I was planning on working a deal with 1.02 holder, who desperately needs QB, so I could drop down, pick up some capital, and grab MHJ at 1.02.
I told the 1.02 owner, that due to what happened to Herbert today, maybe I need to consider taking Caleb at 1.01.
He replied and said he'd love to have Herbert for his 1.02.

I'm thinking that Herbert > 1.02, but how much?
Is Herbert + 1.12 for 1.02 + 1.07 worth it?
That would give me 6 top 8 picks.

Before this I was looking to grab MHJ at 1.02, Nabers at 1.04, Odunze at 1.06, Brian Thomas Jr at 1.08, and Troy Franklin at 1.12.
We can start up to 6 WR's with 3 WR slots and 3 Flex slots.

Thoughts are welcome.
My current top 3 WR's are: London, Jameson, Burks
If he balks and says this is too much for Herbert now, hold, or sell for less?

dont forget Everett gone now too.

[Peener]

I'd hold Herbert anyway, and I think you should definitely be holding him at least until after the draft to see what the Chargers do with their pick. If they go with Nabers/Odunze it could be a nice combo. Also, Justin Herbert is gonna be playing for a long time, I wouldn't risk gambling on an unknown QB just cause Herbert might have a down year.

[TheTroll]

I'd hold Herbert anyway, and I think you should definitely be holding him at least until after the draft to see what the Chargers do with their pick. If they go with Nabers/Odunze it could be a nice combo. Also, Justin Herbert is gonna be playing for a long time, I wouldn't risk gambling on an unknown QB just cause Herbert might have a down year.

for sure, i never suggested to cut Herbert loose. This would be selling low. Transcendent QB's are good no matter the talent around him. We cannot panic with Herbert right now.

[tstafford]

I'd hold Herbert anyway, and I think you should definitely be holding him at least until after the draft to see what the Chargers do with their pick. If they go with Nabers/Odunze it could be a nice combo. Also, Justin Herbert is gonna be playing for a long time, I wouldn't risk gambling on an unknown QB just cause Herbert might have a down year.

for sure, i never suggested to cut Herbert loose. This would be selling low. Transcendent QB's are good no matter the talent around him. We cannot panic with Herbert right now.

For me it's not a panic thing. It's a limited upside thing. I have Herbert as a borderline QB1 for '24. That's a disappointment from when he was knocking on the door of the top-5.

[Stone2987]

I wouldn’t even assume they’ll take a receiver in the first. Harbaugh wants to run an old school scheme. They let the premiere pass catching back in the nfl go and signed a bruising back that doesn’t catch passes and a run blocking tight end. His plan has been clear from day one but people didn’t want to believe it. It doesn’t mean Herbert is worthless, but it’ll be harder for him to reach the same heights in this offense.

[Blumpy]

I suspect Harbs and Roman build the run game this year and sacrifice the pass game. Next year they will let Herbert throw a few forward passes (kidding). I think this year will be blah but then the pass game will take off next year after Harbs cans Roman for his stoneage offense that can only get the team so far

If you don't want to sit through a down year then trade. If you have patience I bet Herbert does well in a year or two again. Feels like a buy low opportunity for Herbert incoming this year after Gus Bus and whatever RB they draft get 300 carries each this year.

[MacDaddy123]

Interesting that the chat seems to be leaning heavily toward Herbie side, but the voting slightly leans away from Herbie side.

What if I keep the 1.12, and throw in the 2.05 with Herbie instead?
SO:

Herbert + 2.05 for Caleb Williams + 1.07

[TheTroll]

Interesting that the chat seems to be leaning heavily toward Herbie side, but the voting slightly leans away from Herbie side.

What if I keep the 1.12, and throw in the 2.05 with Herbie instead?
SO:

Herbert + 2.05 for Caleb Williams + 1.07

the voters want to be the silent majority.

[CGW]

Interesting that the chat seems to be leaning heavily toward Herbie side, but the voting slightly leans away from Herbie side.

What if I keep the 1.12, and throw in the 2.05 with Herbie instead?
SO:

Herbert + 2.05 for Caleb Williams + 1.07

I think it's heavily in favor of the Herbert side as is. With this adjustment, I think it's more even. Personally, I'd still want to hang onto Herbert for the next decade.

[Stone2987]

I didn’t even look at the trade when I commented.
Even though I’m a little down on Herbert, I prefer him and 1.12. With the 2.05 I’d say it’s a coin flip depending on how you feel about Caleb.

[MacDaddy123]

Interesting that the chat seems to be leaning heavily toward Herbie side, but the voting slightly leans away from Herbie side.

What if I keep the 1.12, and throw in the 2.05 with Herbie instead?
SO:

Herbert + 2.05 for Caleb Williams + 1.07

I think it's heavily in favor of the Herbert side as is. With this adjustment, I think it's more even. Personally, I'd still want to hang onto Herbert for the next decade.

So Herbert + 2.05 for 1.02 and 1.07 leans even heavier to the Herbert side than Herbert + 1.12 for 1.02 + 1.07 does???

I'm not sure how your math works, or possibly you just are a Caleb hater?

I mean in my math, 2.05 is less valuable than 1.12, so it should lean further away from the Herbert side.

[CGW]

Interesting that the chat seems to be leaning heavily toward Herbie side, but the voting slightly leans away from Herbie side.

What if I keep the 1.12, and throw in the 2.05 with Herbie instead?
SO:

Herbert + 2.05 for Caleb Williams + 1.07

I think it's heavily in favor of the Herbert side as is. With this adjustment, I think it's more even. Personally, I'd still want to hang onto Herbert for the next decade.

So Herbert + 2.05 for 1.02 and 1.07 leans even heavier to the Herbert side than Herbert + 1.12 for 1.02 + 1.07 does???

I'm not sure how your math works, or possibly you just are a Caleb hater?

I mean in my math, 2.05 is less valuable than 1.12, so it should lean further away from the Herbert side.

Let me try another way. Original trade bad. Counter offer less bad.

[MacDaddy123]

I didn’t even look at the trade when I commented.
Even though I’m a little down on Herbert, I prefer him and 1.12. With the 2.05 I’d say it’s a coin flip depending on how you feel about Caleb.

I am not a huge Caleb believer.
That said, I traded for Herbert last season, giving up Kyler, Levis, and Charbonnet.
With all the changes in the Chargers organization, I now regret that trade.

I think Jim Harbaugh in real life will help the Chargers become a better team, however, I feel like he and Greg Roman will hurt Herbert's value.
Herbert's value is based on volume, as he does not do much with his legs.
Being a top 5 volume passing offense is why Herbert has had success in fantasy.

Now, bring in a coaching staff that is more run heavy oriented, and Herbert's passing volume will drop, I can't see how that doesn't hurt Herbert's value.
Sure, one can hold Herbert and wait for the Harbaugh era to be over, but that doesn't seem like a great plan either.

I think getting rid of Ekeler, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Gerald Everett, has only made it clearer that Harbaugh intends to cut down on passing and improve the running attack.
I would not be surprised to see the Chargers spend a Day 2 pick on Blake Corum, which obviously would not help Herbert's value at all.