2024 Combine

[wickerkat1212]

Will add to my above, we shouldn't dismiss everyone that isn't bolded quite yet. In 2021 and 2022 Nico would have been classified in the other bucket. I still hold out hope for a few of the guys drafted in 2022 and 2023 that haven't hit yet.

Right. I think there are a few players who aren't hits that could still pan out as well, though it's becoming increasingly unlikely.

Ultimately, we can use all the stats and watch all the game tape we want. But, if you merely did the following:

1. Draft players with R1 pedigree.
2. Draft players with Day 2 pedigree.
3. Invest very little into players with Day 3 pedigree.

You'd probably do better than any other route. Draft capital is the most essential component there is. It's very unlikely that any of us can outsmart the NFL over a long sample size by disregarding it.

Truth. I just have to figure out where to draw the line.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Will add to my above, we shouldn't dismiss everyone that isn't bolded quite yet. In 2021 and 2022 Nico would have been classified in the other bucket. I still hold out hope for a few of the guys drafted in 2022 and 2023 that haven't hit yet.

Right. I think there are a few players who aren't hits that could still pan out as well, though it's becoming increasingly unlikely.

Ultimately, we can use all the stats and watch all the game tape we want. But, if you merely did the following:

1. Draft players with R1 pedigree.
2. Draft players with Day 2 pedigree.
3. Invest very little into players with Day 3 pedigree.

You'd probably do better than any other route. Draft capital is the most essential component there is. It's very unlikely that any of us can outsmart the NFL over a long sample size by disregarding it.

Truth. I just have to figure out where to draw the line.

Hit rate really drops off after day 2. And the same is true for RBs.

For WRs


1st Round

Overall
29% Stud
14% Good
43% Good or Better
57% Bust

Top 10
[33 Total] (12 Stud) (5 Good) (16 Bust)
36% Stud
15% Good
52% Good or Better
48% Bust

11-32
[51 total] (12 Stud) (7 Good) (32 Bust)
24% Stud
14% Good
37% Good or Better
63% Bust


2nd Round
[88 Total] (12 Stud) (11 Good) (65 Bust)
14% Stud
13% Good
26% Good or Better
74% Bust


3rd Round
[93 Total] (11 Stud) (3 Good) (79 Bust)
12% Stud
3% Good
15% Good or Better
85% Bust


4th Round
[88 Total] (2 Stud) (3 Good) (83 Bust)
2% Stud
3% Good
6% Good or Better
94% Bust


5th Round
[84 Total] (2 Stud) (1 Good) (81 Bust)
2% Stud
1% Good
4% Good or Better
96% Bust


6th Round
[103 Total] (1 Stud) (2 Good) (100 Bust)
1% Stud
2% Good
3% Good or Better
97% Bust


7th Round
[128 Total] (4 Stud) (1 Good) (123 Bust)
3% Stud
1% Good
4% Good or Better
96% Bust

____________________________________
Rookie RB Classes of 2015-2021
My Model = Players in Tier 1 of my model
Other = Players not in Tier 1 of my model
Random = If you were to select a player at random (so disregarding my model)
1K Yard Season = 1k rushing yards @ 62.5+ ypc
____________________________________


Round 1 RB's

At least 1+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 80% Hit Rate
Other - 60% Hit Rate
Random - 70% Hit Rate

At least 2+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 60% Hit Rate
Other - 20% Hit Rate
Random - 40% Hit Rate

At least 3+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 40% Hit Rate
Other - 20% Hit Rate
Random - 30% Hit Rate



Round 2 RB's

At least 1+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 57% Hit Rate
Other - 38% Hit Rate
Random - 46% Hit Rate

At least 2+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 57% Hit Rate
Other - 13% Hit Rate
Random - 33% Hit Rate

At least 3+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 43% Hit Rate
Other - 13% Hit Rate
Random - 27% Hit Rate


Round 3 RB's

At least 1+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 50% Hit Rate
Other - 21% Hit Rate
Random - 24% Hit Rate

At least 2+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 0% Hit Rate
Other - 5% Hit Rate
Random - 5% Hit Rate

At least 3+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 0% Hit Rate
Other - 0% Hit Rate
Random - 0% Hit Rate

[YouMightDieTryin]

Doesn't Mizz's mock data kind of give that information?

[wickerkat1212]

This is awesome. Do we have hit rates on QB and/or TEs?

[Cameron Giles]

This is awesome. Do we have hit rates on QB and/or TEs?

Drafting a random 1st Round TE in the last 8 years:

2023: Kincaid
2022: N/A
2021: Pitts
2020: N/A
2019: Hockenson, Fant
2018: Hurst
2017: Howard, Engram, Njoku

Hit: 5/8 (62%)

Drafting a random Day 2 TE in the last 8 years:

2023: LaPorta, Musgrave, Mayer, Schoonmaker, Strange, Kraft, Washington, Latu
2022: McBride, Woods, Dulcich, Ruckert
2021: Freiermuth, Long, Tremble, McKitty
2020: Kmet, Asiasi, Deguara, Keene, Trautman
2019: Smith, Sample, Oliver, Sternberger, Warring, Knox
2018: Gesicki, Goedert, Andrews, Akins
2017: Everett, Shaheen, Smith

Hit: 6/34 (18%)

Drafting a random Day 3 TE in the last 8 years. Hits only:

2023: N/A (0/6)
2022: Ferguson (1/15)
2021: N/A (0/6)
2020: N/A (0/7)
2019: N/A (0/8)
2018: Schultz (1/10)
2017: Kittle (1/8)

Hit: 5/54 (5%)

I'm sure DD has the hit rate for QBs. If I'm remembering correctly, 1st round QBs have a near 50/50 hit. Everything else is bad.

Overall, draft capital remains king. You could probably outsmart the NFL here and there by disregarding draft capital, but doing it consistently for a long time will skew heavily towards the NFL and draft capital. They are pretty good at figuring out which players can't play.

[wickerkat1212]

Awesome, thanks!

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I'm sure DD has the hit rate for QBs. If I'm remembering correctly, 1st round QBs have a near 50/50 hit. Everything else is bad.

You may be referring to this. I don't think I did round 2 or round 3 (maybe a long time ago i did), but i imagine the the hit rate is worse than 50%. And yes, you can feel free to change Love to a hit.

Kinda got me wondering so i did a little digging. Past 25 years of 1st round QBs. I did the best I could categorizing hits and misses.

Age 21-22 group roughly the same in terms of upside and hit rate.

Age 23 group, the hits weren't even that great. Only Burrow seems to have a big upside in terms of stat padding.

Age 24 group

___________________________
Draft Age of 23-24 hit rate: 25%
Draft Age of 21-22 hit rate: 50%
___________________________


Draft Age of 24

Hits (1)
Tannehill

Misses (3)
Pennington
Akili Smith
Jim Druckenmiller

Hit Rate : 25%
Bust Rate: 75%



Draft Age of 23

Hits (6)
Joe Burrow
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Jay Cutler
Eli Manning
Carson Palmer

Misses (16)
Baker Mayfield
Mitchell Trubisky
Carson Wentz
EJ Manuel
Jake Locker
Christian Ponder
Tim Tebow
Vince Young
Matt Leinart
Jason Campbell
JP Losman
Byron Leftwich
Rex Grossman
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Patrick Rmasey


Hit Rate : 27%
Bust Rate: 73%



Draft Age of 22

Hits (12)
Justin Herbert
Josh Allen
Andrew Luck
Cam Newton
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
Donovan McNabb
Daunte Culpepper
Peyton Manning
Steve McNair
Kyler Murray
Tua Tagovailoa

Misses (12)
Dwayne Haskins
Paxton Lynch
Blake Bortles
Robert Griffin III
Sam Bradford
Mark Sanchez
JaMarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Kyle Boller
Tim Couch
Cade McNown
Ryan Leaf

Unsure
Daniel Jones
Kerry Collins


Hit Rate : 50%
Bust Rate: 50%



Draft Age of 21

Hits (8)
Lamar Jackson
Patrick Mahomes
Deshaun Watson
Matthew Stafford
Alex Smith
Aaron Rodgers
Michael Vick
Jared Goff

Misses (9)
Jordan Love
Sam Darnold
Josh Rosen
Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariota
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater
Blaine Gabbert
Josh Freeman


Hit Rate: 47%
Bust Rate: 53%

[Dynasty DeLorean]

...doing it consistently for a long time will skew heavily towards the NFL and draft capital. They are pretty good at figuring out which players can't play.

Not only that, by drafting a player high there is an organizational incentive to have that player succeed. Everyone looks bad when a highly drafted player face plants. So yes, they are likely better at spotting talent, but they're also going to give highly drafted players more room to fail than lower drafted players.

[Cameron Giles]

Yep, that's what I was looking for. 1st round QBs who hit the NFL at 21-22 are ideally what you want. Good sign for Williams, Maye and McCarthy (somehow still 20 years old).

Older QBs are a landmine, and this draft is filled with them (Penix, Daniels, Hartman, Nix, Milton). One of them may hit just due to the volume of the group, but if they don't go 1st round, then it's going to be an uphill climb.

Drafting a random 1st Round QB the last 8 years:

2023: Young, Stroud, Richardson
2022: Pickett
2021: Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields, Jones
2020: Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love
2019: Murray, Jones, Haskins
2018: Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Jackson
2017: Trubisky, Watson, Mahomes
2016: Goff, Wentz, Lynch

Hit: 14/27 (52%)

Drafting a random Day 2 QB the last 8 years:

2023: Levis, Hooker
2022: Ridder, Willis, Corral
2021: Trask, Mond, Mills
2020: Hurts
2019: Lock, Grier
2018: Rudolph
2017: Kizer, Webb, Beathard
2016: Hackenburg, Brissett, Kessler

Hit: 1/18 (5%)

Drafting a random Day 3 QB the last 8 years. Hits only:

2023: N/A (0/9)
2022: Purdy (1/5)
2021: N/A (0/2)
2020: N/A (0/8)
2019: N/A (0/6) (Minshew is maybe a hit?)
2018: N/A (0/7)
2017: N/A (0/4)
2016: Prescott (1/9)

Hit: 2/50 (4%)

Obvious takeaway: If the QB you like doesn't go 1st round, they're most likely a future clipboard holder, or they'll be in the UFL in a few years. They also won't get enough chances to be a long-term starter, because front offices need to save their job with a proven starter or resetting the clock with a 1st round rookie.

[Shcritters]

These analyses really confirm a strategy that I've had for the past 10 years (although not necessarily intentionally based on data) - and that is 'do whatever it takes to get early picks, even if it means giving up the rest of that year's draft picks'. This isn't rocket science, the question is how to do it effectively.

For a contending team I almost always try to trade my future 1st along with other things to move up into the first half of this or next year's draft because in those places the hit rates area way higher. Said differently, I'd rather have the 1.06 in any given year than the 2.03+2.04+2.05 (which KTC says is significantly more valuable). A few really good shots on the rookie draft target are better than a lot of mediocre shots.

This may make it less fun because you're not constantly churning and burning trades, but 1-2 solid trades every year is probably more effective than 20-30 small deals.

[Jigga94]

Yep, that's what I was looking for. 1st round QBs who hit the NFL at 21-22 are ideally what you want. Good sign for Williams, Maye and McCarthy (somehow still 20 years old).

Older QBs are a landmine, and this draft is filled with them (Penix, Daniels, Hartman, Nix, Milton). One of them may hit just due to the volume of the group, but if they don't go 1st round, then it's going to be an uphill climb.

Drafting a random 1st Round QB the last 8 years:

2023: Young, Stroud, Richardson
2022: Pickett
2021: Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields, Jones
2020: Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love
2019: Murray, Jones, Haskins
2018: Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Jackson
2017: Trubisky, Watson, Mahomes
2016: Goff, Wentz, Lynch

Hit: 14/27 (52%)

Drafting a random Day 2 QB the last 8 years:

2023: Levis, Hooker
2022: Ridder, Willis, Corral
2021: Trask, Mond, Mills
2020: Hurts
2019: Lock, Grier
2018: Rudolph
2017: Kizer, Webb, Beathard
2016: Hackenburg, Brissett, Kessler

Hit: 1/18 (5%)

Drafting a random Day 3 QB the last 8 years. Hits only:

2023: N/A (0/9)
2022: Purdy (1/5)
2021: N/A (0/2)
2020: N/A (0/8)
2019: N/A (0/6) (Minshew is maybe a hit?)
2018: N/A (0/7)
2017: N/A (0/4)
2016: Prescott (1/9)

Hit: 2/50 (4%)

Obvious takeaway: If the QB you like doesn't go 1st round, they're most likely a future clipboard holder, or they'll be in the UFL in a few years. They also won't get enough chances to be a long-term starter, because front offices need to save their job with a proven starter or resetting the clock with a 1st round rookie.

Great post. Just to add...
Bagent and Duggan were the only age 21/22 QBs (aside from Young/Stroud/Richardson)
Purdy and Howell were the only QBs 22 or younger at draft time in 2022.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Per Dynasty Nerds Podcast, 2015-2021 sample size

1st round QBs - 44% hit a top 12 season, 72% hit a top 24 season
[Slight difference between top 10 nfl draft picks and 11-32 nfl draft picks, top 10 being better, but not by much]

2nd round QBs - 20% hit a top 12 season, 40% hit a top 24 season

3rd round - Somewhere between 0-20%

[tstafford]

Per Dynasty Nerds Podcast, 2015-2021 sample size

1st round QBs - 44% hit a top 12 season, 72% hit a top 24 season
[Slight difference between top 10 nfl draft picks and 11-32 nfl draft picks, top 10 being better, but not by much]

2nd round QBs - 20% hit a top 12 season, 40% hit a top 24 season

3rd round - Somewhere between 0-20%

Great stuff.

Confirms what we intuitively know - first round QB is a safe bet in SF and JJM should go ~1.08 assuming he gets the predicted draft capital.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Said differently, I'd rather have the 1.06 in any given year than the 2.03+2.04+2.05 (which KTC says is significantly more valuable). A few really good shots on the rookie draft target are better than a lot of mediocre shots.

Hmm, yes and no. Depends on the draft class obviously. But also, there are ways to IMPROVE upon draft capital hit rates. I subscribed to the "trade up for better hit rate" theory in the past and it hurt me more than it helped me.

If my math is correct, 3 tries to get at least 1 hit at 20% odds is 48% chance of success (48% chance of getting at least 1 hit). So you’re getting same or better success rate with multiple chances, and there’s always the possibility you get more than 1 hit. If you trade 3 picks for 1 then the most amount of hits you can get is 1. That’s why multiple picks is usually better, even if the probability for each player is lower. The probability for 2+ hits from 3 tries is only 10%, but that’s 10% higher than the 0% chance you get from only 1 try.

2 tries at 20% hit rate is only 36% chance of at least 1 hit. So in that case, trading up for 40%+ hit rate is probably a better idea.

[joshnco]

I'm sure DD has the hit rate for QBs. If I'm remembering correctly, 1st round QBs have a near 50/50 hit. Everything else is bad.

You may be referring to this. I don't think I did round 2 or round 3 (maybe a long time ago i did), but i imagine the the hit rate is worse than 50%. And yes, you can feel free to change Love to a hit.

Kinda got me wondering so i did a little digging. Past 25 years of 1st round QBs. I did the best I could categorizing hits and misses.

Age 21-22 group roughly the same in terms of upside and hit rate.

Age 23 group, the hits weren't even that great. Only Burrow seems to have a big upside in terms of stat padding.

Age 24 group

___________________________
Draft Age of 23-24 hit rate: 25%
Draft Age of 21-22 hit rate: 50%
___________________________


Draft Age of 24

Hits (1)
Tannehill

Misses (3)
Pennington
Akili Smith
Jim Druckenmiller

Hit Rate : 25%
Bust Rate: 75%



Draft Age of 23

Hits (6)
Joe Burrow
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Jay Cutler
Eli Manning
Carson Palmer

Misses (16)
Baker Mayfield
Mitchell Trubisky
Carson Wentz
EJ Manuel
Jake Locker
Christian Ponder
Tim Tebow
Vince Young
Matt Leinart
Jason Campbell
JP Losman
Byron Leftwich
Rex Grossman
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Patrick Rmasey


Hit Rate : 27%
Bust Rate: 73%



Draft Age of 22

Hits (12)
Justin Herbert
Josh Allen
Andrew Luck
Cam Newton
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
Donovan McNabb
Daunte Culpepper
Peyton Manning
Steve McNair
Kyler Murray
Tua Tagovailoa

Misses (12)
Dwayne Haskins
Paxton Lynch
Blake Bortles
Robert Griffin III
Sam Bradford
Mark Sanchez
JaMarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Kyle Boller
Tim Couch
Cade McNown
Ryan Leaf

Unsure
Daniel Jones
Kerry Collins


Hit Rate : 50%
Bust Rate: 50%



Draft Age of 21

Hits (8)
Lamar Jackson
Patrick Mahomes
Deshaun Watson
Matthew Stafford
Alex Smith
Aaron Rodgers
Michael Vick
Jared Goff

Misses (9)
Jordan Love
Sam Darnold
Josh Rosen
Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariota
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater
Blaine Gabbert
Josh Freeman


Hit Rate: 47%
Bust Rate: 53%

Great info thank you!