WR size consideration (FUN for the 1.1!)

[Valhalla]

Just having fun here.
6'4" 227lbs gives us a BMI of 27.6, falling right into the middle of that statistical cluster of the type of stud we expect Marvin to become.
Let's say these guys all play at ~15lbs lighter in season. That brings them down to an in-season BMI average of 25.8. That's MUCH closer to 25 that Marvin is speculated to be! Why have I been worrying about someone weighing in at BMI 25 this whole time? I mean, it's not like we should then assume he'd also lose a good chunk of weight...

I just wish Marvin would participate in the drills...

Remember guys, this is a forum, about a game, of speculative betting on the statistical output of the careers of young men. Don't let what I type upset you so. Let's not take these conversations too seriously.

[Bronco Billy]

Just having fun here.
6'4" 227lbs gives us a BMI of 27.6, falling right into the middle of that statistical cluster of the type of stud we expect Marvin to become.
Let's say these guys all play at ~15lbs lighter in season. That brings them down to an in-season BMI average of 25.8. That's MUCH closer to 25 that Marvin is speculated to be! Why have I been worrying about someone weighing in at BMI 25 this whole time? I mean, it's not like we should then assume he'd also lose a good chunk of weight...

I just wish Marvin would participate in the drills...

Remember guys, this is a forum, about a game, of speculative betting on the statistical output of the careers of young men. Don't let what I type upset you so. Let's not take these conversations too seriously.

Because you’re using combine information to make your assessments.

I don’t think anyone is upset. I thought I was slightly vexed for a couple of minutes, but turns out I was wrong.

[Valhalla]

Because you’re using combine information to make your assessments.

I have, yes. Your point went over my head I'm afraid.

[Jigga94]

Not to mention, players do not play at their billed weight. There's stories of players playing anywhere from 5-15 lbs less than what they're listed at, and sometimes on the heavier side in the case of linemen.

It's a fun theoretical exercise, but it's based on information that isn't reliable and varies game to game.

And while we're here - does anyone else find it funny that once a player is weighed at the Combine, they never re-weigh them officially during their career?

I think making hard cutoffs for BMI based on their body as a 19 or 20 or 21 year old is kind of fruitless.

So long as they're around the right sort of range, I'm open to them being a couple points off of a supposed threshold if I love the player, especially if they have a frame that can grow.

/thread

[Valhalla]

Not to mention, players do not play at their billed weight. There's stories of players playing anywhere from 5-15 lbs less than what they're listed at, and sometimes on the heavier side in the case of linemen.

It's a fun theoretical exercise, but it's based on information that isn't reliable and varies game to game.

I think making hard cutoffs for BMI based on their body as a 19 or 20 or 21 year old is kind of fruitless.

/thread

Eh. I didn't make a hard cut-off. I showed a statistical cluster of the super studs, but acknowledged Moss (my favorite WR) as a BIG outlier. It's not a hard cut-off. It's a consideration in the data pool.

Also...we are playing a game in which we bet on what these people can do with their bodies, what kind of rigors they can withstand and how dominant they can be against other supreme athletes out there. Of course their body matters.
Uh oh...PC police are at my door...

[Bronco Billy]

Hey, anything that gives us a potential advantage is a great thing IMO. I think you’ve put forth a great effort Valhalla. This is all just kind of the vetting process. I really like that we appear to have created an optimal window of BMIs where we have a cluster of positives. I’ll definitely use that to help make decisions once the top guys are off the board.

Well done.

[Anteaters]

once a player is weighed at the Combine, they never re-weigh them officially during their career?

The importance of this cannot be overstated in relation to this conversation.

[Bronco Billy]

once a player is weighed at the Combine, they never re-weigh them officially during their career?

The importance of this cannot be overstated in relation to this conversation.

They do, but I believe it is up to the team when they list rosters each year as to what they submit.

From my experience, as the skill guys gain experience they gain muscle mass that is often offset by reduced body fat, so that when balanced the result changes little and then drops a bit as the season goes on and guys are still chewing up a bunch of calories but aren’t working out nearly as much.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

The bmi (i used weight, but it’s essentially the same thing) stuff isn’t perfect but it’s certainly helped me avoid several busts over the years. QJ, Denzel Mims, DJ Chark, Corey Davis, etc.

People need to stop with the whataboutism (I’ve been dealing with it for nearly a decade on this forum).

The only and best argument against the bmi data is that the entire league is shifting away from more physical play, which may lead to bmi being less and less predictive. But we won’t know if that’s the case for many more years.

Could be similar to my rb report. It’s still predicative, but we’ve seen a shift away from rb usage and more emphasis on the passing game. We’ve seen a shift away from bellcows in favor of rbbc. We’ve also seen what I believe to be more serious injuries to RBs more often, with players continually bigger faster stronger than ever before. You look back just 10-15 years and many RBs were grinding out 1000 yard seasons into their 30s. Now if you go 2 seasons without an Achilles or acl you’re thanking your lucky stars .

[Ice]

If you're drafting a WR based on a BMI measurement you are doing it wrong.

Now if you use that and a 3-cone metric together you may have something.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Of course MHJ would weigh in at 209, lol

[wickerkat1212]

Fascinating stuff here. Who are we ignoring in the draft? I guess we need measureables still.

[Jigga94]

Fascinating stuff here. Who are we ignoring in the draft? I guess we need measureables still.

I saw MHJ measurements were 6'3" 2/8 inches and 209 lbs.

A BMI of 25.9

[Menace2010]

Fascinating stuff here. Who are we ignoring in the draft? I guess we need measureables still.

I saw MHJ measurements were 6'3" 2/8 inches and 209 lbs.

A BMI of 25.9

Immediately goes on my DO NOT DRAFT list (I'm kidding). Also, interesting statistical analysis...

https://apexfantasyleagues.com/is-it-ti ... %20players.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Fascinating stuff here. Who are we ignoring in the draft? I guess we need measureables still.

I saw MHJ measurements were 6'3" 2/8 inches and 209 lbs.

A BMI of 25.9

RIP