How Do You Handle ADP?

[wickerkat1212]

So how do you guys handle ADP? Let me elaborate.

Let's say there is a guy that due to your unique research, number crunching, and film you have him ranked way higher than most standard draft boards, websites, and rankings—how do you handle that?

For instance, you have this WR, let's call him John Williams, and most places have him as the WR18, and he's got an ADP of about 34 in your Superflex leagues. You have him ranked as WR8, ranked about 24.

If ADP is about 34, and you have him as more like 24, do you take him with your second round pick? Are we trying to JUMP the ADP or are we hoping he falls, and we get him later, closer to his ADP?

ADP is 34.
You have him at 24.

Would you take him with your 2.01, 2.06, or 3.01 pick?

I never really put together my own rankings, so I can't really say go BPA.
I don't really have the confidence to put together my own big board (say, top 50 players).
I tend to target guys on various tiers in different rounds based on my picks.
And based on my needs.

Thoughts?

[TheTroll]

Do the math…if he is your guy and you have to have him, figure out the pick you have that is 1 round earlier than ADP. It’s a reach but not out of the realm of obscene. BPA doesn’t need to be from your rankings, just a master list from somewhere you trust.

[MacDaddy123]

I go more by my rankings than ADP, especially since some sites ADP tend to be sketchy.
However, I don't reach too far, but I have guys a round higher or lower than consensus or ADP.

Now I am not a totally "get your guy" manager, not as bad as some.
I know one pod-caster who was VERY high on Miles Sanders in 2023.
He felt that the contract and lack of other RB's, that Sanders would be a top 10 RB in fantasy in 2023.

He would reach up and take Sanders several rounds higher than projected, just to make sure he got him.
Obviously that did not go well for him.

[Anteaters]

If ADP is about 34, and you have him as more like 24, do you take him with your second round pick? Are we trying to JUMP the ADP or are we hoping he falls, and we get him later, closer to his ADP?

This is how I always draft. I jump on some of my choices, and wait for others to fall to me.

I put my own ADP (though I call it valuation) on players and draft according to how I value them.

If I want a WR at a certain pick and the consensus has Mike Smith at WR30 but I have Todd Stickyhands at WR20, I take Todd Stickyhands every time, even if the consensus has Todd Stickyhands at WR54.

I never take a consensus ADP over a guy I personally value more. I trust my process more than half the pablum that passes as consensus. Never.

[TheTroll]

If ADP is about 34, and you have him as more like 24, do you take him with your second round pick? Are we trying to JUMP the ADP or are we hoping he falls, and we get him later, closer to his ADP?

This is how I always draft. I jump on some of my choices, and wait for others to fall to me.

I put my own ADP (though I call it valuation) on players and draft according to how I value them.

If I want a WR at a certain pick and the consensus has Mike Smith at WR30 but I have Todd Stickyhands at WR20, I take Todd Stickyhands every time, even if the consensus has Todd Stickyhands at WR54.

I never take a consensus ADP over a guy I personally value more. I trust my process more than half the pablum that passes as consensus. Never.

I have had a few shares of Todd Stickyhands. He never let me down

[tstafford]

I'd say I use ADP less in rookie drafts than I do with current players.

In general, the first round of rookie drafts is fairly chalky. I have my players tiered and I'm probably not deviating from that too much. I do want to know where my ranks differ from consensus. But it's just a sanity check not something I'm going to react to very much.

After round one, I don't care a bit about ADP in a rookie draft. Picks in the second and subsequent rounds are 50/50 at best, so ADP doesn't matter. I'm of the mind that you just take "your guy" in rounds two and later. I'm more inclined to weigh in team need, league dynamics, etc. which makes ADP even less relevant.

[TheTroll]

I'd say I use ADP less in rookie drafts than I do with current players.

In general, the first round of rookie drafts is fairly chalky. I have my players tiered and I'm probably not deviating from that too much. I do want to know where my ranks differ from consensus. But it's just a sanity check not something I'm going to react to very much.

After round one, I don't care a bit about ADP in a rookie draft. Picks in the second and subsequent rounds are 50/50 at best, so ADP doesn't matter. I'm of the mind that you just take "your guy" in rounds two and later. I'm more inclined to weigh in team need, league dynamics, etc. which makes ADP even less relevant.

Smart advice…even for a Titans fan. We all do our eval different and if you stop at 20 players, then depend on a site you trust. ADP is last resort and you are just drafting to draft

[Cameron Giles]

You'll miss out on more good players than not trying to leverage ADP against your league in rookie drafts.

Just take the player. The focus shouldn't be on having an aesthetically pleasing draft to align with what ADP looks like in that moment in time. It should be on getting your guys.

I've missed out on a bunch of good players trying to select them where they "should" go instead of just taking them

[dynastyninja]

The boring KTC thread didn't stick so you had to start another?

[Shcritters]

You'll miss out on more good players than not trying to leverage ADP against your league in rookie drafts.

Just take the player. The focus shouldn't be on having an aesthetically pleasing draft to align with what ADP looks like in that moment in time. It should be on getting your guys.

I've missed out on a bunch of good players trying to select them where they "should" go instead of just taking them

Agreed. If you're in rookie drafts, in general, just take your person.

If I have someone I think might be a late 2nd and I don't have a pick near that I'd look to try to trade up about half a round earlier to try to get them. 3rd/4th... usually a full-round because that's when the variance in picks becomes much larger.

[murphysxm]

I know one pod-caster who was VERY high on Miles Sanders in 2023.
He felt that the contract and lack of other RB's, that Sanders would be a top 10 RB in fantasy in 2023.

He would reach up and take Sanders several rounds higher than projected, just to make sure he got him.
Obviously that did not go well for him.

Leave Heath alone! If I am enamored and fall in love with a prospect I am ok overpaying to make sure i get him. I don't want to have him get snipped because I tried to get to cute. I don't fall in love often, but when I do they are pretty good bets to succeed and I will own them everywhere.

[wickerkat1212]

Thanks, guys, great discussion here. It's the dead time of year after the Superbowl and before the combine and draft, so I wanted to pick your brains on a topic that held my interest. I think especially this year with some 8-11 WRs after the top three having huge upside, I wanted to see what your process was. I'm trying to get as many 2nd round picks as I can to get a shot at these guys. Trying to figure out my process in a league, for example, where I have multiple picks:

Superflex #2

1.02
1.06
2.02
2.04

Superflex #1

3.01
3.04
3.12

I appreciate the discussion.

[killer_of_giants]

i play chicken, and mostly lose.

[wickerkat1212]

LOL

[MacDaddy123]

Thanks, guys, great discussion here. It's the dead time of year after the Superbowl and before the combine and draft, so I wanted to pick your brains on a topic that held my interest. I think especially this year with some 8-11 WRs after the top three having huge upside, I wanted to see what your process was. I'm trying to get as many 2nd round picks as I can to get a shot at these guys. Trying to figure out my process in a league, for example, where I have multiple picks:

Superflex #2

1.02
1.06
2.02
2.04

Superflex #1

3.01
3.04
3.12

I appreciate the discussion.

12 team SF #1
1.01
1.04
1.06
1.08
1.12
2.05
2.06
2.12
3.01
3.04
3.09
3.12
4.01

14 team SF #2
3.13

12 team SF #3 (Full IDP)
1.06
1.12
3.01
3.06
4.06
5.03
5.06
5.07
6.06
7.06

12 team SF #4
1.08
3.08
4.08

12 team SF #5
1.05
1.11
2.03
2.05
2.08
3.09
5.11

12 team SF #6
2.11
3.09
3.11
4.11
5.11