2024 Free Agency

[tstafford]

Is Tua the best QB in Florida?

I remember this "best" sort of talk swirling around Tua in fantasy circles since MM became head coach. Fantasy managers saying fill-in-the-blank is a "better" QB than Tua. Even when stats (what matters in fantasy football) show Tua is the better (or at least not worse) option, people keep talking about their "feeling" of guys better suited to be a QB.

Just to rewind. Since MM became head coach...
2023 Tua was QB9, Baker QB10, TLaw QB13
2022 Tua was QB7 (ppg for games finished).

No, neither was quite as high as QB5, but it's not like I was ten spots off or anything.

Meanwhile, Herbert slides to QB17 in 2023 and everyone says, "no problem, I 'feel' JH is a good qb and I'm not going to let this ruin what I feel."
Meanwhile, TLaw has never finished in the T10QB for PPG, but everyone "feels" he's a much better fantasy QB than Tua.
Wherever Tua finishes, the naysayers shout "he's no Mahomes, no Allen, no Hurts!!!" Ok with me, 'cause those guys cost a fortune and there are only three of them.

It's not like I dislike Herbert or TLaw. They are good options. But comparing cost-to-acquire and their fantasy production year-to-year, it's clear which is the best value of the three. Best of the four, including Burrow. Not just best value, but arguably best (of the four) fantasy option.

So yeah, I'll continue to be very happy with my Tua shares that I got for a lot less than what it cost(s) to get TLaw and Herbert.

Completely agree. And FWIW - I'd add that Kyler is a better value than those guys as well.

One thing of note - although it took too long, the market does seem to be correcting on T.Law. In SF ADP he was QB7 (and overall #7) this time last year, that's plummeted to QB13 (overall #19) in the latest data. During a start up last year I essentially traded T.Law for CeeDee/2024 1st. That type of deal isn't going to happen any more.

[trc]

One thing of note - although it took too long, the market does seem to be correcting on T.Law. In SF ADP he was QB7 (and overall #7) this time last year, that's plummeted to QB13 (overall #19) in the latest data. During a start up last year I essentially traded T.Law for CeeDee/2024 1st. That type of deal isn't going to happen any more.

The big question is, will he swing back and making this a buy opportunity?!

PFF has him graded at #15 for the season (excluding Brissett, Dalton, Trask and Wentz). Same ranking as 2022.
This suggests it is correct at #13-ish.

I don't watch anything besides red-zone, so can't tell how the games pan out.

[tstafford]

One thing of note - although it took too long, the market does seem to be correcting on T.Law. In SF ADP he was QB7 (and overall #7) this time last year, that's plummeted to QB13 (overall #19) in the latest data. During a start up last year I essentially traded T.Law for CeeDee/2024 1st. That type of deal isn't going to happen any more.

The big question is, will he swing back and making this a buy opportunity?!

PFF has him graded at #15 for the season (excluding Brissett, Dalton, Trask and Wentz). Same ranking as 2022.
This suggests it is correct at #13-ish.

I don't watch anything besides red-zone, so can't tell how the games pan out.

I don't think it's a buy opportunity. I think it's fair value. My prediction - he's still right around QB13 in a year.

[CGW]

One thing of note - although it took too long, the market does seem to be correcting on T.Law. In SF ADP he was QB7 (and overall #7) this time last year, that's plummeted to QB13 (overall #19) in the latest data. During a start up last year I essentially traded T.Law for CeeDee/2024 1st. That type of deal isn't going to happen any more.

The big question is, will he swing back and making this a buy opportunity?!

PFF has him graded at #15 for the season (excluding Brissett, Dalton, Trask and Wentz). Same ranking as 2022.
This suggests it is correct at #13-ish.

I don't watch anything besides red-zone, so can't tell how the games pan out.

I'm taking a few shots at TLaw in the QB13 range. That's low enough that there is some decent upside potential. Still having a hard time finding many who are discounting him that much though.

[Lumps]

One thing of note - although it took too long, the market does seem to be correcting on T.Law. In SF ADP he was QB7 (and overall #7) this time last year, that's plummeted to QB13 (overall #19) in the latest data. During a start up last year I essentially traded T.Law for CeeDee/2024 1st. That type of deal isn't going to happen any more.

The big question is, will he swing back and making this a buy opportunity?!

PFF has him graded at #15 for the season (excluding Brissett, Dalton, Trask and Wentz). Same ranking as 2022.
This suggests it is correct at #13-ish.

I don't watch anything besides red-zone, so can't tell how the games pan out.

Hard to say - there were a lot of just BARELY incompletions last year, especially with Ridley. Toe taps that didn’t land. A foot too far of a pass. New connection problems? Or just not perfect accuracy?

[mild]

The big question is, will he swing back and making this a buy opportunity?!

PFF has him graded at #15 for the season (excluding Brissett, Dalton, Trask and Wentz). Same ranking as 2022.
This suggests it is correct at #13-ish.

I don't watch anything besides red-zone, so can't tell how the games pan out.

I don't think it's a buy opportunity. I think it's fair value. My prediction - he's still right around QB13 in a year.

I think he has the potential to sink even a bit further down, personally. We might not be at the bottom of the buying dip yet - that would be my gamble.

I feel like the market is correcting because most of us are rightfully bullish on how bad the Jags offseason has been so far.

Losing Calvin Ridley and replacing him with Gabe Davis... is... that's pretty bad. I don't know any T-Law owners who are thrilled by his 2024 prospects at this point post-FA moves. Perhaps they solve WR in the draft. Or perhaps: Baalke. I don't feel the need to give any benefit of the doubt to the Baalke Jaguars.

Further to that, see the storm coming on the horizon: Caleb is already ranked ahead of him.

If any of Maye, Daniels, hell even JJM if he goes to the Vikings and flashes - take an early season leap... this is a high ceiling QB class. It's almost a foregone conclusion that the Top 12 QB list is going to look quite different in 10 months.

[Anteaters]

The big question is, will he swing back and making this a buy opportunity?!

PFF has him graded at #15 for the season (excluding Brissett, Dalton, Trask and Wentz). Same ranking as 2022.
This suggests it is correct at #13-ish.

I don't watch anything besides red-zone, so can't tell how the games pan out.

I don't think it's a buy opportunity. I think it's fair value. My prediction - he's still right around QB13 in a year.

I think he has the potential to sink even a bit further down, personally. We might not be at the bottom of the buying dip yet - that would be my gamble.

I feel like the market is correcting because most of us are rightfully bullish on how bad the Jags offseason has been so far.

Losing Calvin Ridley and replacing him with Gabe Davis... is... that's pretty bad. I don't know any T-Law owners who are thrilled by his 2024 prospects at this point post-FA moves. Perhaps they solve WR in the draft. Or perhaps: Baalke. I don't feel the need to give any benefit of the doubt to the Baalke Jaguars.

Further to that, see the storm coming on the horizon: Caleb is already ranked ahead of him.

If any of Maye, Daniels, hell even JJM if he goes to the Vikings and flashes - take an early season leap... this is a high ceiling QB class. It's almost a foregone conclusion that the Top 12 QB list is going to look quite different in 10 months.

Does this line of reasoning also dictate a downgrading of Herbert? His offseason was arguably (definitely?) worse than TLaw's offseason. If TLaw has less value because the Jags lost Ridley, how many steps down the ladder should we move Herbert after losing Keenan, Ekeler and Mike?

[mild]

Does this line of reasoning also dictate a downgrading of Herbert? His offseason was arguably (definitely?) worse than TLaw's offseason. If TLaw has less value because the Jags lost Ridley, how many steps down the ladder should we move Herbert after losing Keenan, Ekeler and Mike?

Herbert definitely takes a short-term hit, for sure. The difference is, he's still a target for rebuilding teams - because we've seen him have elite output in fantasy, and we know that ceiling is there. The talent is not in question.

We're still waiting to see any such stretch of Top 5 scoring from Lawrence.

Situation in the case of assessing whether someone has further to "dip" is something you can factor in when weighing when to acquire. If you can pry Herbert from other owners, this season could prove an excellent time to do so - without a doubt, it's going to get rough.

The issue will be that most see a consistent narrative and a direction with the Chargers - that they're taking a step back this season, in order to take their medicine, and build up a contender with a clean cap sheet in 2025. Harbaugh's a winner, everywhere he's been. You can at least tell yourself a story on narrative street that better days are ahead.

I don't know what the f--- kind of story I can tell you about the Jags. Could not tell you their plan, their direction, or if their staff will be there next year. It could just as soon be another full FO/HC reset if T-Law and this team have another mediocre season.

[Anteaters]

Does this line of reasoning also dictate a downgrading of Herbert? His offseason was arguably (definitely?) worse than TLaw's offseason. If TLaw has less value because the Jags lost Ridley, how many steps down the ladder should we move Herbert after losing Keenan, Ekeler and Mike?

Herbert definitely takes a short-term hit, for sure. The difference is, he's still a target for rebuilding teams - because we've seen him have elite output in fantasy, and we know that ceiling is there. The talent is not in question.

We're still waiting to see any such stretch of Top 5 scoring from Lawrence.

Situation in the case of assessing whether someone has further to "dip" is something you can factor in when weighing when to acquire. If you can pry Herbert from other owners, this season could prove an excellent time to do so - without a doubt, it's going to get rough.

The issue will be that most see a consistent narrative and a direction with the Chargers - that they're taking a step back this season, in order to take their medicine, and build up a contender with a clean cap sheet in 2025. Harbaugh's a winner, everywhere he's been. You can at least tell yourself a story on narrative street that better days are ahead.

I don't know what the f--- kind of story I can tell you about the Jags. Could not tell you their plan, their direction, or if their staff will be there next year. It could just as soon be another full FO/HC reset if T-Law and this team have another mediocre season.

Fair enough that Herbert has put up T5QB numbers before while TLaw has not.

I still think there's some reason to expect at least a temporary decline in production. Herbert's best production came when he had two very talented and productive WRs and a great RB on the field with him. He has none of that right now. And getting a top WR (and a gifted pass-catching RB) isn't an automatic thing. The Chargers might get one next year, or they might whiff and it takes three or four seasons.

I don't expect Herbert to fall off the productivity ledge, but there is reason to expect (at least slightly) depressed stats for at least one season. Maybe longer.

[Menace2010]

I'm going to play devils advocate here, admittedly a biased Jags fan, but they strengthened the o-line first thing in FA. That should pay huge dividens. Lawrence struggled with instant pressure up the middle last season. Ridley to Gabe is a huge downgrade, but based on the role they wanted Ridley to play (primarily outside, deep sideline shots), Davis isn't an awful replacement for those. Add in a hopefully healthy season from Kirk and Zay Jones, and I think despite the loss of Ridley the offense is looking up.

[wickerkat1212]

I'm going to play devils advocate here, admittedly a biased Jags fan, but they strengthened the o-line first thing in FA. That should pay huge dividens. Lawrence struggled with instant pressure up the middle last season. Ridley to Gabe is a huge downgrade, but based on the role they wanted Ridley to play (primarily outside, deep sideline shots), Davis isn't an awful replacement for those. Add in a hopefully healthy season from Kirk and Zay Jones, and I think despite the loss of Ridley the offense is looking up.

And they probably get a WR in the draft, too. Not first round, IMO, but later.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I'm going to play devils advocate here, admittedly a biased Jags fan, but they strengthened the o-line first thing in FA. That should pay huge dividens. Lawrence struggled with instant pressure up the middle last season. Ridley to Gabe is a huge downgrade, but based on the role they wanted Ridley to play (primarily outside, deep sideline shots), Davis isn't an awful replacement for those. Add in a hopefully healthy season from Kirk and Zay Jones, and I think despite the loss of Ridley the offense is looking up.

Yeah, Ridley is light years better than Gabe, but for the role they play on the jags the difference in production probably won’t be nearly as great as the gap in talent.

[jordanzs]

Paris Campbell to the Eagles.

[qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj]

[/quote]
Does this line of reasoning also dictate a downgrading of Herbert? His offseason was arguably (definitely?) worse than TLaw's offseason. If TLaw has less value because the Jags lost Ridley, how many steps down the ladder should we move Herbert after losing Keenan, Ekeler and Mike?
[/quote]

Also lost Everett. Not a world beater by any means, but he did turn into a bit of a safety blanket for Herbert last season at times.

[Lumps]

49ers are apparently listening to offers for Aiyuk. Feels like a mistake.