What % of the game is luck?

[RobertBobson]

The whole skill verses luck thing is something that comes into all gambling sort of games. Luck holds a huge factor over short term results, over the course of one game or one season. There are so many things out of your control, week to week and season to season. The more knowledgeable and "skillful" your league is in general the smaller your edge is (if you have an edge at all) and the more dominant luck becomes. If you play in a league with a number of casual players you can expect to dominate in a way that you won't in a league with knowledgeable players. Also, luck ( in the form of injuries) can have a devastating effect on your results in multiple seasons in dynasty. A power house team can turn in a rebuilding project with a couple of catastrophic injuries.

You have to take the long view when it comes to your knowledge as a fantasy player. It shows up in your results across leagues and seasons, not just any one season where a team underperforms. I'd be more concerned in your points scored in evaluating you team rather than your record, which can be extremely luck oriented. If you're 3-9 but a top 4 scoring team, then yeah, it sucks that you are in last this year, but your future is extremely bright with a strong team and a high draft pick.

[tidewaterjc]

But in an active league, those owners are going to be just as savvy as you are. Everyone's playing with the same set of sleepers. This isn't 1985 where you're only source of information is your VHS copy of Monday Night Football and The Sporting News. Now, you just go over to same sites that everyone else is using and find the next sleeper. And if you're jumping the gun on potential sleepers for stash....whether they hit is often based on luck.

It's mostly luck, guys.

Disagree... you make your own luck. The savy GM is always looking ahead 1-2 years on every trade / WW pickup, or at least contemplating a couple years in advance. Same as in life, those that subscribe to "carpe diem - sieze the day" don't often taste the desert later, but only the meal in front of them.

[knuckles50]

I am going into the playoffs in 3 of my 4 leagues and the team I described in the original post is my only team not going! It is my most productive team (in terms of points scored) but I have over 100 more points scored against me than any other team in that league. That is what got me thinking about luck.

[VFaiola]

The savy GM is always looking ahead 1-2 years on every trade / WW pickup, or at least contemplating a couple years in advance.

I'm sure only the savvy GM's knew before last season that Arian Foster, Peyton Hillis, Brandon Lloyd and Lagarrette Blount were going to be stars last year because savvy Fantasy GMs know more than real GMs =)

And Victor Cruz was on rosters two years ago, not that garbage Mario Manningham. And savvy owners took Demarco Murray way ahead of Thomas and Ingrim, right? Because they knew he'd be a top 10 back this year.

And I'm sure those savvy owners were also a year or two ahead on CJ Spiller, Knowshown Moreno, Jacoby Ford, Michael Crabtree....oh, wait...we're still waiting for those guys.

Looking ahead 1 to 2 years only works if you're Nostradamus.

I assume any active owner is trying his best to look ahead 1-2 years in a Dynasty League. But more often than not who breaks out and who flunks out is out of our hands.

[ekassor]

I'll tell you one thing, in my non dlf leagues I'm picking up division titles and bye weeks. Same thing this year. In my DLF leagues I'm lucky to get a wildcard berth. Its not all luck.

[tidewaterjc]

The savy GM is always looking ahead 1-2 years on every trade / WW pickup, or at least contemplating a couple years in advance.

I'm sure only the savvy GM's knew before last season that Arian Foster, Peyton Hillis, Brandon Lloyd and Lagarrette Blount were going to be stars last year because savvy Fantasy GMs know more than real GMs =)

And Victor Cruz was on rosters two years ago, not that garbage Mario Manningham. And savvy owners took Demarco Murray way ahead of Thomas and Ingrim, right? Because they knew he'd be a top 10 back this year.

And I'm sure those savvy owners were also a year or two ahead on CJ Spiller, Knowshown Moreno, Jacoby Ford, Michael Crabtree....oh, wait...we're still waiting for those guys.

Looking ahead 1 to 2 years only works if you're Nostradamus.

I assume any active owner is trying his best to look ahead 1-2 years in a Dynasty League. But more often than not who breaks out and who flunks out is out of our hands.

You are becoming notorious for making arguments out of every thread by stating obvious and opposite points of view... easy to do...

Obviously, you chose to read the post that way so that for some reason you could post an argument/opposite POV... you make your own luck by staying active and ahead of the curve... i prefer the term fate... it is what it is... teams on paper do not always translate to championships, it's just fact - live with it.

You want to believe it is 80% luck as you posted earlier... great... i prefer fate... luck is for those that need an excuse for why a situation turned good/bad... call it what you will ... semantics... word smithing... whatever....

[VFaiola]

You want to believe it is 80% luck as you posted earlier... great... i prefer fate... luck is for those that need an excuse for why a situation turned good/bad... call it what you will ... semantics... word smithing... whatever....

Fate certainly isn't skill.

I think those owners that think they have more control over their 'fate' than other ACTIVE owners are absolutely arrogant.

You are becoming notorious for making arguments out of every thread by stating obvious and opposite points of view... easy to do

If those are obvious opposite points of view...then you agree that it's mostly luck because a savvy owner surely wouldn't make those mistakes? It's really easy to just say you think it's skill, it's a lot harder to actually back up that talk with clear examples of how skill works out in a competitive, active league (unless you're playing with morons).

Do you have examples of what a savvy owner would do to 'stay ahead of the curve?' For every free agent 'hit' (Kevin Smith, Victor Cruz, Eric Decker) there's at least a corresponding 'miss' (Keiland Williams, Dominick Hixon, Demetrious Thomas).

The best parable is poker. You put your chips on the table and play your best hand. But even the best of the best don't usually win the World Series of Poker.

I'm 10-1 in my dynasty league and I'd say I've had bad luck in some areas (Chris Johnson, Larry Fitz haven't played to potential) but I've been lucky in others (not a lot of injuries, a middle-of-the-pack strength of schedule).

[standard_variance]

You want to believe it is 80% luck as you posted earlier... great... i prefer fate... luck is for those that need an excuse for why a situation turned good/bad... call it what you will ... semantics... word smithing... whatever....

Fate certainly isn't skill.

I think those owners that think they have more control over their 'fate' than other ACTIVE owners are absolutely arrogant.

You are becoming notorious for making arguments out of every thread by stating obvious and opposite points of view... easy to do

If those are obvious opposite points of view...then you agree that it's mostly luck because a savvy owner surely wouldn't make those mistakes? It's really easy to just say you think it's skill, it's a lot harder to actually back up that talk with clear examples of how skill works out in a competitive, active league (unless you're playing with morons).

Do you have examples of what a savvy owner would do to 'stay ahead of the curve?' For every free agent 'hit' (Kevin Smith, Victor Cruz, Eric Decker) there's at least a corresponding 'miss' (Keiland Williams, Dominick Hixon, Demetrious Thomas).

The best parable is poker. You put your chips on the table and play your best hand. But even the best of the best don't usually win the World Series of Poker.

I'm 10-1 in my dynasty league and I'd say I've had bad luck in some areas (Chris Johnson, Larry Fitz haven't played to potential) but I've been lucky in others (not a lot of injuries, a middle-of-the-pack strength of schedule).

But the best of the best are constantly winning money....LOL. Its about odds, and decision making....putting yourself in the best situations consistently in the long run will favor you - not guarantee, but favor. Thats one thing you do have control over....the situations you put yourself in. If you put yourself in good situations an overwhelming amount of the time....then chances are your success will increase due to that - hence decision making skills. Saying fantasy football is all luck is as ambiguous as using religion as a crutch to explain things. The truth is some people use religion (or in this case luck) as an excuse to not having to dig any deeper for explanations beyond - thats just the way it is. The fact is there ARE things you can do to improve your results over time....whether or not you want to understand those things is up to you, and how serious of a hobby it is for you.

[Wallace's Warriors]

99% luck. You don't see the same guy winning in everyone of his leagues do you? Last year all of my teams made the playoffs this year I will probably end up at about 40%. For something not to have luck heavily involved it would need to be something you do and not something where you get other people and hope they do what you want them to do. Even the NFL players rely on luck. Michael Bush is lucky because D-Mac went out. A RB is lucky when a coach chooses to run the ball on 3rd and 1 at the 1 yard line.

[VFaiola]

For something not to have luck heavily involved it would need to be something you do and not something where you get other people and hope they do what you want them to do.

Exactly!

We have no control over weather, coach's doghouses, NFL schedule strength affected by injuries, NFL depth chart affected by injuries.

And those are major factors affecting if pickups pan out or not.

Plus, there's the simple fact that even NFL talent evaluators strike out more often than they hit a home run. Look at the Patriots last draft. If it's an inexact science for professionals, you're kidding yourself if you can do better.

The fact is there ARE things you can do to improve your results over time....whether or not you want to understand those things is up to you, and how serious of a hobby it is for you.

Yes, you can not draft a kicker before the last round and you can understand position scarcity and your league rules...are we calling these skills now? I assume you're talking about active leagues where a basic understanding of the principles of the game exist.

Where you can pick up Kevin Smith a week before everyone else, just like I did, but it's LUCK that he pans out. Just as it's LUCK that Keiland Williams didn't pan out the week before that. Because we can't say we know that these flyers will do much of anything (see the debate on Kevin Smith's current value).

[standard_variance]

For something not to have luck heavily involved it would need to be something you do and not something where you get other people and hope they do what you want them to do.

Exactly!

We have no control over weather, coach's doghouses, NFL schedule strength affected by injuries, NFL depth chart affected by injuries.

And those are major factors affecting if pickups pan out or not.

Plus, there's the simple fact that even NFL talent evaluators strike out more often than they hit a home run. Look at the Patriots last draft. If it's an inexact science for professionals, you're kidding yourself if you can do better.

The fact is there ARE things you can do to improve your results over time....whether or not you want to understand those things is up to you, and how serious of a hobby it is for you.

Yes, you can not draft a kicker before the last round and you can understand position scarcity and your league rules...are we calling these skills now? I assume you're talking about active leagues where a basic understanding of the principles of the game exist.

Where you can pick up Kevin Smith a week before everyone else, just like I did, but it's LUCK that he pans out. Just as it's LUCK that Keiland Williams didn't pan out the week before that. Because we can't say we know that these flyers will do much of anything (see the debate on Kevin Smith's current value).

So my question to you is this.....do you REALLY believe that someone who submits a line-up every week for 10 years without ANY KNOWLEDGE of ANYTHING (player skills, match-up knowledge, weather, injuries, etc...) is going to fare just as well as someone who actually does that research consistently and knows how to adjust? Because thats basically what you are saying.... and it sounds silly. Humans dont have complete knowledge or control over anything....like I said you are throwing this into a complete state of ambiguity by supporting that. The question isnt do we have complete control, the question is how much control do you have? And how significant of an impact does that have on your outcome? It cant be 100% luck because then that would mean we would have no control AT ALL. It cant be 0% Luck because that would me we have complete control. It has to fall somewhere in the middle...I'd say probably much closer to 50/50. I'd say 55-60% skill for me.

I picked up Kevin Smith as soon as they resigned him. I actually started him the week he blew up in multiple leagues (and not because I was forced too). In my redraft league I picked up Demarco Murray, and Tim Tebow despite my RB's being fine. I traded Mendenhall for what seemed like scraps earlier this season (Demarco Murray, Davone Bess, and Pierre Thomas). I've hedged lots of bets on free agents - Chaz Schilens, Keiland Williams, Jake Ballard, Ogbonnaya, Aromashadu, KSmith. Doesnt mean I'll be right on all of them, or even that I expected all of them to be highly productive....but just knowing when to pick them, and what to expect is key in making a conscious choice. A choice implies control...thus by default by havign the ability to make a plethora of decisions you already have a significant amount of control. Who to start, who to pickup, who to trade, when to trade them, for how much.....all of those things you have a significant amount of control over already....thus skills have to play some role or else having control over those things wouldnt make a difference - which I would find it hard pressed for ANYONE, even you, to admit.

[ConnSKINS26]

Not to single you out WW, but for me personally, if I actually thought that this FF stuff, especially in a dynasty setting, was 99% luck I sure as hell wouldn't spend so much time on it as one of my major hobbies. That would be ridiculous. 99% is an outrageously high number. That would mean that almost nothing you do, and none of the work you put in, matters. Because it would be almost entirely luck

If there are people posting on this website who really believe that, and spend a lot of time on FF, they would be hopelessly wasting their time. And if you happen to be right about that 99% figure...well then, we're all a bunch of morons for caring so much.

[Wallace's Warriors]

Not to single you out WW, but for me personally, if I actually thought that this FF stuff, especially in a dynasty setting, was 99% luck I sure as hell wouldn't spend so much time on it as one of my major hobbies. That would be ridiculous. 99% is an outrageously high number. That would mean that almost nothing you do, and none of the work you put in, matters. Because it would be almost entirely luck

If there are people posting on this website who really believe that, and spend a lot of time on FF, they would be hopelessly wasting their time. And if you happen to be right about that 99% figure...well then, we're all a bunch of morons for caring so much.

I consider luck in this situation anything you can't control. You can make as many educated guesses as you want but it could be wrong. You can't forget injuries which can screw up your teams. Then where people fall in your draft is luck. Then finding a trading partner that you can take advantage of is luck. Then the coaches playcalling is luck. Then the most important element, which is how the players actually do, is luck. Did you actually think CJ2K was going to be this bad this year. His rushing numbers are actually decent but he has very few TDs which could easily be changed by the coach running it on the goaline. Try doing that challenge for DLF and the flip a coin and see if you can beat the coin. Chances are you are going to win but around 40% of the time the coin will win and that is without any knowledge of anything.

[RobertBobson]

Here's a case for FF being luck..

There's a guy in one of my leagues, who's been in our league from the beginning. He's not inactive, he's just incompetent. Not only is he incompetent, he's cocky and thinks he's a great fantasy manager. Here are some attributes of his team, as of right now.

1) Our league allows 25 active players, 2 taxi, two IR. he has 23 active players
2) Two of his running backs, Tim Hightower and Fred Jackson are eligible for IR. But, rather than move them to IR, he's opted to roster Earnest Graham and Roscoe Parish on IR.
3) Our league is PPR, 2 rb, 2 wr and 2 wr/rb/te flex. WR's are very valuable. In spite of that, he's rostered 5 te's.. Gronk, clark, pope, boss and dave thomas ( who's eligible for IR)
4) he's carrying two kickers ( and has rostered as many as 4 in the past)
5) His wr 2 is doug baldwin. His wr 3 is robert meachem
6) He is 10-2 and is going have a bye for certain in the playoffs, and may have the 1 seed depending on how the last week turns out

[knuckles50]

That is too funny! Maybe my estimation of 80% should be revisited. I agree that you can put yourself in good positions and that's what we all work so hard to do but to discount the role that luck plays is foolish.

Here's a case for FF being luck..

There's a guy in one of my leagues, who's been in our league from the beginning. He's not inactive, he's just incompetent. Not only is he incompetent, he's cocky and thinks he's a great fantasy manager. Here are some attributes of his team, as of right now.

1) Our league allows 25 active players, 2 taxi, two IR. he has 23 active players
2) Two of his running backs, Tim Hightower and Fred Jackson are eligible for IR. But, rather than move them to IR, he's opted to roster Earnest Graham and Roscoe Parish on IR.
3) Our league is PPR, 2 rb, 2 wr and 2 wr/rb/te flex. WR's are very valuable. In spite of that, he's rostered 5 te's.. Gronk, clark, pope, boss and dave thomas ( who's eligible for IR)
4) he's carrying two kickers ( and has rostered as many as 4 in the past)
5) His wr 2 is doug baldwin. His wr 3 is robert meachem
6) He is 10-2 and is going have a bye for certain in the playoffs, and may have the 1 seed depending on how the last week turns out