What % of the game is luck?

[knuckles50]

I hate to admit it but I think luck plays a huge part in our game that we love so much. For example: I am in a league where I own Romo, Foster, Turner, Lynch, Stevie Styles, AJ Green, Austin, Finley, and Janikowski. If I gave you that roster week 1 we would all say it's a title contender. I am 3-9 with the worst record in the league due to the team never clicking at the same time and bad matchups. I think fantasy football is 80% luck! What % of winning do you guys attribute to luck?

[VFaiola]

In an active league with knowledgeable owners, I'd say 80% sounds about right.

Not only does the randomness of the schedule play a huge part, so too does the random nature of health.

That's why I find vetoes hilarious. People like to think they know better than the next guy- when in fact nobody knows jack.

[skip]

I am not sure there is a %age you can put on it but I would say closer to 50/50.

The game is a lot like playing cards. You can be a highly skilled player yet face a number of things which are out of your control, most notably weekly matchups and injuries. The defending champion in my league has a roster much like yours in talent (Vick/Schaub, Chris Johnson, DMC, Nicks, Bowe, Britt, SidRice, V.Davis) and is also 3-9. He actually had Steve Johnson and Marshall and traded them for Britt/SidRice so he wasn't as riddled with injuries as he is now.

My last two years I have been brutalized with injuries within the first 2 weeks of the season and pretty much eliminated right off. One of the years I started 3-0 then lost 10 straight. This season my team has dealt with its share of dings and bruises but nothing which has devastated it.

The best you can do is build as much talent as you can and play your best lineup.

[meineymoe]

I hate to admit it but I think luck plays a huge part in our game that we love so much. For example: I am in a league where I own Romo, Foster, Turner, Lynch, Stevie Styles, AJ Green, Austin, Finley, and Janikowski. If I gave you that roster week 1 we would all say it's a title contender.

yes, week one that may have looked like a title contender. However, if that is still the core of your lineup in week 13, then you haven't made enough moves during the course of the season to keep up with the other variables, like injuries, slumps, and picking up the hot free agents.

We make our luck. It may be 80% luck for an inactive owner, but for the active owner, it's more like the 50% mentioned above.

-oo-

[Jimi Hendrix]

I hate to admit it but I think luck plays a huge part in our game that we love so much. For example: I am in a league where I own Romo, Foster, Turner, Lynch, Stevie Styles, AJ Green, Austin, Finley, and Janikowski. If I gave you that roster week 1 we would all say it's a title contender.

yes, week one that may have looked like a title contender. However, if that is still the core of your lineup in week 13, then you haven't made enough moves during the course of the season to keep up with the other variables, like injuries, slumps, and picking up the hot free agents.

We make our luck. It may be 80% luck for an inactive owner, but for the active owner, it's more like the 50% mentioned above.

-oo-

true, championship teams are not put together thru the draft, they are built thru constant monitoring of free agents and how savy you are making your waiver selections

[tidewaterjc]

true, championship teams are not put together thru the draft, they are built thru constant monitoring of free agents and how savy you are making your waiver selections

This ^^^^^ Depth allows you to "hedge" against matchups and reduces the luck factor, tho always present.

[ascherb]

In a redraft league that has all owners who are knowledgeable, it's more than 50% luck.

Injuries to early round picks, schedule, weather, etc. The only thing that actually takes skill is picking sleepers and making deals, but even that involves a good amount of luck.

[joeday]

I agree with some of the above. I draft well but I'm not shy to make aggressive waiver move/trades. When I am not at a bar and drunkly checking DLF I will give some luck examples over the years in my main league. I will say though that if you don't stay aggressive then you lose. Side note: sometimes luck has its own pitfalls. I have Brady and Stafford in one league and I have picked the wrong one 4 straight weeks but have been lucky to go 4-0 in that stretch!

[standard_variance]

I completely agree with the notion of we make our own luck....a lot of people become enamored with how a team looks on paper potential wise, that they dont temper that expectation with external factors. The better people think their team is the less urgency, and objectivity they display. Sometimes its good, and other times its not...I remember earlier in this season I offered Michael Bush to a team whose RB's were ADP, FJax, McFadden, and Stewart....and one thing I always tell people when it comes to handcuffs is this...... I rank backup RB's....and in this case MBush is one of the most talented and valuable handcuffs in football....and or a McFadden owner having MBush nearly guarantees them at least one quality RB at all times just in case. They didnt listen, and now you can imagine what happened.....I ended up trading Bush away for cheap to another team not too much later....but this owner who didnt listen to me (who had a solid regular season, and is now limping into the playoffs) is probably kicking themselves right now because at the time they felt their RB's were too good to have to listen to what I had to say.

You never have full control of anything....but you can at least control the positions you put yourself in.

[Guppy CEO]

in a h2h league, i'd call it 90% luck. WHAT!!?!? thats crazy talk. but year in and out, the playoff teams are not the ones that scored the most, but are the ones with the least points scored against. this season, the 5 remaining teams fighting for the 4 playoff spots are also by fr the 5 teams with the lowest PA. since we cannot control

alot of so-called bad luck is actually just bad management. the rule in FF seems to be that "you ALWAYS start your studs". then when the stud has a bad matchup, and a predictably bad game, people call it bad luck. i think that people need to worry less about names, and more about the numbers. people will jump on the bandwagon of a player who gets some fluke plays and scores big w/o looking at how fluky the plays were. other players that put up decent consistent numbers get no love at all. last season, i used woodhead and caddy as my flex multiple times and they averaged about 10 points a game for those games. if you dont know how to work the trades, and/or ww, then most bad luck isnt actual luck, but poor managing. also, teams do not respect depth. unless you have a tiny roster, teams should be able to absorb 2 or 3 injuries a season, because its gonna happen. and pay more attention to defenses and kickers. you you know how to spot good matchups, you can gain lots of "free" points that way vs sticking with the same ones every week of the season.

as us guppies say, "dont be afraid to bench your studs" if the matchup is bad.

[standard_variance]

the rule in FF seems to be that "you ALWAYS start your studs". then when the stud has a bad matchup, and a predictably bad game, people call it bad luck.

Been saying this for years. Gotta know when to trade/bench your studs.

[VFaiola]

true, championship teams are not put together thru the draft, they are built thru constant monitoring of free agents and how savy you are making your waiver selections

But in an active league, those owners are going to be just as savvy as you are. Everyone's playing with the same set of sleepers. This isn't 1985 where you're only source of information is your VHS copy of Monday Night Football and The Sporting News. Now, you just go over to same sites that everyone else is using and find the next sleeper. And if you're jumping the gun on potential sleepers for stash....whether they hit is often based on luck.

Picking up Kevin Smith after his huge game is lucky because you'll have to have lucked into the top waiver spot at just the right time in an active league.

Picking up Kevin Smith BEFORE his huge game is lucky because Kevin Smith could have just as easily gone the way of Keiland Williams.

It's mostly luck, guys.

[lic217]

This is my first year in a dynasty league. I did not do to good this year. So I wont speak too much about that.

However in redraft/keepers i have won money every year for the last 6. I usually play in a few leagues and the site I play on takes a cut, which makes wining money more of an achievement. I believe it is 70% skill. First you must truly understand the implication of the scoring and roster requirements of the league. You would be shocked how many people do not account for this. You need to know what kind of lineup it will take to win. You have to make adjustments for your league and draft accordingly.

This year in particular I drafted Charles, R. Jennings, and R. Williams in 3 out of four leagues I am in (not all in the same ones). I drafted Manning and best in one as well. thankfully we use waiver bidding for free agents which allows someone to sort of make up for it. As it stands now I am in the playoffs in two of the leagues and have a chance at another despite "bad luck". The strange thing is the team with the "strongest starting lineup is actually the one that definitely will not make it to the playoffs.
In one of the leagues I lost Best, Charles, Manning, R. Williams, and R. Jennings. I am still going to make the playoffs. What helped me though is it is a 12 team league with small benches so I could rely utilize waivers (currently 7-5)
In leagues with shallow rosters/benches I think luck plays a larger role (65%).
In larger leagues it is lower (40%).

If you have "skill" (probably should use the word knowledge instead) you should win more often then not, but of course you cant rule out luck.
Its like poker. An expert might loose some nights, but wins more then he looses. A good fantasy player wins more then he looses.
Great question.

[VFaiola]

If you have "skill" (probably should use the word knowledge instead) you should win more often then not, but of course you cant rule out luck.

I consider active leagues to be ones where everyone has the 'skill' you describe.

How would you define 'active' owner?

[lic217]

If you have "skill" (probably should use the word knowledge instead) you should win more often then not, but of course you cant rule out luck.

I consider active leagues to be ones where everyone has the 'skill' you describe.

How would you define 'active' owner?

I guess an active owner is one that tries to acquire current knowledge about players and spends time each week making bids, working free agents, trying to make trades.

I think that the point you are making is correct. The main skill in fantasy would be utilizing the knowledge you have to make good decisions based on the league you are in and the team you have (knowing when to trade and how much too bid on certain players). Example knowing that Laurent Robinson has skills if healthy and as soon as Austin or Dez gets injured pick him up. Some people might wait like the k. smith example above.