Your Safest Bet Remains a 1st Round TE

[murphysxm]

If a TE catches a TD they probably get a weekly top 12 finish, just don't think that is a bar I want to set to evaluate TE security.

[Jigga94]

I looked at Top 12 finishes for TE (PPR) over the last 10 years. 2014-2023. 120 data points. Average is 186. Median is 175.

Count of Top 12 finishes by draft postion.
1st - 23
2nd - 34
3rd - 32
4th - 10
5th - 6
6th - 6
UDFA - 9
Total - 120

Total Points breakout
1st - 4,155
2nd - 6,056
3rd - 6,434
4th - 1,649
5th - 1,321
6th - 1,283
UDFA - 1,480
Total - 22,378

1st rounders with 2+ Top-12 finishes (7): Engram, Hock, Njoku, Olsen, Fant, Ben Watson, Kyle Pitts.
There are (22) other TE with multiple top 12 finishes in the past 10 years.

TE with 4 or more Top-12 finishes: Kelce, Ertz, Gronk, Kittle, Witten, Graham, Andrews, Schultz, Walker. None of these were 1st rounders, but Hock, Engram, and Njoku are all active with 3.


Top-3 TE Finishes past 10 years
1st - 3
2nd - 7
3rd - 11
4th - 2
5th - 3
6th - 3
UDFA - 1
Total - 30

Kelce, Gronk, Kittle, Ertz, Waller are the only TE with multiple Top-3 finishes. Again, no 1st rounders, but Hock has 1 and could get another. Doubt Engram hits top-3 again.

Distribution of the top 50 TE seasons past 10 years
1st - 10
2nd - 10
3rd - 18
4th - 1
5th - 6
6th - 4
UDFA - 1
Total - 50

Top 20 TE Seasons past 10 years

Yr - Name : PPR < Draft Rd >
22 - Kelce : 316 < 3 >
20 - Kelce : 313 < 3 >
21 - Mandrews : 301 < 3 >
18 - Kelce : 295 < 3 >
18 - Ertz : 280 < 2 >
20 - Waller : 279 < 6 >
14 - Gronk : 266 < 2 >
21 - Kelce : 263 < 3 >
18 - Kittle : 259 < 5 >
15 - Gronk : 256 < 2 >
19 - Kelce : 254 < 3 >
15 - Walker : 244 < 6 >
15 - Reed : 244 < 3 >
23 - Laporta : 239 < 2 >
15 - Barnidge : 237 < 5 >
17 - Kelce : 234 < 3 >
14 - Graham : 230 < 3 >
23 - Engram : 230 < 1 >
15 - Olsen : 227 < 1 >
17 - Gronk : 227 < 2 >

[wickerkat1212]

There's also a huge drop-off at some positions. There are (I believe) fewer TEs performing at a high rate vs. QBs. And there are usually a few TEs that are significantly above the rest. You can find QBs (look at Flacco, what a crazy story).

[Jigga94]

There's also a huge drop-off at some positions. There are (I believe) fewer TEs performing at a high rate vs. QBs. And there are usually a few TEs that are significantly above the rest. You can find QBs (look at Flacco, what a crazy story).

In my experience, a fringe TE1 comes a lot cheaper than a fringe QB1 (or QB2 in SF).

Past 10 years of top 12 finishes, here is the average point differential from the TE1 to the TE2 and so forth. Once you get to the TE6 or 7, the drop off is minimal.

TE# Avg Diff
1 270 n/a
2 240 30
3 216 24
4 205 12
5 195 10
6 178 16
7 169 10
8 164 4
9 158 6
10 152 6
11 148 4
12 143 5

[wickerkat1212]

There's also a huge drop-off at some positions. There are (I believe) fewer TEs performing at a high rate vs. QBs. And there are usually a few TEs that are significantly above the rest. You can find QBs (look at Flacco, what a crazy story).

In my experience, a fringe TE1 comes a lot cheaper than a fringe QB1 (or QB2 in SF).

Past 10 years of top 12 finishes, here is the average point differential from the TE1 to the TE2 and so forth. Once you get to the TE6 or 7, the drop off is minimal.

TE# Avg Diff
1 270 n/a
2 240 30
3 216 24
4 205 12
5 195 10
6 178 16
7 169 10
8 164 4
9 158 6
10 152 6
11 148 4
12 143 5

There are fewer elite TEs so to me that makes them more valuable. You usually have 3 or so elite TEs that are above the rest, and then a few good ones, and then a lot of crap. QBs you can find everywhere IMO. Yes, there are a few elite QBs but there are also a lot of great QBs that are only a few points less per week.

[Jigga94]

There's also a huge drop-off at some positions. There are (I believe) fewer TEs performing at a high rate vs. QBs. And there are usually a few TEs that are significantly above the rest. You can find QBs (look at Flacco, what a crazy story).

In my experience, a fringe TE1 comes a lot cheaper than a fringe QB1 (or QB2 in SF).

Past 10 years of top 12 finishes, here is the average point differential from the TE1 to the TE2 and so forth. Once you get to the TE6 or 7, the drop off is minimal.

TE# Avg Diff
1 270 n/a
2 240 30
3 216 24
4 205 12
5 195 10
6 178 16
7 169 10
8 164 4
9 158 6
10 152 6
11 148 4
12 143 5

There are fewer elite TEs so to me that makes them more valuable. You usually have 3 or so elite TEs that are above the rest, and then a few good ones, and then a lot of crap. QBs you can find everywhere IMO. Yes, there are a few elite QBs but there are also a lot of great QBs that are only a few points less per week.

Yeah top tier players are always more valuable, regardless of position. If you look at QB, you will find similar numbers, but QBs score at a much higher rate. Sure, you can find a QB who averages 14 PPG easier than a TE though, but that isn't the point

[wickerkat1212]

In my experience, a fringe TE1 comes a lot cheaper than a fringe QB1 (or QB2 in SF).

Past 10 years of top 12 finishes, here is the average point differential from the TE1 to the TE2 and so forth. Once you get to the TE6 or 7, the drop off is minimal.

TE# Avg Diff
1 270 n/a
2 240 30
3 216 24
4 205 12
5 195 10
6 178 16
7 169 10
8 164 4
9 158 6
10 152 6
11 148 4
12 143 5

There are fewer elite TEs so to me that makes them more valuable. You usually have 3 or so elite TEs that are above the rest, and then a few good ones, and then a lot of crap. QBs you can find everywhere IMO. Yes, there are a few elite QBs but there are also a lot of great QBs that are only a few points less per week.

Yeah top tier players are always more valuable, regardless of position. If you look at QB, you will find similar numbers, but QBs score at a much higher rate. Sure, you can find a QB who averages 14 PPG easier than a TE though, but that isn't the point

But we're not comparing a TE with 14 PPG vs a QB that averages 14 PPG—we're looking at ALL of the TEs and QBs within their positions to see where you can find value. For MANY years now if you didn't have Kelce, or Kittle, or Hock (or whoever) you had to look at the second tier. There were a lot of decent TEs and then it all fell off a cliff. QBs, it seems like there are more QBs in the elite tier, and the next tier down. Look at Mahomes this year. Was seen as super special and elite, finished as QB7, QB11 if you just go by average weekly points.

[Jigga94]

There are fewer elite TEs so to me that makes them more valuable. You usually have 3 or so elite TEs that are above the rest, and then a few good ones, and then a lot of crap. QBs you can find everywhere IMO. Yes, there are a few elite QBs but there are also a lot of great QBs that are only a few points less per week.

Yeah top tier players are always more valuable, regardless of position. If you look at QB, you will find similar numbers, but QBs score at a much higher rate. Sure, you can find a QB who averages 14 PPG easier than a TE though, but that isn't the point

But we're not comparing a TE with 14 PPG vs a QB that averages 14 PPG—we're looking at ALL of the TEs and QBs within their positions to see where you can find value. For MANY years now if you didn't have Kelce, or Kittle, or Hock (or whoever) you had to look at the second tier. There were a lot of decent TEs and then it all fell off a cliff. QBs, it seems like there are more QBs in the elite tier, and the next tier down. Look at Mahomes this year. Was seen as super special and elite, finished as QB7, QB11 if you just go by average weekly points.

Yes I know. And I am saying the Elite QB tier is similarly large as the Elite TE tier. Literally every position has a drop off from the elite tier to the very good tier and then it slowly trails off from there. Elite talents are worth paying up for, if you can. However, you have to understand that the difference in top tier TE is smaller than the difference of other positions. TE also score less overall. If you had to punt a position in fantasy while building a team, it should be TE. Not to mention the whole premise of this thread was that 1st round TE are "safe", however, they cost more and don't typically outproduce the day 2 TE at all. Look at my post above with all the data on Top 12 and Top 3 TE finishes

In terms of ppg, the difference between the #1 and #12 at their positions

QB: 6
RB: 9
WR: 7
TE: 4.5

The difference in #1 and #24
QB: 8
RB: 12
WR: 10
TE: 7.7

Or maybe more importantly, the difference between #1 and #6 at their positions
QB: 4.3
RB: 7.4
WR: 6.1
TE: 1.9

[Mike11]

This all seems like the argument for drafting Bowers. If you played in a 1TE league, how many TEs would you own and safely not take Bowers?

Laporta, Hockenson, McBride, Kincaid based on age and trajectory, Kelce, Kittle, Andrews based on production more than age. Maybe Pitts?

[Jigga94]

This all seems like the argument for drafting Bowers. If you played in a 1TE league, how many TEs would you own and safely not take Bowers?

Laporta, Hockenson, McBride, Kincaid based on age and trajectory, Kelce, Kittle, Andrews based on production more than age. Maybe Pitts?

Always draft BPA. If you think Bowers can deliver elite TE seasons, then he should be drafted as such. I wouldn't let owning Kelce, Kittle, etc keep you from drafting Bowers if he falls.

[Orenthal Shames]

So to wrap this all up, drafting a first round TE is your best bet to ensure a safe floor at the lowest scoring position with no correlation to elite production.

Got it. Moving on

[Jigga94]

So to wrap this all up, drafting a first round TE is your best bet to ensure a safe floor at the lowest scoring position with no correlation to elite production.

Got it. Moving on

[Mike11]

This all seems like the argument for drafting Bowers. If you played in a 1TE league, how many TEs would you own and safely not take Bowers?

Laporta, Hockenson, McBride, Kincaid based on age and trajectory, Kelce, Kittle, Andrews based on production more than age. Maybe Pitts?

Always draft BPA. If you think Bowers can deliver elite TE seasons, then he should be drafted as such. I wouldn't let owning Kelce, Kittle, etc keep you from drafting Bowers if he falls.

I don't think I want the trouble of owning someone from the first 5 I mentioned and Bowers. It's generally been pretty clear you can't flip the "young elite TE" for equitable WR/RB value. If you took Laporta as a piece idk if it even gets you in the door without a major addition for Lamb, Chase, JJ, Wilson, Olave, Puka, ARSB, AJB. Unless you have like 2 TE PPR Bonus.

I think trying to figure out where that cutoff is has merit.

[Jigga94]

This all seems like the argument for drafting Bowers. If you played in a 1TE league, how many TEs would you own and safely not take Bowers?

Laporta, Hockenson, McBride, Kincaid based on age and trajectory, Kelce, Kittle, Andrews based on production more than age. Maybe Pitts?

Always draft BPA. If you think Bowers can deliver elite TE seasons, then he should be drafted as such. I wouldn't let owning Kelce, Kittle, etc keep you from drafting Bowers if he falls.

I don't think I want the trouble of owning someone from the first 5 I mentioned and Bowers. It's generally been pretty clear you can't flip the "young elite TE" for equitable WR/RB value. If you took Laporta as a piece idk if it even gets you in the door without a major addition for Lamb, Chase, JJ, Wilson, Olave, Puka, ARSB, AJB. Unless you have like 2 TE PPR Bonus.

I think trying to figure out where that cutoff is has merit.

Well yeah, TE score less and are valued less than other positions so it makes sense to me that you can't get the WR1 for the TE1.

Drafting for need over BPA is a different story, but most have Bowers inside the Top 3 for 1QB and Top 5 for SF.

[Mike11]

Always draft BPA. If you think Bowers can deliver elite TE seasons, then he should be drafted as such. I wouldn't let owning Kelce, Kittle, etc keep you from drafting Bowers if he falls.

I don't think I want the trouble of owning someone from the first 5 I mentioned and Bowers. It's generally been pretty clear you can't flip the "young elite TE" for equitable WR/RB value. If you took Laporta as a piece idk if it even gets you in the door without a major addition for Lamb, Chase, JJ, Wilson, Olave, Puka, ARSB, AJB. Unless you have like 2 TE PPR Bonus.

I think trying to figure out where that cutoff is has merit.

Well yeah, TE score less and are valued less than other positions so it makes sense to me that you can't get the WR1 for the TE1.

Drafting for need over BPA is a different story, but most have Bowers inside the Top 3 for 1QB and Top 5 for SF.

I think the interesting spot will be after MHJ and Nabers - if Odunze has a shot to go top 12 in real life that positions him to have a shot at the Wilson/Olave tier. So my point is more all things being equal even if Bowers is Laporta 2.0 I think a lot of people would still rather have Wilson and Olave. Maybe the tier one JJ/Lamb/Chase are irrelevant to this comparison.