Still riding that train. If all I can get is a late second or early third, then I'm going to hope/pray for the classic 3rd year breakout that is statistically still possible (about 18% though that data is a little outdated) with a prospect that I had tremendous faith in as opposed to a random late 2nd. According to the Atlantic, generally speaking, you have a 25% chance of getting a Stud or Starter with a second round rookie selection. Assuming that is consistent for the entire round and can't be further broken down by early, mid, or late 2nd then I'm essentially reducing my odds by 7%. I'm okay with assuming that risk.yinzername wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:42 pmI’m sure that’s a bit of hyperbole, but that’s dangerous thinking. I’m not saying u should take any 2nd you can get and run, but you should def stay flexible. If you have three shares and someone offered you a very early 2nd, you wouldn’t consider moving off at least that one share? Even just to mitigate some risk across your squads?Menace2010 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 4:25 pm I'm riding the JSN train straight into the abyss if all I can get is a 2nd. I loved his profile and gametape. His NFL gametape looked quite good, even if his stats didn't meet the thresholds we'd hoped. I own him in 3 leagues, and if the going rate is a 2nd, I'll own him in more before next season kicks off...
Hypothetically, if he stays same or gets worse through the end of next year, would you still ride that right into the ground, or would you take any late 2nd/early 3rd you could get at that point?
And, while I appreciate the revisionist history, JSN was considered a far superior college prospect to Odunze. Comparing their college profiles today, analytically, I'd still take JSN (if that was the only piece of the puzzle). That perspective shifted after JSN didn't hit the ground running in the NFL, and Odunze had a tremendous senior season. And I still want a junior who hit the thresholds (as JSN did) over Odunze, hence my preference of Nabers in this year's draft.