Black Monday 2024 & Offseason Coaching Changes

[Menace2010]

I'm riding the JSN train straight into the abyss if all I can get is a 2nd. I loved his profile and gametape. His NFL gametape looked quite good, even if his stats didn't meet the thresholds we'd hoped. I own him in 3 leagues, and if the going rate is a 2nd, I'll own him in more before next season kicks off...

I’m sure that’s a bit of hyperbole, but that’s dangerous thinking. I’m not saying u should take any 2nd you can get and run, but you should def stay flexible. If you have three shares and someone offered you a very early 2nd, you wouldn’t consider moving off at least that one share? Even just to mitigate some risk across your squads?

Hypothetically, if he stays same or gets worse through the end of next year, would you still ride that right into the ground, or would you take any late 2nd/early 3rd you could get at that point?

Still riding that train. If all I can get is a late second or early third, then I'm going to hope/pray for the classic 3rd year breakout that is statistically still possible (about 18% though that data is a little outdated) with a prospect that I had tremendous faith in as opposed to a random late 2nd. According to the Atlantic, generally speaking, you have a 25% chance of getting a Stud or Starter with a second round rookie selection. Assuming that is consistent for the entire round and can't be further broken down by early, mid, or late 2nd then I'm essentially reducing my odds by 7%. I'm okay with assuming that risk.

And, while I appreciate the revisionist history, JSN was considered a far superior college prospect to Odunze. Comparing their college profiles today, analytically, I'd still take JSN (if that was the only piece of the puzzle). That perspective shifted after JSN didn't hit the ground running in the NFL, and Odunze had a tremendous senior season. And I still want a junior who hit the thresholds (as JSN did) over Odunze, hence my preference of Nabers in this year's draft.

[CGW]

I'm riding the JSN train straight into the abyss if all I can get is a 2nd. I loved his profile and gametape. His NFL gametape looked quite good, even if his stats didn't meet the thresholds we'd hoped. I own him in 3 leagues, and if the going rate is a 2nd, I'll own him in more before next season kicks off...

I’m sure that’s a bit of hyperbole, but that’s dangerous thinking. I’m not saying u should take any 2nd you can get and run, but you should def stay flexible. If you have three shares and someone offered you a very early 2nd, you wouldn’t consider moving off at least that one share? Even just to mitigate some risk across your squads?

Hypothetically, if he stays same or gets worse through the end of next year, would you still ride that right into the ground, or would you take any late 2nd/early 3rd you could get at that point?

In a SF, there's really no reason to take a 2nd for JSN. In all my leagues I've had offers for him for owners who are still willing to pay considerably more. A few JSN trades this off-season in my SF leagues:

JSN for Andrews
JSN for 1.09, 2025 2nd
JSN for Rice, 2025 3rd
JSN, Reed for Puka

Point is, if you dont want to hold as an owner, there will be plenty of opportunity to pivot....no need to sell for a 2nd.

[Bronco Billy]

I'm riding the JSN train straight into the abyss if all I can get is a 2nd. I loved his profile and gametape. His NFL gametape looked quite good, even if his stats didn't meet the thresholds we'd hoped. I own him in 3 leagues, and if the going rate is a 2nd, I'll own him in more before next season kicks off...

I’m sure that’s a bit of hyperbole, but that’s dangerous thinking. I’m not saying u should take any 2nd you can get and run, but you should def stay flexible. If you have three shares and someone offered you a very early 2nd, you wouldn’t consider moving off at least that one share? Even just to mitigate some risk across your squads?

Hypothetically, if he stays same or gets worse through the end of next year, would you still ride that right into the ground, or would you take any late 2nd/early 3rd you could get at that point?

In a SF, there's really no reason to take a 2nd for JSN. In all my leagues I've had offers for him for owners who are still willing to pay considerably more. A few JSN trades this off-season in my SF leagues:

JSN for Andrews
JSN for 1.09, 2025 2nd
JSN for Rice, 2025 3rd
JSN, Reed for Puka

Point is, if you dont want to hold as an owner, there will be plenty of opportunity to pivot....no need to sell for a 2nd.

I agree. You can most probably find owners who will fall into the draft capital/college production fallacy and offer up a 1st and maybe more for him.

[yinzername]

I'm riding the JSN train straight into the abyss if all I can get is a 2nd. I loved his profile and gametape. His NFL gametape looked quite good, even if his stats didn't meet the thresholds we'd hoped. I own him in 3 leagues, and if the going rate is a 2nd, I'll own him in more before next season kicks off...

I’m sure that’s a bit of hyperbole, but that’s dangerous thinking. I’m not saying u should take any 2nd you can get and run, but you should def stay flexible. If you have three shares and someone offered you a very early 2nd, you wouldn’t consider moving off at least that one share? Even just to mitigate some risk across your squads?

Hypothetically, if he stays same or gets worse through the end of next year, would you still ride that right into the ground, or would you take any late 2nd/early 3rd you could get at that point?

Still riding that train. If all I can get is a late second or early third, then I'm going to hope/pray for the classic 3rd year breakout that is statistically still possible (about 18% though that data is a little outdated) with a prospect that I had tremendous faith in as opposed to a random late 2nd. According to the Atlantic, generally speaking, you have a 25% chance of getting a Stud or Starter with a second round rookie selection. Assuming that is consistent for the entire round and can't be further broken down by early, mid, or late 2nd then I'm essentially reducing my odds by 7%. I'm okay with assuming that risk.

And, while I appreciate the revisionist history, JSN was considered a far superior college prospect to Odunze. Comparing their college profiles today, analytically, I'd still take JSN (if that was the only piece of the puzzle). That perspective shifted after JSN didn't hit the ground running in the NFL, and Odunze had a tremendous senior season. And I still want a junior who hit the thresholds (as JSN did) over Odunze, hence my preference of Nabers in this year's draft.

I can appreciate this, particularly the statistical outcome breakdown, very thoughtful and helpful. I'm probably taking any pick up to about the 2.07 right now, if I had a JSN share. and if someone is coming to me for him, I'm def gonna squeeze as hard as I can, but at the end of the day, I'd still be inclined to take the out. it one of those things where, for me personally, I'd feel better missing on the production than eating the L, simply because I do have the concerns and I'd hate to tell myself "i told you so". I do hope for the best for the kid and all the holders

[yinzername]

I’m sure that’s a bit of hyperbole, but that’s dangerous thinking. I’m not saying u should take any 2nd you can get and run, but you should def stay flexible. If you have three shares and someone offered you a very early 2nd, you wouldn’t consider moving off at least that one share? Even just to mitigate some risk across your squads?

Hypothetically, if he stays same or gets worse through the end of next year, would you still ride that right into the ground, or would you take any late 2nd/early 3rd you could get at that point?

In a SF, there's really no reason to take a 2nd for JSN. In all my leagues I've had offers for him for owners who are still willing to pay considerably more. A few JSN trades this off-season in my SF leagues:

JSN for Andrews
JSN for 1.09, 2025 2nd
JSN for Rice, 2025 3rd
JSN, Reed for Puka

Point is, if you dont want to hold as an owner, there will be plenty of opportunity to pivot....no need to sell for a 2nd.

I agree. You most probably find owners who will fall into the draft capital/college production fallacy and offer up a 1st and maybe more for him.

i get this, and I agree. I would take the other side of everyone of those trades and be psyched I got out for those, some feel like unbelievable wins; a 1st and a 2nd all day! the package for Puka, let's go!!

See my post above, I want out and I have a floor value for him, but I know the market is gonna pay more than my value. I'm getting out high now and squeezing every ounce of value I can get. if he goes off, everyone wins in the trade and I'm good with that. of course I have no shares, just discussion and thoughts on process for me. I appreciate all the thoughtful input from everyone

[Anteaters]

JSN for Rice, 2025 3rd
JSN, Reed for Puka

Those two seem completely crazy to me.

[CGW]

JSN for Rice, 2025 3rd
JSN, Reed for Puka

Those two seem completely crazy to me.

Even crazier would be someone trading JSN for a 2nd

[ThirdWW]

As a Pitts owner, this is news I like to see…

https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/footb ... 75105e0000

[mild]

NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo reports the Seahawks are hiring Rams pass game specialist Jake Peetz as their passing game coordinator.

Peetz is a former offensive coordinator at LSU and was on the Buccaneers’ radar to fill the offensive coordinator vacated by Dave Canales, but now he’ll get a chance to work alongside newly-minted offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. Peetz has spent the last two seasons working as the Rams’ pass game specialist and also has experience as a quarterbacks coach dating back to his time with the Panthers (2020) and at LSU.

Love this for JSN.

Bring on those Cooper Kupp / Puka middle-of-the-field targets.

[wickerkat1212]

NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo reports the Seahawks are hiring Rams pass game specialist Jake Peetz as their passing game coordinator.

Peetz is a former offensive coordinator at LSU and was on the Buccaneers’ radar to fill the offensive coordinator vacated by Dave Canales, but now he’ll get a chance to work alongside newly-minted offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. Peetz has spent the last two seasons working as the Rams’ pass game specialist and also has experience as a quarterbacks coach dating back to his time with the Panthers (2020) and at LSU.

Love this for JSN.

Bring on those Cooper Kupp / Puka middle-of-the-field targets.

I like it. Now they just need to move Lockett.

[mild]

I like it. Now they just need to move Lockett.

Even if they don't, I'm not really worried. I'm not scared of an age-32 season WR who is clearly on the decline.

If JSN doesn't ascend this year I don't think it'll be because Lockett blocked him from doing so.

[wickerkat1212]

I like it. Now they just need to move Lockett.

Even if they don't, I'm not really worried. I'm not scared of an age-32 season WR who is clearly on the decline.

If JSN doesn't ascend this year I don't think it'll be because Lockett blocked him from doing so.

True. Good point.

[Shoreline Steamers]

I like it. Now they just need to move Lockett.

Even if they don't, I'm not really worried. I'm not scared of an age-32 season WR who is clearly on the decline.

If JSN doesn't ascend this year I don't think it'll be because Lockett blocked him from doing so.

True. Good point.

It's true there's a lot of youth and inexperience for the specific roles many of the coaches are now filling in Seattle. But I am very excited about the direction John Schneider has taken the team this offseason. It's always possible this approach and personnel don't work out, but it's also possible they could be building something good that could endure for many years to come.

I'd rather see the organization taking this approach, in lieu of hiring some been-there-done-that retread just because it feels "safe".

As for JSN, I've already stated elsewhere I'm expecting a much better season in 2024 while Lockett takes more of a backseat. We'll see. Agreed that if he doesn't break out, it won't be due to Lockett stealing his thunder. I'd also add that it's not a certainty Geno is the starting QB this coming season. It's being widely reported as such, but the reality is that all Seattle did was guarantee his $12.7-mil base salary. He can still be traded by March 18th, after which he gets his roughly $9-mil roster bonus.

His salary isn't terribly high by QB standards, so a needy team might be willing to make a trade to use him as a bridge. We'll see. I also wouldn't be shocked to see Seattle trade down in the draft from 16 to add some extra capital. Wild guess here, but if they did so, it wouldn't surprise me to see them take Penix late in the 1st round to guarantee a 5th-year option. And certainly he's a player that Ryan Grubb is familiar building an offense around. Not opining that would be the right/best approach, mostly just a hunch...

[wickerkat1212]

Even if they don't, I'm not really worried. I'm not scared of an age-32 season WR who is clearly on the decline.

If JSN doesn't ascend this year I don't think it'll be because Lockett blocked him from doing so.

True. Good point.

It's true there's a lot of youth and inexperience for the specific roles many of the coaches are now filling in Seattle. But I am very excited about the direction John Schneider has taken the team this offseason. It's always possible this approach and personnel don't work out, but it's also possible they could be building something good that could endure for many years to come.

I'd rather see the organization taking this approach, in lieu of hiring some been-there-done-that retread just because it feels "safe".

As for JSN, I've already stated elsewhere I'm expecting a much better season in 2024 while Lockett takes more of a backseat. We'll see. Agreed that if he doesn't break out, it won't be due to Lockett stealing his thunder. I'd also add that it's not a certainty Geno is the starting QB this coming season. It's being widely reported as such, but the reality is that all Seattle did was guarantee his $12.7-mil base salary. He can still be traded by March 18th, after which he gets his roughly $9-mil roster bonus.

His salary isn't terribly high by QB standards, so a needy team might be willing to make a trade to use him as a bridge. We'll see. I also wouldn't be shocked to see Seattle trade down in the draft from 16 to add some extra capital. Wild guess here, but if they did so, it wouldn't surprise me to see them take Penix late in the 1st round to guarantee a 5th-year option. And certainly he's a player that Ryan Grubb is familiar building an offense around. Not opining that would be the right/best approach, mostly just a hunch...

They seem like a team that could stay there and take somebody like JJM and let him learn behind Geno.

[Shoreline Steamers]

They seem like a team that could stay there and take somebody like JJM and let him learn behind Geno.

They very well may stand pat and draft too. Other options I've heard discussed besides QB are either Defensive or Offensive Line. They could use the help in both those areas too, so it would make sense.