Offseason Shopping List

[BellCow]

Patrick Mahomes - Buy window opening? Worst season of his career, I assume most know better than to panic but...

Kyler Murray - Starting to look like a difference maker again

Derrick Henry (contenders only) - Dallas or Baltimore landing spot? Cheap enough to make an anticipatory move

Drake London - Has shown enough upside to continue buying

Keenan Allen (contenders only) - Left a bad taste in the mouths of many contending owners, however.. he remains the cheapest injection of difference-making production on the market

[Sriracha]

Lawrence has had stretches of QB1 production. He could fizzle out and end up like Carr but his peripherals didn't really decline much this year (PFF passing grade, big time throws, etc) and he was near top of the league in dropped balls

And I'm saying Bryce's rookie year isn't comparable to Rosen's not because of the rookie numbers but because Bryce the prospect isn't comparable to Rosen the prospect.

Bad prospects having bad rookie years means it's over. Premium prospects having bad rookie years certainly isn't good but they end up working out regardless often enough

Via pro football reference the Jaguars are credited with 25 drops on the season -- 13th worst in the NFL; so not really all that egregicious.

I think that's the point with T-Law for me. This is his 3rd year as a starter. He's played a lot of football and doesn't have nearly as bad of a supporting cast as you're implying. I just think this is what he is at this point; a good QB that is erratic at times and careless with the footall. Some of his fumbles are downright embarassing.

He'll be a starter for a long time but I don't see the elite ceiling his price would imply. On KTC I'd take the entire tier of QBs after him aside from Fields.

As for Rosen vs Bryce I don't think they were all that different as far as prospects. Rosen was a top 10 pick and Daniel Jeremiah graded them both out as Year 1 starters. If you see Bryce as a significantly better QB prospect you probably didn't ding him for his size as much as you probably should have.

[Jigga94]

Funny seeing Mahomes in here. I toy with the idea of moving him for a haul every offseason. Then quickly after receiving lowball offers, I am reminded why I never move him. Can only imagine the lowball offers will be worse after this season.

[BellCow]

Funny seeing Mahomes in here. I toy with the idea of moving him for a haul every offseason. Then quickly after receiving lowball offers, I am reminded why I never move him. Can only imagine the lowball offers will be worse after this season.

It is funny, a guy in one of my leagues who I consider pretty sharp traded Stroud during the season while also having Mahomes (1QB). He says he wishes he kept Stroud over Mahomes...

[Menace2010]

His championship game performance (lowest of the season) likely cost a lot of people a title. I lost by less than 2pts, and would have won if I'd started Browning or Geno or if he'd thrown just one more TD. That stings and likely leaves a sour taste in every owner's mouth.

Don't think you can land him cheap, but could potentially be had.

[StripesOfKC]

Yeah Rudolph might be starting again next year in Pittsburgh

And...it doesn't sound like the worst thing ever?

Maybe I'm overreacting

[Jigga94]

Yeah Rudolph might be starting again next year in Pittsburgh

And...it doesn't sound like the worst thing ever?

Maybe I'm overreacting

Idk... I was laughing a week ago when Pitt fans started talking positively about him. But he hasn't looked as bad as Pickett either, so it's possible. One of my random stashes that I expect nothing from but maybe?

[Shoreline Steamers]

Yeah Rudolph might be starting again next year in Pittsburgh

And...it doesn't sound like the worst thing ever?

Maybe I'm overreacting

Idk... I was laughing a week ago when Pitt fans started talking positively about him. But he hasn't looked as bad as Pickett either, so it's possible. One of my random stashes that I expect nothing from but maybe?

All I know is Pickett looks like trash. Whether or not they want to try and run it back with Rudolph or not, meh. I'd prefer they don't, just because I don't think he's starting calibre QB in the league. He's just the best of what they currently roster.

That's not exciting. There's been a lot of really mediocre to poor QB play in the league this season, in part due to injury, but I'd really like to not see a repeat of this season in 2024. It's bad for the product the NFL is producing IMO.

A large part of the problem as I see it is that teams are impatient. If they spend significant capital on a QB, they expect them to be a franchise savior in their rookie season. The smart franchises are the ones who let their rookies sit and learn for a year (or more) behind a journeyman or veteran before they're expected to take the reins.

Some of the recent QB "busts" are due to players that aren't ready being thrown into the fire. Then when they fail, it's assumed that they just didn't "have it". When in reality, if they'd been afforded the chance to learn the pro game and develop behind the scenes, the eventual outcome might have been a lot different.

Teams are, and have been for some time, churning through QB's annually looking to hit on immediate success. For every Stroud, there's five or six Rosen's/David Carr's/Darnold's/Mariota's etc... who might have had a worthwhile career if they weren't expected to produce immediately.

[Shcritters]

Baker could be a good fit in PIT… but I doubt he makes it out of Tampa after what he did there this year.

[Tvols]

Yeah Rudolph might be starting again next year in Pittsburgh

And...it doesn't sound like the worst thing ever?

Maybe I'm overreacting

Idk... I was laughing a week ago when Pitt fans started talking positively about him. But he hasn't looked as bad as Pickett either, so it's possible. One of my random stashes that I expect nothing from but maybe?

All I know is Pickett looks like trash. Whether or not they want to try and run it back with Rudolph or not, meh. I'd prefer they don't, just because I don't think he's starting calibre QB in the league. He's just the best of what they currently roster.

That's not exciting. There's been a lot of really mediocre to poor QB play in the league this season, in part due to injury, but I'd really like to not see a repeat of this season in 2024. It's bad for the product the NFL is producing IMO.

A large part of the problem as I see it is that teams are impatient. If they spend significant capital on a QB, they expect them to be a franchise savior in their rookie season. The smart franchises are the ones who let their rookies sit and learn for a year (or more) behind a journeyman or veteran before they're expected to take the reins.

Some of the recent QB "busts" are due to players that aren't ready being thrown into the fire. Then when they fail, it's assumed that they just didn't "have it". When in reality, if they'd been afforded the chance to learn the pro game and develop behind the scenes, the eventual outcome might have been a lot different.

Teams are, and have been for some time, churning through QB's annually looking to hit on immediate success. For every Stroud, there's five or six Rosen's/David Carr's/Darnold's/Mariota's etc... who might have had a worthwhile career if they weren't expected to produce immediately.

very well stated

[Bronco Billy]

Yeah Rudolph might be starting again next year in Pittsburgh

And...it doesn't sound like the worst thing ever?

Maybe I'm overreacting

Idk... I was laughing a week ago when Pitt fans started talking positively about him. But he hasn't looked as bad as Pickett either, so it's possible. One of my random stashes that I expect nothing from but maybe?

All I know is Pickett looks like trash. Whether or not they want to try and run it back with Rudolph or not, meh. I'd prefer they don't, just because I don't think he's starting calibre QB in the league. He's just the best of what they currently roster.

That's not exciting. There's been a lot of really mediocre to poor QB play in the league this season, in part due to injury, but I'd really like to not see a repeat of this season in 2024. It's bad for the product the NFL is producing IMO.

A large part of the problem as I see it is that teams are impatient. If they spend significant capital on a QB, they expect them to be a franchise savior in their rookie season. The smart franchises are the ones who let their rookies sit and learn for a year (or more) behind a journeyman or veteran before they're expected to take the reins.

Some of the recent QB "busts" are due to players that aren't ready being thrown into the fire. Then when they fail, it's assumed that they just didn't "have it". When in reality, if they'd been afforded the chance to learn the pro game and develop behind the scenes, the eventual outcome might have been a lot different.

Teams are, and have been for some time, churning through QB's annually looking to hit on immediate success. For every Stroud, there's five or six Rosen's/David Carr's/Darnold's/Mariota's etc... who might have had a worthwhile career if they weren't expected to produce immediately.

I think this post is right on target, but I also think there’s a little more to it. Teams are so beholden to guys they burned high draft capital on that they just keep other guys down who could be solid starting QBs but will never get the chance unless dire chance forces coaches’ hands.

Look at Purdy being Mr Irrelevant and being forced into action when SF had no other options. Given his performance to date you can’t tell me he wasn’t outperforming Lance in practice - no way. Look at Browning being kicked to the curb by MIN - you can’t tell me he didn’t look like he had some talent to any coach with any kind of ability to assess talent when they saw him play every day in practice, yet off he goes to CIN and when forced into action looks like he fits the bill as a very credible starting QB.

When I look at O’Rourke I see the same thing in him - he’s got a very strong pro track record being prolific in the CFL and looking great in TC and PS yet he can’t get a sniff in deference to Beathard as a backup? And ATL had him on their PS and wouldn’t give him any shot despite how incredibly poor their QB play has been. Seriously difficult to figure out and especially after watching how Ridder and Beathard have performed (significantly underperformed more like) when given their chance to play in the league.

NFL teams are just wasting talent at the QB position when there are teams in serious need of even mediocre starters throughout the league and they won’t even think about changing out proven to be crappy players. I just do not get that. If your QB just flat out sucks why are you not beating the bushes for an alternative? There are clearly guys out there who fit the bill of being worthy of a chance and are just being wasted.

[StripesOfKC]

Vintage Evan Engram the "elite" tight end

[Sriracha]

Vintage Evan Engram the "elite" tight end

And just like that Engram is now 2nd all time in receptions for a TE in a single season.

TE kingmaker Trevor Lawrence doing what he does best.

[StripesOfKC]

Vintage Evan Engram the "elite" tight end

And just like that Engram is now 2nd all time in receptions for a TE in a single season.

TE kingmaker Trevor Lawrence doing what he does best.

Why do you think TE targets are signs of a bad QB?

Or do you just mean targeting a bad TE?

[Sriracha]

Vintage Evan Engram the "elite" tight end

And just like that Engram is now 2nd all time in receptions for a TE in a single season.

TE kingmaker Trevor Lawrence doing what he does best.

Why do you think TE targets are signs of a bad QB?

Or do you just mean targeting a bad TE?

I believe it signals either a limitation in your ability to get the ball to your perimeter weapons (whether that be arm strength/accuracy/ability to use anticipation to throw guys open) or a conservative nature; both of which I don't see as good signs for an elite QB.

Engram is a decent talent but he's not Travis Kelce and there were many games throughout the year where the perimeter weapons in this offense were completely ignored. You can point to Ridley having fallen off a bit since his days as a Falcon but with elite QBs they find a way to get the ball to the outside weapons regardless of who's out there. We just saw Jordan Love do it with Bo Melton fresh off the practice squad in consecutive weeks after he lost his top 2 WRs and the third weapon, Wicks 2 weeks ago and Reed last week at the half. That's not unusual for good QBs and there are plenty of other examples but that's the first that comes to mind. In the NFL the lesser known names are hardly ever as bad as people make them out to be -- these guys are all good football players or they wouldn't be here.

I lowered my expectations for Lawrence after he heavily targeted Dan freaking Arnold his rookie year