Dynasty RB Landscape - who to sell "too early"

[Prison_Mike]

I was listening to a podcast yesterday, and the old adage of "sell RBs a year too early rather than a year too late" came up. (I suppose it doesn't have to be just running backs, but it's the position the theory is most often applied to, given its high rate of turnover). The frustrating thing about that phrase to me, is that it's seemingly rarely followed by any actionable advice or relevant examples. They'll throw out examples like "Remember when Todd Gurley fell off a cliff?"

So I guess I'm curious: What RBs (or players) are you guys viewing as candidates to fall off a cliff in the very near future? For the purposes of this exercise, let's only list players that have meaningful value - (i.e. selling Zeke for a 3rd is both obvious and probably not providing anyone with meaningful profit/production). I'm more looking to identify the 2022-->2023 Dalvin Cooks (RB14-->RB69).

I'd imagine the criteria is some combination of:
A) at or approaching age apex, B) at or near (player-specific) peak production, C) uncertain future

Per KTC (I know, I know), here are all the RBs that the community collectively thinks are worth at least (1) 1st or within range of a 1st:

- Bijan, Gibbs, Hall - (Listing them together because I can't imagine anyone will make the argument that they'll fall off a cliff)
- CMC
- Achane
- ETN
- JT
- Walker
------------------------
- Kyren
- Saquon
- Jacobs
- Swift
- Pacheco
- Rachaad
- Pollard
- Kamara
- Montgomery
- J.Cook
- Ekeler
- Brian Robinson

If you were to subscribe to this adage/strategy, you should be selling just about every RB from Kyren down.

Are there players below the line that you think have legitimate staying power and should be considered holds?
Are there players above the line that you think should be part of the sell conversation?

(Hot takes are welcome)

Which of the players currently producing top-24 numbers do you expect to be obsolete in 2024? Who are your priority sells?

Top 24 (ppg): CMC, Achane, Kyren, Kamara, Mostert, ETN, Montgomery, Gibbs, Saquon, White, Mixon, Henry, Jacobs, Pacheco, Taylor, Ekeler, Pollar, Bijan, Walker, Swift, B-Rob, Hall, Moss, Cook...honorable mentions: Conner, Ford

I recognize that even THIS thread isn't super actionable given that most trade deadlines have passed lol. But players like Cook had value even in the offseason leading up to their value free-fall. So I figure there's still time to get out.

[FantasyFreak]

JT. Guy is breaking down. Target share has always been low, running QB next year, low targets, and GL vulture. He's going to be 25, and he's just had so much volume since his Freshman year. Maybe he'll have that CMC type resurgence, after a few down years, he's talented enough.

ETN. He's as old as JT. I think he's got a good year or two left, but if I can get a haul, I'd sell.

Achane: Some people have him as high as RB2. I'm selling at top 5 price. He's a fantastic fit for that scheme, and those WR's make it easy for him to have huge gaps. When I watch him get bounced around, IDK, every time, it gives me the heebie jeebies. He's been hurt a few times already, from pre-season, to twice in season. So has Kendre Miiler, granted, but I'd sell Kendre, could I get Achane value.

I just have serious doubts he can stay healthy and maintain this stuff. Mostert is going to be 32 next year, Wilson is a journeyman. The Dolphins have Tua on a rookie deal still, I expect them to add a RB in FA, since the draft is so bad, and they are a contender. I don't know who it will be, but they will be adding someone.

[FantasyFreak]

JT. Guy is breaking down. Target share has always been low, running QB next year, low targets, and GL vulture. He's going to be 25, and he's just had so much volume since his Freshman year. Maybe he'll have that CMC type resurgence, after a few down years, he's talented enough.

ETN. He's as old as JT. I think he's got a good year or two left, but if I can get a haul, I'd sell.

Achane: Some people have him as high as RB2. I'm selling at top 5 price. He's a fantastic fit for that scheme, and those WR's make it easy for him to have huge gaps. When I watch him get bounced around, IDK, every time, it gives me the heebie jeebies. He's been hurt a few times already, from pre-season, to twice in season. So has Kendre Miiler, granted, but I'd sell Kendre, could I get Achane value.

I just have serious doubts he can stay healthy and maintain this stuff. Mostert is going to be 32 next year, Wilson is a journeyman. The Dolphins have Tua on a rookie deal still, I expect them to add a RB in FA, since the draft is so bad, and they are a contender. I don't know who it will be, but they will be adding someone.

[Cameron Giles]

I'd be looking at any RB who's on the backside of their 20s.

- You should sell Ekeler, Pollard, Mixon and Kamara for whatever you can get. Pollard especially, who probably won't be in Dallas next season.
- Jacobs seems like a prime candidate for someone who's peaked in production, though I don't think you'd be selling high at this point.

Outside of them:

- Rachaad White - nothing special overall.
- James Cook - Is this the offseason the Bills bring in a RB they can gameplan around, so they aren't so Josh Allen-centric?

I think these are mostly safe plays though. RB is such a tough position, because it has the upside to win you leagues, but you can make an easy case every year to sell high on every RB. The position is so unstable and pretty much any RB can break down from injuries at any point.

[CGW]

I'm honestly to the point the past two or so years that I want to go into next season with just about no premium RBs on my roster. I'll obviously hang onto any that I don't get good returns for, but my best teams are the ones where Ive pick up cheap RBs in season and drafted 2/3rd rounders.

That said, guys I think are absolutely safe and have insulated value are Bijan, Gibbs, Hall, Achane. I think all four of these guys will see their value maintained or potentially rise as we get to next fall.

Other guys I'm holding are Kyren, Walker, Montgomery, and Pacheco. These four are relatively safe but also aren't going to bring the value I'd want to trade them off. People are still skeptical of Kyren, Walker has had injuries plus Charbs cannabilizing, and Monty/Pacheco will be perennially undervalued.

CMC I don't know what to do with. He should be the MVP this year, but won't be. At the same time, the moment I'd acquire him would be the moment he has the injury that is the beginning of the end. Strong contender hold, otherwise sell probably.

I'm pretty much shopping everyone else.

Hot takes - I'm still interested in buying charbonet and Miller if they are cheap (and they should be).

[murphysxm]

I have made a fantasy living zigging to this narrative. Everybody is so paranoid about having a guy one year too long that they will sell them way too low 3 years early.

[TheTroll]

I have made a fantasy living zigging to this narrative. Everybody is so paranoid about having a guy one year too long that they will sell them way too low 3 years early.

This is so true... Kamara, Evans, etc... Everyone wants youth and forgoing players still in their prime.

[Shcritters]

One interesting piece… there almost ZERO good RBs coming out next year. I didn’t say GREAT RBs, I said good. Things will be so slim in the draft I could see some of the older guys hanging on a little longer.

As an FYI, I just gave a mid 2nd and late 3rd for Jacobs on a contender so that I had some depth going into the playoffs. In paper he’s worth more than that, but based on league dynamics (one team trying to bottom out, not many buyers) that was the price. Feel that’s pretty reasonable for a guy who likely has 2/3 at least RB2 years left.

[lukkynumber13]

Love this post - as you said, trying to find the Dalvin Cook of the 22/23 off-season is the goal here, right?

Mixon is the obvious candidate for me (he was right there with Dalvin in the eyes of the community, during this past summer). Henry is pretty chalky as well.

Ekeler is probably a sexier name but deserves to be listed as a prime candidate for this.

CMC could be the true Gurley, tho. Come off of a string of insane production years, then become human for a year, then fall off an absolute cliff.

[TheTroll]

While the draft class lacks luster, we all know there will be RBs that come out of the wood works next year. You just have to grab 2-3 speculative RBs and wait. Actually this is what you should do every year. The key is having the roster/taxi space to keep all them on ice until their opportunity surfaces. Remember when Miller and Rochon were sexy draft picks? Both are 3rd stringers right now. Whereas people who snagged Achane in the 2nd got a pleasant gift.

[tstafford]

I'm honestly to the point the past two or so years that I want to go into next season with just about no premium RBs on my roster. I'll obviously hang onto any that I don't get good returns for, but my best teams are the ones where Ive pick up cheap RBs in season and drafted 2/3rd rounders.

This.

I think the premise of selling a year early is the wrong approach. And to OP's point, how do you really know? Todd Gurney is one thing. Derrick Henry is another. The only thing you know is when you can get a ton of value for a RB by testing the trade market. I'm selling any RB who carries a premium. This is why I argued this draft season that Bijan was a sell high and wouldn't be on any of my teams - the trade packages people were getting were silly.

I'd rather buy a RB too late for cheap and ride him in to the ground. My dynasty RB rankings are more or less my redraft RB rankings. So I want the ones where the price to production ratio is the best. That's almost certainly old guys. But I don't want to own them until I feel I am a contender at QB/WR/TE.

Practically speaking if I owned an elite RB - I want to tier down in dynasty but stay more of less on par in redraft. So next August I would trade a guy like Gibbs for CMC plus. Maybe CMC has the Kelce treatment and won't get an age discount. If that's the case, I'd tier down to Jacobs or Barkley or whatever. But I don't want to do that until I see the impact of FA and the draft. If I'm trading now, I want WRs and picks.

[Oddball456]

Team standing plays a huge role. A strong contender would be happy to have a Mixon or CMC type and ride them as long as possible. Rebuilding you don't want those guys at all.

I have Mixon on a contender and am glad I didn't sell him off. That said, this off-season I would be pretty happy to get a mid 2nd for him but I am not sure I will get any takers at that price. For a 3rd I will just hold.

[Bronco Billy]

One interesting piece… there almost ZERO good RBs coming out next year. I didn’t say GREAT RBs, I said good. Things will be so slim in the draft I could see some of the older guys hanging on a little longer.

Bold statement, but I think you’re going to be proven very wrong. There are some really solid RBs in the ‘24 draft. I’ll be a happy benefactor from this kind of group think.

[Shcritters]

One interesting piece… there almost ZERO good RBs coming out next year. I didn’t say GREAT RBs, I said good. Things will be so slim in the draft I could see some of the older guys hanging on a little longer.

Bold statement, but I think you’re going to be proven very wrong. There are some really solid RBs in the ‘24 draft. I’ll be a happy benefactor from this kind of group think.

Would love to be wrong on this one, as I’ve got the two startups below (in sig) where I punted on RB. This isn’t the thread for it, but would love to hear who you have your eye on!

25 has a number of good RB prospects, but I still hold next year is pretty slim (especially with Henderson going back to school). There are always a couple that come out of the woodwork, but many are the 2nd/3rds that were mentioned above. There are no Bijans, Gibbs, Halls this year, and only a few who are the next step down.

[Bronco Billy]

One interesting piece… there almost ZERO good RBs coming out next year. I didn’t say GREAT RBs, I said good. Things will be so slim in the draft I could see some of the older guys hanging on a little longer.

Bold statement, but I think you’re going to be proven very wrong. There are some really solid RBs in the ‘24 draft. I’ll be a happy benefactor from this kind of group think.

Would love to be wrong on this one, as I’ve got the two startups below (in sig) where I punted on RB. This isn’t the thread for it, but would love to hear who you have your eye on!

Yeah, we’ll discuss in another thread. Hoping I’m not wrong in this. I do agree that right now there doesn’t appear to be any JT/Hall level RBs - but that can always change when guys get into the pros and show traits that their college offense didn’t showcase or that their mentality tied to ability allows them to elevate their game.