Trey McBride: It’s Time to Take Notice

[KCLep20]

It also is very league dependent, where his value might be a 1st but if the league isn't willing to give that up, then that's not his value in your league. Anytime you're trading away the "proven" player for a draft pick, you're taking on more risk so it's preferred to get a higher pick than what you used to draft that player. I know that I've got McBride sitting behind Andrews so he wont start for me, but i still dont have any interest in a 2nd round pick for him as that's a crapshoot on where it is and who's going to be available. If it's the 2.01-2.03 maybe that's more interesting, but if it's too early to tell, it's likely going to take at least 2 2nd's in order to move him.

The "market" can try to set value all it wants, but it is also very dependent upon your league and how players are viewed.

[Cameron Giles]

There's a changing of the guard happening with TE this year.

- Kelce is still elite, but he's approaching mid 30s.
- Kittle is still elite, but you're not getting 2018-20 yardage from him.
- Waller is cooked.
- Ertz is cooked.

Andrews, Hockenson and Goedert represent the best of the <30 veteran TEs. Then, you have all these younger TEs like LaPorta, Kincaid, McBride, Pitts, Kmet, Ferguson and Musgrave who've flashed or broken out early at some point. Then, Brock Bowers on the way next year, who's instantly going to be Top-5 ADP positionally.

It's been a while since there's been this much upside at TE.

I wouldn't be in any rush to sell any of these TEs unless it's to level up. McBride is doing exactly what you hope, especially considering you likely didn't pay much to get him in the first place.

[Jrblaha]

Frustrating. A guy reaches out, says he really likes Trey McBride and asks what it would take to get him

I tell him a first (his will be mid to late) and a 3rd which I think is a pretty reasonable ask. He goes on a mocking spree that I'm crazy for thinking he's worth that

Like, you asked? He's a 23 year old TE who's made the leap. What more would you want if you took a TE like that with the 1.08 a past year?

A 1st still feels overpriced to me. But… it doesn’t matter if it’s overpriced, if I asked you about a player I can’t mock your value for them as clearly I’m interested

I doubt many McBride owners are looking to sell for current "fair" market value. They've seen his upside and aren't going to want to let that go for a 2nd. Selling McBride right now feels like whatever the opposite of catching a falling knife is (letting go of a rising balloon?)

I can get not wanting to let go for a second (even if that’s fair value), but idk why I’d wanna buy (overpay) for a 1st. Maybe in must start 2 TEs or huge TE premium I’d reconsider, but there’s 12+ 2024 rookies I’d rather have in a standard 1 TE league, thus I wouldn’t send a 1st.

[hoos89]

It also is very league dependent, where his value might be a 1st but if the league isn't willing to give that up, then that's not his value in your league. Anytime you're trading away the "proven" player for a draft pick, you're taking on more risk so it's preferred to get a higher pick than what you used to draft that player. I know that I've got McBride sitting behind Andrews so he wont start for me, but i still dont have any interest in a 2nd round pick for him as that's a crapshoot on where it is and who's going to be available. If it's the 2.01-2.03 maybe that's more interesting, but if it's too early to tell, it's likely going to take at least 2 2nd's in order to move him.

The "market" can try to set value all it wants, but it is also very dependent upon your league and how players are viewed.

Value exists outside of what you can get for a player. Ultimately, players' actually have an intrinsic value equal to the points they produce over replacement over the course of their careers. If I don't think the player I get with a 2nd is going to beat that then I'm not going to be inclined to move McBride for a 2nd even if nobody in my league is willing to pay a 1st. He's also quite young so it's hard to envision many owners feeling truly *forced* to sell him for a lesser pick (as might happen with e.g. Kelce). I get to set the asking price for every player on my roster, and if that ask doesn't get met then they're not going anywhere.

A 1st still feels overpriced to me. But… it doesn’t matter if it’s overpriced, if I asked you about a player I can’t mock your value for them as clearly I’m interested

I doubt many McBride owners are looking to sell for current "fair" market value. They've seen his upside and aren't going to want to let that go for a 2nd. Selling McBride right now feels like whatever the opposite of catching a falling knife is (letting go of a rising balloon?)

I can get not wanting to let go for a second (even if that’s fair value), but idk why I’d wanna buy (overpay) for a 1st. Maybe in must start 2 TEs or huge TE premium I’d reconsider, but there’s 12+ 2024 rookies I’d rather have in a standard 1 TE league, thus I wouldn’t send a 1st.

If you want him you're likely going to have to pay a 1st, and if you don't want to pay a 1st then most McBride owners will be happy to hold him. For me there are not 12 rookies I'd rather have in the upcoming draft than McBride. I paid 2.07 for him last year and now he appears to be in the middle of a breakout...why would I turn around and sell for the amount that I paid to get him in the first place?

Personally I'm looking to sell Engram for any 2nd instead of trying to move McBride...dude looks *legit*.

[Jrblaha]

I paid 2.07 for him last year and now he appears to be in the middle of a breakout...why would I turn around and sell for the amount that I paid to get him in the first place?

Personally I'm looking to sell Engram for any 2nd instead of trying to move McBride...dude looks *legit*.

Just because you overpaid at the time of purchase, doesn’t mean cashing out for the same value now via sell is a bad idea (and an super early 2nd would still be a nice increase from 2.7 depending on the draft classes). I think we fundamentally value TEs differently. In my league Trey went 3.6 and Engram has been on the block for a 1st for years and hasn’t ever been close to moving that I know of.

If you don’t have 12 rookies above Trey you absolutely should hold unless you get an early enough 1st that you like the rookie more. You won’t get a 1st from me for him, and you won’t sell him for a second, and that’s all good. Value is all subject, and although I don’t have a vested interest one way or another in Trey, I hope he works out great for ya.

[Two Cents]

I paid 2.07 for him last year and now he appears to be in the middle of a breakout...why would I turn around and sell for the amount that I paid to get him in the first place?

Personally I'm looking to sell Engram for any 2nd instead of trying to move McBride...dude looks *legit*.

Just because you overpaid at the time of purchase, doesn’t mean cashing out for the same value now via sell is a bad idea (and an super early 2nd would still be a nice increase from 2.7 depending on the draft classes). I think we fundamentally value TEs differently. In my league Trey went 3.6 and Engram has been on the block for a 1st for years and hasn’t ever been close to moving that I know of.

If you don’t have 12 rookies above Trey you absolutely should hold unless you get an early enough 1st that you like the rookie more. You won’t get a 1st from me for him, and you won’t sell him for a second, and that’s all good. Value is all subject, and although I don’t have a vested interest one way or another in Trey, I hope he works out great for ya.

How can you have 12+ rookies over McBride without knowing their situation?

Not only are you picking 12 players over McBride, but you’re picking 12 situations over McBrides too. By the end of the draft I guarantee you that about half if not more of those players will go to questionable situations. At least McBrides situation seems pretty stable in terms of gameplan. (Unlike Bijan for example)

[hoos89]

I paid 2.07 for him last year and now he appears to be in the middle of a breakout...why would I turn around and sell for the amount that I paid to get him in the first place?

Personally I'm looking to sell Engram for any 2nd instead of trying to move McBride...dude looks *legit*.

Just because you overpaid at the time of purchase, doesn’t mean cashing out for the same value now via sell is a bad idea (and an super early 2nd would still be a nice increase from 2.7 depending on the draft classes). I think we fundamentally value TEs differently. In my league Trey went 3.6 and Engram has been on the block for a 1st for years and hasn’t ever been close to moving that I know of.

If you don’t have 12 rookies above Trey you absolutely should hold unless you get an early enough 1st that you like the rookie more. You won’t get a 1st from me for him, and you won’t sell him for a second, and that’s all good. Value is all subject, and although I don’t have a vested interest one way or another in Trey, I hope he works out great for ya.

McBride was the 21st ranked rookie on mizelle last July and I took him 19th - that's hardly an overpay. It's also hard to get excited over a few spots in the 2nd round (a few years apart no less). I went back and checked the historical 13th-16th picks of the rookie drafts for the league I have McBride (i.e. early 2nds). Across the 7 rookie drafts we've had so far, 50% of those players appear to be total busts (Denzel Mims, JJAW, etc.) and maybe half of the remaining players are guys I prefer to McBride. Trading McBride for an early 2nd is taking a 50% chance that I end up with essentially nothing in return.

Engram hasn't moved because he hasn't been worth anywhere near a 1st for years and that owner is asking for way too much for him. McBride is move valuable than Engram at this point (hence I said I'd try to move Engram for any 2nd). Also if you play SF that will change pick values (I play 1 QB). I think this is less of a difference in TE valuation and more of a difference in pick valuation.

[Anteaters]

I can get not wanting to let go for a second (even if that’s fair value), but idk why I’d wanna buy (overpay) for a 1st. Maybe in must start 2 TEs or huge TE premium I’d reconsider, but there’s 12+ 2024 rookies I’d rather have in a standard 1 TE league, thus I wouldn’t send a 1st.

Totally agree.

In 1TE/nonTEP besides Kelce there is almost no other TE I'd consider trading a 1st for. Being the 5th best TE is like being the tallest midget.

[hoos89]

Well the *4th* best TE is a rookie who is currently outperforming Bijan Robinson in full PPR.

Also Hockenson has to be the #1 dynasty TE over Kelce now right? 8 years younger and not far behind in PPG most of the way through the season. I'd also easily give a 1st for Andrews, LaPorta and Kincaid (in addtion to Kelce). I wouldn't advise some random person on this board to pay a 1st for McBride today outside of TEP, but I similarly would advise anyone to hold McBride in favor of a 2nd and I personally would hesitate to pull the trigger if offered a late first. I've been wrong before but my gut says he has "it".

[Jigga94]

Well the *4th* best TE is a rookie who is currently outperforming Bijan Robinson in full PPR.

Also Hockenson has to be the #1 dynasty TE over Kelce now right? 8 years younger and not far behind in PPG most of the way through the season. I'd also easily give a 1st for Andrews, LaPorta and Kincaid (in addtion to Kelce). I wouldn't advise some random person on this board to pay a 1st for McBride today outside of TEP, but I similarly would advise anyone to hold McBride in favor of a 2nd and I personally would hesitate to pull the trigger if offered a late first. I've been wrong before but my gut says he has "it".

Yup, there are plenty of TE worth at least late 1st.

Kelce, Andrews, Hockenson have been for a few years.
Kincaid was already there this offseason.
Add in Laporta and now likely McBride rising into that value.
Pitts is still worth a 1st but that is a different convo.
Kittle and Goedert are borderline but probably closer to an early 2nd or maybe a late 1st from a contender who is thin at TE.

That is 9 TE and then there are a handful of upside guys 25 or younger that are good buys in dynasty like Kmet, Musgrave, Mayer, Ferg, Freiermuth.

Njoku, Schultz, Engram are the guys I wouldn't pay up for and would just opt for whatever TE at that point. Go get Taysom or Logan Thomas or Jonnu or Otton for cheaper.

[Jrblaha]

I paid 2.07 for him last year and now he appears to be in the middle of a breakout...why would I turn around and sell for the amount that I paid to get him in the first place?

Personally I'm looking to sell Engram for any 2nd instead of trying to move McBride...dude looks *legit*.

Just because you overpaid at the time of purchase, doesn’t mean cashing out for the same value now via sell is a bad idea (and an super early 2nd would still be a nice increase from 2.7 depending on the draft classes). I think we fundamentally value TEs differently. In my league Trey went 3.6 and Engram has been on the block for a 1st for years and hasn’t ever been close to moving that I know of.

If you don’t have 12 rookies above Trey you absolutely should hold unless you get an early enough 1st that you like the rookie more. You won’t get a 1st from me for him, and you won’t sell him for a second, and that’s all good. Value is all subject, and although I don’t have a vested interest one way or another in Trey, I hope he works out great for ya.

McBride was the 21st ranked rookie on mizelle last July and I took him 19th - that's hardly an overpay. It's also hard to get excited over a few spots in the 2nd round (a few years apart no less). I went back and checked the historical 13th-16th picks of the rookie drafts for the league I have McBride (i.e. early 2nds). Across the 7 rookie drafts we've had so far, 50% of those players appear to be total busts (Denzel Mims, JJAW, etc.) and maybe half of the remaining players are guys I prefer to McBride. Trading McBride for an early 2nd is taking a 50% chance that I end up with essentially nothing in return.

Engram hasn't moved because he hasn't been worth anywhere near a 1st for years and that owner is asking for way too much for him. McBride is move valuable than Engram at this point (hence I said I'd try to move Engram for any 2nd). Also if you play SF that will change pick values (I play 1 QB). I think this is less of a difference in TE valuation and more of a difference in pick valuation.

Again value is all subject, it was an overpay (to me, not to you) and I’m sure I can find data points that agree with me like you did with Mizelle, which actually in itself agreed with me {that data showed an overpay, albeit a tiny one}, but it’s pointless to do so, because we just disagree and it’s subjective.

I agree that league settings could also change value, I’ve said as much as well. Ant agreed with me above for 1QB, and someone agreed with you as well. Don’t think there’s anything either of us can say to change each others minds, and I’m not trying to, we won’t know who’s right until more time passes (at best, at worst we’ll never really know).

[Jrblaha]

I paid 2.07 for him last year and now he appears to be in the middle of a breakout...why would I turn around and sell for the amount that I paid to get him in the first place?

Personally I'm looking to sell Engram for any 2nd instead of trying to move McBride...dude looks *legit*.

Just because you overpaid at the time of purchase, doesn’t mean cashing out for the same value now via sell is a bad idea (and an super early 2nd would still be a nice increase from 2.7 depending on the draft classes). I think we fundamentally value TEs differently. In my league Trey went 3.6 and Engram has been on the block for a 1st for years and hasn’t ever been close to moving that I know of.

If you don’t have 12 rookies above Trey you absolutely should hold unless you get an early enough 1st that you like the rookie more. You won’t get a 1st from me for him, and you won’t sell him for a second, and that’s all good. Value is all subject, and although I don’t have a vested interest one way or another in Trey, I hope he works out great for ya.

How can you have 12+ rookies over McBride without knowing their situation?

Not only are you picking 12 players over McBride, but you’re picking 12 situations over McBrides too. By the end of the draft I guarantee you that about half if not more of those players will go to questionable situations. At least McBrides situation seems pretty stable in terms of gameplan. (Unlike Bijan for example)

I have 12 rookies above McBride without knowing their situation the same way I have MHjr ahead of most other WRs without knowing his situation. If you like stability of the known, I’m guessing you don’t move players for picks until after the nfl draft, but in many cases I’m fine doing so before the nfl draft happens/finishes.

[Jigga94]

Just because you overpaid at the time of purchase, doesn’t mean cashing out for the same value now via sell is a bad idea (and an super early 2nd would still be a nice increase from 2.7 depending on the draft classes). I think we fundamentally value TEs differently. In my league Trey went 3.6 and Engram has been on the block for a 1st for years and hasn’t ever been close to moving that I know of.

If you don’t have 12 rookies above Trey you absolutely should hold unless you get an early enough 1st that you like the rookie more. You won’t get a 1st from me for him, and you won’t sell him for a second, and that’s all good. Value is all subject, and although I don’t have a vested interest one way or another in Trey, I hope he works out great for ya.

How can you have 12+ rookies over McBride without knowing their situation?

Not only are you picking 12 players over McBride, but you’re picking 12 situations over McBrides too. By the end of the draft I guarantee you that about half if not more of those players will go to questionable situations. At least McBrides situation seems pretty stable in terms of gameplan. (Unlike Bijan for example)

I have 12 rookies above McBride without knowing their situation the same way I have MHjr ahead of most other WRs without knowing his situation. If you like stability of the known, I’m guessing you don’t move players for picks until after the nfl draft, but in many cases I’m fine doing so before the nfl draft happens/finishes.

Can I ask your top 12 2024 rookies?

[wickerkat1212]

How do you see McBride performing the rest of the year? With Kyler back is he going to be a guy we can start? I have a crazy redraft league where we can start up to three TEs and I already have Andrews and LaPorta. I'm in 1st place. Got an offer from a guy trying to move Kelce, but the guy is asking for too much. I think McBride may actually be able to contribute similar numbers, or at least ENOUGH that I shouldn't hurt my team with other moves, losing a RB3 or WR4 when I start qb-qb-rb-rb-rb-wr-wr-wr-wr-te-te-flex-k-d.

McBride is TE16 right now. Last week he was TE2. Over the last three weeks he is TE2. Last five weeks, TE5.

[Jigga94]

How do you see McBride performing the rest of the year? With Kyler back is he going to be a guy we can start? I have a crazy redraft league where we can start up to three TEs and I already have Andrews and LaPorta. I'm in 1st place. Got an offer from a guy trying to move Kelce, but the guy is asking for too much. I think McBride may actually be able to contribute similar numbers, or at least ENOUGH that I shouldn't hurt my team with other moves, losing a RB3 or WR4 when I start qb-qb-rb-rb-rb-wr-wr-wr-wr-te-te-flex-k-d.

McBride is TE16 right now. Last week he was TE2. Over the last three weeks he is TE2. Last five weeks, TE5.

I also snagged him in a redraft where I have Kelce and plan to flex him even though I am usually against starting 2 TE. I have limited options at Flex (M. Wilson, Wan'dale, trash RB) and McBride is pretty much a lock for 6+ targets. Target Quality also improves with Kyler back.

With your deeper starting requirements (especially for a redraft) I would be starting him with confidence, unless your RB4 or WR5 is somehow better...