Rookie WR Production 2023

[Bronco Billy]

Where did we land on Downs? He seems to be on the edge of good/bad/hold. I moved one share, but still have a few.

I love his production rates, but is he going to get enough opportunity with Richardson under center? If Minshew hadn’t been the QB for a greater part of the season he might have only had 50-60 targets. I just don’t see where a HC is going to rely on Richardson’s passing to lead his offense given that his job is on the line.

[Mike11]

Already said this a couple of pages back but I agree with this. Tons of super stubborn owners, I don’t like what I saw year one. He can still become good but historically he’s probably never going to be a top 10 / 15 guy which is what people paid for him to be. Hes going to be the guy that costs more than what he produces when you can have cheaper options like Pittman who actually produce. Thats where I feel like this is going because people are still mostly hoarding their JSN shares like they’re sitting on a secret pot of gold.

The market is at an impasse, anyone who doesn’t own him won’t pay the still high price it costs to get him. Don’t think a buy low exists the way some people would want to buy for the risk/cost of him.

Sometimes it's the situation. DK and Lockett were ahead of him so at best he was the third target. When Lockett moves on I think he takes over as WR2. For me, personally, I wouldn't take a 2nd round pick for him. I probably wouldn't take a late 1st for him in 1 QB either. Who am I going to take there? And he's probably not going to get a top seven pick so I'm holding. I want to give him more time. His last five games he was starting to emerge. WR45 on the year, WR32 last five games. IDK if he'll be that elite WR1 that we all though, too much up in the air, still, but I think he's a starter, with the CHANCE to become a very strong WR2, with WR1 flashes.

At least now you’re making a strong argument. Right now draft capital and college stats mean nothing. He’s got a year in the NFL under his belt. Those are moot arguments. He has a NFL resume.

I said before the draft that I projected him as a reliable midrange WR2 in FF. That has value to a FF team, if that is a close to reasonable projection that means he’s around a top 20 FF WR. So if you believe that, I have a hard time with trading that away for the 2.01 unknown rookie. As I’ve stated before more than a few times, the unreasonable expectation that anything less than drafting a FF WR1 is failure is clearly a fallacy.

It’s hard to trade him for a pick, the better move would be packaging him based on his name value and someone like say Zay/Addison to tier up. It’s easier to think of value relative to a pick but people with the picks want the hopium and new guy if it’s a first and I get why owners wouldn’t move JSN for a second.

[yinzername]

- The only TE to hit all the thresholds this season is Tucker Kraft. I think it's hard to say he should be valued over the other TE's, but I do think it makes him a strong buy as his price would be the cheapest. He's a more prototypical TE (in size) than Chig was.
- Chig didn't have the year many thought but he actually did improve from his rookie year. I think he's also a strong buy still at his price. Elite TE's typically break out in year 2 or 3, so Chig still has 1 year to go to do it. The Titans were a mess this year, I think there's still a lot of room for optimism going forward.


Rookie TE Report: Week 18

Looking for:
Yards per Game - 20+
Catch Percentage - 68%+
Yards per Target - 8+
Games played - 9+

These criteria may help identify future studs at the TE position. Until last year, only 11 players had qualified for this list since 1995, with most of them being either studs or promising players. Chigoziem Okonkwo became the 12th player added to this list last year.


- Tucker Kraft. Buy buy buy!

- It should be noted LaPorta's YPR is 10.3, which is pretty good, so his lower YPT might not be as meaningful as say Kincaid's, whose YPR is only 9.2. Mayers YPR is 11.3.

Tucker Kraft [OpenScore: 46]
20 YPG
77% Catch Percentage
8.9 YPT

Sam LaPorta [OpenScore: 52]
52 YPG
71% Catch Percentage
7.4 YPT

Dalton Kincaid [OpenScore: 62]
42 YPG
80% Catch Percentage
7.4 YPT

Michael Mayer [OpenScore: 52]
21 YPG
67% Catch Percentage
7.6 YPT

Luke Musgrave [OpenScore: 57]
21 YPG
73% Catch Percentage
7.6 YPT


_______________________________________

I acted on this report and i just bought Kraft for essentially the 3.04 and Davis Allen. The other owner needed me to send him the 3.10 for the 4.2 and 4.7 in order to get it done, and the late pick swap felt like a wash to me. Would love to get any feedback on how folks think I did; for the rebuild in sig

[81-]

- The only TE to hit all the thresholds this season is Tucker Kraft. I think it's hard to say he should be valued over the other TE's, but I do think it makes him a strong buy as his price would be the cheapest. He's a more prototypical TE (in size) than Chig was.
- Chig didn't have the year many thought but he actually did improve from his rookie year. I think he's also a strong buy still at his price. Elite TE's typically break out in year 2 or 3, so Chig still has 1 year to go to do it. The Titans were a mess this year, I think there's still a lot of room for optimism going forward.


Rookie TE Report: Week 18

Looking for:
Yards per Game - 20+
Catch Percentage - 68%+
Yards per Target - 8+
Games played - 9+

These criteria may help identify future studs at the TE position. Until last year, only 11 players had qualified for this list since 1995, with most of them being either studs or promising players. Chigoziem Okonkwo became the 12th player added to this list last year.


- Tucker Kraft. Buy buy buy!

- It should be noted LaPorta's YPR is 10.3, which is pretty good, so his lower YPT might not be as meaningful as say Kincaid's, whose YPR is only 9.2. Mayers YPR is 11.3.

Tucker Kraft [OpenScore: 46]
20 YPG
77% Catch Percentage
8.9 YPT

Sam LaPorta [OpenScore: 52]
52 YPG
71% Catch Percentage
7.4 YPT

Dalton Kincaid [OpenScore: 62]
42 YPG
80% Catch Percentage
7.4 YPT

Michael Mayer [OpenScore: 52]
21 YPG
67% Catch Percentage
7.6 YPT

Luke Musgrave [OpenScore: 57]
21 YPG
73% Catch Percentage
7.6 YPT


_______________________________________

I acted on this report and i just bought Kraft for essentially the 3.04 and Davis Allen. The other owner needed me to send him the 3.10 for the 4.2 and 4.7 in order to get it done, and the late pick swap felt like a wash to me. Would love to get any feedback on how folks think I did; for the rebuild in sig

If you are happy I am happy
All those picks are crap shoots... So win

[wickerkat1212]

I have Kraft in 3/4 leagues. Fingers crossed!

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I acted on this report and i just bought Kraft for essentially the 3.04 and Davis Allen. The other owner needed me to send him the 3.10 for the 4.2 and 4.7 in order to get it done, and the late pick swap felt like a wash to me. Would love to get any feedback on how folks think I did; for the rebuild in sig

I think your trade is fine.

I’ve also been trying to scoop up Kraft. In a non-TE premium league, I sent the 3.07 straight up to get Kraft. Which, any type of hit with a 3rd round pick is a win, and Kraft has a seemingly high probability of hitting… at least more so than a random 3rd rounder.

The second trade was in a 2PPR TE Premium league, so big big bonus to TEs. I sent Josh Downs + 3.10 to receive Kraft. I was deep at wr and was looking to sell Downs so I also think this worked out in my favor.

In a different 2PPR for TE league, I offered the 2.12 for Kraft and was rejected with no counter.

The silly part is I had drafted Kraft in rookie drafts in nearly all my league leagues, but dropped him in most when Musgrave was doing well and Kraft hadn’t done anything yet. I think he and Musgrave will continue to battle it out for the short term but I think Kraft is a good long term asset with high TE1 potential if handed the reigns at some point.

[Shcritters]

I acted on this report and i just bought Kraft for essentially the 3.04 and Davis Allen. The other owner needed me to send him the 3.10 for the 4.2 and 4.7 in order to get it done, and the late pick swap felt like a wash to me. Would love to get any feedback on how folks think I did; for the rebuild in sig

I think your trade is fine.

I’ve also been trying to scoop up Kraft. In a non-TE premium league, I sent the 3.07 straight up to get Kraft. Which, any type of hit with a 3rd round pick is a win, and Kraft has a seemingly high probability of hitting… at least more so than a random 3rd rounder.

The second trade was in a 2PPR TE Premium league, so big big bonus to TEs. I sent Josh Downs + 3.10 to receive Kraft. I was deep at wr and was looking to sell Downs so I also think this worked out in my favor.

In a different 2PPR for TE league, I offered the 2.12 for Kraft and was rejected with no counter.

The silly part is I had drafted Kraft in rookie drafts in nearly all my league leagues, but dropped him in most when Musgrave was doing well and Kraft hadn’t done anything yet. I think he and Musgrave will continue to battle it out for the short term but I think Kraft is a good long term asset with high TE1 potential if handed the reigns at some point.

It feels like one of them will need to leave GB before both of them become ‘the guy’ (one in GB and one elsewhere), but in case Musgrave goes down (which seems to happen a lot) Kraft is poised to be a TE1 in fantasy. Of course there are 6 different pass catchers in GB who could be a WR1/TE1 any given week… and good luck figuring out who it will be.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

People are finally beginning to catch on

https://x.com/ff_travism/status/1775227 ... Y7TpDzV9jg

[TheTroll]

People are finally beginning to catch on

https://x.com/ff_travism/status/1775227 ... Y7TpDzV9jg

3 of the 4 LSU guys

[Jigga94]

People are finally beginning to catch on

https://x.com/ff_travism/status/1775227 ... Y7TpDzV9jg

Reddit keeps spewing this 525 rule or 575, idk they cant decide which they like more. Basically the ugly step child of YPG

[yinzername]

People are finally beginning to catch on

https://x.com/ff_travism/status/1775227 ... Y7TpDzV9jg

Reddit keeps spewing this 525 rule or 575, idk they cant decide which they like more. Basically the ugly step child of YPG

More like the abusive stepfather of YPG

[Dynasty DeLorean]

People are finally beginning to catch on

https://x.com/ff_travism/status/1775227 ... Y7TpDzV9jg

Reddit keeps spewing this 525 rule or 575, idk they cant decide which they like more. Basically the ugly step child of YPG

lol.

[BabyChark23]

I know this is the 2023 rookie WR thread, but I’m curious what your opinion is of the top 3 2024 rookie WR prospects, DD.

[Orenthal Shames]

Where did we land on Downs? He seems to be on the edge of good/bad/hold. I moved one share, but still have a few.

I love his production rates, but is he going to get enough opportunity with Richardson under center? If Minshew hadn’t been the QB for a greater part of the season he might have only had 50-60 targets. I just don’t see where a HC is going to rely on Richardson’s passing to lead his offense given that his job is on the line.

Matt Harmon graded him really highly after his rookie season. I'm cautiously optimistic.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I know this is the 2023 rookie WR thread, but I’m curious what your opinion is of the top 3 2024 rookie WR prospects, DD.

MHJ - no testing and I’ve watched no film. I watched part of a highlight video and didn’t see anything amazing for what it’s worth. Probably will be red flagged by Valhalla due to BMI concerns. I myself am not a fan of a player skipping the entire process.

Nabers - watched his 2022 film before last season, which I thought looked fantastic. Great numbers, great testing, great projected draft capital. Easily worth a top pick

Odunze - No film watched but great production, size, athleticism, and projected draft capital. Should be easily worth a top pick assuming film is also good (which it should be re: reception perception)

My opinion on the class at this moment is if you want a wr, trade down and take the cheapest of the 3. That opinion could change.