Rookie WR Production 2023

[Bronco Billy]

1.09-1.11
(admittedly, I'm a little lower on him than most.)

The meatloaf or JSN?

[mild]

Hey kicking the tires on JSN, we like what we see? Where do we put him in this years 1QB rookie draft, 1.04? Later?

Definitely a buy if you liked his profile and the owner is getting worried, and you want to bet on a very good talent.

On the one hand, there are reasons to remember why we had overall optimism:



On the other hand, the new hiring of Ryan Grubb has some major question marks. Namely:

- Was Washington's extreme downfield air-out attack a result of Penix wanting to play this way, or that being Grubb's identity via the scheme
- Geno's natural tendency is to attack downfield aggressively
- DK benefits the most from an aggressive down-field mindset
- Arguably Lockett profiles better from that perspective too

So it's a question of usage within the new scheme, and we aren't going to have the answers until kickoff 2024.

[wickerkat1212]

I'm still all-in on JSN, and will be for at least two more year no matter what.

[MacDaddy123]

I'm still all-in on JSN, and will be for at least two more year no matter what.

Interesting. I have one share of JSN left, and I plan to hold unless the right offer comes along.
In my other leagues, I have no intention of trying to buy JSN, because IMO, his price is still too high for what he has produced.

I am well aware of the list of excuses for the poor rookie season.
Same could be said about Bryce Young. I'm not really looking to buy either.

[yinzername]

I'm still all-in on JSN, and will be for at least two more year no matter what.

JSN or not, this is just such a questionable mindset for DFF

I'm low on JSN. I'd take the 2.01 for him easy. But I don't have any shares, not purposefully, just didn't work out that way in my drasfts last year. I would have drafted him at consensus, just like everyone else. But in retrsopect, he's the kind of guy worth getting out on if there's an offer you like. I've said all this already (and usually get panned), but there's enough question marks where I'd rather be wrong and see him thrive somewhere else, than be right and have him sink value on my team. JSN could be a quintessential discussion point for sunk cost fallacy come this time next year. I hope he does well for the holders, I'm on the side of the sellers

[mild]

I'm still all-in on JSN, and will be for at least two more year no matter what.

JSN or not, this is just such a questionable mindset for DFF

I don't think any of us really come here to take Wicker's advice to be fair.

Obviously, every manager is fit to run their roster as they see fit - but yes, doubling down on a take and ruling out the ability to change your mind and be flexible when presented with new information (what DFF is truly about) is how you get take-locked into trouble.

(Y'know... kinda like thinking the Bears wouldn't come last in the NFC North again and starting a thread about it...)

[wickerkat1212]

I'm still all-in on JSN, and will be for at least two more year no matter what.

JSN or not, this is just such a questionable mindset for DFF

I don't think any of us really come here to take Wicker's advice to be fair.

Obviously, every manager is fit to run their roster as they see fit - but yes, doubling down on a take and ruling out the ability to change your mind and be flexible when presented with new information (what DFF is truly about) is how you get take-locked into trouble.

(Y'know... kinda like thinking the Bears wouldn't come last in the NFC North again and starting a thread about it...)

4/5 of my teams were on byes, in the playoffs. So, I'm not a total idiot. All I'm saying is that I'm going to give JSN time. I'm not going to bail on a guy after one inconsistent rookie year. So yes, I'm still in on him no matter what. And no, I wouldn't take a 2.01 for him now. It's way too early to bail. OF COURSE there could be information where I'd move him, or an offer I wouldn't refuse. All I'm saying is it seems people are pretty eager to move on, or sell as a reduced rate. There were a lot of variables last year.

[Mike11]

I'm still all-in on JSN, and will be for at least two more year no matter what.

JSN or not, this is just such a questionable mindset for DFF

I'm low on JSN. I'd take the 2.01 for him easy. But I don't have any shares, not purposefully, just didn't work out that way in my drasfts last year. I would have drafted him at consensus, just like everyone else. But in retrsopect, he's the kind of guy worth getting out on if there's an offer you like. I've said all this already (and usually get panned), but there's enough question marks where I'd rather be wrong and see him thrive somewhere else, than be right and have him sink value on my team. JSN could be a quintessential discussion point for sunk cost fallacy come this time next year. I hope he does well for the holders, I'm on the side of the sellers

Already said this a couple of pages back but I agree with this. Tons of super stubborn owners, I don’t like what I saw year one. He can still become good but historically he’s probably never going to be a top 10 / 15 guy which is what people paid for him to be. Hes going to be the guy that costs more than what he produces when you can have cheaper options like Pittman who actually produce. Thats where I feel like this is going because people are still mostly hoarding their JSN shares like they’re sitting on a secret pot of gold.

The market is at an impasse, anyone who doesn’t own him won’t pay the still high price it costs to get him. Don’t think a buy low exists the way some people would want to buy for the risk/cost of him.

[wickerkat1212]

I'm still all-in on JSN, and will be for at least two more year no matter what.

JSN or not, this is just such a questionable mindset for DFF

I'm low on JSN. I'd take the 2.01 for him easy. But I don't have any shares, not purposefully, just didn't work out that way in my drasfts last year. I would have drafted him at consensus, just like everyone else. But in retrsopect, he's the kind of guy worth getting out on if there's an offer you like. I've said all this already (and usually get panned), but there's enough question marks where I'd rather be wrong and see him thrive somewhere else, than be right and have him sink value on my team. JSN could be a quintessential discussion point for sunk cost fallacy come this time next year. I hope he does well for the holders, I'm on the side of the sellers

Already said this a couple of pages back but I agree with this. Tons of super stubborn owners, I don’t like what I saw year one. He can still become good but historically he’s probably never going to be a top 10 / 15 guy which is what people paid for him to be. Hes going to be the guy that costs more than what he produces when you can have cheaper options like Pittman who actually produce. Thats where I feel like this is going because people are still mostly hoarding their JSN shares like they’re sitting on a secret pot of gold.

The market is at an impasse, anyone who doesn’t own him won’t pay the still high price it costs to get him. Don’t think a buy low exists the way some people would want to buy for the risk/cost of him.

Sometimes it's the situation. DK and Lockett were ahead of him so at best he was the third target. When Lockett moves on I think he takes over as WR2. For me, personally, I wouldn't take a 2nd round pick for him. I probably wouldn't take a late 1st for him in 1 QB either. Who am I going to take there? And he's probably not going to get a top seven pick so I'm holding. I want to give him more time. His last five games he was starting to emerge. WR45 on the year, WR32 last five games. IDK if he'll be that elite WR1 that we all though, too much up in the air, still, but I think he's a starter, with the CHANCE to become a very strong WR2, with WR1 flashes.

I'm not against moving on from a player. I got three shares of Pitts, and moved them all to get Bijan because I lost faith that he could become a TE1. He may actually have a shot NOW, but I got rid of him. IDK if people VALUE JSN the way they did. He set college records for most receptions in a game (15) and yardage in a season (1,606) so I'm still very much in on JSN.

[Bronco Billy]

He set college records for most receptions in a game (15) and yardage in a season (1,606) so I'm still very much in on JSN.

He did neither. He’s tied for 42nd in college history for most receiving yards in a season and the record for receptions in a game is 23.

“When the legend becomes fact, print the legend.”

[wickerkat1212]

Sorry, SCHOOL records, my bad. I grabbed that from Wiki didn't mean to imply NCAA. But I thought he was the receptions leader one year.

"Jaxon Smith-Njigba (/ɪnˈdʒɪɡbə/ in-JIG-bə; born February 14, 2002) is an American football wide receiver for the Seattle Seahawks of the National Football League (NFL). He played college football at Ohio State, where he set school records for most catches in a single game with 15 (twice) and most receiving yards in a single season with 1,606 in 2021. Smith-Njigba was selected 20th overall by the Seahawks in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft."

[Bronco Billy]

JSN or not, this is just such a questionable mindset for DFF

I'm low on JSN. I'd take the 2.01 for him easy. But I don't have any shares, not purposefully, just didn't work out that way in my drasfts last year. I would have drafted him at consensus, just like everyone else. But in retrsopect, he's the kind of guy worth getting out on if there's an offer you like. I've said all this already (and usually get panned), but there's enough question marks where I'd rather be wrong and see him thrive somewhere else, than be right and have him sink value on my team. JSN could be a quintessential discussion point for sunk cost fallacy come this time next year. I hope he does well for the holders, I'm on the side of the sellers

Already said this a couple of pages back but I agree with this. Tons of super stubborn owners, I don’t like what I saw year one. He can still become good but historically he’s probably never going to be a top 10 / 15 guy which is what people paid for him to be. Hes going to be the guy that costs more than what he produces when you can have cheaper options like Pittman who actually produce. Thats where I feel like this is going because people are still mostly hoarding their JSN shares like they’re sitting on a secret pot of gold.

The market is at an impasse, anyone who doesn’t own him won’t pay the still high price it costs to get him. Don’t think a buy low exists the way some people would want to buy for the risk/cost of him.

Sometimes it's the situation. DK and Lockett were ahead of him so at best he was the third target. When Lockett moves on I think he takes over as WR2. For me, personally, I wouldn't take a 2nd round pick for him. I probably wouldn't take a late 1st for him in 1 QB either. Who am I going to take there? And he's probably not going to get a top seven pick so I'm holding. I want to give him more time. His last five games he was starting to emerge. WR45 on the year, WR32 last five games. IDK if he'll be that elite WR1 that we all though, too much up in the air, still, but I think he's a starter, with the CHANCE to become a very strong WR2, with WR1 flashes.

At least now you’re making a strong argument. Right now draft capital and college stats mean nothing. He’s got a year in the NFL under his belt. Those are moot arguments. He has a NFL resume.

I said before the draft that I projected him as a reliable midrange WR2 in FF. That has value to a FF team, if that is a close to reasonable projection that means he’s around a top 20 FF WR. So if you believe that, I have a hard time with trading that away for the 2.01 unknown rookie. As I’ve stated before more than a few times, the unreasonable expectation that anything less than drafting a FF WR1 is failure is clearly a fallacy.

[wickerkat1212]

Where did we land on Downs? He seems to be on the edge of good/bad/hold. I moved one share, but still have a few.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Where did we land on Downs? He seems to be on the edge of good/bad/hold. I moved one share, but still have a few.

I’ve been trying to move downs, with little success. Basically, potential trade partners have agreed he’s worth an early-mid 2nd, but none have been willing to pay it. I started asking for early-mid 2nd + 3rd. Haven’t found a buyer yet and probably won’t bc rookie picks are only going to get more hyped up. Probably best course is wait until he has a big game next year and then sell.

With all trade advice, just remember try to get multiple picks/players back in return. Nobody knows how any of these guys will pan out so just accumulate as many shots as you can.

[wickerkat1212]

Where did we land on Downs? He seems to be on the edge of good/bad/hold. I moved one share, but still have a few.

I’ve been trying to move downs, with little success. Basically, potential trade partners have agreed he’s worth an early-mid 2nd, but none have been willing to pay it. I started asking for early-mid 2nd + 3rd. Haven’t found a buyer yet and probably won’t bc rookie picks are only going to get more hyped up. Probably best course is wait until he has a big game next year and then sell.

With all trade advice, just remember try to get multiple picks/players back in return. Nobody knows how any of these guys will pan out so just accumulate as many shots as you can.

Yeah, that's where I am. Was debating moving him in a Superflex so I wanted to see where his value was. If we're looking the analytics in this thread he's not a hold.