McCaffrey Value and Outlook

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gogobradyarm
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McCaffrey Value and Outlook

Postby gogobradyarm » Fri Sep 22, 2023 11:50 pm

At 27 years old, McCaffrey has a perfect situation and is mega productive. Let’s talk value and outlook…

1) For a contender, what is the max price to pay?
2) For a rebuilder, what are you selling for?
3) How many RB1 seasons will he have?

Value: I personally am considering an offer from a seller, to put my sig team over the top… offer is two firsts and LaPorta, but seems very rich. I feel his value is closer two two firsts.

Outlook: I see this year and next as elite RB seasons, but after that I think we’ll see CMC turn into a third down back.

Looking forward to your input!
12 Team - PPR - 30man (2 IR) - 6pt PPTD- 1 QB - 2 RB - 2 WR - 1 Flex - 1 TE
QB: Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Anthony Richardson, Aidan O'Connell
RB: McCaffrey, Jacobs, Barkley, Zamir White, Jaleel McLaughlin, Dowdle, Zach Evans, Dobbins
WR: AJB, London, Aiyuk, Diontae Johnson, Rashee Rice, Ridley, McLaurin, Dotson, Rashod Bateman
TE: Mandrews, Pitts, Likely, Otton

2024: 1.01, 1.07
2025: 3x 1st
Champ: 2020, 2021
Year 9 of my league

trc
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Re: McCaffrey Value and Outlook

Postby trc » Sat Sep 23, 2023 2:13 am

gogobradyarm wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2023 11:50 pm At 27 years old, McCaffrey has a perfect situation and is mega productive. Let’s talk value and outlook…

1) For a contender, what is the max price to pay?
2) For a rebuilder, what are you selling for?
3) How many RB1 seasons will he have?

Value: I personally am considering an offer from a seller, to put my sig team over the top… offer is two firsts and LaPorta, but seems very rich. I feel his value is closer two two firsts.

Outlook: I see this year and next as elite RB seasons, but after that I think we’ll see CMC turn into a third down back.

Looking forward to your input!
I still see him as a tier 2 dynasty asset, in the same tier as Garett Wilson, AJ Brown etc.
In that context 2 random 1sts seems light (1 is expected late?).

However there really isn't that big of a market for that kind of player (Top producing RB at 27 years), in every league I usually see 1 or 2 teams that could actually need him and have a willingness to trade for him.

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Re: McCaffrey Value and Outlook

Postby Bronco Billy » Sat Sep 23, 2023 5:20 am

trc wrote: Sat Sep 23, 2023 2:13 am
gogobradyarm wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2023 11:50 pm At 27 years old, McCaffrey has a perfect situation and is mega productive. Let’s talk value and outlook…

1) For a contender, what is the max price to pay?
2) For a rebuilder, what are you selling for?
3) How many RB1 seasons will he have?

Value: I personally am considering an offer from a seller, to put my sig team over the top… offer is two firsts and LaPorta, but seems very rich. I feel his value is closer two two firsts.

Outlook: I see this year and next as elite RB seasons, but after that I think we’ll see CMC turn into a third down back.

Looking forward to your input!
I still see him as a tier 2 dynasty asset, in the same tier as Garett Wilson, AJ Brown etc.
In that context 2 random 1sts seems light (1 is expected late?).

However there really isn't that big of a market for that kind of player (Top producing RB at 27 years), in every league I usually see 1 or 2 teams that could actually need him and have a willingness to trade for him.
Tier 2? He’s the current RB3 ppg in our league with great consistency, while the 2 RBs above him are already missing games. He’s a perfect fit in the SF O, runs well inside and out, is great as a receiver and is even a solid blocker. He’s got a good RB2 on the roster that doesn’t give large dropoff so he won’t be worked into the ground while he’s scoring the way he does.

If this guy is a tier 2 asset, I’m seriously unsure how a player becomes tier 1.

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Re: McCaffrey Value and Outlook

Postby CGW » Sat Sep 23, 2023 5:24 am

Bronco Billy wrote: Sat Sep 23, 2023 5:20 am
trc wrote: Sat Sep 23, 2023 2:13 am
gogobradyarm wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2023 11:50 pm At 27 years old, McCaffrey has a perfect situation and is mega productive. Let’s talk value and outlook…

1) For a contender, what is the max price to pay?
2) For a rebuilder, what are you selling for?
3) How many RB1 seasons will he have?

Value: I personally am considering an offer from a seller, to put my sig team over the top… offer is two firsts and LaPorta, but seems very rich. I feel his value is closer two two firsts.

Outlook: I see this year and next as elite RB seasons, but after that I think we’ll see CMC turn into a third down back.

Looking forward to your input!
I still see him as a tier 2 dynasty asset, in the same tier as Garett Wilson, AJ Brown etc.
In that context 2 random 1sts seems light (1 is expected late?).

However there really isn't that big of a market for that kind of player (Top producing RB at 27 years), in every league I usually see 1 or 2 teams that could actually need him and have a willingness to trade for him.
Tier 2? He’s the current RB3 ppg in our league with great consistency, while the 2 RBs above him are already missing games. He’s a perfect fit in the SF O, runs well inside and out, is great as a receiver and is even a solid blocker. He’s got a good RB2 on the roster that doesn’t give large dropoff so he won’t be worked into the ground while he’s scoring the way he does.

If this guy is a tier 2 asset, I’m seriously unsure how a player becomes tier 1.
By being JJ.

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Re: McCaffrey Value and Outlook

Postby Bronco Billy » Sat Sep 23, 2023 5:32 am

CGW wrote: Sat Sep 23, 2023 5:24 am
Bronco Billy wrote: Sat Sep 23, 2023 5:20 am
trc wrote: Sat Sep 23, 2023 2:13 am

I still see him as a tier 2 dynasty asset, in the same tier as Garett Wilson, AJ Brown etc.
In that context 2 random 1sts seems light (1 is expected late?).

However there really isn't that big of a market for that kind of player (Top producing RB at 27 years), in every league I usually see 1 or 2 teams that could actually need him and have a willingness to trade for him.
Tier 2? He’s the current RB3 ppg in our league with great consistency, while the 2 RBs above him are already missing games. He’s a perfect fit in the SF O, runs well inside and out, is great as a receiver and is even a solid blocker. He’s got a good RB2 on the roster that doesn’t give large dropoff so he won’t be worked into the ground while he’s scoring the way he does.

If this guy is a tier 2 asset, I’m seriously unsure how a player becomes tier 1.
By being JJ.
OK, if tiers are 1 player large then I can get onboard with McCaffrey being tier 2.

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Re: McCaffrey Value and Outlook

Postby CGW » Sat Sep 23, 2023 5:39 am

Bronco Billy wrote: Sat Sep 23, 2023 5:32 am
CGW wrote: Sat Sep 23, 2023 5:24 am
Bronco Billy wrote: Sat Sep 23, 2023 5:20 am

Tier 2? He’s the current RB3 ppg in our league with great consistency, while the 2 RBs above him are already missing games. He’s a perfect fit in the SF O, runs well inside and out, is great as a receiver and is even a solid blocker. He’s got a good RB2 on the roster that doesn’t give large dropoff so he won’t be worked into the ground while he’s scoring the way he does.

If this guy is a tier 2 asset, I’m seriously unsure how a player becomes tier 1.
By being JJ.
OK, if tiers are 1 player large then I can get onboard with McCaffrey being tier 2.
Would you trade chase or lamb for CMC straight up? How about Bijan? I think tier 1 is the unicorn tier. Young and productive studs. CMC just doesn't have the longevity factory remaining to be lumped with those 3. But darn close just because of the advantage he gives contenders.

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Re: McCaffrey Value and Outlook

Postby Bronco Billy » Sat Sep 23, 2023 5:52 am

CGW wrote: Sat Sep 23, 2023 5:39 am
Bronco Billy wrote: Sat Sep 23, 2023 5:32 am
CGW wrote: Sat Sep 23, 2023 5:24 am

By being JJ.
OK, if tiers are 1 player large then I can get onboard with McCaffrey being tier 2.
Would you trade chase or lamb for CMC straight up? How about Bijan? I think tier 1 is the unicorn tier. Young and productive studs. CMC just doesn't have the longevity factory remaining to be lumped with those 3. But darn close just because of the advantage he gives contenders.
Oh, I think CMC belongs in the unicorn tier. You posed a really interesting scenario that likely is very subjective depending upon a team’s current makeup and relative strength within the league.

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Re: McCaffrey Value and Outlook

Postby CGW » Sat Sep 23, 2023 6:05 am

Bronco Billy wrote: Sat Sep 23, 2023 5:52 am
CGW wrote: Sat Sep 23, 2023 5:39 am
Bronco Billy wrote: Sat Sep 23, 2023 5:32 am

OK, if tiers are 1 player large then I can get onboard with McCaffrey being tier 2.
Would you trade chase or lamb for CMC straight up? How about Bijan? I think tier 1 is the unicorn tier. Young and productive studs. CMC just doesn't have the longevity factory remaining to be lumped with those 3. But darn close just because of the advantage he gives contenders.
Oh, I think CMC belongs in the unicorn tier. You posed a really interesting scenario that likely is very subjective depending upon a team’s current makeup and relative strength within the league.
Seems like semantics to me. Production wise there is obviously going to be no separation. The only reason CMC is worth less than the three I mentioned above is because he's only valuable to a contending team, while JJ, Chase, and Bijan are covetted by darn near 100% of fantasy managers.

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Re: McCaffrey Value and Outlook

Postby Bronco Billy » Sat Sep 23, 2023 6:33 am

CGW wrote: Sat Sep 23, 2023 6:05 am
Bronco Billy wrote: Sat Sep 23, 2023 5:52 am
CGW wrote: Sat Sep 23, 2023 5:39 am

Would you trade chase or lamb for CMC straight up? How about Bijan? I think tier 1 is the unicorn tier. Young and productive studs. CMC just doesn't have the longevity factory remaining to be lumped with those 3. But darn close just because of the advantage he gives contenders.
Oh, I think CMC belongs in the unicorn tier. You posed a really interesting scenario that likely is very subjective depending upon a team’s current makeup and relative strength within the league.
Seems like semantics to me. Production wise there is obviously going to be no separation. The only reason CMC is worth less than the three I mentioned above is because he's only valuable to a contending team, while JJ, Chase, and Bijan are covetted by darn near 100% of fantasy managers.
You completely lost me on the bolded. Guess we’ll have to agree to disagree.

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Re: McCaffrey Value and Outlook

Postby CGW » Sat Sep 23, 2023 6:46 am

Bronco Billy wrote: Sat Sep 23, 2023 6:33 am
CGW wrote: Sat Sep 23, 2023 6:05 am
Bronco Billy wrote: Sat Sep 23, 2023 5:52 am

Oh, I think CMC belongs in the unicorn tier. You posed a really interesting scenario that likely is very subjective depending upon a team’s current makeup and relative strength within the league.
Seems like semantics to me. Production wise there is obviously going to be no separation. The only reason CMC is worth less than the three I mentioned above is because he's only valuable to a contending team, while JJ, Chase, and Bijan are covetted by darn near 100% of fantasy managers.
You completely lost me on the bolded. Guess we’ll have to agree to disagree.
I'm not sure we disagree on anything. I'm attempting to explain why he doesnt have the same value as the top 3 (JJ, Chase, and Bijan). But also not sure it really matters?

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Re: McCaffrey Value and Outlook

Postby trc » Sat Sep 23, 2023 7:36 am

Bronco Billy wrote: Sat Sep 23, 2023 5:20 am
trc wrote: Sat Sep 23, 2023 2:13 am
gogobradyarm wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2023 11:50 pm At 27 years old, McCaffrey has a perfect situation and is mega productive. Let’s talk value and outlook…

1) For a contender, what is the max price to pay?
2) For a rebuilder, what are you selling for?
3) How many RB1 seasons will he have?

Value: I personally am considering an offer from a seller, to put my sig team over the top… offer is two firsts and LaPorta, but seems very rich. I feel his value is closer two two firsts.

Outlook: I see this year and next as elite RB seasons, but after that I think we’ll see CMC turn into a third down back.

Looking forward to your input!
I still see him as a tier 2 dynasty asset, in the same tier as Garett Wilson, AJ Brown etc.
In that context 2 random 1sts seems light (1 is expected late?).

However there really isn't that big of a market for that kind of player (Top producing RB at 27 years), in every league I usually see 1 or 2 teams that could actually need him and have a willingness to trade for him.
Tier 2? He’s the current RB3 ppg in our league with great consistency, while the 2 RBs above him are already missing games. He’s a perfect fit in the SF O, runs well inside and out, is great as a receiver and is even a solid blocker. He’s got a good RB2 on the roster that doesn’t give large dropoff so he won’t be worked into the ground while he’s scoring the way he does.

If this guy is a tier 2 asset, I’m seriously unsure how a player becomes tier 1.
Already been laid out, dynasty wise I would rather have JJ, Chase and Bijan. Tier break.

I don’t think our value of him differ all that much.

And we both likely agree 2 1sts for him is light?

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Re: McCaffrey Value and Outlook

Postby dipANDglide » Sat Sep 23, 2023 12:50 pm

trc wrote: Sat Sep 23, 2023 2:13 am
gogobradyarm wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2023 11:50 pm At 27 years old, McCaffrey has a perfect situation and is mega productive. Let’s talk value and outlook…

1) For a contender, what is the max price to pay?
2) For a rebuilder, what are you selling for?
3) How many RB1 seasons will he have?

Value: I personally am considering an offer from a seller, to put my sig team over the top… offer is two firsts and LaPorta, but seems very rich. I feel his value is closer two two firsts.

Outlook: I see this year and next as elite RB seasons, but after that I think we’ll see CMC turn into a third down back.

Looking forward to your input!
I still see him as a tier 2 dynasty asset, in the same tier as Garett Wilson, AJ Brown etc.
In that context 2 random 1sts seems light (1 is expected late?).

However there really isn't that big of a market for that kind of player (Top producing RB at 27 years), in every league I usually see 1 or 2 teams that could actually need him and have a willingness to trade for him.
+1 Great reply


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